Tag: box office predictions

Serenity Box Office Prediction

Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway lend their star power to the thriller Serenity, out next weekend. The pic was originally slated for a fall 2018 release before its delay to January, which can often serve as a dumping ground for certain titles. Steven Knight directs with Diane Lane, Jason Clarke, Djimon Hounsou, and Jeremy Strong in the supporting cast.

The studio seems to be treating this as an afterthought. Marketing has been pretty slim. While McConaughey has had some hits since his Oscar win five years ago, there’s been some flops including Free State of Jones, Gold, and White Boy Rick. Hathaway has a better track record as of late, but I’m not convinced her participation will help matters.

Serenity has a $25 million budget, so at least its potential losses shouldn’t be too significant. Like the trio of previous McConaughey titles, I don’t have this hitting double digits.

Serenity opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my The Kid Who Would Be King prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/16/the-kid-who-would-be-king-box-office-prediction/

The Kid Who Would Be King Box Office Prediction

A juvenile rendering of the King Arthur tale hits theaters next weekend with the family fantasy The Kid Who Would Be King. It comes from director Joe Cornish, whose 2011 debut Attack the Block (marking the debut of John Boyega) was a critical favorite. This marks his awaited sophomore effort. The title character is played by newcomer Louis Ashbourne Serkis, son of motion capture king Andy. Costars include Tom Taylor, Rebecca Ferguson, and Patrick Stewart.

Early reviews are encouraging with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 85%. It could help that the family friendly holiday holdovers have started to wane. That said, the marketing campaign hasn’t been robust and followers of the filmmaker’s first feature belong in a niche market.

I think Kid could manage to hit double digits while teens could be a reach. That might get it to second place next weekend behind the sophomore frame of Glass.

The Kid Who Would Be King opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million

For my Serenity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/17/serenity-box-office-prediction/

January 18-21 Box Office Predictions

The four-day Martin Luther King holiday frame brings just one new release and it’s a big one as M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass debuts. The melding of the director’s past hits Unbreakable and Split looks to achieve January’s second largest debut ever. You can peruse my detailed prediction post for it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/08/glass-box-office-prediction/

While reviews have been mixed at best, I have a hunch Glass could be fairly critic proof (think Venom from a few months back). My low 70s estimate for its Friday to Monday performance easily has it dominating the charts and nabbing the month’s runner-up status as far as all-time openers behind 2015’s American Sniper.

With no new wide releases out, The Upside should fall to second after its better than anticipated premiere (more on that below). Aquaman, A Dog’s Way Home, and Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse should fill out the rest of the top five.

My estimates are as follows and keep in mind they’re for the four days of grosses:

1. Glass

Predicted Gross: $72.1 million

2. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million

3. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. A Dog’s Way Home

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

5. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

Box Office Results (January 11–13)

As mentioned, The Upside had just what its name suggested. The Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama surprised prognosticators like me with a healthy start of $20.3 million, easily surpassing my $11.6 million projection. It’s further proof of Hart’s potency at the box office and marks the first #1 opening for studio STX Entertainment.

Aquaman was second after three weeks on top with $17.3 million, in line with my $17.7 million prediction. The impressive total stands at $287 million.

A Dog’s Way Home had a so-so start in third with $11.2 million – not quite reaching my guesstimate of $12.8 million.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The animated superhero tale (fresh off a Golden Globe win for Best Animated Film) made $9 million to bring its tally to $147 million.

Escape Room was close behind in fifth with $8.9 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $32 million.

Mary Poppins Returns fell to sixth with $7.6 million (I went higher with $8.8 million). The Disney sequel has made $151 million.

The Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic On the Basis of Sex expanded nationwide and placed eighth with $6 million. I went with a little more at $7.9 million.

Finally, the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas bombed badly in 13th with just $2.3 million compared to my take of $3.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Glass Box Office Prediction

When it debuts over the MLK four-day holiday weekend, M. Night Shyamalan’s Glass will easily break into the number one spot. Questions about its potential ceiling are very real. The superhero thriller mixes the casts of two of the filmmaker’s best known works – 2000’s Unbreakable and 2017’s Split. That means James McAvoy, Bruce Willis, Samuel L. Jackson, Spencer Treat Clark and Anya-Taylor Joy are along for the ride as well as Sarah Paulson joining this cinematic universe. No other movie opens wide against it.

