For the past month, Disney’s mega-hit Zootopia has cornered the family market and stampeded to a current gross of over $275 million. The next kiddie friendly blockbuster looks to be the studio’s own The Jungle Book, which swings into theaters next weekend.
From Iron Man director Jon Favreau, this animal tale remakes Disney’s 1967 animated pic based on Rudyard Kipling’s celebrated works. It also continues their recent trend (Maleficent, Cinderella) of live action remaking titles from their storied past. Book casts newcomer Neel Sethi as young Mowgli with lots of familiar faces voicing the creatures. That list includes Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley, Idris Elba, Scarlett Johansson, and Lupita N’Yongo.
As I see it, The Jungle Book appears primed for a terrific opening in range with the aforementioned Mouse Factory products. 2014’s Maleficent debuted to $69 million. Last year’s Cinderella premiered with $67 million. Their respective domestic hauls were $241M and $201M. Interestingly, just today, Warner Bros own Jungle Book remake (directed by Andy Serkis) has been pushed from 2017 to 2018.
Boasting a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score should only further positive word of mouth. I believe this could potentially top the remakes that came before it and exceed $70 million.
The Jungle Book opening weekend prediction: $74.6 million
For my Barbershop: The Next Cut prediction, click here:
Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy The Boss will look to demote Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice to the runner-up spot when it opens this weekend. Additionally, the video game like action pic Hardcore Henry debuts. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of the newbies here:
I have The Boss opening a bit under what some recent McCarthy pictures have accomplished over the last three years. Still, considering the hefty sophomore decline that BvS experienced this past weekend (more on that below), it could create a photo finish for the top spot. My estimates have the Caped Crusader and Man of Steel slightly ahead for a narrow three-peat, as I see it dipping just over 50% in weekend 3.
As for the rest of the top five, Zootopia should easily manage a third place showing, as long as Hardcore Henry doesn’t rather significantly exceed expectations. I actually have Henry in a tight battle with My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 for the four spot and have it a bit ahead.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. The Boss
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 23%)
4. Hardcore Henry
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (April 1-3)
All eyes were on the second weekend of Batman v Justice: Dawn of Justice, which had a terrific opening but was subjected to so-so audience word of mouth and many harsh reviews. The drop was even more significant than most prognosticated as it fell a steep 69% to $51.3 million (below my $59.1M prediction). The Warner Bros. tent pole has taken in $260 million in 10 days and while those numbers are nothing to sneeze at, the studio has to be at least a little concerned with a fall that massive.
Zootopia easily held the #2 spot with $19.3 million in its fifth weekend, zooming past my $14.9M estimate. The Disney animated smash has earned $275M so far.
In third was My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $11.2 million in its second weekend (I went a little under with $9.4M) for a $36M total. While it won’t even reach a third of its predecessor’s $241M domestic haul from 14 years ago, it’s still doing respectable business.
Faith based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match the opening of its predecessor two years ago. It made $7.6 million (I predicted $9.6M), which is under the $9.2M achieved by the original (which only debuted on half the number of screens).
Another Christian themed feature, Miracles from Heaven, rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, ahead of my $5.7M prognosis for a three-week gross of $46M.
Finally, the weekend’s other debut – the Mike Epps Purge spoof Meet the Blacks – exceeded most expectations in 8th place with $4 million, just ahead of my $3.7M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
When Hardcore Henry premiered at the Toronto Film Festival last year, it set off a wave of positive buzz to the tune of a current 94% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. The sci-fi action thriller is touted as a “first person” experience in which the audience sees all the destruction and mayhem through the eyes of the title character. Sharlto Copley and Tim Roth are among the cast.
How will this experimental pic translate to box office dollars? I’m not overly optimistic. While certain fanboys have had this circled on their calendars for months now, I just don’t see this getting beyond a niche audience and I don’t believe it’ll reach double digits. So while Hardcore Henry could certainly become a cult hit, it may not necessarily become a real hit at the multiplexes.
Hardcore Henry opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Melissa McCarthy’s first comedy of 2016 is her second most anticipated of the year as The Boss debuts next weekend. Directed by her hubby Ben Falcone (who also made 2014’s Tammy), his wife plays a member of the 1% guilty of insider trading trying to rehabilitate her image. Kristen Bell, Peter Dinklage, and Kathy Bates costar.
Since her breakout role in 2011’s Bridesmaids, McCarthy has been a force in the genre. 2013’s Identity Thief made $34 million out of the gate while that same year’s collaboration with Sandra Bullock, The Heat, earned $39 million. The aforementioned Tammy took in $21 million over the July 4th, 2014 three day weekend with a $33 million five-day haul. Last summer’s Spy opened to $29 million.
Her comedies have proven to be mostly critic proof (Tammy was met with derision) and that should apply here. However, I’m a little skeptical that this reaches the mid-high 30s heights of her largest openers and I’d be somewhat surprised if this one tops $25 million. That is not likely to be the case with July’s eagerly anticipated Ghostbusters reboot that McCarthy is featured in. For The Boss, low to mid 20s seems to be the strongest probability.
