Sylvester Stallone returns to his second most popular signature role for the fifth time next weekend in Rambo: LastBlood. Arriving 37 years after FirstBlood, the pic finds the aging vet battling a Mexican drug cartel after they kidnap a friend’s daughter. Adrian Grunberg directs with Paz Vega, Sergio Peris-Mencheta, and Adriana Barraza among the costars.
It’s been nearly 12 years since the character graced the silver screen and Rambo earned $18.2 million for starters back in early 2008. Since then, Stallone had a resurgence with his Rocky character with Creed and its sequel. His increased visibility and a nostalgia factor could help this outperform part 4.
To hit the best debut of the franchise, this would need to top the $20.1 million made by 1985’s Rambo: FirstBloodPartII. Worth noting is that its number is not adjusted for inflation.
There is some competition in the form of Brad Pitt’s AdAstra, but I’ll say Blood gets the better of it and barely manages to set that unadjusted record.
Rambo: LastBlood opening weekend prediction: $20.4 million
Mr. Pitt goes to space next weekend in James Gray’s AdAstra and the reported $80 million plus budgeted sci fi pic hopes for a stealthy launch. Brad Pitt is an astronaut who leaves Earth to find his lost father (Tommy Lee Jones). Costars include Ruth Negga, Liv Tyler, and Donald Sutherland.
Astra premiered last month at the Venice Film Festival to mostly positive critical reaction. It stands at 86% on Rotten Tomatoes, but seems to lack the awards buzz that could help its grosses. Competition for male moviegoers could be hindered a bit by the opening of Rambo: LastBlood.
A debut above $20 million is certainly feasible and Pitt is fresh off Quentin Tarantino’s hit OnceUponaTimeinHollywood, which is earning him Oscar chatter. However, I’ll say high teens is where this lands with a similar number to last fall’s FirstMan.
ItChapterTwo looks to stay atop the charts as Hustlers could surprisingly give it a run for its money. We also have John Crowley’s drama TheGoldfinch with Ansel Elgort and Nicole Kidman debuting. Both newbies premiered at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend to vastly differing results. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Hustlers has been showered with major critical acclaim and reviews suggesting costar Jennifer Lopez could be in line for her first Oscar nomination. I believe it has a legitimate chance at hitting $30 million or over, but I’m putting it just a tad under. We shall see if this gets revised up as buzz continues to build.
TheGoldfinch had the opposite reaction. It looked like Oscar bait (unlike Hustlers), but critics have not been kind. My estimate for it has steadily dwindled down. It should secure third place, but with a quiet start.
Pennywise’s return to the silver screen opened on the lower end of expectations. Our first It chapter dipped 51% in its sophomore frame. I believe the sequel will experience a drop more in the mid 50s range.
And with that, my take on the top five:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Hustlers
Predicted Gross: $31.5 million
3. TheGoldfinch
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
4. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (September6–8)
ItChapterTwo dominated our first autumn movie weekend. The lengthy horror sequel took in $91 million. As mentioned, that is at the lower end of projections and below my take of $109.7 million. The pic still managed to grab the second biggest September haul and #2 overall horror starting gross of all time behind… It (which floated to $123.4 million out of the gate).
AngelHasFallen was second with $5.9 million. My prediction? $5.9 million! Total is $53 million.
GoodBoys took third at $5.4 million (I said $4.9 million) and it stands at a solid $66 million.
TheLionKing was fourth with $4.3 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for an overall massive tally of $529 million.
Hobbs&Shaw rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, ahead of my $3 million forecast. It’s up to $164 million.
Based on a 2013 novel by Donna Tartt that elicited mixed reaction, TheGoldfinch arrives in theaters next weekend. The drama is director John Crowley’s follow up to his Oscar nominated 2015 effort Brooklyn. Ansel Elgort headlines with a supporting cast that includes Oakes Fegley, Aneurin Barnard, Finn Wolfhard (currently also costarring in ItChapterTwo), Sarah Paulson, Luke Wilson, Jeffrey Wright, and Nicole Kidman.
The film will have its premiere this weekend at the Toronto Film Festival. Interestingly, it skipped both Telluride and Venice. Those earlier screenings could have provided the opportunity for any awards chatter and I’m curious to see if Warner Bros knew that might not materialize.
