Tag: box office predictions

Box Office Predictions: January 19-21

Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million

Two new titles vie for action fan attention this weekend as military themed 12 Strong and heist themed Den of Thieves debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

12 Strong Box Office Prediction

Den of Thieves Box Office Prediction

12 Strong could potentially make a play for the top spot, but I suspect Jumanji will continue its dominance in first place. Looking over the post MLK weekend from years past, it’s not rare for holdovers to experience smallish declines. I suspect that will hold true for Jumanji and The Post.

Along those lines, The Greatest Showman should drop to fourth with The Commuter rounding out the top 5. My $6.1 million estimate for Den of Thieves puts it outside my high five.

And with that – here they are!

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. The Post

Predicted Gross: $14 million

3. 12 Strong

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million

5. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (January 12–15)

Jumanji continued its remarkable run atop the charts over the four day MLK weekend with $35.1 million, edging past my prediction of $32.7 million. The smash sequel has amassed $291 million since its Christmas time debut.

There were plenty of new releases and expansions this weekend and Steven Spielberg’s Oscar hopeful The Post fared best in second with $23 million, in line with my $22.3 million estimate.

The Greatest Showman continued its stellar run with $16.1 million, singing beyond my $12.6 million prediction. It’s ready to join the century club as it stands at $98 million.

Liam Neeson took fourth with The Commuter as it opened with a fairly solid $15.8 million (I was a touch lower at $14.6 million).

One of the surprises of the weekend was the disappointing performance for critically acclaimed kiddie sequel Paddington 2, debuting in fifth with a mediocre $15 million. I had it pegged for a #2 premiere at $22.4 million. Oops.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi was sixth with $14.6 million (I said $15.5 million) for $594 million total.

Insidious: The Last Key fell from second to seventh with $14.3 million compared to my $13.2 million estimate. It’s earned $50 million in its two weeks of release.

In eighth place, Proud Mary with Taraji P. Henson had a muted start with $11.7 million, well under my $18.5 million projection.

Pitch Perfect 3 was ninth with $7.3 million. My prediction? $7.3 million. Woot woot. The three-quel is also on the cusp of nine figures with $96 million.

I incorrectly had Darkest Hour outside the top 10, but it placed 10th with $5.4 million and $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Den of Thieves Box Office Prediction

Den of Thieves hopes to steal away some box office bucks next Friday. The heist thriller is headlined by Gerard Butler with a supporting cast including 50 Cent, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Pablo Schreiber. Christian Gudegast, who wrote the screenplay for Butler’s sequel London Has Fallen, directs.

Butler’s box office drawing power has been mixed since he broke out in 2007’s 300. Films ending in the words “has fallen” have performed well, as have The Bounty Hunter and Law Abiding Citizen. Others like Gamer and Gods of Egypt have not.

Thieves doesn’t look like a candidate to be a breakout. Action competition is a factor as 12 Strong opens the same day and Proud Mary and The Commuter will be in their sophomore frames.

I’ll predict this struggles to open in double digits and misses the mark.

Den of Thieves opening weekend prediction: $6.1 million

For my 12 Strong prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/10/12-strong-box-office-prediction/

12 Strong Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (01/18/18): I am revising my 12 Strong prediction from $17.9 million down to $13.9 million

Warner Bros is hoping to show a force of box office strength when 12 Strong debuts in theaters next Friday. Subtitled The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers, the action drama recounts the true story of the first fighters sent overseas immediately following the 9/11 attacks. Marking the directorial debut of former war photojournalist Nicolai Fuglsig, the cast includes Chris Hemsworth, Michael Shannon, Michael Pena, Trevante Rhodes, William Fichtner, and Rob Riggle.

Over the last few years, January has proven to be fertile ground for similarly themed pics. In 2014, Lone Survivor debuted to a terrific $37 million. Two years ago, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi took in a little over $19 million out of the gate, though it opened over the four-day MLK frame. The pinnacle of the genre (and openings for the month of January overall) was in 2015 when American Sniper astonished prognosticators with $107 million for its four-day MLK weekend premiere.

As you can see, it isn’t rare to see these true life war tales perform quite nicely with moviegoers. Hemsworth brings some star power and he’s just coming off the franchise best performance of his Thor series.

That said, expectations are certainly more in line with Benghazi and not Survivor and definitely not Sniper. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a debut slightly over $20 million, but I’ll estimate Strong takes in high teens for its start.

