Tag: box office predictions

April 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction
Air Box Office Prediction

It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.

Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.

After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

3. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

4. Air

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

5. His Only Son

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.

John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.

Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.

Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.

Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).

Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Air Box Office Prediction

Amazon Studios hope adults are going for a night on the town when Air debuts on Wednesday, April 5th. The fifth directorial feature from Ben Affleck recounts the risky decision by Nike to develop a shoe based around an NBA rookie named Michael Jordan. SPOILER: It turned out well. Ben’s Good Will Hunting cowriter Matt Damon, as salesman Sonny Vaccaro, joins his pal Affleck (who plays company cofounder Phil Knight). The ensemble cast includes Jason Bateman, Marlon Wayans, Chris Messina, Chris Tucker, Matthew Maher, and real life married couple Viola Davis and Julius Tennon as MJ’s parents.

Solid buzz greeted the project when it debuted at South by Southwest. Air sports a 97% Rotten Tomatoes score and it could even be an awards player several months down the road. Adult dramas have faced a tough road recently though A Man Called Otto was a 2023 bright spot in the genre.

The connection to MJ and the star power could give this a lift over the five-day Easter frame. Amazon chose to go full theatrical and not simultaneously release on their streaming service. That is a vote of confidence and TV ads have played frequently during March Madness (in addition to a Super Bowl slot).

Some parents with 80s nostalgia might be distracted taking their kiddos to The Super Mario Bros. Movie. Yet I’ll say this manages to top $10 million over the traditional three-day with mid to high teens for the extended holiday.

Air opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Super Mario Bros. Movie prediction, click here:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M

Universal and Illumination hopes The Super Mario Bros. Movie earns a lot of coinage when it debuts Wednesday, April 5th. The animated adaptation of the wildly influential and popular Nintendo game (and numerous spin-offs) comes from the Teen Titans! Go team of Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic. Chris Pratt and Charlie Day voice the iconic Mario and Luigi with Anya Taylor-Joy as the Princess. Other performers behind the mic include Jack Black, Keegan Michael-Key, Seth Rogen, Fred Armisen, Sebastian Maniscalco, and Charles Martinet (who voiced the plumbers in the original 80s game).

Given how huge this property has been for decades, the lack of cinematic treatments is a little surprising. Nintendo, however, is leery of licensing for adaptations. That might have something to do with 1993’s Super Mario Bros,, the live-action version with Bob Hoskins, John Leguizamo, and Dennis Hopper that critics scorched. It bombed upon arrival that summer when the Jurassic dinosaurs ruled the season.

It’s probably a safe assumption that Illumination won’t drop the ball with the moneymaking potential of this franchise. They’ve repeatedly proven their moneymaking abilities with the Despicable Me and Sing series and more.

Arriving over the five-day Easter holiday, Mario should capitalize on youngsters being out of school and the adults who owned the various iterations of the game attending. This is one “kid’s pic” where many of the parents will be cool with tagging along.

Over the Wednesday to Sunday frame, I believe $100 million plus could be in the pipeline. It might even get to nine digits over the traditional weekend.

The Super Mario Bros. Movie opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Air prediction, click here:

Air Box Office Prediction

March 31-April 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (03/29): I am significantly revising my His Only Son estimate from $6.1M to $3.9M. That puts it in sixth instead of third.

There could be a photo finish at this weekend’s box office between the premiere of Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves and second frame of John Wick: Chapter 4 after it managed a franchise best premiere. Other than Thieves, the faith-based drama His Only Son also rises in multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newbies here:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction
His Only Son Box Office Prediction

While Dungeons certainly has a rabid fanbase and reviews are quite strong, I do wonder how limited its potential is with non-fans who may have zero interest. If this hit $40 million, I wouldn’t be surprised. Same goes for $25 million. That puts me in the middle.

Wick delivered the aforementioned series peak for Keanu and company (more on that below). If the sophomore frame dip is similar to predecessor John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum, it might find itself just behind Dungeons in second. I’m expecting a close battle.

His Only Son, like other titles in its genre, could outdo expectations just as Jesus Revolution did a few weeks ago. My mid single digits projections put it in third with sequels Creed III, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and Scream VI all in close proximity in the 4-6 slots.

Here’s how I envision it:

1. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million

2. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $31.5 million

3. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

5. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

6. His Only Son

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 24-26)

There was little doubt that John Wick: Chapter 4 would continue each entry improving upon the opening of the other. The question was by how much. With the best reviews of the quartet, 4 got off to a $73.8 million start. That’s well beyond the $56 million achieved by the third chapter. I went on the highest end of anticipated ranges with $85.5 million. It didn’t get there, but this is a terrific result.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods plummeted 69% in weekend #2 with $9.7 million. I was more generous at $12.9 million. The DCEU sequel (with $45 million) has made less in 10 days than its 2019 predecessor made in its first three. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. This is a bomb that may struggle to make $75 million domestically.

