One of the most eagerly awaited titles of 2016 arrives next Friday when the Suicide Squad invades theaters and looks to set some records along the way. The Warner. Bros comic book adaptation has been the beneficiary of positive buzz and terrific trailers. David Ayers writes and directs this tale of DC supervillains that are banded together to try and do some good. The cast includes Will Smith, Margot Robbie (generating her own considerable buzz in her role as Harley Quinn), Joel Kinnaman, Jai Courtney, Jay Hernandez, Viola Davis, and Jared Leto as The Joker (not to mention an apparent Ben Affleck appearance as Batman).
My sense is that Suicide Squad is poised for a massive debut. There are a couple of records that it should have no problem accomplishing. Will Smith’s largest opening is I Am Legend at $77 million. The current August record is Guardians of the Galaxy at $94 million. Consider those records toast.
Recent stories have put the expected opening weekend at $125 million. That is beginning to look like a low bar to this prognosticator. This seems to have at least an equal amount of anticipation and buzz as another harder edged comic book flick from earlier this year, Deadpool. That pic was expected to earn in the mid 60s or so for its roll out and ended up making $132 million out of the gate. Additionally, Deadpool was rated R while this Squad is PG-13 (which could even bring in more eyeballs).
Add all that up and my estimate puts Suicide Squad at the 15th highest domestic opening of all time – right between Furious 7 at $147.1 million and The Twilight Saga: New Moon at $142.8 million for what looks to be a major new franchise.
Suicide Squad opening weekend prediction: $144.3 million
**Blogger’s Note: Mid-week numbers for NERVE has significantly upgraded my estimate to $10.8M for Friday to Sunday and $16.3M for Wednesday to Sunday. These changes are reflected in the breakdown for the top 10 below. – TT
***Blogger’s note 2 (07/28/16) CafeSociety opening on less screens that I anticipated. My $3.8M Estimate now revised down to $2.3M, outside of top ten.
The final weekend of July comes at us with three new debuts: Matt Damon’s return as Jason Bourne, raunchy comedy Bad Moms, and techno thriller Nerve. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, Mr. Bourne should have no trouble ruling the charts and I have the fifth franchise entry (and first with Damon in nearly a decade) falling just short of the series high debut of $69 million for 2007’s The Bourne Ultimatum.
It’s after that where things get a little more interesting. The battle for second place could be a close one as I have Bad Moms posting a very solid debut that may put it in close proximity to the second weekend of current champ Star Trek Beyond.
As for the rest of the top five, The Secret Life of Pets should easily hold the fourth spot while a three-way battle for #5 should be fought between Ghostbusters, Lights Out, and Ice Age: Collision Course (all of which posted similar grosses this past weekend). I’m estimating Ghostbusters will have the smallest decline of the trio and manage to stay put at the five spot.
Then there’s Nerve, which opens Wednesday. I’m not expecting much out of it – so much so that I’m placing it ninth after Finding Dory in 8th.
AND we have another title that count enter the top ten this weekend as Woody Allen’s Cafe Society expands nationwide. It’s been performing well in limited release and could have a decent roll out elsewhere. There’s no theater count yet, which makes this estimate a bit tricky – but if it opens on around 900 screens (par for the course for Woody pics), I’ll put it at $3.8 million. That would be good for 10th place just ahead of The Legend of Tarzan.
So we shall expand my typical top 5 predictions and go with a top 10 for this weekend:
Jason Bourne
Predicted Gross: $67.6 million
2. Star Trek Beyond
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
3. Bad Moms
Predicted Gross: $26 million
4. The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
5. Ghostbusters
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
6. Nerve
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. Lights Out
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
8. Ice Age: Collision Course
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
9. Finding Dory
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
10. The Legend of Tarzan
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (July 22-24)
As expected, Star Trek Beyond easily topped the box office with $59.2 million, reaching beyond my $53.4M prediction. Both its predecessors in the current iteration of the franchise made over $70M for their starts, but this is still a respectable showing and should be enough to see the series chugging along.
The Secret Life of Pets slipped to second after two weeks on top with $29.6 million, above my $24.9M projection. The smash hit animated feature has amassed $260M so far and surprised all by accomplishing more in weekend 3 than Ice Age: Collision Course in weekend 1 (more on that below).
Perhaps the brightest spot of the weekend belonged to third place Lights Out, the critically acclaimed micro budgeted horror flick which earned $21.6 million. That’s a quadrupling of its $5 million price tag and a doubling of my meager $10.2 million projection. Good reviews and James Wan’s participation clearly helped.
