Den of Thieves hopes to steal away some box office bucks next Friday. The heist thriller is headlined by Gerard Butler with a supporting cast including 50 Cent, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Pablo Schreiber. Christian Gudegast, who wrote the screenplay for Butler’s sequel London Has Fallen, directs.
Butler’s box office drawing power has been mixed since he broke out in 2007’s 300. Films ending in the words “has fallen” have performed well, as have The Bounty Hunter and Law Abiding Citizen. Others like Gamer and Gods of Egypt have not.
Thieves doesn’t look like a candidate to be a breakout. Action competition is a factor as 12 Strong opens the same day and Proud Mary and The Commuter will be in their sophomore frames.
I’ll predict this struggles to open in double digits and misses the mark.
Den of Thieves opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million
Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million
Warner Bros is hoping to show a force of box office strength when 12 Strong debuts in theaters next Friday. Subtitled The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers, the action drama recounts the true story of the first fighters sent overseas immediately following the 9/11 attacks. Marking the directorial debut of former war photojournalist Nicolai Fuglsig, the cast includes Chris Hemsworth, Michael Shannon, Michael Pena, Trevante Rhodes, William Fichtner, and Rob Riggle.
Over the last few years, January has proven to be fertile ground for similarly themed pics. In 2014, Lone Survivor debuted to a terrific $37 million. Two years ago, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi took in a little over $19 million out of the gate, though it opened over the four-day MLK frame. The pinnacle of the genre (and openings for the month of January overall) was in 2015 when American Sniper astonished prognosticators with $107 million for its four-day MLK weekend premiere.
As you can see, it isn’t rare to see these true life war tales perform quite nicely with moviegoers. Hemsworth brings some star power and he’s just coming off the franchise best performance of his Thor series.
That said, expectations are certainly more in line with Benghazi and not Survivor and definitely not Sniper. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a debut slightly over $20 million, but I’ll estimate Strong takes in high teens for its start.
12 Strong opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
It’s our third four-day weekend in four frames as the MLK holiday is Monday and there’s four new pictures debuting wide. They are: family geared sequel Paddington2, Steven Spielberg Oscar hopeful ThePost, Liam Neeson thriller TheCommuter, and Taraji P. Henson action flick ProudMary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
None are likely to dislodge Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle from its perch atop the charts. The MLK weekend typically sees minor drops from the previous one. As to which newbie garners the most cash… well, that’s an excellent question. I’m giving Paddington the slightest edge over ThePost for the two spot. I also anticipate a healthy debut for ProudMary over TheCommuter, which could open outside the top 5 depending on the StarWars hold.
As for the current #2, Insidious: TheLastKey, it could fall to 7th after an impressive premiere (more on that below). Horror pics historically suffer more precipitous drops than other genres. Lots to consider on this unpredictable weekend and here are my top ten estimates for Friday through Monday:
1. Jumanji: WelcometotheJungle
Predicted Gross: $32.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)
2. Paddington2
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
3. ThePost
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. ProudMary
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
5. StarWars: TheLastJedi
Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)
6. TheCommuter
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
7. Insidious: TheLastKey
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)
8. TheGreatestShowman
Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 8%)
9. PitchPerfect3
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 28%)
10. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 15%)
BoxOfficeResults (January5–7)
As expected, Jumanji vaulted over StarWars in its third weekend to #1 with $37.2 million, easily outpacing my $29.1 million forecast for $245 million overall. The 90s reboot is performing fantastically and should continue its reign this weekend.
The other story of the weekend was the terrific performance of Insidious: TheLastKey, exceeding all expectations at $29.5 million in second compared to my meager $18.6 million estimate. It’s yet another success story for Blumhouse after a sizzling 2017.
TheLastKey dropped TheLastJedi to third with $23.7 million, in line with my $24.8 million projection. Episode VIII has taken in $572 million.
TheGreatestShowman continued its nice run in fourth with $13.7 million (I was lower at $10.6 million) for $76 million total.
Finally, PitchPerfect3 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million (I said $8 million) to bring its coffers to $86 million.
A trio of multiple Oscar winners team up for The Post, which expands nationwide next weekend over the four-day MLK holiday frame. The dramatic political thriller from Steven Spielberg is headlined by Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kay Graham and Tom Hanks as editor Ben Bradlee and their exposure of the Nixon Adminstration’s Pentagon Papers scandal. Costars include Bob Odenkirk, Sarah Paulson, Tracy Letts, Bradley Whitford, Bruce Greenwood, and Carrie Coon.
