Tag: box office predictions

CHiPs Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Note (03/23): I am revising down my box office estimate to $8.4 million names on putrid reviews and lowered expectations.

A film that has challenged my ability to properly use capital and lower case letters in its title, CHiPs opens in theaters next weekend. The buddy cop comedy is a more humorous take on the 1970s-80s TV series that starred Larry Wilcox and Erik Estrada. Taking over their roles as California highway patrolmen are Dax Shepard (who also directs) and Michael Pena. Costars include Vincent D’Onofrio, Adam Brody, and Shepard’s real-life spouse Kristen Bell.

Warner Bros. originally had this pegged as a late summer release before bumping it to March. I don’t foresee this approaching, say, Starsky and Hutch numbers from 2004. That was also based on a buddy cop series from the same era, but its headliners Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson had considerably more drawing power at the time than Shepard and Pena.

The good news for the studio: CHiPs comes with a reported budget of just $25 million. I believe this vehicle could achieve over half of that in its opening weekend. That would put it behind other newbies Power Rangers and Life, but it’s not too shabby.

CHiPs opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million (prediction changed from $13.2M)

For my Power Rangers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/15/power-rangers-box-office-prediction/

For my Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/15/life-box-office-prediction/

Life Box Office Prediction

Movies with outer space/alien themes have been quite the hot commodity as of late with blockbusters such as Gravity, Interstellar, The Martian, and Arrival. Next weekend, Daniel Espinosa’s Life will try and join their ranks for what could be an uphill battle.

The pic pits a crew from the International Space Station against an alien creature who may have greater intelligence than they do. Jake Gyllenhaal, Ryan Reynolds, and Rebecca Ferguson headline. This marks director Espinosa’s second collaboration with Reynolds after 2012’s Safe House.

Audiences have certainly had plenty of this type of material in recent years and I’m not sure the trailers and TV spots for Life stand out. It certainly appears unlikely to match the opening weekend grosses of the other genre titles listed above. On the other hand, the participation of Reynolds (hot off Deadpool) won’t hurt and a high teens to mid 20s lift off seems most probable. That should put it firmly in third behind the second weekend of Beauty and the Beast and premiere of Power Rangers.

Life opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million

For my Power Rangers prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/15/power-rangers-box-office-prediction/

For my CHiPs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/16/chips-box-office-prediction/

Power Rangers Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate is hoping that a wave of 90s nostalgia will propel Power Rangers to powerful grosses when it debuts next weekend. The reported $105 million product is a reboot of the popular kids cartoon that spawned two (not very well-regarded) pics in the mid 1990s.

Franchise creator Haim Saban produces this venture with Dean Israelite directing. A cast of relative unknowns (Dacre Montgomery, Naomi Scott, RJ Cyler, Becky G, Ludi Lin) play our young title characters. More familiar faces including Bryan Cranston, Elizabeth Banks, and the voice of Bill Hader are among the supporting cast.

Rangers is banking on capturing the same audience that responded well to the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles refresh recently. Its 2014 return spawned a much more than expected $65 million opening. Last year’s sequel, Out of the Shadows, didn’t measure up with a $35 million premiere.

My instinct is that Power Rangers could certainly over perform, but it will likely reach the mid 30s that Shadows accomplished. I believe those initial Turtles numbers could be unreachable. The earlier Rangers flicks weren’t huge successes. In 1995, Mighty Morphin Power Rangers made $13 million out of the gate with an eventual $38M overall tally. Its spin-off two years later, Turbo: A Power Rangers Movie, was an outright flop with only $8 million total domestically.

Bottom line: I believe the nostalgia factor will come into play and should be enough to make this is a solid second behind the sophomore weekend of Beauty and the Beast.

Power Rangers opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million

For my Life prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/15/life-box-office-prediction/

For my CHiPs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/16/chips-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: March 17-19

Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast looks to dominate the box office this weekend as The Belko Experiment also debuts with what will likely be a soft opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/08/beauty-and-the-beast-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/10/the-belko-experiment-box-office-prediction/

It should be a fascinating weekend to track as St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Friday and a good portion of the East Coast might be digging out of expected blizzard like conditions. Even with those potential obstacles, I’m still projecting Beast will achieve a monstrous opening that would place it 10th in all-time domestic debuts.

As for Belko, my $3.2 million projection would put it in a weak seventh place.

