The third generation of the Shaft family debuts in theaters next weekend with Jessie Usher playing an FBI agent in the action pic. Arriving nearly 50 years after Richard Roundtree played John Shaft and almost two decades after Samuel L. Jackson played his nephew, both actors are present in the newest iteration. Tim Story (maker of the RideAlong pics) directs with a supporting cast including Alexandra Shipp, Regina Hall, and Method Man.
Reportedly made for a smallish $30 million budget, the studio behind Shaft would love to match the $21 million opening weekend debut of the 2000 Jackson led summer flick. Tracking puts in right in that range. However, we’ve seen reboots disappoint in 2019.
I’ll say this gets to mid to high teens and considering the price tag, that’s not too shabby.
Shaft opening weekend prediction: $16.8 million
For my MeninBlack: International prediction, click here:
The Men in Black are back onscreen for the first time in seven years, but they look a lot different this time around. Subtitled International, this is a sequel/reboot of the franchise that ruled the summer 22 years ago. Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones are nowhere to be found. Instead it’s Marvel Cinematic Universe and Thor: Ragnarok stars Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson in the lead roles with F. Gary Gray taking over directorial duties from Barry Sonnenfeld. The supporting cast includes Rebecca Ferguson, Kumail Nanjiani, Rafe Spall, Liam Neeson, and Emma Thompson (reprising her role from 2012’s MIB3).
Despite its two stars being part of this season’s behemoth Avengers: Endgame, audiences might be skeptical to revisit a two decade old series that they identified with Smith (currently headlining the hit Aladdin). Comparing the opening grosses of the MIB trilogy that preceded it is tricky. All three opened over holiday weekends with the first two over July 4th and the third over Memorial Day weekend. Their traditional Friday to Sunday grosses were consistent in the low to mid 50s. When factoring in the extra holiday additions, parts one and two got into the 80s with #3 nearing $70 million. It’s worth mentioning that each entry earned less domestically overall than the previous one.
MeninBlack: International, holiday or no holiday, looks bound for the lowest premiere yet in the franchise. I’ll say low 30s.
MeninBlack: International opening weekend prediction: $30.7 million
If there’s a theme to this first full June weekend at the box office, it might be sequels not matching up to what’s come before. TheSecretLifeofPets2 and DarkPhoenix are the two newbies hitting screens and you can peruse my detailed predictions for each of them here:
The original Pets got off to an animated start three summers ago with $104 million. Part 2 is not expected to match it and I’m going with a mid 60s beginning. It should still face no issues topping the charts as the prospects for DarkPhoenix look dim.
It’s the final entry in the current iteration of the X-Men Universe and buzz appears lackluster (especially after the ho-hum reaction to 2016’s X–Men: Apocalypse). My mid 40s take gives it the worst premiere of any X title thus far.
As for holdovers, Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters was a big disappointment and I anticipate a sophomore decline in the mid 50s range. That could drop it to fourth place with Aladdin in third and Rocketman rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I have the top 5 panning out:
1. TheSecretLifeofPets2
Predicted Gross: $65.2 million
2. DarkPhoenix
Predicted Gross: $45.3 million
3. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $26.5 million
4. Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. Rocketman
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (May31–June2)
As mentioned, Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters landed with a thud with $47.7 million – well below my $58.7 million projection. The reported $200 million dollar production made just over half of what 2014’s Godzilla ($91 million) took in for its start. Additionally it couldn’t reach the heights of 2017’s Kong: SkullIsland and its $61 million rollout. The two creatures will face each other next spring in Godzillavs. Kong.
Aladdin was second with $42.8 million in weekend #2 and held up a bit better than my $40.3 million estimate. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $185 million total.
The Elton John biopic Rocketman had a decent start in third with $25.7 million. I thought it would fly higher at $36.1 million. It’s still a fine opening for an R rated counter programming offering in blockbuster season, though it is just half of what BohemianRhapsody accomplished a few short months ago.
Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer was fourth and landed in line with expectations at $18 million (I said $17.2 million). Considering its tiny $5 million price tag, it’s yet another profitable success for the studio.
JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum was fifth with $11 million (I went with $12.7 million) as it brought its earnings to $125 million.
Closing out the latest chapter of the X-Men Universe that began in 2011, DarkPhoenix rises or falls in theaters next weekend. The fourth official entry in the current franchise iteration is a direct sequel to 2016’s X–Men: Apocalypse. This one is focused more on the Jean Grey character played by Sophie Turner, but it brings back Jennifer Lawrence as Mystique, James McAvoy as Charles Xavier, and Michael Fassbender as Magneto. The familiar cast additionally includes Nicholas Hoult, Tye Sheridan, Alexandra Shipp, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Evan Peters with Jessica Chastain joining the fray for the first time. Simon Kinberg, responsible for penning three previous X pics, makes his directorial debut.
