Out July 10th and arriving nearly a decade behind the original, Moana is Disney’s latest live-action rendering of their animated blockbusters. The musical adventure marks the directorial debut of Broadway vet Thomas Kail with Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui and Catherine Laga’aia making her big screen debut in the title role. Costars include John Tui, Frankie Adams, Jemaine Clement, and Rena Owen.
In 2016, Moana kicked off with $56 million over the traditional Thanksgiving weekend and $82 million over the five-day holiday frame. The domestic haul was an eventual $248 million. Over Turkey Day in 2024, Moana 2 tremendously exceeded expectations with $139 million from Friday to Sunday, $225 million for the five-day, and $460 million overall.
The Mouse House wasted no time with this live-action version to capitalize on the franchise’s viability. An argument could be made that the eight-year wait between the first two Moana‘s helped with anticipation. That may not be the case for this version considering that two years hasn’t even lapsed. Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 are still offering competition for family crowds. That could spell trouble for Moana and I’m projecting only mid 50s for what would be seen as a major letdown.
Animation domination looks to be in order over the holiday weekend with Minions & Monsters debuting and Toy Story 5 sliding to the runner-up slot. Angel Studios is also releasing Young Washington focused on the formative years of America’s 1st POTUS. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me/Minions franchise, Monsters is unleashed on Wednesday. The Fourth of July falls on a Saturday where many families will opt for literal fireworks instead of causing financial ones at the multiplex. I’ll project mid 60s for Friday to Sunday while topping nine digits over the five-day rollout.
Young Washington‘s projections are all over the map with some as low as $10 million and others in the $30 million range. The timing of release is hopefully shrewd for its studio. I’m basically splitting the difference with a high teens gross and that should be good for third.
Toy Story 5 may lose around 50% of its audience (especially with the Minions competition) for second place. The sophomore frame decline for Supergirl should be far more significant after a weak opening (more on that below). I have it plummeting in the mid 60s for low teens while Obsession should round out the top five.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Minions & Monsters
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Toy Story5
Predicted Gross: $35.4 million
3. Young Washington
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. Supergirl
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
5. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
Box Office Results (June 26-28)
Toy Story 5 fell an understandable 56% in weekend #2 to $70.8 million after a franchise best start. I had it holding stronger at $80.6 million though Disney/Pixar is perfectly happy with the $298 million in its domestic coffers.
The story of the week was the collective meh that audiences and critics greeted Supergirl with. The second pic in the newly configured DC Universe after last summer’s Superman, the stand-alone effort for the Man of Steel’s cousin brought in only $37.1 million compared to my $44.5 million call. To put that in perspective, Superman from last summer started off with $125 million.
Obsession was third with $9.7 million, a touch more than my $9 million forecast. The horror sensation has amassed $233 million after seven weeks.
No previous Jackass flick has earned less than $20 million out of the gate before now. However, series finale Jackass: Best and Last ensured it probably will be the swan song. It opened in fourth with a disappointing $8.4 million, under my $11.3 million projection.
Disclosure Day was fifth with $8.2 million (I said $8.4 million) for an underwhelming three-week take of $94 million.
Angel Studios hopes audiences will seek a Founding Father drama over the Independence Day weekend when Young Washington debuts on July 3rd. Directed by Jon Erwin (I Can Only Imagine, American Underdog), William Franklyn-Miller plays our first POTUS in his formative years. Costars include Mary-Louise Parker, Kelsey Grammer, Andy Serkis, and Ben Kingsley.
Three summers ago, Sound of Freedom from the same studio shocked box office prognosticators with a Fourth of July frame gross of over $40 million for the extended six-day earnings. July 4th was on a Tuesday that year and its traditional Friday to Sunday gross was $19 million. It would be a heavenly result for Angel to repeat that same magic. However, with the 4th on the Saturday, the dynamic has changed. Projections for Young Washington are all over the map with some as low as $10 million from Friday to Sunday and the most optimistic topping $30 million.
I am not falling on the side of the high end estimates though the timing of the release is shrewd and this distributor has certainly exceeded expectations before. On the flip side, they’ve had a number of so-so performances since Freedom. I’ll say high teens is where it lands.
Young Washington opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million
Looking to set off fireworks over the long holiday weekend, Minions & Monsters attacks multiplexes on July 1st. The seventh overall feature in the Despicable Me/Minions sagas, the animated comedy finds creator Pierre Coffin directing and voicing the beloved animated yellow creatures. The Illumination Entertainment production also features vocal contributions from Allison Janney, Christoph Waltz, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Zoey Deutch, Bobby Moynihan, and Trey Parker.
A prequel set in the 1920s (nearly a half century before 2015’s Minions), Monsters should stay the course for a remarkably durable franchise. Early critical response is thumbing up as kids and parents should turn out in droves. That said, the seventh offering (behind four Despicable Me entries and two Minions flicks) is unlikely to threaten series best figures. There’s also Toy Story 5 in its third outing and it should still be performing well.