The Boss opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
After a record-breaking Easter weekend for two iconic superheroes, the first weekend of April brings a slowdown as only two non major studio pics debut. They are faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead 2 and Mike Epps’ Purge parody Meet the Blacks. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Let’s get the newbies out of the way first. I look for God’s Not Dead 2 to open within the same range as its predecessor two years ago. That should leave it in a close battle with the second weekend of My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which I have falling by almost half.
As for Meet the Blacks, it’s only opening on about 1000 screens and I believe it will be lucky to reach $5 million. My $3.7 million estimate for it leaves it outside the top five.
Zootopia should continue its smallish declines and retain the #2 position. Miracles from Heaven should round out the top five, as long as Blacks doesn’t exceed my estimate.
That leaves the biggest question of the week: how much will Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice drop in its sophomore weekend? Down below, you can read all about its record-setting debut. Critics have not been kind and its B Cinemascore grade indicates that even audiences aren’t exactly loving it. Here’s how some other tent poles dipped in their second weekends (all of these titles made between $147-$191M out of the gate):
Avengers: Age of Ultron – 59%
Iron Man 3 – 58%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 – 72%
The Dark Knight Rises – 61%
Spider-Man 3 – 61%
Furious 7 – 59%
Then there’s 2013’s Man of Steel, which serves as Justice‘s predecessor. It didn’t have the greatest buzz either and dropped 64% after a $116 million debut.
So where does that leave us? I actually believe BvS is going to fall right around with where Man of Steel did (63-65 percent).
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $59.1 million (representing a drop of 64%)
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 38%)
3. God’s Not Dead 2
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (March 25-27)
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice accomplished having the seventh largest opening of all time and kick starting Warner Bros. Justice League features and intended spin-offs to the tune of a $166 million debut. My prognosis? $166.4M! Pretty happy with this one. While critics were mostly not kind (a 29% Rotten Tomatoes score), audience anticipation was clearly peaked. It just missed being its studio’s biggest opener (the final Harry Potter did $169M), but it did set the record for the month of March and highest Easter performer. The big question, as mentioned above, is how far it falls in weekend #2 and I’m predicting it’ll be rather precipitous.
Zootopia took the runner-up spot with $24 million (in line with my $23.4M estimate) for a four-week tally of $241 million.
Opening in third and with higher than anticipated numbers was long gestating comedy sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 with $17.8 million, above my $13.1M projection. This is a positive result considering reviews were poor and it had been 14 years since the mega hit original. This was never expected to approach the amazing $241M the first Wedding pocketed and it certainly won’t, but overall this is a fine result.
In a close battle for fourth among features in their second weekends, Miracles from Heaven edged out The Divergent Series: Allegiant. The faith-based Heaven capitalized on the Easter weekend with $9.6 million (a bit below my $10.9M estimate) for a total of $34M. Allegiant continued its plummet with $9.4 million (under my $12.7M projection) for an overall gross of $46M. It may top out at just around $65M – its two predecessors made $150M and $130M, respectively. Ouch.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
In the near future, comedian Mike Epps could see a real turning point in his film career when he portrays Richard Pryor in an upcoming biopic directed by Lee Daniels and costarring Oprah Winfrey and Eddie Murphy. In the meantime, Meet the Blacks opens this Friday in theaters and it appears unlikely to do much for anybody’s careers.
Debuting on a fairly low reported 1000 screens, Blacks is a low budget parody of The Purge franchise. Epps headlines with Zulay Henao, Gary Owen, George Lopez, Mike Tyson, and Charlie Murphy among the supporting players.
Meet the Blacks seems unlikely to break out and the minimal number of screens doesn’t help. If this were to get roughly the same per screen average as A Haunted House 2 from two years ago, that would give it less than $4 million. That sounds about right.
Meet the Blacks opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Two years ago, the faith based drama God’s Not Dead turned into quite the sleeper hit. After opening with a surprisingly robust $9.2 million, it held firmly in subsequent weekends to the tune of a $60 million overall gross.
Now we have a sequel opening next weekend and God’s Not Dead 2 has plenty of similarities to the original. For one – a rather eclectic cast. Part one boasted both TV’s Hercules (Kevin Sorvo) and Superman (Dean Cain). The sequel has Melissa Joan Hart of “Sabrina, the Teeange Witch” fame, “Desperate Housewives” alum Jesse Metcalfe, the late Tennesse Senator and actor Fred Thompson, Mike Tyson’s ex Robin Givens, and fourth Ghostbuster Ernie Hudson. I wasn’t kidding, folks!
The original was made on a reported $2 million budget and while I couldn’t find a reported price tag for this, it’s probably not much and it shouldn’t have much trouble turning a profit. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll earn as much as its predecessor. There has been a bunch of similar genre pics in recent weeks (Miracles from Heaven, Risen, The Young Messiah) and that could have some effect.
I look for this to open in the same range as the first and perhaps just above it, but it may not have the legs to get to an eventual $60M domestic tally.
God’s Not Dead 2 opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
Two iconic superheroes look to set an all-time March opening weekend record as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuts Friday, along with rom com sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As outlined in the individual prediction on Dawn of Justice, it stands a real shot at becoming March’s biggest opener if it manages to get past the $152 million accomplished by The Hunger Games four years ago. I’m predicting that it will.
