Blogger’s Note (08/23/18): Today’s estimated screen count of just 1100 for Searching has caused to revise down from $9.4 million to $7.1 million
Following a buzz worthy premiere earlier this year at the Sundance Film Festival, thriller Searching opens wide next weekend. The pic casts John Cho (Harold from Harold and Kumar, Sulu from the Star Trek franchise) as a father whose daughter goes missing. What makes this unique is that the film takes place almost entirely on a computer screen as he frantically attempts to locate her. Debra Messing, Michelle La, and Sara Sohn costar. Aneesh Chaganty directs.
The film opens in limited release on August 24th in just 9 theaters, with a nationwide expansion over Labor Day weekend. When Searching played at Sundance in January, it did so to solid critical notices and it stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. I could see this having a decent start (considering its low budget) in the high double digits low double digits with the possibility of legging out solidly based on word-of-mouth.
Searching opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Blogger’s Note (08/18/18): I am revising my estimate from $17.8 million down to $13.8 million
The Happytime Murders drops in theaters next weekend with a very simple concept to draw moviegoers in: Puppets Gone Wild! The very R-rated comic crime tale imagines a world where humans and puppets coexist. It comes from Brian Henson (son of Jim), who made the more family oriented Muppet pics The Muppet Christmas Carol and Muppet Treasure Island in the 1990s. Melissa McCarthy headlines the human cast along with Elizabeth Banks, Maya Rudolph, and Joel McHale. Bill Barretta is the puppet detective who used to work with McCarthy’s character.
The film’s tagline – “All Sesame, No Street” – resulted in a lawsuit from the makers of the long-running PBS program. As you could correctly guess from the red-band trailers, they had no involvement in this particular project.
Happytime should rise or fall at the box office based on audience curiosity in its gimmick. Finding reasonable comparisons for this is a tricky proposition. Two summers ago, the animated Sausage Party rode a wave of good buzz to a fantastic $34 million debut. However, this doesn’t seem to be generating similar chatter as of yet. If we want to go back in dirty puppet history, Team America: World Police earned just over $12 million in the fall of 2004.
The participation of McCarthy could help, but this is not the type of material her fans may typically rush to see. I’ll say Murders manages a debut in the mid to high teens and its word-of-mouth (positive or negative) will determine what transpires in the weeks following.
The Happytime Murders opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million
Blogger’s Note (08/14/18): On the eve of its opening, I’m upgrading my CrazyRichAsians estimate to low 20s and mid 30s for the three and five-day. That now gives it the #1 spot.
A trio of newcomers attempt to bite into the unexpected huge performance of TheMeg and it keep it from a second frame atop the charts. We have critically acclaimed rom com CrazyRichAsians, Mark Wahlberg’s action thriller Mile22, and Ice Age adventure Alpha. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Let’s start with the low hanging fruit. I don’t expect much from Alpha at all and my $5.2 million projection leaves it outside of the top five.
Even if The Meg falls over 50% in its second frame, it could still maintain the top spot with a gross in the low 20s.
However, that’s if Crazy Rich Asians doesn’t manage those numbers. My estimate has steadily risen, but its Wednesday opening could prevent it from hitting #1 (I’ve got it awfully close). Mile 22 should place third in the mid teens for a so-so start.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout should drop to fourth. The five-spot could be interesting as I have Christopher Robin and BlacKkKlansman grossing roughly the same amount.
And with that, here’s my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. CrazyRichAsians
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
3. Mile 22
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
4. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Christopher Robin
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
6. BlacKkKlansman
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 10-12)
The Meg turned out to have the quite the mega opening stateside with $45.4 million, doubling (yes DOUBLING) my meager $22.7 million estimate. Never bet against sharks apparently. The shark tale performed well overseas as well, which was needed considering its reported $150 million plus budget.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was runner-up with $19.3 million (a tad below my $21.3 million prediction) for $161 million in its three weeks of release.
Christopher Robin was third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.8 million estimate. The Disney pic has made $50 million in two weeks.
Critically reviled horror flick Slender Man was fourth, debuting to $11.3 million (a couple notches above my take of $9.1 million). Look for it (with a D- Cinemascore grade) to fade quickly.
Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman, with terrific reviews and awards buzz, started out strong on just over 1500 screens in fifth with $10.8 million (I said $9.6 million).
Finally, Dog Days premiered to totally unimpressive numbers in just 12th place with $2.5 million. I gave it way too much credit at $5.1 million. Woof.