Creed III was third with $8.3 million, in line with $8.8 million take for $140 million after four weeks.

Scream VI was fourth and also did $8.3 million (I predicted a little more at $9.4 million). The horror sequel is at $89 million as it slashes to $100 million plus.

Finally, 65 rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3 million) for a weak $27 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

BUT in the meantime – check out my podcast on your favorite place to get podcasts. Simply search for Movies at the Speed of Speculation for your listening pleasure!

His Only Son Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (03/29): I am significantly revising my estimate down from $6.1M to $3.8M

Christian streaming service Angel Studios (perhaps best known for their crowdfunded series The Chosen) is branching into features. His Only Son, recounting the Biblical story of Abraham and Isaac, opens in theaters a week before Easter on March 31st. David Helling writes and directs with a cast including Daniel da Silva, Nicolas Mouawad, Sara Seyed, and Edaan Moskowitz.

We have seen faith-based material rise above expectations numerous times. Just last month, Jesus Revolution managed to double most projections with nearly $16 million for its start.

I wouldn’t anticipate those kinds of numbers. Angel’s previous experiences in multiplexes has been with Chosen episodes having special engagements. While Jesus was raking in the dough, the season finale of the TV show made $3.6 million in its first three days of theatrical availability. The first two episodes back in November fared better with almost $9 million.

Forecasting this genre is never an easy task and a screen count could alter my prediction. I’ll say somewhere in the middle of Chosen grosses is where this lands.

His Only Son opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves prediction, click here:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves Box Office Prediction

Paramount hopes audiences are game for a night of fantasy mixed with action and comedy when Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves debuts March 31st. Based on the role playing game that debuted nearly a half century ago and inspired many filmmakers and scribes, Jonathan Goldstein and John Francis Daley (who made 2018’s Game Night) co-direct. Chris Pine and Michelle Rodriguez headline a cast that also includes Regé-Jean Page, Justice Smith, Sophia Lillis, Chloe Coleman, and Hugh Grant.

With a reported budget north of $150 million, this is a gamble for the studio. While the IP is certainly well-known, a previous cinematic rendering did not fare well. A 2000 version featuring Thora Birch, Marlon Wayans, and Jeremy Irons from New Line Cinema made a sorry $15 million domestically.

Nearly a quarter century later, this Dragons tale appears to have more heat behind it. After premiering at South by Southwest, word-of-mouth is positive and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 86% (the 2000 pic had 10%).

Most forecasts have this between $25-30 million for a so-so start considering the price tag (this will clearly need sturdy overseas earnings to turn a profit). My feeling is this could exceed the current projections and get to the low or mid 30s.

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million

For my His Only Son prediction, click here:

His Only Son Box Office Prediction

March 24-26 Box Office Predictions

John Wick: Chapter 4 is set to easily achieve a franchise best record this weekend. It’s the only new wide release burning up the screens and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Box Office Prediction

When I did my initial projection last week, I had Keanu and company hitting close to $70 million. Sizzling buzz now has me projecting in the mid 80s for a series that keeps growing financially with each entry.

The rest of the top 5 will be holdovers. Shazam! Fury of the Gods got off to a middling start (more on that below) and it should fall a bit further than the 54% decline of its predecessor in 2019.

It could be a close call for #3 between Scream VI (which I have dipping in the mid 40s) and Creed III (which could see a lower 40s fall). 65 looks to round out the high five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. John Wick: Chapter 4

Predicted Gross: $85.5 million

2. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

4. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

5. 65

Predicted Gross: $3 million

Box Office Results (March 17-19)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods could’ve used Irish luck or any other type as it came nowhere near the $53 million that its predecessor debuted at. The DCEU sequel made $30.1 million. While it managed to barely top my $27.9 million call, this is a subpar start to be kind. On the heels of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania not matching expectations, there seems to be some superhero fatigue. With a B+ Cinemascore (compared to part 1’s “A”), look for this to suffer substantial declines in the weeks ahead.

Scream VI was second after a franchise high opening with $17.3 million. That’s right on pace with my $17.6 million forecast for a ten-day haul of $75 million (just below the $81 million that #5 earned in total stateside).

Creed III was third with $15.3 million (I said $16.5 million) for a three-week tally of $127 million. That puts it beyond the $115 million that part II made overall.

65 was fourth with $5.8 million, a smidge ahead of my $4.8 million projection. Adam Driver’s dino adventure stands at a muted $22 million thus far.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania rounded out the top five with $4.2 million, in line with my $4.3 million prediction. Total is $205 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

John Wick: Chapter 4 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (03/20): Wick appears poised for a massive over performance. I am revising from projection from $69.1M to $85.5M.

Each Wick pic has burned brighter at the box office than the previous entry and the trend looks to continue as John Wick: Chapter 4 is unleashed on March 24th. Keanu Reeves is back in the title role with Chad Stahelski returning to direct. The supporting players are a mix of familiar franchise faces and newcomers including Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Hiroyuki Sanada, Shamier Anderson, Lance Reddick, Rino Sawayama, Ian McShane, and Laurence Fishburne.

