Meg Ryan may have a spot on the rom com Mt. Rushmore with classics like When Harry Met Sally…, Sleepless in Seattle, and You’ve Got Mail. A quarter century plus following those titles, Ryan is back in the genre she’s most known for with What Happens Later on November 3rd. It marks her second feature behind the camera and her first appearance onscreen in eight years. The two-hander finds her stranded at an airport with her ex (David Duchovny).
The Bleecker Street production is slated for just under 1500 screens this weekend. That severely hinders its potential. Frankly, so does the fact that many viewers of a younger age simply aren’t as familiar with the director’s filmography. Originally scheduled for October 13, it was pushed to early November to avoid a certain concert pic from Taylor Swift.
Even hardcore fans wanting to see Ryan’s return to this territory may choose to wait for streaming options. With the limited output, topping $2 million could be an achievement.
What Happens Later opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million
Blogger’s Update (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
After a series of delays dating back to summer 2022, the MCU’s 33rd adventure arrives November 10th with The Marvels. Nia DaCosta, best known for her 2021 Candyman remake, directs. Captain Marvel Brie Larson leads a cast that includes Teyonah Parris, Iman Vellani, Zawe Ashton, Park Seo-joon, and Samuel L. Jackson.
Beginning with Spider-Man: No Way Home, we’ve seen a run of six MCU pics that opened to $100 million or over. It certainly helped that each one of them was a sequel in a well-established sub franchise including Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and Black Panther.
The nine digit premiere streak should end here and the debut may look more like a trilogy of titles from 2021. Black Widow started with $80 million in the summer of that year and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings did $75 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of its Labor Day weekend bow. Finally, Eternals managed $71 million in November.
Two years later, I’m not confident The Marvels even matches those grosses. Other than Captain Marvel and Jackson’s Nick Fury, the other characters are relatively unknown compared to various Avengers counterparts. There’s always the risk of superhero overload and we’ve seen our share of letdowns in the genre in 2023 (The Flash, Blue Beetle, Shazam! Fury of the Gods). Yes, those were all DCU, but the subpar earnings could apply here.
I’m projecting The Marvels will have the lowest MCU beginning since Ant-Man ($57 million) back in 2015. That would be a rather significant letdown for Marvel in their third feature from Phase Five and the third smallest opening overall of the 33 picture series.
The Marvels opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million
For my Journey to Bethlehem prediction, click here:
After a record breaking Halloween opening at the box office, Five Nights at Freddy’s will have no trouble dominating the charts again as November arrives. The only wide release is the expansion of biopic Priscilla from Sofia Coppola. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While it played went well in limited release this weekend, Priscilla probably won’t impress as it goes nationwide. I’m projecting it at the lower end of its range for what could be a fourth or fifth place showing (depending on the second weekend drop for faith-based doc After Death).
Freddy’s is ready to easily be 1st again after its massive start (more on that below). It’s a reasonable assumption that its earnings will be quite front loaded. A mid 60s to even high 60s decline wouldn’t be a surprise, but that would still give it a second frame atop the landscape due to scant competition.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon (following a disappointing sophomore performance) should retain their spots in second and third. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. Priscilla
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
5. After Death
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (October 27-29)
Based on the hugely successful series of video games, Five Nights at Freddy’s obliterated the previous best Halloween weekend of all time. It was held by 2011’s Puss in Boots with $34 million. Freddy’s more than doubled that mark with an astonishing $80 million. That’s good for the third highest horror start in history after It and its sequel. It bested my $68.3 million prediction and that’s all the more impressive considering it premiered simultaneously on Peacock.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, after its own record setting two weeks on top, fell to second with $15.4 million. That’s a tad more than my $14.2 million take as it’s up to $150 million domestically.
Killers of the Flower Moon, despite great reviews and Oscar buzz, fell a troubling 60% in its second outing with $9.3 million. I assumed it would hold up much better at $13.4 million. The subpar ten-day tally (especially considering a $200 million budget) is $40 million.
I mistakenly left After Death out of top five. The documentary from Angel Studios (the company behind the unexpected summer smash Sound of Freedom) was fourth with $5 million.
The Exorcist: Believer rounded out the top five with $3.2 million (I said $3.5 million) for $59 million in four weeks.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was sixth with $2.3 million (I went with $2.9 million) for five week earnings of $59 million as well.
Two months after it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, Priscilla rolls out in wide release on November 3rd. Based on her mid-80s memoir, the biopic of Priscilla Presley stars Cailee Spaeny in the title role with Jacob Elordi as Elvis. Sofia Coppola directs.
Reviews have been satisfactory with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating. While Spaeny could contend at the Oscars in Best Actress (though it’s a crowded field), this has not generated much awards buzz outside of that. The A24 title is out in limited fashion October 27th. While it might play decently on the coasts, I suspect there’s not much demand across the country.
Part of its diminished prospects could be attributed to Elvis, Baz Luhrmann’s flashy biopic which rocked the box office in the summer of 2022. It picked up 8 Academy nominations as well.