Unsurprisingly, the film has garnered some Oscar attention for itself and looks to be a player in numerous races when nominations are announced on January 23rd. The Post has received lots of ink for its comparisons to the political scene today. Reviews have been mostly strong and it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
Boasting its A list director and two stars, this should accomplish its mission of appealing to adult moviegoers. It’s performed extremely well in limited release thus far. I’ll predict this posting a low to mid 20s debut.
The Post opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
During last year’s Martin Luther King holiday weekend, Taraji P. Henson had the #1 film with her Oscar nominated HiddenFigures. In 2018, she’s back in the action thriller ProudMary. The pic finds her cast as a Boston hitwoman from director Babak Najafi, best known for making poorly received sequel LondonHasFallen. Supporting players include Billy Brown, Danny Glover, Neal McDonough, and Margaret Avery.
While she’s best known for “Empire” television work, Henson’s big screen track record has been rather impressive with her roles in Figures, TheKarateKid remake, and NoGoodDeed.
ProudMary could have the advantage of attracting some genre fans, as well as African Americans and females (a demographic often underserved with action flicks). I believe this could post a high teens debut, which would put it above direct genre competition TheCommuter.
ProudMary opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
It’s been nine years since Liam Neeson reinvented himself as everyone’s go to elder action star with Taken. The last couple of years have seen him focusing on other genres, but he’s back in kick ass mode next weekend with TheCommuter. This marks his fourth collaboration with director Jaume Collet-Serra after Unknown, Non–Stop, and RunAllNight. Costars include Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga (presumably doing no conjuring work), as well as Sam Neill, Jonathan Banks, and Elizabeth McGovern.
Mr. Neeson’s first two pictures with this director came while he was still packing in audiences with the Taken franchise. That helped propel Unknown and Non–Stop to openings above $20 million. RunAllNight (and another more recent Neeson action flick AWalkAmongtheTombstones) both failed to reach the teens in their debuts.
TheCommuter has received decent reviews so far and sits at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, recent evidence has shown the star’s box office potency in the genre has waned. I’ll predict this reaches low to possibly higher teens for its four-day MLK weekend debut.
TheCommuter opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.
The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.
Paddington2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The first full weekend of 2018 begins with one major new release – Insidious: The Last Key, the fourth entry in the Blumhouse horror franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As I see it, the newbie looks poised for a third place showing. The top two should be held by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. However, unlike the last two weekends, I don’t see it in that order.
Jumanji came within a half million dollars of unseating Jedi for the four-day New Year’s weekend. I’ll predict it has a smaller percentage drop and rises to the top spot in weekend #3.
I also see The Greatest Showman vaulting above Pitch Perfect 3 to stay in the #4 position.
Here’s my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $29.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
3. Insidious: The Last Key
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
5. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 52%)
Box Office Results (December 29-January 1)
The year ended with a box office photo finish between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, adding some excitement as Luke Skywalker and company nearly were knocked off their #1 perch.
Jedi managed to take the top spot with $66.8 million (below my four-day estimate of $77.8 million) to bring its total to $531 million. While this is well below what Force Awakens earned, Jedi did become 2017’s highest grossing film over Disney’s Beauty and the Beast.
Jumanji was right behind with $66.3 million (topping my $58 million forecast) for a total of $185 million thus far. As mentioned above, look for this to vault to #1 this weekend.
Pitch Perfect 3 was third with $21.6 million compared to my $25.1 million prediction in its second weekend for a $68 million overall gross.
The Greatest Showman was close behind in fourth with $20.9 million, displaying great legs and easily eclipsing my $14.9 million projection. It’s at $54 million overall.
Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $14.8 million (I said $12.5 million) for $57 million total.
Coco was sixth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) for a $182 million tally.
All the Money in the World took the seven spot with a solid $7.2 million compared to my $5.2 million prediction for $14 million thus far.
Darkest Hour was eighth with $7 million (I said $7.3 million) and $19 million total.
Downsizing was ninth at $6.2 million (I said $6.1 million) for $16 million overall while The Shape of Water was 11th at $4.7 million (I said $5.7 million) and it’s also made $16 million.
I incorrectly had Father Figures outside the top ten, but it was 10th with $4.9 million and $14 million overall.
