Based on a 2006 Japanese flick, romantic drama Midnight Sun hopes to light up cinemas next weekend. It could face an uphill battle. From director Scott Speer, Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger (scion of Ahnuld) headline with the former playing a teen girl with a rare condition that makes her averse to sunlight. Mr. Schwarzenegger is her longtime crush. Rob Riggle and Quinn Shephard costar.
Since it’s not based on some YA novel with a lot of fans, I’m having a tough time picturing Sun breaking through with its intended young and female audience. The Open Road Films production is rolling out on approximately 2000 screens and I’ll say it doesn’t even manage to hit $5 million out of the gate.
Midnight Sun opening weekend prediction: $4 million
For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (03/19): The reported 1400 theater count has caused me to downsize my Apostle prediction from $10.3 million to just $5.5 million.
Rising in theaters a week before the Easter holiday frame is Paul, ApostleofChrist. The Biblical drama casts Jim Faulkner as Saint Paul and Jim Caviezel as Saint Luke. The supporting cast includes Olivier Martinez and Joanne Whalley. Andrew Wyatt directs.
Faith based pictures are often tricky to project, but its pre Easter release date should only help. It also doesn’t hurt that Caviezel starred in the highest grossing (by far) genre entry, 2004’s ThePassionoftheChrist.
There is some competition for the same audience as the more contemporary Christian themed ICanOnlyImagine will be in its sophomore weekend. A decent comp for Apostle could be 2016’s Risen, which earned $11.8 million for its beginning. I’ll put it a bit under that.
Paul, ApostleofChrist opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
Seven years after its predecessor posted solid box office numbers, animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes debuts in theaters next weekend. Produced by Paramount Animation and MGM, the 3D computer drawn comedy is the follow-up to 2011’s Gnomeo and Juliet. Returning voices include James McAvoy (Gnomeo), Emily Blunt (Juliet), Michael Caine, and Maggie Smith. Known faces bringing fresh voices to the follow-up include Chiwetel Ejiofor, Mary J. Blige, and Johnny Depp. Elton John contributes some music.
In February 2011, Gnomeo debuted to $25 million and ended up with $99.9 million overall. Fun fact: that makes it the highest grossing domestic earner of all time to not join the century club. One problem with Gnomes matching the first: a lot of the kiddos who went to see Gnomeo are now preteens or teenagers. Unlike Pixar sequels, there may not be enough goodwill for this to warrant them returning or bringing in a fresh batch of youngsters.
That said, competition for family audiences is rather light. I’ll predict Sherlock ends up in the low to mid teens for its start.
Sherlock Gnomes opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:
The giant monster mash franchise that began nearly five years ago is back on screen next weekend with the release of Pacific Rim Uprising. There’s some new faces behind and in front of the camera this time around. The original Pacific Rim debuted in the summer of 2013 to decent stateside box office numbers, earning $37 million in its opening weekend and $101 million overall. It reached over $400 million worldwide.
Part 1 came from recently minted Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, who just shares a producer credit here. Steven S. DeKnight makes his directorial debut in a cast led by John Boyega. Costars include Scott Eastwood, Cailee Spaeny, Jing Tian, and Adria Arjona. Returning cast members from the first include Charlie Day, Rinko Kikuchim, and Burn Gorman. Idris Elba and Charlie Hunnam are not back.
Uprising arrives with a slightly smaller budget than part 1 – $150 million vs. $190 million. Expectations for the sequel are also smaller – at least in North America. Universal Pictures is likely looking to make the bulk of its cash overseas, particularly in the Asian markets. While Rim seems poised to debut at #1, I’m estimating a mid 20s gross and predicting it won’t reach the century club like its predecessor.
Pacific Rim Uprising opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
Over the weekend, even Disney couldn’t knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office for the fourth frame in a row. Might the King’s reign end this weekend with the release of Tomb Raider? We also have teen romantic drama Love, Simon and faith-based true life drama I Can Only Imagine debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
And that’s not quite all. There’s also the action thriller 7 Days in Entebbe with Daniel Bruhl and Rosamund Pike. It’s slated to come out on a low 800 screens and reviews have not been kind. I think it will be lucky to clear $1 million in its opening and I didn’t bother to do an individual estimate for it.
