Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.
Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.
Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.
Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)
For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here:
Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.
Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).
That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Lisa Frankenstein
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
2. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
4. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (February 2-4)
As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.
The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.
The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.
Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.
Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.
Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.
Lisa Frankenstein hopes to bring the box office to life when it opens February 9th. The horror comedy marks the directorial debut of Zelda Williams with a script from Juno and Jennifer’s Body scribe Diablo Coby. Kathryn Newton and Cole Sprouse headline with a supporting cast including Liza Soberano, Henry Eikenberry, Joe Chrest, and Carla Gugino.
The Focus Features production seeks out teens and horror fans, but could have trouble finding them. While the marketplace is starved for product at the moment, I don’t expect this to break the financial spell.
With a reported budget of only $13.5 million, Lisa should still manage about half of that figure for its start. I’m skeptical that it hits double digits out of the gate.
Lisa Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
Matthew Vaughn’s star-studded spy comedy Argylle will end the Mean Girls three-week reign atop the charts as February kicks off at the box office. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After a dreadful end to January where filmgoers were especially preoccupied with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Taylor Swift, Brock Purdy, Lions, and Ravens, a low 20s start for Argylle should inject at least some life into multiplexes.
The runner-up spot could be another newcomer. Christian series The Chosen is debuting the first three episodes of its fourth season beginning on Thursday. I didn’t do an individual write-up for it, but the Friday to Sunday portion should get to mid or even high single digits. That would likely give it the 2 slot.
Holdovers will populate the rest of the top five. I’m assuming The Beekeeper and Wonka will have smaller declines than current champ Mean Girls. If my estimates pan out, that could mean a 1st to 5th place drop for said Girls.
Here’s how I have it playing out:
1. Argylle
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
2. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
Box Office Results (January 26-28)
As mentioned, it was a tepid end to January as studios sat the weekend out. In fact, it was the weakest frame in nearly two years. The top five features did all manage to slightly exceed my projections.
Mean Girls took in $6.9 million for subdued bragging rights over my $6 million call. The three-week tally is $60 million as it hopes to match the $86 million earned by the original 20 years ago (not adjusted for inflation).
The Beekeeper nearly grabbed the top spot at $6.6 million, dipping a mere 22% in its third outing. I went lower at $5.1 million. Its better than anticipated gross is $41 million.
Wonka was third with $5.6 million, in range with my $5.3 million call. The seven-week take for the largest holiday hit is $194 million. It should hit $200 million later this week.
Migration was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $4.5 million) as it crossed the century mark after six weeks with $101 million.
Anyone but You rounded out the top five as it continued its impressive run at $4.6 million (I forecasted $4.2 million). The rom com is up to $71 million since its Christmas bow.
Kingsman maker Matthew Vaughn appears to be in his comfort zone with Argylle, out February 2nd. The spy action comedy comes with a reported $200 million budget and hopes to spawn a trilogy. Henry Cavill, Bryce Dallas Howard, Sam Rockwell, Bryan Cranston, Catherine O’Hara, Dua Lipa, Ariana DeBose, John Cena, and Samuel L. Jackson fill out the eclectic cast. There’s even a Taylor Swift connection (sort of). Swifties speculated that the film’s author character (played by Howard) might in fact be the superstar/Chiefs fan, but Vaughn debunked the theory. Anytime Swift is in the mix, that means your movie is getting extra attention.
Argylle could also be helped by the dead zone that is the current box office landscape. There’s simply not much out there and this star-studded affair will be the highest profile option.
That said, I don’t think this will exceed expectations. Current forecasts have this in the high teens to low 20s and I think that sounds right. This means Argylle may need to rely on overseas grosses if it wants that trilogy.
The month of January seems destined to go out with a whimper as thriller Miller’s Girl with Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega is the sole wide release. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The top five may look very similar to this previous frame except the earnings will be even smaller. Mean Girls could manage a third weekend at #1 with a drop close to 50%. If it drops more precipitously, that could open the door for Wonka or The Beekeeper to vault over it.
Migration and Anyone but You are likely to stay put in fourth and fifth.
You’ll notice I haven’t discussed Miller’s Girl yet and that’s because my $2.2 million leaves it on the outside looking in.
Here’s my top 5 forecast:
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
4. Migration
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
5. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (January 19-21)
Mean Girls, despite a hefty 59% drop, was perched in 1st for the second weekend with $11.6 million. That’s just under my $12.6 million prediction as the ten-day gross reached $50 million.
Jason Statham’s The Beekeeper was the runner-up again with $8.6 million (right on target with my $8.7 million projection) for $31 million thus far.
Wonka was third with an additional $6.7 million (I said $6 million) to bring its haul to $187 million with $200 million approaching.
Migration made $5.4 million for fourth. I went with $4.9 million as the animated feature is getting to nine digits with $94 million.
Anyone but You continued its impressive run in fifth with $5.4 million, on pace with my $5.5 million call. The tally is $64 million.
Lastly, sci-fi thriller I.S.S. was a dud. It started off in seventh with $3 million, in range with my $2.6 million take.
Lionsgate is seeking viewers for Miller’s Girl when it opens on January 26th, but the challenge could be audiences even knowing it exists. The pic from debut director/writer Jade Halley Bartlett stars Martin Freeman and Jenna Ortega. The trailer might remind one of a late 80s/early 90s style Fatal Attraction clone. Costars include Gideon Adlon, Bashir Salahuddin, Dagmara Domińczyk, and Christine Adams.