Regarding holdovers, Kong: Skull Island premiered above expectations (a trend in the month of March) and looks to lose in the mid-high 50s in weekend #2. Logan, Get Out, and The Shack should populate the rest of the top five.

And with that, my projections for the weekend:

1. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $158.8 million

2. Kong: Skull Island

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Logan

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

5. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)

Box Office Results (March 10-12)

Kong: Skull Island exceeded most prognosticators estimates with a robust $61 million, well above my $48.6M prediction. The ape tale was assisted by mostly positive reviews and look for the title character to return vs. Godzilla in three years.

Logan dropped to second in its sophomore weekend with $38.1 million, a bit shy of my $42.5M projection. The acclaimed comic book pic is up to $152M thus far.

Get Out continued its stunning grosses with $20.7 million for  third place – on track with my take of $19.8M. It’s up to $110M.

The Shack held nicely in weekend #2 with $10 million (I said $10.7M) for $32M total. The Lego Batman Movie rounded out the top five with $7.6 million compared to my $6.8M guesstimate. The domestic total for it is $158M.

And that’ll do it for now! Until next time…

The Belko Experiment Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, the horror thriller The Belko Experiment debuts in theaters and it will attempt to serve as counter programming to Disney’s likely box office behemoth Beauty and the Beast. That could be an uphill battle.

Belko comes from director Greg McLean, who last helmed 2016’s underwhelming performer The Darkness. Its screenwriter is of more note – James Gunn, who directed Guardians of the Galaxy and its upcoming May sequel. The pic is set in Bogota, Columbia with a group of employees pitted against one another in a violent social experiment. Stars include John Gallagher Jr., Tony Goldwyn, Adria Arjona, John C. McGinley, and Michael Rooker.

This debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to so-so buzz and it currently sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. The marketing campaign has been rather soft and it’s only slated to open on about 1200 screens.

Add that up and I believe Belko will debut poorly and fade quickly.

The Belko Experiment opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Beauty and the Beast prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/08/beauty-and-the-beast-box-office-prediction/

Beauty and the Beast Box Office Prediction

Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast arrives in theaters next weekend and it looks poised for quite a fantastic opening. Bill Condon serves behind the camera (he directed the last two Twilight installments recently) with Emma Watson as Belle and Dan Stevens as the Beast. Costars include Luke Evans, Kevin Kline, Josh Gad, Ian McKellen, Ewan McGregor, Stanley Tucci, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, and Emma Thompson.

The Mouse Factory has had tremendous success with their reboots of their classic animated tales. 2014’s Maleficent took in $241 million stateside. The following year, Cinderella cleared $200 million. Last year’s The Jungle Book scored even more impressively with $364 million.

Beauty stands a great shot at outdoing them all. For starters, the 1991 original is beloved (it was the first animated feature to nab a Best Picture nomination). The Disney marketing machine has been in high gear and turnout among youngsters and females in particular should be substantial. Reviews (while not gushing) have been solid and it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes.

There is little doubt that this will post 2017’s largest opening so far. Just how high can it go? I am predicting it will achieve one of the top ten domestic premieres of all time. My estimate puts it at #10, right in between The Dark Knight Rises and The Dark Knight for a truly beast mode roll out.

Beauty and the Beast opening weekend prediction: $158.8 million

For my The Belko Experiment prediction, click here:

The Belko Experiment Box Office Prediction

 

Box Office Predictions: March 10-12

Warner Bros is hoping audiences will want to go into beast mode this weekend as Kong: Skull Island is unveiled in theaters. It’s the only new wide release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Kong: Skull Island Box Office Prediction

The ape tale should top the box office, but if it comes in below my high 40s forecast, the second weekend of Logan (which opened fantastically this past weekend) could give it a run for its money. I do expect the acclaimed Wolverine tale to dip a bit more than 50%.

Get Out experienced a very small decline in its sophomore frame and should continue its terrific run in third place. The Shack was a hit with faith based crowds and I have it with a smallish decline in its second weekend with The Lego Batman Movie dropping to fifth.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Kong: Skull Island

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. Logan

Predicted Gross: $42.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 30%)

4. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (March 3-5)

Logan, with its terrific reviews and buzz from being Hugh Jackman’s final appearance in his signature role, posted a sizzling $88.4 million debut. That’s the third highest X-Men opening of the nine pictures of the franchise. It came in at the most optimistic level of expectations and blew away my meager $68.6M forecast.

