**Blogger’s Note (12/09): National Champions is only being released on approximately 1100 screens. I am revising my projection from $3.2 million to $1.6 million.
Director Ric Roman Waugh switches from Gerard Butler action flicks to an inspirational sports drama with National Champions on December 10th. The basketball tale stars Stephan James, J.K. Simmons, Alexander Ludwig, Lil Rel Howery, Tim Blake Nelson, Andrew Bachelor, Jeffrey Donovan, David Koechner, Kristin Chenoweth, Timothy Olyphant, and Uzo Aduba.
Mr. Waugh most recently was behind the camera for Butler fests Angel Has Fallen and Greenland. His latest comes with a meager budget (a reported $9 million) and minimal buzz surrounding it. Originally slated for Thanksgiving weekend, it was pushed back two weeks.
If something like King Richard couldn’t swing a victory at the box office, that probably doesn’t bode well for this. I’ll project Champions struggles to make half its budget back (or even a third) in the opening weekend.
National Champions opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million
Coming off screenings which indicate it should play in numerous Oscar categories, Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story sashays into theaters December 10th. Arriving a year later than anticipated due to COVID, the musical romance (based on the play from Arthur Laurents, Leonard Bernstein, and the late Stephen Sondheim) stars Ansel Elgort, Rachel Zegler (in her film debut), Ariana DeBose, David Alvarez, Mike Faist, Rita Moreno, Brian d’Arcy James, and Corey Stoll. The $100 million project follows up on the 1961 classic that generated 10 Academy wins including Picture and Ms. Moreno in Supporting Actress. DeBose takes over that role and it could nab her a nomination. Same goes for Moreno (and possibly Zegler and Alvarez or Faist).
The pandemic related delay means this is Spielberg’s first behind the camera effort in nearly four years behind Ready Player One. Musicals are always a tricky proposition at the box office, but familiarity with the source material and the encouraging buzz should help. Movies geared towards adults have faced a tough road in these times, but House of Gucci proved the right project can bring in an older (and female) crowd.
It’s pretty common to see December offerings premiere with non-gaudy numbers and then leg out nicely over the season. This might be the case here. A debut of $20 million or higher seems a tad unlikely and I’ll project low to mid teens as the awards chatter could eventually get this Story close to its budget domestically.
West Side Story opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million
While the COVID era has altered the release patterns of movies in significant ways, the first weekend of December is not that unique from what we’ve seen in pre pandemic times. It will be a quieter frame filled with the holiday leftovers and no newbies out in wide release. That could mean the top five will stay the same with one probable exception.
Disney has made a habit out of releasing their animated titles over the Thanksgiving frame and that resulted in Encanto topping the holiday charts. Looking at previous Mouse Factory premieres over the past several years, Coco dropped 46% in its second frame in 2017 while Moana fell 50% the year prior. I will basically split the difference with Encanto and that means a low teens gross.
That should be enough to keep it #1 over Ghostbusters: Afterlife, which may lose about half its audience in weekend #3. House of Gucci, after a solid start, might see a drop in the mid 40s and that should easily keep it in third. Eternals looks to hold the four spot.
The only change could be Clifford the Big Red Dog going back in the top five. While I have it experiencing a decline of over 50%, I suspect Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City (after a disappointing debut) could plummet in the mid 60s and that would remove it from the high five.
Here’s how I see it going down:
1. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (November 26-28)
It wasn’t the bountiful harvest of Thanksgivings past, but audiences managed to turn up for two newcomers while mostly ignoring a third.
Encanto took in $27.2 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $40.5 million since its Wednesday start. That didn’t reach my projections of $31.2 million and $46.5 million, respectively. The debut is only about half of what previous Disney animated features like the aforementioned Moana and Coco achieved. Yet it’s still the best animated opening in COVID times.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife held up well in second with $24.2 million, a bit shy of my $27 million prediction. The two-week total is $87 million as it looks to hit $100 million in the coming days.
Adult crowds finally turned up for something and they went gaga for House of Gucci. The Ridley Scott pic fashioned a third place showing with $14.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $22 million since Wednesday. That tops my estimates of $12.3 million and $19.8 million.
Eternals was fourth with $7.9 million. My guess? $7.9 million! The MCU adventure stands at $150 million.
The reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City was badgered at the box office with just $5.3 million for the weekend and $8.8 million for the five-day. That falls well under my takes of $7.7 million and $11.7 million.
Holdovers outside the top five also couldn’t match my projections. Clifford the Big Red Dog was sixth at $5 million (I said $6.9 million). Total is $43 million. Will Smith’s Oscar hopeful King Richard is a bonafide disappointment theatrically. I thought it might have a meager decline in its sophomore outing, but it earned $3.2 million for seventh place. I said $4.8 million and the ten-day tally is a mere $11 million.
Hollywood is hoping for a bountiful harvest over the long Turkey Day weekend. We have three newbies premiering: Disney’s animated Encanto, Ridley Scott’s murderous melodrama House of Gucci with Lady Gaga and Adam Driver, and franchise reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The Mouse Factory, as it has over numerous Thanksgiving frames in recent years, should top the charts… should. While I don’t have Encanto nearing the grosses that titles like Moana and Coco have accomplished for the holiday, my low 30s Friday to Sunday estimate has it edging out the sophomore weekend of Ghostbusters: Afterlife.