Just over 18 years ago, Unbreakable was Night’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to his breakthrough smash hit The Sixth Sense. Audiences had a mixed reaction at the time, but it managed a five-day Thanksgiving haul of $46 million before a final domestic gross of $95 million. Its reputation has grown in many circles in time. Two years ago, Split served as a major comeback vehicle for the director with a $40 million start as it legged out to $138 million.

I believe the positive response for Split will earn this impressive results. It only helps that it’s still fresh in the minds of audiences, including the ending that set up this picture. Word-of-mouth will determine the rest.

Glass will not shatter this holiday weekend’s record, which is held by American Sniper at $107 million. Earning the #2 honors over MLK should be a breeze as that’s currently held by Ride Along at $48 million.

Prognostications have this nabbing anywhere between $50-75 million from Friday to Monday. I have a hunch the higher end of that range is the route to go.

*On the eve of its premiere, I’m downgrading from $72.1 million to $58.1 million

Glass opening weekend prediction: $58.1 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

January 11-13 Box Office Predictions

Three newbies make their way to the screen this weekend as canine tale A Dog’s Way Home, Kevin Hart/Bryan Cranston comedic drama The Upside, and the Keanu Reeves sci-fi thriller Replicas debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/a-dogs-way-home-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/the-upside-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/03/replicas-box-office-prediction/

Even with the trio of openings, it appears Aquaman will glide into a fourth straight weekend atop the charts with a high teens take. The superhero saga’s reign will certainly end the following weekend with Glass being unveiled.

Other titles will likely struggle to reach the teens. I have Dog’s managing a #2 showing with The Upside not far behind.

Replicas appears to be getting dumped and my $3.4 million projection leaves it well outside the top five. We have an expansion with On the Basis of Sex, the Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic that’s performed well in limited release and is slated for approximately 2000 screens Friday. I’ll put its number at $7.9 million. I believe that gets it to a 7th place rollout.

Returnees Escape Room and Mary Poppins Returns are my picks for the rest of the high-five and here’s the estimates:

1. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million

2. A Dog’s Way Home

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

3. The Upside

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million

4. Escape Room

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Mary Poppins Returns

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

Box Office Results (January 4–6)

As anticipated, Aquaman logged another frame in first place with $31 million, topping my $27.9 million projection for an impressive $260 million three-week total.

New horror thriller Escape Room made off with a terrific $18.2 million start in second, more than doubling its meager $9 million budget.

Mary Poppins Returns fell to third in its third weekend with $15.8 million compared to my higher $18.7 million prediction. Total tally is $138 million.

Bumblebee was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.2 million) as it sniffs the century mark at $97 million.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse rounded out the top five with $13.1 million, slinging beyond my $10.9 million forecast. It’s made $133 million thus far.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Replicas Box Office Prediction

Keanu Reeves returns to science fiction territory next weekend with the release of Replicas. The thriller casts him as a neuroscientist who clones his family after they’re killed in an auto accident. Costars include Alice Eve, Thomas Middleditch, and John Ortiz. Jeffrey Nachmanoff, best known as the screenwriter for The Day After Tomorrow, directs.

While its lead has certainly had success in the genre (The Matrix), it hasn’t always been that way (Johnny Mnemonic anyone?). Reeves should have a hit at the box office this year, but that will come in May with John Wick: Parabellum. This effort appears to be getting the unceremonious January dump.

I’ll say Replicas gets low single digits and disappears quickly.

Replicas opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my The Upside prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/the-upside-box-office-prediction/

For my A Dog’s Way Home prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/a-dogs-way-home-box-office-prediction/

A Dog’s Way Home Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping A Dog’s Way Home will be a good boy next weekend when it hits theaters. The film tracks a pup trying to get back to his owner with a cast including Ashley Judd, Edward James Olmos, Alexandra Shipp, Wes Studi, and Bryce Dallas Howard voicing the adorable title character. Charles Martin Smith, who is no stranger to animal tales having made Dolphin Tale and its sequel, directs.

When looking at recent Hollywood canine creations, there’s a wide range of possibilities in comparisons. Two years ago, A Dog’s Purpose took in just over $18 million out of the gate. In the summer of 2017, Megan Leavey disappointed with just under $4 million. This past summer, Dog Days managed just $2.5 million.