If this were to manage high single digits, A24 should consider that a success. I am skeptical about that and I question whether it even gets to $5 million.
Priscilla opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million
Based on the hugely popular series of video games, the PG-13 horror flick Five Nights at Freddy’s looks to dominate the Halloween frame. It is the only wide release as October draws to a close and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
There is a wide range of possibility for Freddy’s and I think it is ready for a debut just north of $60 million. That would easily top the rest of the top five combined.
The battle for the runner-up spot will be decided by the respective third and second weekend drops for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour and Killers of the Flower Moon. The former had an understandable mid 6os plummet as Swifties wanted to rush out and see it immediately. Moon hopes for smallish declines in the frames ahead. I have Ms. Swift edging Killers as her concert film enters its third and final outing in multiplexes.
The Exorcist: Believer should be fourth with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie rounding out the top five. Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $68.3 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
5. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
Box Office Results (October 20-22)
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour belonged at #1 again as the record-setting concert experience drew another $33.2 million, a tad under my $35.6 million projection. That gives it a two weekend take of $131 million.
Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon came in at the bottom end of its expected range with $23.2 million. I was more generous at $32.7 million. While not a flop (especially considering it was first slated for an Apple TV streaming start), it is underwhelming considering the awards buzz, Leo star power, and $200 million reported budget. The Oscar hopeful will hope to leg out during November.
The Exorcist: Believer was third with $5.6 million compared to my $6.9 million forecast. The three-week total is a fair $54 million.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie sat in the four spot with $4.4 million (I said $4.7 million) for $56 million after four frames.
Rounding out the top five was a holiday themed re-release of 1993’s The Nightmare Before Christmas on its 30th anniversary. The Tim Burton produced classic added another $4.2 million to its coffers. I failed to put it in the mix.
That took Saw X out of the high five in sixth with $3.6 million (I went with $4.1 million). The four-week gross is $47 million.
Universal and Blumhouse are banking on a big financial delivery for Five Nights at Freddy’s when it debuts October 27th. Based on a massively popular video game series that began in 2014, the PG-13 horror pic comes from director Emma Tammi. The cast includes Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, Mary Stuart Masterson, and Matthew Lillard.
The fanbase for the games should be hungry to watch this immediately. Rather surprisingly, Freddy’s will also be available same day on Peacock (much like the recent Halloween trilogy from the same studio). That could eat into the theatrical earnings as some viewers may prefer to make it a Halloween weekend couch experience.
I still think taking the over is probably wise and that might mean a start in the mid to high 60s range.
Five Nights at Freddy’s opening weekend prediction: $68.3 million
Blogger’s Update (10/18): And it’s a big one… by lowering my projection of Killers from $38.7 million to $32.7 million, that puts Eras at #1 for the second weekend in a row.
Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio’s sixth collaboration faces off against Taylor Swift’s second cinematic touring weekend as Oscar hopeful Killers of the Flower Moon blossoms on Friday. It could shape up to be a close battle for the top spot. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Killers here:
With rave reviews and awards buzz, Moon could fill multiplexes up with adult moviegoers who turned Oppenheimer into a smash hit over the summer. While it won’t reach as high, I believe a low 30s premiere is certainly doable.
Whether that puts it in first is a huge question mark. That’s because the sophomore frame of Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is tricky to figure out. The concert doc didn’t reach the lofty expectations that kept rising prior to its start (more on that below). Yet it still scored a massive debut that set every record possible for its genre. The deal that Ms. Swift cut with theaters is a unique one, to say the least. Eras is not playing on Mondays, Tuesdays, or Wednesdays. That could certainly increase the demand during the second weekend. However, it probably goes without saying that its gross is likely to be front loaded due to her fans rushing out to see it (a whole bunch of its business came from presales). I’ll be honest. I’m at a loss for how far it dips coming up. I will speculate high 60s to possibly low 70s and that would put it just behind my Killers estimate.
Holdover sequels of the horror and family variety should fill the 3-5 slots as The Exorcist: Believer, PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, and Saw X look to post decent holds in the 30s-low 40s range.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $35.6 million
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $32.7 million
3. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 13-15)
It isn’t often that Taylor Swift doesn’t reach the levels of financial success that are anticipated, but it might have been a case of expectations being too sky high. The Eras Tour was projected to top the all-time October weekend record held by Joker at $96 million. I had it doing so with room to spare at $139.6 million. It wasn’t to be as it achieved the second largest debut at $92.8 million. By the way, that triples the previous best concert doc start held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour. In other words, it’s still a rather remarkable performance.
The Exorcist: Believer dropped to second with an understandable $10.9 million, a bit above my $9.7 million take. The direct sequel to the 1973 classic sits at $44 million after ten days as it hopes for meager declines as we approach Halloween.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was third with $6.8 million (on pace with my $6.6 million forecast) for $49 million after three weeks.