As for Greek Wedding 2, it’s the sequel to the highest earning romantic comedy in box office history. However, I believe the 14 year gap with this sequel could mean an opening in the low teens.
When it comes to holdovers, Zootopia should drop to second after 3 weeks on top while The Divergent Series: Allegiant looks to suffer a much heftier drop in its sophomore frame than Miracles from Heaven, which should capitalize on the Easter weekend. In fact, I see a genuine photo finish for the three spot between Wedding, Miracles, and Allegiant.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Predicted Gross: $166.4 million
2. Zootopia
Predicted Gross: $23.4 million
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. TheDivergentSeries: Allegiant
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
5. Miracles from Heaven
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
Box Office Results (March 18-20)
Disney’s Zootopia made it three weeks in a row on top with $37.1 million, a bit higher than my $32M forecast. The smash hit animated pic has earned $200M thus far and reaching above $300M now looks to be a foregone conclusion.
The results were not so hot for The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which posted the lowest numbers by far of the franchise to date. While 2014’s Divergent premiered to $54 million and Insurgent made $52 million, Allegiant managed just $29 million compared to my $43.7M prediction. This doesn’t bode well for part two of Allegiant, out next summer.
The faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debuted in third with a sturdy $14.8 million (just under my $15.8M projection) and a five day total of $18.3 million since its Wednesday opening (I said $20.8M). As mentioned, look for this continue to perform solidly this coming Easter frame.
10 Clovefield Lane was fourth in its second weekend with $12.5 million (I said $10.1M) and its two week total is $45M. Deadpool rounded out the top five with $8 million (I was close with $7.2M) for a cume of $340M.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Next weekend, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 will deal with something its predecessor never had to: expectations. The 2002 original (with a puny $5 million budget) came out of nowhere to become the highest grossing romantic comedy of all time, grossing $241 million domestically and earning an Oscar nomination for Best Original Screenplay.
Original stars Nia Vardalos and John Corbett are back, along with returnees Lainie Kazan, Michael Constantine, Andrea Martin, and Joey Fatone and newbies John Stamos and Rita Wilson (who co-produces like last time alongside her hubby Tom Hanks).
While the first Wedding was a rousing success story that defied any prognostications, it doesn’t help that it occurred fourteen years ago. That’s a long time between sequels and it hinders the possibility of younger audiences turning out that might not even be aware of the original’s existence. This is obviously aiming for female counter programming against Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, which should draw a huge male audience.
Comedy sequels (especially long gestating ones) are a risky proposition, as Ben Stiller just learned with Zoolander No. 2. If this manages to reach $20 million or beyond in its opening weekend, that should be considered a win. Obviously, this stands zero shot at even reaching a third of its sleeper hit predecessor. I’m actually skeptical this reaches $15M and I’ll predict it won’t.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
For my Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice prediction, click here:
Technically it may be a follow up to 2013’s Man of Steel, but next weekend’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is considerably more than that. This is Warner Bros kick off to a slew of Justice League and stand alone comic book adaptations that unloads the top characters in the DC Universe arsenal. It is the first pairing of the two most iconic superheroes on Earth, with Henry Cavill reprising his role as Supes and Ben Affleck becoming the fifth high profile actor over the last quarter century plus to don the Bat Suit (excluding Will Arnett’s voice over work in The LEGO Movie). Zack Snyder, who made Steel, returns to direct with that predecessor’s performers Amy Adams, Diane Lane, and Laurence Fishburne back. Jesse Eisenberg makes his debut as Lex Luthor (with hair!), Jeremy Irons is butler Alfred, and Gal Gadot is Wonder Woman, soon to be in her own pic. Same goes for Jason Momoa as Aquaman, in addition to other cameos.
To say a lot is riding on Justice is quite an understatement. Its reported budget is at least $250 million and it’s had a vigorous marketing campaign that has lasted for months. The success of its future franchise entries are likely to be directly tied to its performance. Early speculation on its opening weekend possibilities are varied. While trailer reaction to February’s Deadpool and the upcoming Captain America: Civil War has been quite strong, there’s been a decidedly more mixed reception here. Some feel this might not reached the $132 million reached by Deadpool, which would be considered pretty disappointing. On the other hand, pre-release tracking is strong and outpacing both the Ryan Reynolds dirty superhero tale and Furious 7, which made $147 million out of the gate. This should, at the least, achieve becoming the highest Superman opening, topping Steel’s $116 million. It has a quite realistic shot at best March premiere if it manages to fly past the $152 million achieved by 2012’s The Hunger Games.
So where do I come out here? This is a tough call. I don’t see this making less than $125 million. I’m also skeptical that a gross matching or opening higher than, say, last year’s Avengers sequel at $191 million is a stretch (though you never know). My feeling is that this might open in range with the last two Dark Knight entries, which opened to $158 and $160 million, respectively. If it tops that, that would give it the distinction of largest start for a Bat flick. I’ll predict it comes just beyond those numbers.
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening weekend prediction: $166.4 million
For my My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 prediction, click here:
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