Illumination has made it a habit to open these pics in the 4th of July corridor or a tad later in the month. Minions hold the highest overall 3-day debut at $115 million right after the holiday. 2022’s Minions: The Rise of Gru opened on July 1 with a three-day take of $107 million. For this one, a Wednesday beginning is occurring. The Fourth of July is landing on a Saturday. Based on historical precedence, that should mean a dip in earnings on that date since plenty of families will be preoccupied with the 250th celebration. It also means the Wednesday and Thursday numbers should play like a traditional weekend date.
I’ll project a mid 60s gross from Friday to Sunday while it gets above nine digits for the five-day.
Minions & Monsters opening weekend prediction: $66.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $106.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Supergirl will attempt to fly high and challenge Toy Story 5 for box office bragging rights as June closes out, but it faces considerable odds. The DC Studios adventure opens alongside Johnny Knoxville and his band of pranksters in Jackass: Best and Last. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The rosiest estimates have Supergirl approaching $60 million. Even if that occurs, it’s probably not enough to catch Toy Story 5 which should ease in the mid 40s-50 percent range. I’m taking the under with Supergirl and projecting mid 40s. That would leave it well behind in the runner-up position.
Jackass: Best and Last should the first of the five big screen franchise entries to open under $20 million. My low teens forecast would mean a third place showing as the series may be running out of steam with the alleged final edition.
Holdovers Obsession and Disclosure Day may flip spots as the former should have a smaller decline.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $80.6 million
2. Supergirl
Predicted Gross: $44.5 million
3. Jackass: Best and Last
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
4. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $9 million
5. Disclosure Day
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
Box Office Results (June 19-21)
Toy Story 5 had the second best Disney/Pixar sequel opening in history. That also means it had the second strongest beginning for any animated feature behind Incredibles 2. The return of Woody and Buzz kicked off in line with expectations at $159.6 million. I was a bit more generous with $166.8 million, but this is still a massively pleasing result for the Mouse House.
Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day, after a premiere at the bottom end of its anticipated range, fell a troubling 60% in its sophomore outing to $17.7 million. I figured it would hold a bit better at $21.5 million. That B Cinemascore grade is evidenced by the performance.
Obsession made $13.3 million in third as it’s finally starting to drop from week to week. I had it at $15.2 million and the horror phenomenon has hauled in $215 million after six weeks.
A24 smash Backrooms was fourth with $7.1 million (I said $6.6 million) for a four-week tally of $175 million. The news wasn’t good for A24 everywhere (more on that in a second).
Scary Movie rounded out the top five with $6.3 million, on target with my $6.1 million call. The spoof sequel is near nine digits with $97 million in three weeks.
That aforementioned A24 bad news came from The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman. With middling reviews and non-existent buzz, it bombed in 8th place with $2.8 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction.
The merrily sadistic stunt performers led by Johnny Knoxville return to multiplexes for the final time via Jackass: Best and Last on June 26th. Spawned from the MTV smash show that premiered in 2000, series co-creator Jeff Tremaine directs. In addition to Knoxville, original Jackassers Steve-O, Chris Pontius, Wee Man, Preston Lacy, Dave England, and Danger Ehren are back putting their bodies in harm’s way. Newer cast members Poopies (marking the first time I’ve uttered that word on the blog), Zach Holmes, Rachel Wolfson, and Jasper Dolphin round out the cast.
This is the fifth official entry (excluding successful 2013 spin-off Bad Grandpa) in the cinematic franchise and each has taken in $20M+ out of the gate.2002’s Jackass: The Movie debuted to $22 million with 2006 follow-up Jackass: Number Two starting at $29 million. In 2010, Jackass 3D set high marks for its premiere ($50 million) and overall domestic haul ($117 million). 2022’s Jackass Forever kicked off in line with the first two ($23 million). However, its $57 million stateside gross is the lowest of the quartet.
Unless interest is higher due to the finale status, Best and Last should continue the downward trend. The older this franchise gets, the less younger viewers there are with a nostalgic fondness for it. This could be the first Jackass flick to fall under that $20 million figure and by quite a bit.
Jackass: Best and Last opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
Warner Bros looks for Supergirl to fly high on June 26th as the second feature since James Gunn and Peter Safran took over the DC Studios. Hitting multiplexes a year after Superman had solid if not otherworldly box office results, Craig Gillespie directs Milly Alcock in the title role. Costars include Matthias Schoenaerts, Eve Ridley, David Krumholtz, Emily Beecham, David Corenswet (reprising his turn as the Man of Steel), and Jason Momoa (not as Aquaman but as the villainous Lobo).
Last year, Superman took in $125 million in its opening weekend with $354 million overall domestically. Expectations are nowhere near that range for the second feature about Kal-El’s cousin. The first arrived in 1984 with Helen Slater portraying the title character. It was a significant flop.
Supergirl will try to avoid being the same. Estimates are in the mid 50s range. Anything above $60 million would be considered a pleasant surprise. I’m taking the under and going mid 40s.