For those unfamiliar with the source material, I’ve found the trailers to be a bit too mysterious and a tad lackluster. We’ll see if reviews this weekend could possibly change the dynamic, but I currently see TheGoldfinch struggling to reach double digits. That unimpressive result would put it in third place behind the aforementioned It sequel and Hustlers.
TheGoldfinch opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million
A group of actresses, many also known for their musical talents, play exotic dancers who take on wealthy Wall Street men in the dramedy Hustlers next weekend. Lorene Scafaria directs a cast led by Constance Wu (in his first big film role since breakout CrazyRichAsians), Jennifer Lopez, Keke Palmer, Julia Stiles, Cardi B, Lili Reinhart, and Lizzo.
Based on a 2015 NewYork magazine article, Hustlers looks to tap into an often undeserved audience of minorities and women. It could be well positioned to do so. Wu and Lopez have their followers and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate the participation of Cardi B and Lizzo, who have consistently been producing Top 40 hits over the past few months.
The budget for the pic is reported to be between $20-$30 million and I believe that’s where the opening weekend should fall. If Hustlers tops $23 million, it would give Lopez her largest life action start ever (ahead of 2005’s Monster–in–Law). I’ll say it does and that would give it an impressive #2 debut behind the second frame of ItChapterTwo.
Hustlers opening weekend prediction: $31.5 million
It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in ItChapterTwo. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.
No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $109.7 million
2. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
3. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $3 million
BoxOfficeResults (August30–September2)
Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as AngelHasFallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.
GoodBoys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.
The summer season ruler Disney had TheLionKing in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.
Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.
Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.
Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’tLetGo tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.
ItChapterTwo will no doubt float to the top of the charts next weekend when it’s unleashed in cinemas. The Stephen King adapted horror epic continues the story of the Losers Club battling demonic clown Pennywise and hopes to rake in similar earnings to its 2017 predecessor. Andy Muschietti returns in the director’s seat with Bill Skarsgard back as Pennywise. Jaeden Martell, Sophia Lillis, Finn Wolfhard, Chosen Jacobs, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Jack Dylan Grazer, and Wyatt Oleff reprise their roles as the youthful Losers Club. Part 2 also flashes forward in time and finds James McAvoy, Jessica Chastain, Bill Hader (said to be a scene stealer), Isaiah Mustafa, Jay Ryan, James Ransone, and Andy Bean portraying their adult versions. This is the only wide release of the weekend as other studios steered clear.
It was a genuine box office phenomenon when it came out during the same post Labor Day frame two years ago. Bursting out of the gate with $123.4 million, it ended its domestic gross at just over $327 million. That made It the largest September opening of all time and highest debuting and overall earning horror feature ever.
ChapterTwo stands a real chance at breaking those records. Unlike some sequels in 2019 that followed long after previous entries, chapter one is still fresh in the minds of audiences. There’s a desire to see how it wraps up. That said, I’ll say this falls under what that creepy clown and company accomplished in 2017.
ItChapterTwo opening weekend prediction: $109.7 million
It’s Labor Day weekend as the summer movie season draws to a close. This is typically one of the more unexceptional holiday frames at the box office and 2019 should be no different. Blumhouse is putting out the supernatural thriller Don’tLetGo with David Oyelowo and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
My four-day forecast for $4.5 million for Go takes it well out of top 5 contention. Instead we should see AngelHas Fallen managing a second weekend atop the charts after it rose above expectations, including my own.
GoodBoys should stay put in second. The rest of the top five could get interesting. This past weekend, we saw numbers 3-6 separated by a mere $100k. I expect that to continue here. Worthy of note is that these holdover summer offerings often see an increase in their grosses due to the extra day.
And with that, my take on the top 5 and take note that these are Friday to Monday numbers:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
3. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $9 million
BoxOfficeResults (August23–25)
As mentioned, action threequel AngelHasFallen exceeded projections with a solid $21.3 million, easily ahead of my $15.2 million forecast. That’s only $300k under predecessor LondonHasFallen, reversing this season’s trend of follow-ups falling short of what came before.