Saw X reaped the benefit of horror fans looking for a scare. Dropping just 28%, Jigsaw and company took in $5.6 million compared to my $4.1 million prediction. Total is $41 million thus far.
The Creator rounded out the top five at $4.3 million (I said $3.5 million) for a three-week tally of just $32 million.
After a Cannes Film Festival premiere in May that instantly turned it into a major awards contender, Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon shines down on theaters October 20th. It marks the legendary filmmaker’s sixth collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio and tenth with Robert De Niro. Lily Gladstone is third lead and she’s generating Oscar buzz along with her aforementioned costars. The supporting cast includes Jesse Plemons, Tantoo Cardinal, John Lithgow, and Brendan Fraser.
Based on David Grann’s 2017 novel, the reported $200 million production was picked up by Apple TV. They chose to go the theatrical route with the three and a half hour epic (Scorsese’s predecessor The Irishman went straight to Netflix).
This summer, adults turned out in full force for Oppenheimer (as in close to a billion worldwide). A lot of moviegoers who made the trek to see Christopher Nolan’s potential Best Picture winner do the same with this potential BP recipient. My forecast puts in the upper region of its expected range. That would be close to $30-35 million and don’t be shocked if it gets past that.
Killers of the Flower Moon opening weekend prediction: $32.7 million
This coming weekend should be very lucky for a songstress you may have heard of named Taylor Swift. Her cinematic airing of The Eras Tour is out on approximately 4000 screens as it looks to dominate the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The power of Swift has propelled the concert doc to hefty pre sales totaling over $100 million worldwide. I’m projecting the domestic take will fall just shy of $140 million. That would give it the third best premiere of 2023 behind only Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
No other studio dared to open anything against Taylor and her army of Swifties. In fact, The Exorcist Believer moved up its release date to this past weekend. It had a so-so start (more on that below). With a meh C Cinemascore grade, I look for it to fall in the low to mid 60s in its sophomore frame.
The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers likely dropping in the low to high 40s. Everything should slide a spot with PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie, Sax X, and The Creator populating 3-5 in their third weekends.
Here’s how I think it’ll play out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $139.6 million
2. The Exorcist: Believer
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
3. PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
4. Saw X
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. The Creator
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 6-8)
David Gordon Green’s take on another iconic horror franchise couldn’t come close to his Halloween numbers as The Exorcist: Believer fell slightly short of expectations. The poorly reviewed direct sequel to the 1973 classic scared up $26.4 million compared to my $31.9 million prediction. That’s not terrible, but Universal reportedly ponied up $400 million for the rights to the series with two sequels planned. A mid 20s beginning (coupled with that unimpressive Cinemascore grade) could spell trouble ahead.
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie was second with $11.3 million, a bit under my $12.8 million forecast. The animated sequel has grossed a sturdy $38 million in ten days of release.
Saw X had an understandable 57% decline for third with $7.8 million (I was close with $8.3 million). Jigsaw and company’s tenth go-round has $32 million in the bank thus far.
The Creator was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.9 million) for a disappointing $25 million in its first two weeks.
I incorrectly didn’t project numbers for The Blind and A Haunting in Venice. They were 5th and 6th respectively with $3.2 million and $2.6 million. The Blind has made $10 million in two weeks while Venice is at $35 million after four frames.
The error was placing The Nun II in fifth. It was seventh with $2.6 million. My prediction? $2.6 million! This horror sequel has achieved $81 million.
Taylor Swift has proven over and again that she’s money in the bank when it comes to album and tour sales, merchandise, and even viewership for NFL games. The singer is about to enter her box office queen era when Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour hits theaters on October 13th. The concert film struck a distribution deal with AMC and Cinemark and the Friday the 13th (Taylor’s lucky number) drop date caused studios to shift their release patterns. For example, The Exorcist: Believer moved up a week to avoid direct confrontation.
Presales are already robust. It earned $37 million on the first day of tickets being available online. That means that in one day, it surpassed the best opening weekend for a concert pic ever. The record was held by Hannah Montana and Miley Cyrus: The Beth of Both Worlds Concert at $31 million, followed by Justin Bieber: Never Say Never with $29 million, and then This Is It with Michael Jackson at $23 million.
It goes without saying that the Swifties will cause this to shatter every previous best of mark for the concert genre. Just how high is the only real question. Swift’s previous filmography is littered with financial disappointments like Cats and Amsterdam. However, she wasn’t the focal point of either and her star has continued to rise.
The price of admission will be elevated at nearly $20 a pop for adults and that will push the earnings up. Some initial projections have this in the $100-120 million range out of the gate. I’ll admit that it’s a little murky as to how much this could bring in. This may not come as a shocker, but my gut says overestimating is smarter than underestimating when it comes to this show’s central figure. I’ll go above the forecast and give it the third best domestic frame of 2023 behind Barbie and The Super Mario Bros. Movie.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour opening weekend prediction: $139.6 million
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