The aforementioned Ice Age: Collision Course proved to be a franchise on thin ice as family audiences mostly rejected it. It grossed $21.3 million for fourth place (below my $28.3M estimate) for an embarrassing franchise low by a lot – the previous low was the 2002 original’s $46.3M. Ouch.
Ghostbusters rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $21 million (just above my $19.8M forecast) for an $86 million total.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
**Blogger’s Note (07/28) – Mid-week numbers have necessitated a major upgrade in my Nerve prediction. I’m keeping the original post below with my (extremely) low ball estimate, but I now will predict numbers of a $10.8M Friday to Sunday gross and $16.3M Wednesday to Sunday gross.
The team behind the creepy 2010 documentary Catfish and its MTV series spin-off returns to theme of online high jinks in the thriller Nerve, out Wednesday next week. Based on a 2012 YA novel, the pic is directed by the aforementioned Henry Joost and Ariel Schulman and stars Emma Roberts, Dave Franco, and Juliette Lewis.
This pic seems to be flying quite a bit under the radar and I just don’t envision this being able to break out. It appears to me that Lionsgate likely has a flop on their hands. For a movie about social media based gaming – unless this somehow involves capturing Pokemon, I don’t expect Nerve to strike much of one with audiences.
Nerve opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $5.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, and Kathryn Hahn headline the raunchy R rated comedy Bad Moms, hitting theaters next weekend. The pic will attempt to bring in a sizable female audience whose significant others may be busy with Jason Bourne. It could be a formula for success.
Moms is directed by Jon Lucas and Scott Moore, who are responsible for writing 2009’s The Hangover and the marketing campaign isn’t shy about highlighting that. Costars include Christina Applegate, Annie Mumolo, Jada Pinkett Smith, and Jay Hernandez.
The simple concept – Moms Gone Wild! – should be an easy sell for a summer comedy. It may not reach the heights of last summer’s critically lauded Trainwreck (another female driven R rated comedy), but I don’t see much reason why it wouldn’t match or top another one – 2014’s The Other Woman, which managed $24.7 million out of the gate.
Matt Damon and director Paul Greengrass return to their blockbuster franchise after nearly a decade when Jason Bourne hits theaters next weekend. Originating from the novels by Robert Ludlum, this sequel may succeed in not being a box office letdown as a number of others have this season. Alicia Vikander, Tommy Lee Jones, Julia Stiles, Vincent Cassel, and Riz Ahmed are among the costars.
Let’s take a trip down Bourne franchise history lane, shall we? In 2002, The Bourne Identity became a summer sleeper hit with a $27 million debut and $121 million overall domestic gross. The numbers increased with the 2004 follow-up The Bourne Supremacy (when Greengrass took over directorial duties). It had a $52 million premiere and $176 million eventual tally. In 2007, third entry The Bourne Ultimatum hit the high marks with a $69 million opening and $227 million take.
It was after Ultimatum that Damon and Greengrass departed the critically acclaimed and audience approved pics. 2012 brought The Bourne Legacy, which cast Jeremy Renner as a new operative. While it scored a respectable $38 million debut, its $113 million domestic haul was a franchise low.
Four years later – the team behind the two most successful Bourne‘s return and my hunch is that moviegoers will be ready for it. This is quite simply a well-regarded series and it doesn’t hurt that Mr. Damon is coming off an Oscar nominated turn and mega-hit with The Martian. The question to me is whether or not this manages to top the opening of Ultimatum. It might and it wouldn’t surprise me, but my projection has it falling just short of that $69M number for a movie in which sequelitis should not apply.
Jason Bourne opening weekend prediction: $67.6 million
The 2016 presidential race may be omnipresent on your small screen for these two weeks (and through November for that matter), but this political season also comes to theaters this weekend as Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party opens wide.
Dinesh D’Souza directs this documentary focused on the presumptive Democratic Party nominee and let’s just say it’s unlikely to be played at next week’s convention for its title subject. D’Souza’s works have a decidedly conservative bent – as evidence by 2012’s 2016: Obama’s America. That pic became the 4th highest grossing documentary of all time domestically and 2nd highest one with a political bent after 2004’s Fahrenheit 9/11. It earned $6.5 million in its initial weekend of wide release with an eventual gross of $32.9 million.
Arriving smack dab in the middle of the Republican and Democratic National Conventions, Hillary’s America will look to capitalize on its release date and interest from conservatives who made D’Souza’s previous doc a hit. I see no reason why this wouldn’t accomplish its mission and I have slated to open slightly higher.
Hillary’s America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Three new titles hit screens this weekend as sequels Star Trek Beyond and Ice Age: Collision Course look to battle for the top spot with low-budget horror pic Lights Out opening as well. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:
My estimates have both sequels not bringing in what their predecessors managed. I have Beyond slated to debut about 25% lower than 2013’s Star Trek Into Darkness with Collision Course premiering a bit below 2012’s Ice Age: Continental Drift. That would give Beyond the edge to open at #1 with Course placing second. My just over double digits projections for Lights Out would put it in fifth.