The historical adventure Alpha debuts in theaters next weekend and it could face an uphill battle for eyeballs. The Ice Age set pic doesn’t have the benefit of animated creatures or much buzz at all. Albert Hughes directs and he’s most known for collaborations with his brother Allen including MenaceIISociety, FromHell, and TheBookofEli. Kodi Smit-McPhee, Leonor Varela, Jens Hulten, and a wolf headline the cast.
Alpha has experienced a shifting release date and Columbia Pictures finally settled on the mid August slot. It was originally scheduled for last September, back to March of this year, then September 2018, and lastly the August push-up. That doesn’t inspire much confidence.
I’ll predict this opens well behind its competition Mile22 and CrazyRichAsians and doesn’t manage double digits. In short, Alpha is looking like a dog.
Blogger’s Note II (08/14/18): My estimate is rising once again and I’m going with $22.5 million for the three-day and $33.4 million for the five-day.
Blogger’s Note (08/10/18): I am ramping up my estimate for this based on buzz from $14.2M to $19.4M for the traditional weekend and high 20s for the five-day.
In what could turn out to be some smart counter programming, romantic comedy CrazyRichAsians opens next Wednesday. The Warner Bros release is, rather shockingly, the first stateside studio effort in a quarter century (1993’s TheJoyLuckClub) to feature a predominately Asian-American cast. It’s based on a 2013 bestseller by Kevin Kwan. The cast includes Henry Golding, Constance Wu, Gemma Chan, Lisa Lu, Nico Santos, Ken Jeong, and Michelle Yeoh. Jon M. Chu, who made JustinBieber: NeverSayNever and G.I. Joe: Retaliation, directs.
The film seems to be garnering some positive buzz and it could bring out a female audience, as well as a community clearly underrepresented at multiplexes. Even with that breakout potential, the Wednesday opening probably means it’ll debut behind Mile22 with Mark Wahlberg.
I will estimate a traditional weekend opening in the low teens and that could mean a gross close to $20 million for the five-day total.
CrazyRichAsians opening weekend prediction: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $33.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Mark Wahlberg is back in action mode and reuniting with director Peter Berg next weekend in Mile 22. The action thriller finds the star as the head of an elite CIA unit and the supporting cast includes John Malkovich, Lauren Cohan, Iko Uwais, Ronda Rousey, and Lee Chae Rin.
This is the fourth Wahlberg/Berg collaboration and it’s the first not based on real life events after Lone Survivor, Deepwater Horizon, and Patriots Day. Distributor STXfilms is hoping this will be the start of a new franchise with a TV series and sequel reportedly in development.
That, of course, could all depend on how this performs. The budget is only $35 million, which is quite low for a summer action release. Looking at other similar material from Wahlberg, Mile 22 would love to achieve the $24 million earned by something like 2012’s Contraband. Yet it could debut with something closer to the $14 million made by 2007’s Shooter. The $27 million made out of the gate five summers ago by 2 Guns is a reach in my opinion… that had the Denzel factor.
I’ll say a mid to high teens gross is the most likely scenario, meaning Mile won’t achieve the marker contained in its title.
***Blogger’s Note II (08/09/18): A big change has happened. I am revising my estimate for The Meg up to $22.7 million, therefore giving it the #1 spot. I am also increasing my BlacKkKlansman estimate once again from $7.6M to $9.6M
**Blogger’s Note (08/08/18): I have revised my BlacKkKlansman estimate from $5.6M to $7.6M, which gives it the #5 spot and drops The Spy Who Dumped Me outside the top five.
A quartet of newbies attempt to dethrone Tom Cruise this weekend as shark tale TheMeg, Internet meme based horror pic SlenderMan, canine tale DogDays, and Spike Lee’s awards hopeful BlacKkKlansman all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
Of the four newcomers, TheMeg appears poised to earn the most. Audiences have proven they dig their shark flicks and the upside here is real. However, my high teens projection leaves it behind Mission: Impossible – Fallout and that would give Cruise and company a third weekend atop the charts.
Slender Man is a real question mark. Its studio doesn’t seem to have much faith in it, but horror titles can often surprise. I’m definitely at the lower end of expectations currently with a forecast in the high single digits. That would leave it lurking in fourth place behind Christopher Robin.
The five-spot depends on how the other two newcomers perform. Dog Days is opening on Wednesday and my $5.1 million estimate for its Friday to Sunday performance leaves it behind the $5.6 million I’m predicting for BlacKkKlansman (which certainly could go higher). That leaves both of them behind the second frame of The Spy Who Dumped Me, which should drop in the mid 40s range.