My feeling is that this will perform closer to Purpose and not the other features mentioned. However, I’ll say a double digits to low teens range is as far as the opening leash goes.

A Dog’s Way Home opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my The Upside prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/the-upside-box-office-prediction/

For my Replicas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/03/replicas-box-office-prediction/

The Upside Box Office Prediction

An adaptation of the well-regarded 2011 French film The Intouchables, next weekend sees the long brewing release of the comedic drama The Upside. Kevin Hart stars as a former convict who starts working for a paraplegic billionaire played by Bryan Cranston. Nicole Kidman costars and Neil Burger (who recently made Limitless and Divergent) directs.

The Upside first premiered at the Toronto Film Festival way back in the fall of 2017 and was shelved for months when the Weinstein Company fell into its well publicized controversies. Critical reaction from Canada was mixed with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 55%.

Hart has been subject to his own negative publicity lately that resulted in his dropping out of hosting the Oscars. He’s been a consistently strong commodity at the box office over the past few years. However, that’s been with pictures played just for laughs without the dramatic elements. His potency in slightly more serious material is questionable.

A January release isn’t a major sign of confidence from its studio. I’ll say Hart and company could get this to high teens at its upside, but I suspect low double digits to teens is the likelihood.

The Upside opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

For my A Dog’s Way Home prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/02/a-dogs-way-home-box-office-prediction/

For my Replicas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/01/03/replicas-box-office-prediction/

January 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Happy New Year and welcome to the first box office predictions for 2019. It should be a weekend led by holiday holdovers with the only newcomer being horror pic Escape Room. You can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/28/escape-room-box-office-prediction/

My low teens projection puts the newbie in the #3 slot, behind returning champions Aquaman and Mary Poppins Returns, with Bumblebee and Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse filling out the rest of the top five.

Let’s see how I have the high-five playing out:

1. Aquaman

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

2. Mary Poppins Returns

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

3. Escape Room

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. Bumblebee

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

5. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

Box Office Results (December 28–30)

2018 was a record year at multiplexes and it closed out with Aquaman repeating in first place with $52.1 million, in range with my $53.8 million forecast. The DC superhero tale has amassed $189 million total.

Mary Poppins Returns was in the runner-up position yet again with $28.3 million compared to my $26.5 million estimate. The Disney sequel stands at $99 million.

Bumblebee was third with $20.9 million (I said $21.4 million) for $67 million overall.

Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse was fourth with $18.8 million, a touch higher than my $17.3 million take. The acclaimed animated feature crossed the century mark at $104 million.

The Mule rounded out the top five with $12.1 million, in line with my $11.5 million prediction. The Clint Eastwood thriller has made $61 million.

Vice was sixth and made the most of the two Christmas openers with $7.7 million over the traditional frame and $17.6 million since its Tuesday debut. The Dick Cheney biopic managed to top my respective estimates of $7.2 million and $14.8 million.

The critically lambasted Holmes & Watson had an underwhelming start in seventh with $7.4 million from Friday to Sunday and $19.8 million since Christmas Day. It came in under my projections of $11.3 million and $23 million.

Second Act was eighth in its sophomore frame at $7.3 million (I said $7.9 million) for a tally of $21 million.

Ralph Breaks the Internet was ninth at $6.7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million prediction. It’s up to $175 million.

The Grinch had a hefty drop-off in 10th at $4.1 million, well under my $7.3 million forecast. The total gross is $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Escape Room Box Office Prediction

Six strangers attempt to survive a deadly series of the title here in the horror pic Escape Room, out next Friday. It’s my first box office prediction for a 2019 feature and it comes from Adam Robitel, best known for directing 2018’s sequel Insidious: The Last Key (which was my first projection for this current year). Cast members include Logan Miller, Deborah Ann Woll, Taylor Russell, Tyler Labine, Jay Ellis, and Nik Dodani.

The market could certainly be ready for a fright fest, but whether Escape Room hits that spot for genre fans is questionable (especially with Glass coming two weeks later). The aforementioned Insidious entry had the benefit of being part of a successful franchise. It opened to just over $29 million almost one year ago.

I’ll estimate that this achieves less than half of that number with the caveat that horror flicks can manage to outdo expectations in January.

Escape Room opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million