My estimate for Tomb Raider does give it the #1 slot, albeit not by much. I believe Panther is probably good for another $25M+ weekend and that puts it within striking distance.
Love, Simon is a big question mark in my view. It has sleeper potential due to its subject matter and glowing reviews. It could easily surprise and post a third place debut, but I’ve got it a bit lower in fourth after the second weekend of A Wrinkle in Time. That film, which underwhelmed out of the gate, could lose about half its opening weekend audience.
As for the five spot, I predict Game Night will stay there (vaulting over The Strangers: Prey at Night and Red Sparrow). My $5.4 million projection for I Can Only Imagine leaves it just outside the top 5 (yet even it has the potential to surpass my meager estimate).
And with that, here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. Tomb Raider
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
2. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million
3. A Wrinkle in Time
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
4. Love, Simon
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
5. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (March 9-11)
Black Panther held off its most serious competition to date – topping the charts and becoming the highest grossing comic book flick not named The Avengers. Holding the #1 spot for the fourth weekend in a row, Panther made $40.8 million (on target with my $40.2 estimate) for $561 million total. It now appears inevitable that it will surpass the $623 million made by Avengers to become the all-time superhero champ.
A Wrinkle in Time had to settle for the runner-up spot with $33.1 million as it came in on the lower end of estimates (middling reviews probably didn’t help). The heavily promoted fantasy debuted under my forecast of $37.8 million. Depending on its holds over the next few weeks, it could struggle to reach the century club.
As far as newcomers go, the success story of the weekend is long gestating horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, which earned $10.4 million for third and topped my $7.9 million projection. In one weekend, it made double its teeny $5 million budget.
Red Sparrow was fourth in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million (I said $8.1 million) to bring its rather disappointing tally to $31 million.
Peter Rabbit ended up sixth with $6.7 million (I said $7.5 million) for $93 million as it hops towards the $100 million club.
I incorrectly had Game Night outside the top five, but it placed fifth with $7.8 million for $45 million overall.
The Hurricane Heist bombed with moviegoers and earned just $3 million in its ninth place opening, under my $5.6 million prediction. Gringo was another newcomer gaining zero traction with audiences as it made $2.7 million for 11th place (I said $3.1 million).
Blogger’s Note (03/14/18): I am revisiting my estimate considerably upwards to $5.4 million
Playing in theaters next weekend is the faith based drama ICanOnlyImagine, which tells the story behind the making of the most popular Christian contemporary song of all time. The song shares the title of the film from the band MercyMe with J. Michael Finley as lead singer Bart Millard. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Cloris Leachman, and Trace Adkins. The directors are Andrew and Jon Erwin, makers of Woodlawn and Moms’ NightOut.
I’ve yet to see a theater count for Imagine, but I would guess it’ll be relatively low at about 1,000. This genre has shown the ability to over perform estimates. That said, this one seems to be generating rather meager buzz. The Erwin brothers have seen their previous two outings make about $4 million for their starts. I’ll predict Imagine doesn’t quite reach that number.
ICanOnlyImagine opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
Love, Simon hopes to enchant moviegoers when the romantic dramedy debuts next weekend. The film, based on a 2015 YA novel by Becky Albertalli, focuses on a closeted gay teen (Nick Robinson) growing up in the South. Jennifer Garner and Josh Duhamel play his parents with Greg Berlanti (known mostly for his TV work) directing.
From the producers of The Fault in Our Stars, the pic has garnered positive critical response as it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Simon has received some publicity for its subject matter and the mostly strong reviews should help.
On the high end, I could see the 20th Century Fox production nabbing about $17 million. However, I believe a lower double digits roll out is more likely as it will hope for word-of-mouth to sustain it in subsequent weekends.
