Global Road Entertainment is hoping family audiences turn out for next weekend’s Show Dogs. The live-action comedy exists in a world where humans and canines communicate verbally. That means the voice-over cast includes Ludacris, Jordin Sparks, RuPaul, Gabriel Iglesias, Shaquille O’Neal, Stanley Tucci, and Alan Cumming alongside real cast members Will Arnett and Natasha Lyonne. The pic is directed by Raja Gosnell, who has experience with pup flicks including Scooby-Doo and Beverly Hills Chihuahua (as well as the first two Smurfs entries).
Show Dogs doesn’t exactly seem to be generating much heat, but there isn’t much out there for kids who won’t be allowed to see Deadpool 2 (which opens against it). Family pics can always outdo projections, but I’ll say this falls a under double digits for its premiere. That would put it far from best in show and towards the bottom end of the top 5 for its weekend.
Show Dogs opening weekend prediction: $7.9 million
Paramount is hoping to bring in an older female audience next Friday with the release of BookClub. The comedy casts the quartet of Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, and Mary Steenburgen as members of a reading group who become influenced by their latest selection, FiftyShadesofGrey. The pic marks the directorial debut of Bill Holderman and costars include Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, Richard Dreyfuss, Craig T. Nelson, and Alicia Silverstone.
As mentioned, this Club hopes to capitalize on an often underserved market. Yet there is at least one other title appealing to females as LifeoftheParty will be in its sophomore frame and possibly still in lower double digits.
I’ll estimate this manages high single digits to low double digits itself out of the gate as it’ll likely hope for smallish declines in subsequent frames.
BookClub opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
The nation’s favorite R rated superhero is back in theaters next weekend when Deadpool 2 debuts. Arriving two years plus after the original became a massive hit, Ryan Reynolds returns in the title role with David Leitch (director of Atomic Blonde) taking over the behind the camera duties from Tim Miller. Costars include Monica Baccarin, Julian Dennison, Zazie Beetz, T.J. Miller, Brianna Hildebrand, Leslie Uggams, and the summer’s comic book villain of choice, Josh Brolin as Cable (coming off his acclaimed work as Thanos in Avengers: Infinity War).
In February of 2016, Deadpool took in an astonishing $132 million and grossed $363 million overall domestically. That still stands as the largest R rated debut of all time and it sits only behind The Passion of the Christ for all-time earners with that rating. There is a legitimate possibility that part two manages to exceed that opening weekend haul.
I’ll project that Deadpool 2 manages to just do that with a debut approaching $140 million.
Deadpool 2 opening weekend prediction: $137.4 million
Two new titles look to place second and third this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War should continue to dominate the charts. They are the Melissa McCarthy back to college comedy Life of the Party and Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that pair here:
My high teens estimate for Party indeed puts it in the runner-up position with Breaking in mid to high teens for third. I’ve got Avengers grossing just under $60 million in its third frame to easily stay #1 with holdovers Overboard and AQuietPlace rounding out the top five.
And with that, my estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Avengers: InfinityWar
Predicted Gross: $59.7 million
2. LifeoftheParty
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
3. BreakingIn
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
4. Overboard
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. AQuietPlace
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
BoxOfficeResults (May4–6)
Avengers: InfinityWar continued its chart domination by scoring the second best second weekend ever at $114.7 million, a bit under my $118.1 million forecast. The Marvel juggernaut has amassed $453 million thus far.
Overboard had a healthy opening in second with $14.7 million, topping my $11.8 million estimate. I look for the comedy to have a rather hefty drop this coming weekend.
AQuietPlace was third at $7.7 million (I said $7.3 million) to bring its tally to $160 million.
IFeelPretty was fourth with $5 million (I was close at $5.2 million) for $37 million overall.
Rampage was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It grossed $4.6 million and has made $84 million total.
Tully with Charlize Theron opened meekly in sixth with $3.2 million. I gave it a bit too much credit and had it at $5 million.
Finally, BadSamaritan bombed in 11th place with just $1.7 million, a tad below my $2.1 million projection.
Blogger’s Note (05/10/18): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $13.6 million to $17.6 million
Gabrielle Union headlines the thriller Breaking In, out next weekend. Will the movie be able to generate any box office heat or will audiences have a cavalier attitude towards it? The actress plays a single mom caught up in a home invasion situation with her kids. James McTeigue, best known for making 2006’s V for Vendetta, is behind the camera. Costars include Ajiona Alexus, Christa Miller, Jason George, Billy Burke, and Richard Cabral.
The Universal release is currently slated to open on approximately 2300 screens. While it seems to be flying a bit under the radar, it could have enough appeal to female and African-American audiences to post a double digits debut. I’ll predict it manages to do that, which should place it third behind the third weekend of Avengers: Infinity War and the premiere of Melissa McCarthy’s Life of the Party.
Breaking In opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million
Melissa McCarthy is back in theaters after a two-year absence when Life of the Party debuts next weekend. The comedy marks her third collaboration with her husband/director Ben Falcone after 2014’s Tammy and 2016’s The Boss. It’s her first appearance onscreen since the Ghostbusters reboot in the summer of 2016. The pic casts her as a divorced mom who goes back to college and ends up in the same class as her daughter. Costars include Molly Gordon, Gillian Jacobs, Maya Rudolph, Jacki Weaver, Julie Bowen, Matt Walsh, and Stephen Root.
The previous efforts of McCarthy with Falcone has yielded results in the low 20s at the box office. Tammy opened to $21 million with an eventual gross of $84 million. Two years later, The Boss premiered with $23 million and $63 million overall. It certainly is possible that Life could start out in the same range, but I could also see this falling just a tad lower.