In the fall of 2014, the first Wick was a modest success when it debuted with $14 million and $43 million domestic overall. Those numbers seem meager now, but they were better than anticipated and more fans were gained when it hit the home viewing circuit. The 2017 sequel took in $30 million out of the gate with $92 million total. In 2019, Chapter 3 – Parabellum soared to a $56 million premiere with $171 million in the stateside bank.

At nearly three hours long, Chapter 4 is generating some of the strongest reviews of the series. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics are particularly praising the choreography of its wild action sequences. That should get plenty of genre fans out to the multiplexes. Like Creed III, look for this to score a series high opening with room to spare. I’m thinking mid 60s to possibly $70 million is achievable.

John Wick: Chapter 4 opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million (REVISED NUMBER)

March 17-19 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M. Also bumping Scream VI from $16.6 to $17.6M and Creed III from $15.4M to $16.5M

Shazam! Fury of the Gods will keep the run of sequels in first place going at the box office, but it could deliver a so-so start. The DCEU follow-up to 2019’s original is the only wide release of the weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Box Office Prediction

Zachary Levi’s superhero hopes to top the $53 million earned by its predecessor four years ago. I have it falling about $10 million shy of that mark in the low 40s which would be considered a letdown. This is especially true considering the recent franchise best starts for the Creed and Scream series. ***Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I have significantly lowered my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M

Speaking of, it could be a close race for #2 between Scream VI and Creed III. The former slashed it way to a terrific debut (more on that below). Given its genre, a hefty sophomore decline is likely while Creed III may not suffer a steep drop.

A ginormous fall will probably greet 65 after the premiere. Adam Driver’s battle with dinosaurs managed only a C+ Cinemascore grade which means word-of-mouth may cause a second weekend percentage plummet close to its title number. It should be in a tight battle with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for fourth position.

Here’s how I envision that top 5 looking:

1. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

2. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

4. 65

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (March 10-12)

Scream VI needed to pass the $34 million earned by Scream 3 in 2000 to achieve the franchise’s high mark. It did so easily with $44.4 million, just edging my $42.6 million call. With a B+ Cinemascore (same as last year’s Scream which was Scream 5 and just not called that), audiences are liking what they’re seeing. As mentioned, it should still see a dip in the high 50s to low 60s range.

Creed III fell a respectable 53% to second with $27.2 million, punching past my $25 million take. The threequel from director and star Michael B. Jordan has amassed $101 million in ten days on its way to becoming the largest earner of the trilogy.

65 was third with $12.3 million. While that beats my $10.7 million prediction, that’s a meager beginning considering its reported large budget. Per above, expect this to become extinct quickly.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was fourth with $7.1 million compared to my $6.5 million estimate. The MCU adventure is approaching the double century club at $198 million. It might barely outpace its predecessor from 2018.

Cocaine Bear rounded out the top five with $6.2 million. My prediction? $6.2 million! The three-week total is $51 million.

Sports comedy Champions with Woody Harrelson kicked off in sixth with a blah $5.1 million. I said it would make… $5.1 million! The good news is its A Cinemascore and it will hope for small percentage losses in the frames ahead.

Finally, Jesus Revolution was seventh with $5.1 million and I said… (you guessed it!) $5.1 million. The three-week gross is $39 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M.

Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I’m significantly lowering my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M

Arriving four years after its predecessor was a solid hit with critics and audiences, Shazam! Fury of the Gods hopes for box office luck and plenty o’ green beginning March 17th. The DCEU title finds Zachary Levi returning to the superhero role with Asher Angel (as alter ego Billy Batson), Jack Dylan Grazer, Adam Brody, Ross Butler, and Djimon Hounsou back from the 2019 original. Newcomers to the franchise include Rachel Zegler, Lucy Liu, Meagan Good, and Helen Mirren. David F. Sandberg is again in the directorial chair.

Shazam! managed to slightly exceed its forecasts when it earned $53 million in its premiere with a $140 million eventual gross. Last fall’s spin-off Black Adam climbed with $67 million out of the gate and a $168 million domestic haul (the presence of Dwayne Johnson provided an assist).

Early tracking last week indicated potential trouble for the sequel. Some estimates had Fury as low as $35 million. That seems unlikely. In 2023, sequels are managing to build upon previous installments. Creed III and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania are recent examples.

That said, Ant-Man has not been a runaway success compared to expectations. Moviegoers could be experiencing a little sequelitis and comic book adaptation fatigue by the time this hits. And while Shazam! was well-received, I wouldn’t say it’s beloved (similar to Ant-Man).

I’ll project that this doesn’t match what part 1 accomplished and fall about $10 million under it.

Shazam! Fury of the Gods opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million (UPDATED PER ABOVE)