12 Strong opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million

For my Den of Thieves prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/10/den-of-thieves-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 12-15

It’s our third four-day weekend in four frames as the MLK holiday is Monday and there’s four new pictures debuting wide. They are: family geared sequel Paddington 2, Steven Spielberg Oscar hopeful The Post, Liam Neeson thriller The Commuter, and Taraji  P. Henson action flick Proud Mary. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

None are likely to dislodge Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle from its perch atop the charts. The MLK weekend typically sees minor drops from the previous one. As to which newbie garners the most cash… well, that’s an excellent question. I’m giving Paddington the slightest edge over The Post for the two spot. I also anticipate a healthy debut for Proud Mary over The Commuter, which could open outside the top 5 depending on the Star Wars hold.

As for the current #2, Insidious: The Last Key, it could fall to 7th after an impressive premiere (more on that below). Horror pics historically suffer more precipitous drops than other genres. Lots to consider on this unpredictable weekend and here are my top ten estimates for Friday through Monday:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $32.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

2. Paddington 2

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. The Post

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million

4. Proud Mary

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)

6. The Commuter

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

7. Insidious: The Last Key

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

8. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 8%)

9. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 28%)

10. Ferdinand

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 15%)

Box Office Results (January 5–7)

As expected, Jumanji vaulted over Star Wars in its third weekend to #1 with $37.2 million, easily outpacing my $29.1 million forecast for $245 million overall. The 90s reboot is performing fantastically and should continue its reign this weekend.

The other story of the weekend was the terrific performance of Insidious: The Last Key,  exceeding all expectations at $29.5 million in second compared to my meager $18.6 million estimate. It’s yet another success story for Blumhouse after a sizzling 2017.

The Last Key dropped The Last Jedi to third with $23.7 million, in line with my $24.8 million projection. Episode VIII has taken in $572 million.

The Greatest Showman continued its nice run in fourth with $13.7 million (I was lower at $10.6 million) for $76 million total.

Finally, Pitch Perfect 3 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million (I said $8 million) to bring its coffers to $86 million.

And that does it for now folks! Until next time…

The Post Box Office Prediction

A trio of multiple Oscar winners team up for The Post, which expands nationwide next weekend over the four-day MLK holiday frame. The dramatic political thriller from Steven Spielberg is headlined by Meryl Streep as Washington Post publisher Kay Graham and Tom Hanks as editor Ben Bradlee and their exposure of the Nixon Adminstration’s Pentagon Papers scandal. Costars include Bob Odenkirk, Sarah Paulson, Tracy Letts, Bradley Whitford, Bruce Greenwood, and Carrie Coon.

Unsurprisingly, the film has garnered some Oscar attention for itself and looks to be a player in numerous races when nominations are announced on January 23rd. The Post has received lots of ink for its comparisons to the political scene today. Reviews have been mostly strong and it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

Boasting its A list director and two stars, this should accomplish its mission of appealing to adult moviegoers. It’s performed extremely well in limited release thus far. I’ll predict this posting a low to mid 20s debut.

The Post opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my Paddington 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

For my The Commuter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

For my Proud Mary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

Proud Mary Box Office Prediction

During last year’s Martin Luther King holiday weekend, Taraji P. Henson had the #1 film with her Oscar nominated Hidden Figures. In 2018, she’s back in the action thriller Proud Mary. The pic finds her cast as a Boston hitwoman from director Babak Najafi, best known for making poorly received sequel London Has Fallen. Supporting players include Billy Brown, Danny Glover, Neal McDonough, and Margaret Avery.

While she’s best known for “Empire” television work, Henson’s big screen track record has been rather impressive with her roles in Figures, The Karate Kid remake, and No Good Deed.

Proud Mary could have the advantage of attracting some genre fans, as well as African Americans and females (a demographic often underserved with action flicks). I believe this could post a high teens debut, which would put it above direct genre competition The Commuter.

Proud Mary opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Commuter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

For my The Post prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

 

The Commuter Box Office Prediction

It’s been nine years since Liam Neeson reinvented himself as everyone’s go to elder action star with Taken. The last couple of years have seen him focusing on other genres,  but he’s back in kick ass mode next weekend with The Commuter. This marks his fourth collaboration with director Jaume Collet-Serra after Unknown, Non–Stop, and Run All Night. Costars include Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga (presumably doing no conjuring work), as well as Sam Neill, Jonathan Banks, and Elizabeth McGovern.

Mr. Neeson’s first two pictures with this director came while he was still packing in audiences with the Taken franchise. That helped propel Unknown and Non–Stop to openings above $20 million. Run All Night (and another more recent Neeson action flick A Walk Among the Tombstones) both failed to reach the teens in their debuts.

The Commuter has received decent reviews so far and sits at 67% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, recent evidence has shown the star’s box office potency in the genre has waned. I’ll predict this reaches low to possibly higher teens for its four-day MLK weekend debut.