The other story of the week: the remarkable hold of Get Out, which dipped only 15% and earned $28.2 million in weekend two (besting my $20M prediction). Its ten day total is at $78 million – or over 15 times its budget to put it in perspective.

Oh… and the third story of the weekend was the robust third place premiere of The Shack. It earned a sturdy $16.1 million, outshining my $9.7M estimate.

The Lego Batman Movie dipped to fourth with $11.7 million, in line with my $11.1M prognosis for a total of $148M. John Wick: Chapter 2 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $5.6M) to brings its tally to $82M.

Debuting quietly in sixth was YA thriller Before I Fall with just $4.6 million, a tad under my $5.3M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Kong: Skull Island Box Office Prediction

The most famous ape in movie history in back on screen for the first time in over a decade when Kong: Skull Island debuts next weekend. With a reported $190 million budget, Warner Bros. is hoping to keep their monster franchise reaping big grosses as they move toward a planned Godzilla/Kong pic.

Jordan Vogt-Roberts directs and he’s certainly an interesting choice as his only feature was the low-budget indie The Kings of Summer in 2013. The director may not be high-profile, but the cast is. Tom Hiddleston, Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, John Goodman, John C. Reilly, Jing Tian, Toby Kebbell, Corey Hawkins, and Jason Mitchell headline. Even with those recognizable names, the real star is that giant CG creature that first graced the screen almost 85 years ago.

Kong is not expected to match the earnings of the Godzilla reboot three years ago. It had a plum summer release date and made over $90 million out of the gate. Competition from the second weekend of the acclaimed Logan could also hinder this a bit.

I expect this will hover right above or below $50 million and word of mouth will determine how it goes from there.

Kong: Skull Island opening weekend prediction: $48.6 million

Box Office Predictions: March 3-5

The month of March at the box office claws its way into theaters with three new releases premiering. They are: Hugh Jackman’s final appearance as Wolverine in Logan, faith-based drama The Shack, and teen thriller Before I Fall. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/23/logan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/24/the-shack-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/25/before-i-fall-box-office-prediction/

Logan, with some of the greatest reviews of the X-Men franchise, should easily top the charts. It’s worth noting that my mid-60s forecast is a bit lower than some others. We shall see.

I’m expecting sub double digit openings for the other two newcomers, with The Shack landing in fourth and Before I Fall in sixth.

Critically lauded horror pic Get Out had a spectacular opening (more on that below) and I expect a rather small sophomore decline. It should have no trouble placing second. That leaves other holdovers The Lego Batman Movie in third and John Wick: Chapter 2 at fifth.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Logan

Predicted Gross: $68.6 million

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $20 million (representing a drop of 40%)

3. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. The Shack

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. John Wick: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

6. Before I Fall

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (February 24-26)

With its red hot buzz and perfect Rotten Tomatoes score, Jordan Peele’s Get Out got off to a scorching start with a $33.3 million opening – blazing past my meager $16.3M prediction. With a budget of reportedly under $5 million, this is a massively profitable venture for Blumhouse.

The Lego Batman Movie slipped to second to $19.2 million, a bit shy of my $22.1M projection for a three week total of $133M.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was third with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.4M forecast for a $74M overall gross. The Great Wall was fourth in its second weekend with $9.1 million (I said $8.2M) for a lackluster tally of $34M. Fifty Shades Darker rounded out the top five with $7.7 million in weekend #3, under my $9.9M prediction. Its total is at $103M.

Two other newcomers failed to make any impression with moviegoers. The animated Rock Dog was 11th with $3.7 million, in line with my $4.4M prediction. Action thriller Collide was DOA in 13th with $1.5 million, not even my matching my $2.1M estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Before I Fall Box Office Prediction

Looking for the teen dramatic thriller version of Groundhog Day? It appears you can find it next weekend when Before I Fall debuts. Based on a 2010 YA bestseller by Lauren Oliver, the pic centers on a teen (Zoey Deutch) living the final day of her life repeatedly. Costars include Halston Sage, Logan Miller, and Jennifer Beals (yep, the star of Flashdance!).

Fall premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to some positive reviews and it sits at 64%  currently on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, the Open Roads release isn’t expected to rise much with audiences. The marketing campaign has been rather low key and I suspect a mid to possibly high single digits opening is the probable result.

Before I Fall opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million

For my Logan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/23/logan-box-office-prediction/

For my The Shack prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/24/the-shack-box-office-prediction/