Love, Simon opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
Warner Bros hopes to kick off a new franchise nearly two decades after the first one when TombRaider debuts next weekend. Based on the iconic video game, it finds Alicia Vikander in the role of Lara Croft that was first portrayed by Angelina Jolie. Directed by the awesomely named Roar Uthaug, the adventure costars Dominic West, Walton Goggins, Daniel Wu, Nick Frost, and Kristin Scott Thomas.
In the summer of 2001, original adaptation LaraCroft: TombRaider premiered to $47 million with an eventual $131 million overall gross. The 2003 sequel TheCradleofLife experienced a significant dip with a $21 million opening and $65 million total. That was a long time ago and it will be interesting to see if old and new fans of the many video games will turn out.
There is potential for a bigger than anticipated roll out. In fact, the nearly $50 million generated by the first Raider certainly exceeded projections. Yet I believe this is more likely to earn a touch higher than the sequel 15 years ago.
TombRaider opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my Wrinkle prediction from $42.8 million to $37.8 million and now have it in second place
A quartet of new movies enter the marketplace this weekend as Disney’s A Wrinkle in Time, horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, disaster action pic The Hurricane Heist, and action comedy Gringo debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
A month ago, I would have told you that A Wrinkle in Time would easily debut at #1. However, then Black Panther happened (another Disney property). While I’m giving Time the #1 slot, if it under performs, it’s not out of the question that Panther could spend a fourth week atop the charts. I actually have the two of them quite close.
The other newbies likely face a tough road ahead. I have The Strangers sequel tops among that trio. My meager $3.1 million estimate for Gringo puts it well outside the top 5 while my $5.6 million projection for Hurricane also leaves it on the outside looking in. I’ll say Hurricane misses the top 5 due to holdover powers of others. The 3-5 slots and a bit beyond could have quite a logjam with Red Sparrow, Game Night, and Peter Rabbit all posting similar grosses. Sparrow should manage to be #3 (barely by my count). I’ll say current #3 Death Wish doesn’t hold up as well as Night or Rabbit and falls from the top 5 altogether.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. BlackPanther
Predicted Gross: $40.2 million
2. A Wrinkle in Time
Predicted Gross: $37.8 million
3. Red Sparrow
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. The Strangers: Prey at Night
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (March 2-4)
Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued its incredible performance in its third weekend, easily placing first with $66.3 million (in range with my $65.4 million forecast) for a total of $501 million overall. That puts Panther currently in 10th place on the all-time domestic earners list and it’s likely to climb to seventh this weekend. Its gross is good for the #3 all-time third weekend, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar.
Red Sparrow took the runner-up spot with a middling $16.8 million (just under my $17.5 million estimate). The Jennifer Lawrence spy thriller was hit with mixed reviews and marks the second box office disappointment in a row for the lead actress after mother!.
The Death Wish remake with Bruce Willis opened in third to a rather disappointing $13 million, under my $16.6 million projection. Poor reviews and potential bad timing for its release could have hurt it. It should fade rather quickly.
Game Night was fourth in its sophomore frame, holding up well with $10.4 million (I said $9.8 million) for $33 million total.
Peter Rabbit rounded out the top five with $10 million (ahead of my prediction of $8.7 million) for $84 million overall. The family tale looks to join the century club at some point.
Gringo is action comedy laced with marijuana humor and it hits theaters next weekend. The film marks the directorial debut of Nash Edgerton (previously known for being a stunt coordinator). The cast includes David Oyelowo, Charlize Theron, Nash’s brother Joel Edgerton, Thandie Newton, Amanda Seyfried, Sharlto Copley, and the King of Pop’s daughter Paris Jackson.
Distributed by Amazon Studios and STX Entertainment, I’m having trouble envisioning much of an audience for it. The cast probably isn’t enough to get moviegoers too interested (save for maybe Theron) and the trailers and TV spots might not do enough to keep this from being a home viewing experience.
Gringo is rolling out on approximately 2400 screens (higher than I would have anticipated), but I’ll predict it struggles mightily to break through to American audiences.
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