Tag: Blumhouse

July 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Tom Cruise hopes to follow up the biggest hit of his career with a franchise best opening for the signature franchise as Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opens on Wednesday. It is the only newcomer out and you can peruse detailed prediction post on it here:

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Box Office Prediction

Cruise’s star power is the highest it’s been in years coming off the nearly billion and a half plus earning Top Gun: Maverick from last summer. In order to post the largest start among the seven missions, Reckoning will need to top the $61 million made by predecessor Fallout in 2018. I’m projecting it will do so with over $10 million to spare and bring in over $100 million when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers.

The real battle should be for second place. Coming off a surprise victory, Insidious: The Red Door should experience the heftiest decline (mid 60s) of the top five. This might cause a drop of 1st to 4th if Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny falls in the 50-55% range.

Sound of Freedom, the thriller from upstart Angel Studios, was the real story of the previous frame (more on that below). With an A+ Cinemascore grade, it should have the smallest decline other than Elemental in fifth position. If the dip is lower than my estimated 40%, it might just manage to rise from third to second. I’ll give Indy the slight edge. However, it might be worth keeping an eye on daily grosses throughout the week.

Here’s how I see the high five playing out:

1. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Predicted Gross: $72.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $102.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

3. Sound of Freedom

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Insidious: The Red Door

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

Box Office Results (July 7-9)

As mentioned, horror fans were ready for scares as Insidious: The Red Door opened impressively. The fifth pic in the series which started in 2010 posted the second highest debut behind #2 in 2013 with $33 million. That’s beyond my $25.2 million prediction as the Sony/Blumhouse production has already doubled its reported $16 million budget.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was second in weekend #2 after its lackluster beginning. Sliding 55%, the $27.4 million gross was on pace with my $28 million take. The fifth go-round in this franchise is at $122 million after ten disappointing days for Disney.

The aforementioned Sound of Freedom employed shrewd marketing tactics that included a pay it forward method where viewers could purchase tickets for others. Jim Caviezel’s tale of taking on human traffickers reached its intended conservative and faith-based crowd and then some. The Friday to Sunday haul was $19.6 million for third place, easily outpacing my $12.5 million estimate. Since its unveiling on Tuesday, July 4th, the total is $41 million. Needless to say, Angel Studios has established itself as a player in the box office game.

Elemental was fourth with $10 million, ahead of my $8 million projection. Pixar’s latest finally crossed the century mark at $109 million.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse rounded out the top five with $8 million (I said $7.8 million) for $357 million overall.

Finally, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Joy Ride stalled. It was sixth with just $5.8 million compared to my $8.4 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

M3GAN Box Office Prediction

It’s nice to have a trailer that’s inspired countless memes – mainly from its demented title character doll busting creepy dance moves. M3GAN is the first wide release of 2023 and it appears poised to start the year off on a profitable note. The sci-fi horror pic comes from director Gerard Johnstone with a screenplay by Malignant scribe Akela Cooper. Jason Blum and James Wan serve as producers as the Blumhouse label looks to have another buzzy hit. Allison Williams headlines the cast and she’s no stranger to moneymaking fright fests that open early in the calendar year (2017’s Get Out). The supporting players include Violet McGraw, Ronny Chieng, and Brian Jordan Alvarez.

With a marketing campaign showcasing the alarming and humorous robotic pal, M3GAN may open on pace with other hit genre pics of recent times. I could see it debuting somewhere in between the $30 million from last January’s Scream reboot and the near $23 million that Smile took in during the fall. That’ll be enough to produce smiles and screams of joy for Universal.

M3GAN opening weekend prediction: $24.8 million

Oscar Predictions: Nanny

Nikyatu Jusu’s directorial debut Nanny first drew viewers earlier this year at Sundance and will be screened in Toronto next week. Anna Diop stars as a Senegalese caretaker working for an affluent NYC family. Their arrangement appears, judging from the trailer, to morph into arthouse horror territory. Costars include Michelle Monaghan, Sinqua Walls, and Morgan Spector.