The Commuter opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Post prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

For my Paddington 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/paddington-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Proud Mary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

 

Paddington 2 Box Office Prediction

Apologies in advance for the pun, but Warner Bros is hoping for a “beary” pleasing result when Paddington 2 debuts next weekend. It arrives three years after the original posted stellar results stateside during the MLK four-day frame. The family pic brings back Ben Whishaw as the voice of the title bear made famous by a series of childrens stories. Paul King returns in the director’s chair, as do cast returnees Hugh Bonneville, Sally Hawkins, Jim Broadbent, Julie Walters, and Peter Capaldi. New but familiar faces to the series include Hugh Grant and Brendan Gleeson.

The sequel received a bit of unexpected publicity this fall as it was originally to be distributed by the Weinstein Company. When controversy swirled around Harvey Weinstein, Warner swooped in and picked up distribution rights. The well-reviewed predecessor premiered in January 2015 to a $25 million long weekend opening with a $76 million eventual haul. Part 2 has already taken in nearly $100 million overseas and has critics on its side, with a 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

There is still competition out there for family audiences as Jumanji should still be posting solid grosses. The sequel may not quite match the earnings of the first, but I’ll predict it manages to top $20 million out of the gate.

Paddington 2 opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Post prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/04/the-post-box-office-prediction/

For my The Commuter prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/the-commuter-box-office-prediction/

For my Proud Mary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/01/03/proud-mary-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: January 5-7

The first full weekend of 2018 begins with one major new release – Insidious: The Last Key, the fourth entry in the Blumhouse horror franchise. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/28/insidious-the-last-key-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, the newbie looks poised for a third place showing. The top two should be held by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle. However, unlike the last two weekends, I don’t see it in that order.

Jumanji came within a half million dollars of unseating Jedi for the four-day New Year’s weekend. I’ll predict it has a smaller percentage drop and rises to the top spot in weekend #3.

I also see The Greatest Showman vaulting above Pitch Perfect 3 to stay in the #4 position.

Here’s my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Insidious: The Last Key

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

4. The Greatest Showman

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Pitch Perfect 3

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (December 29-January 1)

The year ended with a box office photo finish between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, adding some excitement as Luke Skywalker and company nearly were knocked off their #1 perch.

Jedi managed to take the top spot with $66.8 million (below my four-day estimate of $77.8 million) to bring its total to $531 million. While this is well below what Force Awakens earned, Jedi did become 2017’s highest grossing film over Disney’s Beauty and the Beast.

Jumanji was right behind with $66.3 million (topping my $58 million forecast) for a total of $185 million thus far. As mentioned above, look for this to vault to #1 this weekend.

Pitch Perfect 3 was third with $21.6 million compared to my $25.1 million prediction in its second weekend for a $68 million overall gross.

The Greatest Showman was close behind in fourth with $20.9 million, displaying great legs and easily eclipsing my $14.9 million projection. It’s at $54 million overall.

Ferdinand rounded out the top five with $14.8 million (I said $12.5 million) for $57 million total.

Coco was sixth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) for a $182 million tally.

All the Money in the World took the seven spot with a solid $7.2 million compared to my $5.2 million prediction for $14 million thus far.

Darkest Hour was eighth with $7 million (I said $7.3 million) and $19 million total.

Downsizing was ninth at $6.2 million (I said $6.1 million) for $16 million overall while The Shape of Water was 11th at $4.7 million (I said $5.7 million) and it’s also made $16 million.

I incorrectly had Father Figures outside the top ten, but it was 10th with $4.9 million and $14 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Insidious: The Last Key Box Office Prediction

The first new wide release of 2018 is out next Friday when Insidious: The Last Key enters theaters. This is the fourth chapter in the franchise that began in 2011. Like Chapter 3, it’s a prequel to the events of the first two. In other words, no Patrick Wilson or Rose Byrne (the stars of the originals). James Wan, director and 1 and 2, produces with Adam Robitel behind the camera. Leigh Whannell, who’s served as writer for all of them, costars along with Lin Shaye, Angus Sampson, Josh Stewart, and Bruce Davison.

One factor that could assist The Last Key is the absence of horror flicks in the marketplace at the moment. That said, this franchise has been losing its luster. The 2011 original debuted to $13 million but legged out very nicely for its genre with an eventual $54 million gross. The 2013 sequel was the pinnacle with a terrific $40 million opening weekend and $83 million total tally. Chapter 3 in 2015 premiered to $22 million, but ended up as the lowest earner of the series with $52 million. 

I don’t see a compelling reason why part 4 will rebound. For comparison sake, I could see this performing similarly to 2014’s Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, which opened in the first weekend of January to just over $18 million. Like this, that was an entry in a franchise whose steam had dissipated. That number seems to be where Key fits best.

Insidious: The Last Key opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million