It’s an unpredictable weekend we have before us, but here’s how I have the top 5 looking:
1. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
3. Christopher Robin
Predicted Gross:$13.8 million
4. BlacKkKlansman
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. Slender Man
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
***If these numbers change throughout the week, I’ll post updates!
Box Office Results (August 3-5)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout had a terrific hold in weekend #2, dropping just 42% to gross $35.3 million (above my $32 million projection) and remain #1. The sixth installment of Tom Cruise’s franchise has amassed $124 million so far.
Disney’s Christopher Robin came in on the bottom end of expectations in the runner-up position with $24.5 million compared to my more generous $29.6 million estimate. Winnie the Pooh and company will hope for small declines in coming weekends.
The Mila Kunis/Kate McKinnon comedy The Spy Who Dumped Me also debuted on the low-end of the expected scale in third with just $12.1 million, under my $15.3 million forecast.
Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again was fourth with $9 million (I said $8.3 million) for $91 million in three weeks.
I mistakenly left The Equalizer 2 out of the top five, but it was fifth with $8.7 million. The Denzel Washington sequel has made $79 million and looks to potentially top the $101 million earned by its predecessor.
Hotel Transylvania 3 was sixth with $8 million (I was lower at $6.9 million) and it’s earned $136 million overall. The franchise has shown remarkable consistency and I’d look for a fourth installment in about three years.
Finally, YA adaptation The Darkest Minds suffered a bad opening in 8th place with $5.8 million, in line with my $6.3 million prediction.
***Blogger’s Note II (08/09/18): My estimate is once again increasing – from $7.6M to $9.6M
**Blogger’s Note (08/08/18): I have revised my estimate from $5.6M up to $7.6M
The latest Spike Lee joint is the first in a while that comes with Oscar buzz and widespread critical acclaim when BlacKkKlansman debuts next weekend. The true life crime flick about an African-American detective infiltrating the Ku Klux Klan premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and was instantly a highlight. Its Rotten Tomatoes score stands at 96%.
The cast includes John David Washington (son of Denzel), Adam Driver, Laura Harrier, Topher Grace, Corey Hawkins, Paul Walter Hauser, and Harry Belafonte. Jason Blum and Jordan Peele serve as producers. The awards buzz could give this a shot at performing decently as it opens on approximately 1500 screens.
One comp that BlacKkKlansman might want to avoid is Detroit, which opened around the same time last year to disappointing results. That pic made $7.1 million in its first wide release frame on about twice as many screens.
This seems to garnering more buzz, however. I’ll say Mr. Lee’s latest manages between $5-6 million.
BlacKkKlansman opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million
Blogger’s Note (08/01/18): I am revising my estimate due to the film’s release on Wednesday next week, not Friday from $6.4 million down to $5.1 million.
An ensemble of familiar actors and an ensemble of canines come together for the family dramedy DogDays, which hits theaters next weekend. The film is directed by Ken Marino, who last made the successful comedy HowtoBeaLatinLover. Cast members include Eva Longoria, Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, Lauren Lapkus, Thomas Lennon, Adam Pally, Rob Corddry, Tig Notaro, and Finn Wolfhard.
Movies dealing with man’s best friend can certainly post pleasing results, like MarleyandMe and ADog’sPurpose. Yet I don’t see DogDays achieving their grosses. Its upstart studio LD Entertainment doesn’t exactly have a strong track record producing hits. A better comp here could be this May’s Show Dogs, which debuted to just $6 million.
I’ll say this manages to just outdo that number.
DogDays opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Note (08/03/18): I am revising my estimate down from $12.1 million to $9.1 million
No matter how it performs next weekend, SlenderMan should certainly achieve the biggest horror opening of all time for a movie based on an Internet meme. The supernatural tale comes from director Sylvain White with a cast including Joey King, Julia Goldani Telles, Jaz Sinclair, Annalise Basso, Talitha Bateman, and Javier Botet.
Based on the frightening meme that hit our small screens nearly a decade ago, this Screen Gems release was originally scheduled for release in May before the August pushback. Horror flicks can always exceed expectations, but I’m skeptical here. Shark tale TheMeg could provide serious competition for eyeballs. Furthermore, the marketing campaign for this seems a tad subdued.
I’ll project SlenderMan struggles to reach the teens for its start.
SlenderMan opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million
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