With a coproduction credit from Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, Girl hopes that Ortega’s Wednesday fans will turn up to watch her on a Friday-Sunday at the multiplex. I haven’t seen a theater count for this yet and that could alter my forecast. The marketing campaign seems scant and my prediction reflects it. Miller’s might not be crossing $3 million.
Miller’s Girl opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million
The space station set sci-fi thriller I.S.S. is the only wide release debut in what should be a sluggish weekend at the box office. Our newcomer may struggle to make the top five and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
After a fetching start (more on that below), Mean Girls should remain #1 for the second weekend. However, with a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid to high 50s is possible. It still might be the only title to get beyond $10 million as the typical January slowdown commences.
Jason Statham’s action thriller The Beekeeper, after its stronger than anticipated premiere, should be keeping its spot at #2 with a mid to high 40s decline.
The rest of the top five should consist of holiday leftovers with Wonka, Anyone but You, and Migration all experiencing meager dips.
Back to I.S.S. I’m just not seeing a launch of any magnitude and my $2.6 million forecast does indeed mean a showing outside the high five.
Here’s how I do see it:
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million
2. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (January 12-15)
It was a robust premiere for the latest take on Mean Girls as the musical comedy scored $33.6 million over the four-day MLK weekend. That’s over my $27.6 million prediction and at the peak end of its anticipated range.
The Beekeeper also exceeded expectations with $18.7 million, well over my $10.6 million projection. It proved to be a viable option for action fans despite bad weather and playoff football. P.S. – now that my Browns are out, go Texans (Buckeye CJ Stroud) or Lions (long suffering fanbase).
Wonka was third with $11 million, not matching my $12.9 million call. The hit of the holidays has amassed $178 million after five weeks with $200 million domestic in its sights.
Migration was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.3 million) as it approaches the century mark with $88 million in four weekends.
Anyone but You rounded out the top five and also grossed $8.5 million for its impressive four-week haul of $56 million. A went with a little more at $9.5 million.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was sixth with $6.3 million, under my $7.6 million guesstimate, for $109 million overall since its Christmas weekend bow.
Badly reviewed horror flick Night Swim plummeted from 2nd to 7th with $5.4 million (I said $6.1 million) for two-week earnings of $20 million.
Finally, Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence couldn’t find an audience. It was ninth with a mere $3 million compared to my projection of $5.5 million.
I.S.S. isn’t a comedy about a group of rambunctious teens serving in-school suspension. The title stands for International Space Station in the sci-fi thriller from Gabriela Cowperthwaite, best known for directing the documentary Blackfish. Oscar winner Ariana DeBose, Chris Messina, John Gallagher Jr., Maria Mashkova, Costa Ronin, and Pilou Asbaek star.
Critics first boarded I.S.S. back in June at the Tribeca Film Festival where it launched with solid notices (93% on RT). Bleecker Street acquired the rights last fall for the January 19th premiere. The release date doesn’t indicate much confidence (despite the reviews). It also doesn’t help that Bleecker’s distribution library is littered with box office disappointments (Mafia Mamma anyone?). If this manages to reach $5 million, I’d be a little surprised.
The four-day MLK weekend finds three new ride release entries with Mean Girls (based on the Broadway play that’s based on the 2004 comedy), action thriller The Beekeeper with Jason Statham, and Biblical dramedy The Book of Clarence. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Mean Girls should easily manage to be first #1 title released from 2024. That’s something Night Swim couldn’t do this weekend (more on that below). With an anticipated sizable female audience, Girls may take in low to high 20s over the Friday to Monday portion of the extended frame.
The Beekeeper could certainly exceed my expectations, but I have it barely clearing $10 million. That should put it in third behind the fifth weekend of Wonka.
If you look at previous MLK four-days, holiday leftovers can often have slight decreases or even small increases. That could be the case with rom com Anyone but You which has proven to be impressively durable since its Christmas bow. That said, Girls does serve as direct competition. I have it rising from fifth to fourth with Migration rounding out the top five.
I’m not expecting much out of The Book of Clarence and a mid single digits premiere puts it in eighth in my estimation.
The largest drop should belong to Night Swim. Sizable horror dips are common and it doesn’t help that reviews and word-of-mouth is underwater. A fall from 2nd to 8th is possible.
And with that, we will do a top 8 this time around. Keep in mind that all estimates are for Friday thru Monday…
1. Mean Girls
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Wonka
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. The Beekeeper
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
4. Anyone but You
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Migration
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
6. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
7. Night Swim
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
8. The Book of Clarence
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (January 5-7)
Box office 2024 kicked off with Wonka wrapping up a third weekend atop the charts with $14 million, a bit below my $16.3 million take. In four weeks, the holiday hit has amassed $164 million with $200 million domestic in its sights.
As mentioned, Night Swim was a second place finisher with $11.7 million. That’s under my $14.1 million forecast, but still a fair showing considering the reported $15 million price tag. It is, however, well under what M3GAN accomplished for Universal/Blumhouse in the same frame last year.
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom was third with $10.6 million, rising above my $8.3 million prediction. The DCU sequel finally hit $100 million after three weeks.
Migration was fourth with $9.9 million (I was higher at $12.8 million) as the animated offering has grossed $77 million since its Yuletide start.
Anyone but You continues to confound expectations with an 11% increase in its third go-round. With $9.7 million (exceeding my $6.7 million call), the total is $43 million and climbing.
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