Box Office Predictions: March 18-20

Two new entries populate the multiplexes this weekend as third YA franchise entry The Divergent Series: Allegiant and faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

While I have Allegiant opening below its predecessors Divergent and Insurgent, it should still manage to end the two week dominance of Zootopia atop the charts. I have Miracles posting a solid third place showing and it could play well into Easter weekend in its sophomore frame if word of mouth is strong.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Zootopia should fall to the runner up position and keep its terrific returns coming. 10 Cloverfield Lane was a hit with the critics but only received a middling B- Cinemascore grade, so I look for its second week drop to be big. Deadpool should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $43.7 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

4. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

Zootopia continued to rule the box office kingdom this weekend with an even smaller than expected drop in weekend #2. The Disney animated tale, fresh off its record setting opening frame, grossed $51.3 million (outpacing my $41.6M estimate) for a $143M total.

10 Cloverfield Lane couldn’t come to close to matching its predecessor’s $40 million premiere in 2008, but managed a respectable $24.7 million (compared to my $28.3M prognosis). Considering its reported small budget, it should turn a nice profit.

London Has Fallen was third in its sophomore weekend with $10.8 million, just above my $9.9M prediction for a ten day total of $39M.

Fourth place was massive hit Deadpool with $10.8 million (a bit higher than my prediction of $9.4M) for a four week tally of $328M.

In fifth was the Tina Fey comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with $4.6 million for a ten day total of $14M. I incorrectly had it outside my top 6 predictions.

That’s because I grossly overestimated two newcomers. There was one exception: rom com The Perfect Match was sixth with $4.2 million. I said $4.1M. At least I was close on that one…

As for The Young Messiah and The Brothers Grimsby… not so much. The faith based drama Messiah opened in seventh at just $3.2 million, way below my generous $12.7M estimate. As for Sacha Baron Cohen’s critically reviled Grimsby, it fared even slightly worse in 8th place with $3.2 million compared to my generous $11.4M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Miracles from Heaven Box Office Prediction

Arriving the week before Easter, the Christian themed drama Miracles from Heaven is out on Wednesday and hopes to bring in a faith based audience. Based on a true story and bestselling novel by Christy Beam, Jennifer Garner stars as a mom whose young daughter suffering from a rare disorder experiences a miraculous cure. Costars include Kylie Rogers, Martin Henderson, and Queen Latifah.

Miracles arrived amidst a series of Christian dramas that includes Risen, The Young Messiah, and God’s Not Dead 2 on April 1. There are signs that this could be the best performer. The novel has a following and this seeks to capitalize on its pre Easter release date.

I’ll predict Heaven achieves a mid teens gross over the traditional weekend and could reach above $20M over the five day rollout.

Miracles from Heaven opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Divergent Series: Allegiant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

The Divergent Series: Allegiant Box Office Prediction

Shailene Woodley and company are back next weekend in The Divergent Series: Allegiant, the third entry in the YA adaptations from author Veronica Roth. The dystopian sci fi pic arrives in the same March slot as its predecessors, 2014’s Divergent and last year’s Insurgent. Director Robert Schwentke is back behind the camera and costars include Theo James, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Naomi Watts, Jeff Daniels, Octavia Spencer, and Zoe Kravitz.

Second installment Insurgent saw a slight dip from the first entry. While Divergent debuted to $54 million and eventually grossed $150M domestic, Insurgent opened at $52 million with an overall $130M tally. Reviews for Allegiant haven’t been kind… it sits at 0% currently on Rotten Tomaotes and I look for its returns to continue diminishing. Even the third and fourth Hunger Games pics saw dips from the first two and this should follow suit.

I’ll say this first Allegiant (the second part arrives in March 2017) will be the first of the series to fall below the $50M mark out of the gate with low to mid 40s being more probable.

The Divergent Series: Allegiant opening weekend prediction: $43.7 million

For my Miracles from Heaven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: March 11-13

Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Young Messiah

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Brothers Grimsby

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.

Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.

Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.

Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.

In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.

Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

The Perfect Match Box Office Prediction

Rom com The Perfect Match hopes to line up moviegoers when it debuts next weekend. Music video director and Honey maker Bille Woodruff is behind the camera with Terrence J, Cassie Ventura, Donald Faison, Paula Patton, Lauren London, Joe Pantoliano, and Brandy Norwood among the cast members.

Lionsgate is hopeful the flick will reach its intended African American audience and these movies often do significantly exceed expectations. Having said that, Match does seem to have a limited footprint in its marketing campaign and I’m not sure this half of the $9 million that Baggage Claim, a similarly themed pic, did three years ago. It also doesn’t that it’s opening on only a reported 850 screens that must be accounted for as well.

The Perfect Match opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Young Messiah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

The Young Messiah Box Office Prediction

Two weeks before the Easter holiday, faith based drama The Young Messiah rises in theaters next weekend hoping to take advantage of the season. Produced by Home Alone and Harry Potter helmer Chris Columbus, Messiah features Adam Greaves-Neal as a young Jesus with Sean Bean costarring.