As for holdovers, two-week champ The Secret Life of Pets should dip to third. Many eyes will be on the second weekend of Ghostbusters, which pretty much debuted in line with expectations (more on that below). However, it may be its second week performance that helps determine its true viability as a budding franchise. I have it losing more than half its audience.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
Star Trek Beyond
Predicted Gross: $53.4 million
2. Ice Age: Collision Course
Predicted Gross: $28.3 million
3. The Secret Life of Pets
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Ghostbusters
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
5. Lights Out
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (July 15-17)
Moviegoers called up The Secret Life of Pets and not the Ghostbusters for their most favored title this weekend as the animated mega-hit took in $50.8 million (under my $57.6M prediction) for a ten-day tally of $203M.
The Ghostbusters, as mentioned, premiered in line with most expectations at $46 million – not quite reaching my $47.3M projection. The reboot of the beloved 80s franchise may need a solid second weekend to justify its existence as a franchise. I have my doubts.
The Legend of Tarzan was third, grossing $11.4 million (I was close with $11.1M) and crossing the century mark for a $103M total.
Finding Dory took fourth with $11.2 million. My guess? $11.2M! The Pixar smash and biggest hit of the year thus far has amassed $445M.
Sophomoric comedy Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates rounded out the top five in its sophomore weekend with $7.6 million (a bit under my $8.9M estimate) for a total of $31M.
Finally, the Bryan Cranston crime thriller The Infiltrator landed in seventh place – debuting with $5.3 million over the traditional weekend and $6.7 million since its Wednesday. This just outpaced my respective predictions of $4.6M and $6.1M.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
With its tiny budget of just a reported $5 million, horror pic Lights Out looks to make a tidy profit for Warner Bros when it debuts next Friday. It may star Teresa Palmer, Gabriel Bateman, Billy Burke and Maria Bello, but the biggest name involved is James Wan. He serves as a producer and is the man behind the Conjuring and Insidious franchises.
The film premiered at the Los Angeles Film Festival last month to positive notices and it currently stands at an illuminating 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Critical praise does not equal potent box office returns in this genre, but Lights Out should still manage double digits for its start and that’s enough for its studio to see a decent return.
Lights Out opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
20th Century Fox’s Ice Age franchise keeps rolling along as Collision Course glides into theaters next weekend. It is the fifth in the series that began in 2002 and the four previous pictures have performed pleasingly. Predecessor Continental Drift was the lowest grosser thus far, but not by much with a $46 million opening and $161 million overall take. 2009’s Dawn of the Dinosaurs was the series high point with $196 million.
Ray Romano, John Leguizamo, Denis Leary, Queen Latifah, Jennifer Lopez, and Simon Pegg (pulling double duty over the weekend with Star Trek Beyond) all return for their voice over work with Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Adam Devine, and Nick Offerman joining the party.
Animals and animation have been a potent box office combo in 2016 and that does mean competition as The Secret Life of Pets should still be raking it in in weekend #3. That could dent Collision Course a bit and I do expect it to post the lowest opening weekend of the franchise so far by a rather substantial margin.
Ice Age: Collision Course opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million
The crew of the USS Enterprise returns for the third time in this current iteration as Star Trek Beyond debuts next weekend with a new director and somewhat decreased expectations. Chris Pine’s Captain Kirk and Zachary Quinto’s Spock headline with crew members Zoe Saldana, Karl Urban, Simon Pegg, John Cho, and Anton Yelchin (who tragically passed away last month) back. Main villain duties are handled by Idris Elba.
J.J. Abrams made the first two franchise entries and he’s still on board as executive producer, but as you may know – he departed for another series with the word Star in it. Justin Lin, known for directing parts 3-6 of the Fast and Furious pics, takes over. Abrams was able to reinvigorate Trek world in 2009 when the reboot opened to $75 million with an eventual $257 million domestic tally. The 2013 follow-up, Star Trek Into Darkness, was a bit lower with a $70 million premiere and overall $228 million gross.
It’s my expectation that Beyond will continue the downward trend and it could be more pronounced here. Excitement for this seems muted. In short, the third time may not be the charm in a summer where we’ve seen a number of sequels not match up to their predecessors. My estimate has this opening about 25% below Darkness and the chances of Beyond going beyond $200 million like the first two appears to be out of reach.
Star Trek Beyond opening weekend prediction: $53.4 million
For my Ice Age: Collision Course prediction, click here:
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