The latter had a start at the higher end of projections (more on that below) and if it falls in the high 30s, it could challenge Encanto for box office supremacy.
Gucci is a big question mark. I have it comfortably in third with a lower double digits take for the traditional weekend and close to $20 million for the five-day (all newcomers hit theaters on Wednesday). Gaga’s fans in particular could vault it to better numbers. On the other hand, mixed buzz could put it lower.
Resident Evil is a series that experienced its smallest opening weekend with its previous sixth installment The Final Chapter in 2016. It made just shy of $14 million. I’m not optimistic with Raccoon and I believe it could find itself in a close battle with Eternals for the four spot.
As for leftovers, Clifford the Big Red Dog and King Richard (after a disappointing premiere) are likely to post minimal declines. Yet both could fall outside the top five.
And with that, let’s do a top 7 this time around:
1. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $27 million
3. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $19.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
4. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $11.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
7. King Richard
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (November 19-21)
Ghostbustin’ made audiences feel good as the long in development sequel took in $44 million. As mentioned, that’s toward the top of prognostications and bodes well for a healthy run ahead. The sci-fi comedy drove past my $38.1 million estimate.
Eternals dropped to second after two weeks in first with $11 million (a touch below my $12.6 million take). The MCU fantasy stands at $136 million.
In third, Clifford the Big Red Dog slid a bit more than I figured in weekend #2 with $8.1 million (I went with $10.5 million). Total is $33 million.
I have to think Warner Bros. is questioning their choice to simultaneously release Will Smith’s sports drama King Richard on HBO Max. Serving up a weak fourth place debut, it made just $5.4 million. Not approaching my $9.2 million projection, it will hope for minimal declines ahead (and boffo HBO numbers).
Dune rounded out the top five with $3.1 million, below my $4.2 million prediction as it’s approaching the nine figure mark with $98 million.
After six features and a nearly half decade period of dormancy, a franchise is rebooted as Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City debuts over the long Thanksgiving frame. Sony Pictures is hoping the series still has a semblance of a rabid fanbase, but its domestic opening could mark the lowest of the bunch thus far.
The video gamed based horror series began in 2002 and this marks the first without the involvement of director Paul W.S. Anderson and star Milla Jovovich. Johannes Roberts, best known for the two 47 Meters Down flicks, is behind the camera and wrote the script. The cast includes Kaya Scodelario, Hannah John-Kamen, Robbie Amell, Tom Hopper, Donal Logue, and Neal McDonough.
Evil‘s trajectory stateside has not matched the overseas earnings. Volumes II-V all opened consistently between $21-$26 million (it’s worth noting that all entries have been very front loaded in terms of overall gross). 2017’s Resident Evil: The Final Chapter took in $13 million for a weak start with $26 million total. On the plus side, it made the most of all six in terms of international haul ($314 million).
Perhaps Raccoon will manage profits elsewhere, but I don’t see it happening over here. I’ll predict it may not hit the $13 million achieved by its predecessor and I’m referring to the five-day take.
Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $11.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The trailers have already inspired plenty of memes and GIFs and soon we’ll know if audiences are inspired to check out House of Gucci in theaters. From director Ridley Scott, the flashy crime drama centered on the fashion family is out November 24th over the long Thanksgiving weekend. It’s filled with Academy players like Lady Gaga (in her second major role after her Oscar nominated turn in A Star Is Born), Adam Driver, Jared Leto, Jeremy Irons, Salma Hayek, and Al Pacino.
While the review embargo is not yet up, plenty of reactions have come from screenings and they are very mixed. Despite the prevalence of award winning thespians, it appears doubtful that Gucci will be a significant Oscar contender (though Gaga and Leto could get in). The varied buzz could prevent some moviegoers from checking in and adult dramas have struggled mightily in the COVID era. Just last month, Scott’s own The Last Duel was a high priced bomb.
I do believe the curiosity factor will be higher for Gucci than Duel and it also helps that Gaga has plenty of ardent followers who should turn up. That said, a debut in the lower double digits for the traditional frame and close to $2o million for the five-day is probably where this lands.
House of Gucci opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $19.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Disney has a history opening their animated product over the long Thanksgiving holiday and they’re back at it with Encanto. The Columbian themed musical fantasy comes from directors Byron Howard and Jared Bush, the creative team behind Zootopia. Featuring music from Lin-Manuel Miranda, the voice cast includes Stephanie Beatriz, John Leguizamo, Diane Guerrero, and Wilmer Valderrama.
Reviews are where they need to be with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Mouse Factory rolled out their hits over the same five-day period from 2015-2018. Six years ago, the strategy produced the lowest premiere of the bunch with The Good Dinosaur. It made $39 million for the traditional Turkey Day weekend and $55 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday. The high point came a year later when Moana did $56 million and $82 million respectively. 2017’s Coco took in $50 million from Friday to Sunday and $72 million for the five-day. Ralph Breaks the Internet posted $56 million and $84 million the following Thanksgiving.