Shot for a reported small budget of $16.8 million, this shouldn’t have much trouble recouping costs and then some (especially if it experiences meager declines in weekends two and three, which seems feasible). These Christian themed pics are typically tough to project and often do open larger than expected. Just in mid February, Risen (a similarly themed tale appealing to the same audience) took in $11.8 million. That seems a reasonable range for Messiah.

I’ll say it reaches just beyond that and, in doing so, I have it debuting even higher than Sacha Baron Cohen’s The Brothers Grimsby opening against it.

The Young Messiah opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Perfect Match prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

The Brothers Grimsby Box Office Prediction

Sacha Baron Cohen is back in his first starring role in nearly four years with action comedy The Brothers Grimsby and the effort looks to be a real test of his drawing power. From Now You See Me director Louis Leterrier and costarring Mark Strong, Penelope Cruz, Rebel Wilson, Ian McShane, Isla Fisher, and Gabourey Sidibe – Grimsby may represent a low mark for Cohen’s headlining output.

He burst onto the film scene in 2006 with Borat to the tune of a $26 million opening and improved those numbers with Bruno‘s $30 million premiere three years. His last vehicle, 2012’s The Dictator, managed $17 million out of the gate. That number would probably be on the higher end of expectations for this, which is managing an OK 50% on Rotten Tomaotes and looks unlikely to be a breakout hit like he’s experienced in years past.

While Grimsby should reach double digits, I believe it may not get much beyond that for a disappointing haul.

The Brothers Grimsby opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Young Messiah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

For my The Perfect Match prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

10 Cloverfield Lane Box Office Prediction

Is it a sequel? Is it not a sequel? Audiences will find out next Friday when the mysterious 10 Cloverfield Lane debuts. Producer J.J. Abrams (you may have heard of him) describes the picture as a “blood relative” to 2008’s Cloverfield, the sci fi found footage monster flick which scored with audiences to the tune of a $40 million opening. Its final domestic gross was $80M.

This kind of, sort of sequel is as steeped in mystery as its predecessor was eight years ago. Mary Elizabeth Winstead and John Goodman star and the effective survivalist bunker trailer and TV spots (including a Super Bowl ad) have genre lovers quite curious.

How that interest generates to its debut is a bit up in the air. As shown above, the original had a splashy opening but fell quickly (it’s not often a film’s opening weekend is responsible for half its overall take). 10 Cloverfield Lane is not expected to match what the 2008 iteration made, but it could still make a tidy sum.

My suspicion is that this will at least make half of the $40 million Cloverfield did out of the gate and could even threaten to top $30 million. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite get there and an opening in the mid to higher 20s seems more probable.

10 Cloverfield Lane opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Young Messiah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

For my The Perfect Match prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: March 4-6

A quartet of new releases start out the month of March at the box office this weekend. They are Disney Animation’s Zootopia, action sequel London Has Fallen, Tina Fey war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, and British horror entry The Other Side of the Door. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/zootopia-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/london-has-fallen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/whiskey-tango-foxtrot-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/25/the-other-side-of-the-door-box-office-prediction/

Zootopia should have no trouble ending the three week domination of Deadpool atop the charts while I expect London to hit the #2 spot, putting Ryan Reynolds’ vulgar superhero in the three spot with Whiskey placing fourth. Box office dud Gods of Egypt should be fifth in its second weekend, as long as its anticipated hefty decline doesn’t allow Kung Fu Panda 3 to remain in the top five. As for The Other Side of the Door, it’s only opening on around 500 screens and my $2.1 million prediction for it leaves it far outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $54.4 million

2. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million

3. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Gods of Egypt

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)

Box Office Results (February 26-28)

As anticipated, Deadpool maintained the #1 position for the third weekend in a row. The three new entries were, as Donald Trump might say, “low energy”. Ryan Reynolds’ phenomenon took in $31.1 million (compared to my $28M forecast) for a total of $285M.

Gods of Egypt proved to be the first massive bomb of the year as the inexplicably budgeted $140 million action fantasy grossed just $14.1 million, which was on pace with my $13.9M estimate.

Animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3 was third in weekend #5 with $8.8 million, in line with my $8.2M projection for a total gross of $128M.

Biblical drama Risen was fourth in its sophomore frame with $6.8 million, right there with my $7.1M prediction for a ten day total of $22M.

Two newcomers had soft debuts for the fifth and sixth slots. Heist thriller Triple 9 earned $6.1 million (just below my prediction of $6.9M) for fifth while Olympic drama Eddie the Eagle was iced in sixth with only $6 million (I was much kinder with an $11.2M estimate).

And that’ll do it for now. folks! Until next time…

The Other Side of the Door Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s note (Friday, February 26) – due to announced screen count of only about 500, I’m revising my original prediction of $4.1 million to just $2.1 million

British supernatural horror flick The Other Side of the Door opens next weekend and will try to bring in genre fans. Other may find that door closed, as this low budget entry from director Johannes Roberts (who’s helmed a number of scare pics you’ve likely never heard of) seems to be gaining little traction stateside. Sarah Wayne Callies from TV’s “The Walking Dead” and Jeremy Sisto star.

Early reviews have been weak and this probably will be lucky to gross half of what January’s The Boy accomplished with $10.7 million. I’ll say it doesn’t and this should be streaming on VOD quite soon.

The Other Side of the Door opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million