I’ll project Life of the Party doesn’t quite reach $20 million, which should easily be enough for it to place second to the third weekend of Avengers: Infinity War.
Life of the Party opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million
It’s gonna by May at the box office and there’s a trio of newcomers hitting screens: rom com remake Overboard with Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris, critically acclaimed comedic drama Tully with Charlize Theron, and horror thriller Bad Samaritan. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I have none of the trio of newcomers even breaking $10 million. Overboard should lead the pack and is likely to place second. Tully could get a 4th or 5th place showing, coming in behind A Quiet Place or a bit ahead or slightly behind I Feel Pretty.My $2.1 million estimate for Bad Samaritan leaves it outside the top 5.
This weekend will once again be all about the superheroes as Avengers: Infinity War enters its sophomore frame after its record shattering debut (more on that below). So how will Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, and so many others hold up in weekend #2? 2012’s The Avengers dropped 50% in its sophomore outing with 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron falling 59%. I have this dropping somewhere in between. Let’s put it at 54%. That would be #2 as far as all-time second weekends (vaulting over Black Panther), but not as high as the $149 million achieved by Force Awakens (which had the benefit of its follow-up frame falling over the Christmas holiday).
**If you’d like to read my review of Infinity War (spoiler free), it can be found here:
And with that, here’s my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Avengers: Infinity War
Predicted Gross: $118.1 million
2. Overboard
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. A Quiet Place
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. IFeelPretty
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
5. Tully
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (April 27-29)
Avengers: Infinity War made history at the box office this weekend. Not only did the Marvel gathering of its heroes have the biggest domestic debut of all time – it did so rather easily. War amassed $257.6 million, besting the previous high mark set by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $247.9 million. It blasted past my projection of $240.2 million. Will the fourth Avengers title coming in one year top this one? Time shall tell. One thing is for sure – Marvel/Disney is having an unbelievable year with this and Black Panther.
A Quiet Place took the runner-up spot with $11 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction for $148 million overall.
I Feel Pretty stayed in third place in weekend #2 with $8.1 million (I was close with $7.6 million) for a $29 million tally.
Rampage placed fourth with $7.2 million, below my $9.1 million forecast for a total of $78 million.
I gave Super Troopers 2 too much credit and had it in the top 5 at $5.6 million. It came in lower with $3.7 million for sixth place and has made $22 million thus far.
The aforementioned Black Panther ended up rounding out the top five with $4.7 million to bring its gross to $688 million.
The horror thriller BadSamaritan arrives in theaters next weekend and it seems to be flying pretty far under the radar. Dean Devlin directs his sophomore pic, but he’s been no stranger to audiences for decades. He was the producing partner of Roland Emmerich and was behind the scenes with efforts including Stargate, IndependenceDay, and the unfortunate 1998 version of Godzilla. Just last year, he put out his debut – disaster flick Geostorm. That mega-budgeted effort took in a weak $33 million domestically. Compared to what I expect Samaritan to do, Geostorm might be considered a blockbuster.
David Tennant, Robert Sheehan, Carlito Olivero, and Kerry Condon are among the cast members in the home invasion tale that turns into a fright fest. Genre fans have had their fix as of late with AQuietPlace and TruthorDare.
Samaritan is slated to open on roughly 1800 screens, which is actually higher than Overboard or Tully (the two features opening on the same day). Even with more showings, I’ll project this premieres third of the three new releases in theaters that should be a quiet place of their own.
BadSamaritan opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million
A brave airline pilot executes a miraculous landing on the Hudson River…
Ok, wrong movie as Jason Reitman’s Tully is delivered to theaters next weekend. The comedic drama stars Charlize Theron as a frazzled mom who gets some help from a kindly sitter played by Mackenzie Davis. Ron Livingston costars.
Tully debuted at the Sundance Film Festival to strong critical notices and it sits at 93% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The film reunites Theron with her YoungAdult director and screenwriter Diablo Cody, who also scripted Reitman’s Oscar nominated Juno. It’s a break from the action for Theron after pics including MadMax: FuryRoad, TheFateoftheFurious, and AtomicBlonde.
Scheduled to debut on a rather low 1200 screens, Tully may open to a fairly smallish gross with hopes of legging out well in future weekends.
***Blogger’s Update II (05/03/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am returning back to original estimate at $11.8 million. Been a whirlwind with this one…
**Blogger’s Update (04/26/18): I have soured considerably on my Overboard estimate. I’m revising my prediction from $11.8 million to just $7.8 million.
Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris headline the remake Overboard, premiering next weekend. The comedy is based on a 1987 romantic comedy directed by Garry Marshall that starred Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell. It was considered a moderate success (grossing $27 million at the time). A co-production of Lionsgate and Pantelion, the latter is the same studio that turned Derbez’s How to be a Latin Lover into an unexpected success around the same time last year. That pic opened to $12.2 million and made $32 million domestically.
Rob Greenberg directs with a supporting cast that includes Eva Longoria, John Hannah, and Swoosie Kurtz. The film was originally slated for an April 20th release before being pushed back two weeks (the shift of Avengers: Infinity War likely had something to do with that). Faris has been largely absent from the big screen as she’s concentrated mostly on her CBS sitcom “Mom”. Her last headlining role came with 2012’s What’s Your Number? (which was a disappointment) and we’re a decade from her last hit The House Bunny.
Current theater counts put this at a rather low 1500 screens (it could certainly rise and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does). That’s roughly the number that Latin Lover had. I foresee Overboard posting a similar opening weekend, which should be good enough to come in second to the sophomore frame of the Marvel superheroes.
Overboard opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million
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