Phoenix comes at a time where the franchise is going through a major transition. With Disney’s recent acquisition of Fox, it is believed the X-Men characters will be cast anew and melded with the vaunted Marvel Cinematic Universe at some juncture. The series is coming off Apocalypse, which didn’t impress critics and had a $155 million overall domestic gross that ranked well under predecessor DaysofFuturePast. The next X title (spin-off TheNewMutants) is out next spring and has been delayed on numerous occasions.
Anticipation seems muted here. Phoenix has the very real possibility of having the lowest premiere ever in the franchise’s history. That distinction for a non spin-off currently belongs to the 2000 original, which started with $54 million (not adjusted for inflation). Just below that is 2013’s TheWolverine at $53 million.
The opportunity for Disney to reinvigorate the series is coming, but I’ll project this latest entry will mark an overall low in earnings.
DarkPhoenix opening weekend prediction: $45.3 million
For my TheSecretLifeofPets2 prediction, click here:
Illumination Entertainment is back in the summer blockbuster animation game next weekend with the release of TheSecretLifeofPets2. The follow-up to the 2016 smash has Chris Renaud back in the director’s chair. Returning voices include Kevin Hart, Eric Stonestreet, Ellie Kemper, Bobby Moynihan, Lake Bell, Dana Carvey, Hannibal Buress, and Jenny Slate. Patton Oswalt takes over the lead role of Max after Louis C.K. was dropped after recent controversies. Other familiar faces providing new voiceover work to the franchise include Tiffany Haddish, Nick Kroll, and Harrison Ford.
Three summers ago, the first Pets had a scorching start with a $104 million start and $368 million eventual domestic gross. It’s worth noting that competition on its opening weekend wasn’t as strong as DarkPhoenix will premiere against this. This sequel is garnering reviews in line with its predecessor. Part 1 ended up with a 73% Rotten Tomatoes score while this is at 68%.
I look for this to perform similarly to Illumination’s last two efforts. DespicableMe3 earned $72 million for its beginning two summers ago and Dr. Seuss’ TheGrinch made $67 million and perhaps a bit under.
TheSecretLifeofPets2 opening weekend prediction: $65.2 million
After a sizzling debut over the long Memorial Day weekend, Aladdin could slip to third as two heavy hitters join the fray: monster sequel Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters and critically lauded Elton John biopic Rocketman. We also have low budget Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer that has breakout potential. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:
Godzilla should manage to stomp the competition, but I do have it coming in lower than its 2014 predecessor and just under what 2017’s Kong: SkullIsland achieved. As for Rocketman, there’s Oscar nod buzz for star Taron Egerton and the genre heat from last fall’s smash BohemianRhapsody. I have it debuting with about $15 million less than the Queen flick, but that still means mid 30s.
As for Ma, I have it over tripling its puny $5 million budget for fourth place. Aladdin may experience a mid 50s dip after ruling the holiday and JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum should round out the top five.
And with that, my forecast for the weekend:
1. Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters
Predicted Gross: $58.7 million
2. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $40.3 million
3. Rocketman
Predicted Gross: $36.1 million
4. Ma
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
5. JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
BoxOfficeResults (May24–27)
Despite a poorly received first trailer and questions about its potency with audiences, Disney’s Aladdin exceeded all expectations and granted the studio’s money-making wishes with $116.8 million. That blew away my $74.8 million estimate.
JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum dropped to second with $30.9 million over the four-day, topping my $27 million take. The Keanu Reeves action sequel is already at $107 million in two weeks and has the set the franchise record domestically.
Avengers: Endgame was third with $22 million (I said $22.5 million), hitting an astonishing $803 million.
Pokemon: DetectivePikachu was fourth with $17.2 million compared to my $16.4 million projection and $120 million thus far.
All newbies without a blue genie struggled. Horror superhero tale Brightburn was fifth with $9.6 million. I was right on target at $9.7 million. Acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart was sixth with $8.7 million. Again, I was on the money with an $8.6 million prediction.
Blumhouse Productions continues its output of ultra low-budget horror pics that could see impressive returns next weekend with the release of Ma. Made for a tiny reported budget of $5 million, Oscar winner Octavia Spencer is cast as a homicidal veterinary aide terrorizing a group of teens. Ma reunites its star with her director from TheHelp, Tate Taylor (whose last effort was TheGirlontheTrain). Costars include Juliette Lewis, Diana Silvers, Luke Evans, McKaley Miller, and Missi Pyle.