The first new wide release of 2018 is out next Friday when Insidious: The Last Key enters theaters. This is the fourth chapter in the franchise that began in 2011. Like Chapter 3, it’s a prequel to the events of the first two. In other words, no Patrick Wilson or Rose Byrne (the stars of the originals). James Wan, director and 1 and 2, produces with Adam Robitel behind the camera. Leigh Whannell, who’s served as writer for all of them, costars along with Lin Shaye, Angus Sampson, Josh Stewart, and Bruce Davison.
One factor that could assist The Last Key is the absence of horror flicks in the marketplace at the moment. That said, this franchise has been losing its luster. The 2011 original debuted to $13 million but legged out very nicely for its genre with an eventual $54 million gross. The 2013 sequel was the pinnacle with a terrific $40 million opening weekend and $83 million total tally. Chapter 3 in 2015 premiered to $22 million, but ended up as the lowest earner of the series with $52 million.
I don’t see a compelling reason why part 4 will rebound. For comparison sake, I could see this performing similarly to 2014’s Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which opened in the first weekend of January to just over $18 million. Like this, that was an entry in a franchise whose steam had dissipated. That number seems to be where Key fits best.
Insidious: The Last Key opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
Well folks – here we are as 2017 closes out with another four-day holiday weekend and it’s enough to make a great mathematician’s head spin.
Blogger’s note: I am not a great mathematician. Nevertheless, I will plow forward with estimates as there’s no new releases. Yet there are a multitude of holiday holdovers looking to match or even surpass what they accomplished this past Christmas weekend.
You have to travel all the way to 2006 for the last time Christmas and New Year’s Day fell on a Monday. When that occurred 11 years ago, the bulk of pictures significantly exceeded the three-day grosses from the December 22-24 frame. Most even experienced an uptick from the Yuletide four-day frame. We should see that happen again as moviegoers have lots of free time during this end of year period, they’re using those gift certificates, and the kiddos are off school.
Here’s how I have the top 10 looking to close out another year on the box office charts:
**Please note that the increases noted would be from the three-day Christmas grosses (22-24) to the four-day New Year’s weekend predictions…
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predicted Gross: $77.8 million (representing an increase of 9%)
2. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $58 million (representing an increase of 59%)
3. Pitch Perfect 3
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million (representing an increase of 26%)
4. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing an increase of 69%)
5. Ferdinand
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing an increase of 71%)
6. Coco
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing an increase of 82%)
7. Darkest Hour
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing an increase of 88%)
8. Downsizing
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing an increase of 23%)
9. The Shape of Water
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing an increase of 90%)
10. All the Money in the World
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (December 22-25)
It was indeed a bustling Christmas weekend as some newbies rose above expectations while others fell considerably short. There were also impressive expansions of awards contenders.
Yet as anticipated, Star Wars: The Last Jedi easily took the top spot in weekend #2. However, it did so with numbers far short of my estimate. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise took in $99 million (well short of my $129 million estimate) for an overall tally of $395 million.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle gave Sony reason to celebrate with an estimated (final number still not in on Wednesday at noon for some reason) $55.4 million over the four-day. This tops my $40.5 million prediction. Since its Wednesday debut, Jungle has amassed $72 million (above my $55.1 million take). It would appear this franchise will continue on.
Pitch Perfect 3 opened in third to a decent $26.4 million. Still, that’s under my $33.6 million forecast and well under what its predecessor achieved two years ago.
Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman posted fourth with $14.4 million for the four-day and $19 million since its Wednesday start. These are a touch under my respective estimates of $16.1 million and $22.4 million. That’s a tad underwhelming, but I see it holding up well this weekend.
Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $11.2 million) for a $29 million overall tally.
Coco was sixth with $8.1 million (I said $8.8 million) as the Pixar flick has grossed $164 million total.
Debuting in seventh and quite disappointingly was Matt Damon’s Downsizing at just $7.6 million compared to my $11.7 million prediction. With mixed critical reaction and poor word-of-mouth, look for this to diminish fast.
Darkest Hour, which boasts Best Actor Oscar front-runner Gary Oldman as Winston Churchill, was 8th as it expanded its theater count. It grossed $5.5 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top 10.
Besides Downsizing, the other new flop of the weekend was Owen Wilson/Ed Helms comedy Father Figures. The poorly reviewed pic opened ninth at just $5.4 million (under my $8.6 million estimate).
The Shape of Water (another Oscar contender) took 10th as it opened wider with $4.4 million. Again, I missed the mark and had this outside the top 10.
And that does it for now, ladies and gents! It’s been quite a treat bringing you my box office predictions for 2017 and it will continue into 2018! Until then…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 