The Dinosaur haul was considered a disappointment, but that was during a pre-COVID era. If Encanto accomplishes what that pic did, it would be considered more than satisfactory. Family audiences have proven they’re up for a trip to the theater and have done so in the past few days. Clifford the Big Red Dog was a good boy at the box office when it lapped up $16 million last weekend from Friday to Sunday and $22 million overall as it started on Wednesday as well. If Clifford can do that, I imagine Encanto could double those grosses.
Encanto opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
**Blogger’s Note (11/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my King Richard estimate down from $11.2M to $9.2M
Ghostbusters: Afterlife looks to spook up a healthy #1 debut and Will Smith’s Oscar hopeful King Richard debuts in theaters and HBO Max. They’re the newbies out on the pre Thanksgiving frame and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
I’m on the lower end of estimates with Afterlife (high 30s) as I’m unsure how much anticipation is truly built up for the newest iteration of the franchise (just five years after a reboot failed to meet expectations). It’ll certainly open atop the charts and hope for a leggy run with the holidays almost underway.
King Richard could open anywhere from 2nd to 4th. The HBO Max simultaneous premiere will siphon away some viewers, but I’m actually on the higher end of the range here and think it could surpass double digits (placing it third behind the third frame of Eternals).
Clifford the Big Red Dog had a much better than anticipated start and its sophomore decline could be around 35-40% as it should experience a much smaller drop over Turkey Day. Dune should take the five spot.
Here’s how I see it going down:
1. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $38.1 million
2. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
3. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. King Richard
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million
5. Dune
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (November 12-14)
The sophomore fall for Eternals wasn’t quite as pronounced as I thought it might be. The MCU title, which has drawn mixed audience and critical notices, dropped 62% (not abnormal for its franchise) to $26.8 million. That’s ahead of my $23.2 million estimate. The ten-day gross is $118 million.
Clifford the Big Red Dog had a terrific start in second with $16.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $22.2 million since its Wednesday premiere – dwarfing my respective takes of $11.8 million and $17.6 million. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for Dog to leg out commendably with the holiday season nearly upon us.
Dune was third with $5.5 million compared to my $4.9 million prediction and it stands at $93 million.
No Time to Die took the four spot at $4.5 million (I said $4.3 million) to bring it to $150 million.
Venom: Let There Be Carnage rounded out the top five with $3.9 million, a bit ahead of my $3.4 million projection. The sequel hit a milestone as it’s up to $202 million.
Finally, Oscar hopeful Belfast (out on 580 screens) debuted in seventh with $1.7 million. I was a bit more generous with $2.3 million. Kenneth Branagh’s coming-of-age drama will look to stick around with awards season approaching.
**Blogger’s Note (11/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my King Richard estimate down from $11.2M to $9.2M
Will Smith may be primed for his first Oscar win in King Richard, which is served up for audiences on November 19th in theaters and HBO Max. The sports drama casts its lead as Richard Williams, father of tennis superstars Venus and Serena. Reinaldo Marcus Green directs with a supporting cast featuring Aunjanue Ellis, Saniyya Sidney, Demi Singleton, Tony Goldwyn, and Jon Bernthal.
Following its September premiere at Telluride, awards buzz started immediately and it currently sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. With a new autobiography out this week, Smith has been highly visible as Richard is set for release.
Adult themed dramas have struggled mightily during the COVID era and the pic’s availability on HBO’s streamer could certainly eat into the grosses. However, with the Oscar chatter going, I do think this could top the $10 million estimate that’s out there (though probably not by much). It should also manage to play well over subsequent weekends.
King Richard opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
For my Ghostbusters: Afterlife prediction, click here:
It’s in with the old and in with the new as Ghostbusters: Afterlife debuts in theaters November 19th. This was originally scheduled to haunt multiplexes in the summer of 2020 before numerous COVID delays. Jason Reitman directs and there’s some family legacy involved as dad Ivan made parts I and II in 1984 and 1989. Newcomers to the series include Carrie Coon, Finn Wolfhard, Mckenna Grace, Tracy Letts, and Paul Rudd (not to mention Stay Puft Marshmallow Minis according to the trailer). Returnees from the 80s are Bill Murray, Dan Aykroyd, Ernie Hudson, Annie Potts, and Sigourney Weaver.
If rebooting this franchise sounds familiar – that’s because it happened five years ago to middling results. The Paul Feig helmed remake led by Melissa McCarthy and Kristin Wiig took in $46 million on its opening weekend but fizzled quickly due to so-so reviews and audience reaction. It also featured the OG Busters making cameos. This new iteration serves as a direct sequel to the first two.
Some estimates have Afterlife beginning at $50 million or above. That’s certainly doable, but I’m not so sure. While it’s obviously a well-known property and the ’84 original is rightly considered a classic, both follow-ups have been letdowns. The 71% Rotten Tomatoes score is OK, but its actually below the 74% that greeted the ballyhooed 2016 pic.
I’m projecting that this makes it to $35-$40 million and doesn’t get to the number we saw just a half decade back.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
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