The studio has been down this road before with blockbuster efforts like GetOut and HappyDeathDay. I don’t expect Ma to reach their levels. While there’s no direct genre competition, Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters and Rocketman could divert eyeballs elsewhere. Yet this could certainly triple or quadruple its budget out of the gate with an African-American audience and a teenage crowd.
Ma opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
For my Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters prediction, click here:
After a stellar premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, Rocketman plays its way into theaters next weekend. The long planned biopic of legendary piano man Elton John starring Taron Egerton comes on the heels of similar genre entry and smash hit BohemianRhapsody. It even shares a director in Dexter Fletcher, who filled in on the Freddie Mercury tale after Bryan Singer was dropped from the project. Costars here include Jamie Bell, Richard Madden, and Bryce Dallas Howard.
The film’s French Riviera rollout resulted in praise for Egerton. An Oscar nod for him (especially after Rami Malek won in 2018 as Mercury) is certainly feasible. Some reviews were mixed, but this currently holds an 88% Rotten Tomatoes score.
As mentioned, the easiest comp is Rhapsody, which debuted to an amazing $51 million in November with $216 million total domestically. However, while buzz is strong here, it likely won’t reach those heights in the busy summer season. I still think mid to high 30s can be reached and that would have Elton’s story still standing tall.
Rocketman opening weekend prediction: $36.1 million
For my Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters prediction, click here:
Continuing its own cinematic universe that will lead to two monstrous creatures facing off next spring, Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters stomps into multiplexes next weekend. The reported $200 million dollar film is a sequel to 2014’s Godzilla reboot from Gareth Edwards. Michael Dougherty takes over directorial duties with a cast including Kyle Chandler, Vera Farmiga, Millie Bobby Brown of “Stranger Things” fame, Bradley Whitford, Charles Dance, Thomas Middleditch, and O’Shea Jackson Jr. Returnees from part one are Sally Hawkins, David Strathairn, and Ken Watanabe.
As mentioned, Monsters is part of a larger Warner Bros scheme to get the giant green nuclear waste creation to grapple with the world’s best known giant ape. Godzillavs. Kong will hit screens in March of 2020. Five summers ago, Godzilla debuted to a cool $91 million on its way to $200 million domestically. In 2017, Kong: SkullIsland made $61 million out of the gate and $168 million total.
I would anticipate we’ll see Kong money and not Godzilla cash here and perhaps a bit less. Mid to high 50s seems probable with overseas earnings expected to be anything but toxic.
Godzilla: KingoftheMonsters opening weekend prediction: $58.7 million
It’s Memorial Day at the box office with Disney looking to dominate the four-day holiday weekend with their live-action rendering of Aladdin starring Will Smith. We also have the superhero horror flick Brightburn and critically acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
There’s little doubt that the Fresh Prince’s genie will open at #1. How much it makes is very much in question. My mid 70s forecast is toward the lower end of estimates. While it’s always risky to underestimate the vaunted Mouse Factory marketing machine, they’ve already had one under performer weeks ago with Dumbo and reaction to this particular remake seems mixed.
Slots 2-4 are likely to be held by holdovers and that starts with JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum after its dynamite debut (more on that below). Its gross is probably a bit front loaded, so a dip over 50% wouldn’t be surprising.
On the other hand, Avengers: Endgame should follow the path of other MCU titles that premiered in late April or early May with a minor drop in the 20s. I have PokemonDetectivePikachu slated for a mid 30s subtraction.
As for the newcomers, both have breakout potential but I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on either exceeding expectations. Brightburn should fare a bit better than Booksmart, if for no other reason than its higher screen count.
And with that, a top 6 take on my Friday to Monday predictions:
1. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $74.8 million
2. JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $27 million
3. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $22.5 million
4. PokemonDetectivePikachu
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
5. Brightburn
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
6. Booksmart
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
BoxOfficeResults (May17–19)
JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum sped to a terrific start and zoomed past most projections, including mine. The Keanu Reeves sequel made $56.8 million compared to my $45.8 million estimate. That sets the franchise record by over $25 million and is good for Mr. Reeves second largest opening ever behind TheMatrixReloaded.
Avengers: Endgame dropped to second after three weeks on top with $29.9 million, in line with my $28.5 million prediction. The massive tally is at $771 million.
In its sophomore outing, PokemonDetectivePikachu was third with $25.1 million. I was right there at $25.2 million as it approaches the century mark with $94 million.
ADog’sJourney flopped with just $8 million in fourth compared to my $11.8 million projection. That’s less than half of what predecessor ADog’sPurpose achieved. Woof.
TheHustle rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $7.1 million) for $23 million overall.
Finally, YA romance TheSunIsAlsoaStar had a dim start in eighth with just $2.5 million. I went higher at $5.5 million.
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