Supergirl opening weekend prediction: $44.5 million
For my Jackass: Best and Last prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million. That would put it in outside of the top 5
Toy Story 5 should dominate the upcoming weekend as the franchise enters its fourth decade of existence. The other premiere is Michael Sarnoski’s The Death of Robin Hood with Hugh Jackman in the title role. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
In order to set the series record for highest opening, Disney/Pixar’s fifth round of Woody and Buzz needs to top the $120 million earned by part 4 in 2019. I’ve got it doing that with plenty of room to spare. My prediction also gives it 2026’s largest out of the gate haul currently held by The Super Mario Galaxy Movie with $131 million.
I’m not expecting much from Robin Hood and my fourth place forecast could decrease if the screen count is lower than the 2000-2500 venues I’m assuming. The A24 title seemingly hasn’t picked up much buzz though it’ll hope for some Father’s Day traffic.
Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg got off to a decent if unspectacular beginning (more on that below). The sci-fi adventure hopes for a somewhat meager sophomore frame drop though I’ve got it falling in the low to mid 50s.
Obsession should be third while holdovers Scary Movie and Backrooms should duke it out for fifth place with the latter perhaps having a slight edge.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. Toy Story 5
Predicted Gross: $166.8 million
2. Disclosure Day
Predicted Gross: $21.5 million
3. Obsession
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Backrooms
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
5. Scary Movie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (June 12-14)
In short, everything made less than I projected over the weekend. In more detail, Disclosure Day kicked off in the middle of its anticipated range with $44.5 million. I thought Spielberg’s return to the alien genre would fare better at $51.6 million. The B Cinemascore grade, not encouraging for a blockbuster, suggests a heftier drop than I might’ve originally thought could be coming.
Obsession, in its fifth frame, at last saw it grosses go down. That said, the 25% decline to $19 million gave the horror smash (and now Oscar contender in my view) a total of $188 million thus far.
Scary Movie had a massive 74% fall in weekend #2 with $14.2 million compared to my far more generous $22 million take. The sixth edition in the spoof series sits at $84 million.
Backrooms was fourth with $11.5 million, just under my $12.4 million call. This scary movie has amassed $160 million after three weeks.
Finally, Masters of the Universe solidified placement as a summer flop with a 70% plummet in its sophomore outing with $8.9 million. Once again, my benefit doubting forecast of $13.5 million proved false. The two-week tally is a weak $46 million.
Blogger’s Update (06/17): It is being reported that The Death of Robin Hood is only hitting around 1000 screens so I revising my estimate down from $8 million to a mere $3.8 million
A24, fresh off a studio best opening with Backrooms, aims for respectable grosses with The Death of Robin Hood on June 19th. That could be wishful thinking. Michael Sarnoski, maker of Pig and A Quiet Place: Day One, directs Hugh Jackman in the title role. Supporting players include Jodie Comer, Bill Skarsgård, Murray Bartlett, and Noah Jupe.
The buzz seems quiet for the umpteenth version of the legendary character’s adventures. Critics aren’t overly impressed with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic. The last time we saw Robin Hood onscreen was 2018 with Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx headlining and the result was a highly disappointing $9.1 million debut.
I’ve yet to see a theater count for Jackman’s turn, but I suspect this could fare even worse. Assuming 2000-2500 venues (my projection will change if the number is considerably different), I’ll say it does.
The Death of Robin Hood opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
30 plus years after kicking off the Pixar craze for parent company Disney, Woody and Buzz are back in theaters with Toy Story 5 on June 19th. The beloved franchise arrives seven years after the fourth entry which set a series best in terms of domestic earnings at $434 million. Andrew Stanton, maker of Pixar smashes Finding Nemo and Wall-E, directs his first Toy tale (he had screenwriter or story credit on the previous ones). Tom Hanks and Tim Allen are back voicing their iconic characters as are Joan Cusack, Tony Hale, John Ratzenberger, Wallace Shawn, Blake Clark, Annie Potts, Bonnie Hunt, Melissa Villaseñor, Kristen Schaal, Keanu Reeves, and Ally Maki. Newcomers behind the mic include Greta Lee, Conan O’Brien, Craig Robinson, Bad Bunny, Ernie Hudson, and Alan Cumming.
Each Story since 1995 has topped the grosses of its predecessor (non adjusted for inflation). Toy Story 4 also had the largest opening of the quartet at $120 million (the third did $110 million). Early word-of-mouth suggests this is an improvement over part 4. That should mean this has no trouble setting a new series debut record. It it doesn’t, that would be considered a letdown.
I think the floor is $130 million. While not out of the question that this could surpass it, Pixar’s all-time largest premiere held by Incredibles 2 at $182 million should stay intact. Toy Story 5 should, however, challenge Inside Out 2 at #2 and its $154 million. I’ll say it gets beyond that for the highest 2026 start, besting The Super Mario Galaxy Movie‘s $131 million.
Toy Story 5 opening weekend prediction: $166.8 million
For my The Death of Robin Hood prediction, click here:
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