GoodBoys was second with $11.6 million (I said $12.5 million) for a pleasing two week tally of $41 million.
Faith based sports drama Overcomer topped its entire budget in third with $8.1 million, slightly overcoming my $7.4 million prediction.
Hobbs& Shaw was fourth with $8 million, on pace with my guesstimate of $7.9 million. Total is $147 million.
TheLionKing rounded out the high five and also made $8 million (I said $7.5 million) for a massive haul of $510 million.
ReadyorNot debuted in sixth with… $8 million. The acclaimed horror comedy slashed past my $5.8 million estimate. Since its Wednesday rollout, earnings are $11 million and that’s above my $7.7 million projection.
Blumhouse Productions hopes to have a sleeper hit on their hands over Labor Day weekend with Don’tLetGo. The supernatural thriller finds David Oyelowo attempting to retroactively prevent the death of loved ones. Jacob Aaron Estes directs with a supporting cast including Storm Reid, Bryon Mann, Mykelti Williamson, Alfred Molina, and Brian Tyree Henry.
The pic premiered eight months ago at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is at 47%. That’s not a great number to generate buzz and Go appears to be lacking it. While it’s a little risky to underestimate Blumhouse, the Labor Day release date isn’t exactly a vote of confidence.
I’ll say this doesn’t manage to achieve double digits over the four day holiday weekend. Mid single digits is possibly where this goes.
Don’tLetGo opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Expect a rather sleepy weekend at the box office as the dog days of August roll along. We have three releases ahead of us as action threequel AngelHasFallen, sports themed Christian drama Overcomer, and critically hailed black comedy ReadyorNot debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
While I do have Angel flying to the top spot, I have performing under the premieres of predecessors Olympus and LondonHasFallen. I think there’s a chance it goes even lower and finds itself in a race for #1 with the second weekend of GoodBoys (which surpassed all prognoses this weekend).
Overcomer is an interesting one. It’s from the director of WarRoom, which performed spectacularly four summers ago. These faith based pics have a history to over perform, though that’s not always guaranteed. I’m giving it the five spot behind the fourth weekend of Hobbs&Shaw and sixth weekend of TheLionKing.
I am not seeking an impressive gross for ReadyorNot despite its solid reviews. It’s out on Wednesday. My $5.8 million traditional Friday to Sunday estimate and $7.7 million five-day projection leaves it outside my top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:
1. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
2. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
3. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
5. Overcomer
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
BoxOfficeResults (August16–18)
It was a frame that saw five new releases and if it wasn’t named GoodBoys, it didn’t do well. The aforementioned preteen comedy took in $21.4 million, way beyond my $14.3 million prediction. Boys is the first R rated comedy to hit #1 in over three years and it should manage to leg out decently.
Hobbs&Shaw was second with $14.1 million, a touch more than my $12.8 million estimate. It’s at $133 million.
TheLionKing took third at $12.3 million (I said $11.1 million) for a whopping $496 million overall.
TheAngryBirdsMovie2, which I said would be #1, struggled in fourth with just $10.3 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million since its Tuesday opening. That’s well below my expectations of $17.2 million and $25.4 million, respectively.
ScaryStoriestoTellintheDark rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $10 million. My prediction? $10 million! Tally is $40 million.
DoraandtheLostCityofGold mined $8.5 million in its sophomore outing for sixth (I said $9.3 million). The unimpressive total is $33 million.
47MetersDown: Uncaged was lost at sea in seventh place with $8.4 million. I was higher at $10.2 million. The shark sequel couldn’t match the $11 million plus earned by its predecessor two summers ago.
OnceUponaTimeinHollywood was eighth with $7.6 million, in line with my $7.1 million estimate. The Quentin Tarantino flick stands at $114 million.
I incorrectly had TheArtofRacingintheRain outside the top ten, but it was ninth with $4.5 million. Two-week gross is $17 million.
The Bruce Springsteen inspired dramedy BlindedbytheLight failed to find an audience in tenth with $4.3 million (I gave it more at $5.8 million).
Finally, Richard Linklater’s Where’dYouGo, Bernadette performed even weaker in 11th with a measly $3.4 million compared to my $5.6 million forecast.
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