After its festival run, Nanny is slated for a limited November 23rd theatrical run before its streaming rollout on December 16th via Amazon Prime. Reviews are continuing to pop up as it plays other fests throughout the country and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 90%. It won the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. The last two winners of that award were the Best Picture nominated Minari in 2020 and last year’s CODA which, of course, took home the Academy’s biggest prize. I would also note that the five winners before that came nowhere near a BP nod.

Diop is receiving raves along with appreciation for Jusu’s original screenplay. Nanny would really need some high profile love from critics groups before I’d consider entering this into Academy chatter. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

They/Them Review

John Logan’s directorial debut They/Them tries to mix social commentary with the slasher genre. The result doesn’t feel sharp or incisive and it especially doesn’t provide many scares. Logan has written many a screenplay (from Gladiator to The Aviator to Skyfall) and it’s a little shocking how much of a misfire this blend ends up being.

A group of teens and young adults arrive at the Whistler Camp run by Owen (Kevin Bacon) and wife Cora (Carrie Preston). It’s billed as a conversion camp for the LGBTQ community though Owen insists the experience is all about finding your true self. Their educational methods are soon discovered to be on the bizarre and barbaric side with non-binary Jordan (Theo Germaine) as the most vocal critic. Another skeptic is Molly (Anna Chlumsky), a newly employed nurse at the facility. She’s the only member of the staff not drinking the Kool-Aid.

In addition to the horror of Owen’s work, there’s a potential Friday the 13th situation happening with a masked killer on the grounds. That part of the storyline is put on the back burner mostly until the third act and the eventual twists are pretty obvious.

For the majority of its length, They/Them struggles mightily with its tone. We have glimmers of camp (including a cringe worthy Pink singalong) and then a therapy session that goes for Get Out vibes and fails. Some of the performances are decent. A small subplot about deeply closeted high schooler (Anna Lore) and her budding romance with the more confident Veronica (Monique Kim) might have been interesting in a different movie.

Despite the clever title with a double meaning (they slash them), the picture itself never solves its own identity crisis. By doing so, it certainly does a disservice to the issues it tries to explore.

*1/2 (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: They/Them

At first glance, even writing an Oscar predictions post for They/Them might seem a little silly. The slasher pic set at a conversion camp premieres on Peacock tomorrow and reunites Kevin Bacon with the bloody genre 42 years after Friday the 13th. 

It doesn’t seem as silly considering it’s the directorial debut of John Logan. He also serves as sole writer for the project and he’s a three-time Academy nominee for his penned works: 2000’s Gladiator, 2004’s The Aviator, and 2011’s Hugo. 

Yet despite his scripting a trio of Best Picture nominees, reviews for this Blumhouse produced offering are mixed at best. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is currently at 50%. That makes this equation simple as They/Them will nab as many Academy mentions as Friday the 13th. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

July 1-4 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M

Coming off a weekend where four pictures posted grosses north of $20 million (a first since 2018!), Minions: The Rise of Gru looks to set box office fireworks and rule the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Minions: The Rise of Gru Box Office Prediction

The five-year wait between entries for the Despicable Me/Minions franchise could limit its potential a bit. However, my projected four-day haul approaching $80 million will easily give it the gold.

As for holdovers, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick should duke it out for second position. While the former edged Maverick for a #1 debut (more on that below), look for Tom Cruise and company to have a better hold and likely maintain runner-up status. It’s also important to remember that overall declines for most pics should be smaller than normal considering that July 4th falls on Monday.

Jurassic World: Dominion and The Black Phone should slide spots to 4th and 5th. There’s a slight chance Phone could experience a hefty slide (due to its being in the horror genre) and Lightyear stays fifth. However, given the Pixar pic’s underperformance and hefty sophomore dip, I don’t anticipate that being the case. Plus Phone nabbed a B+ Cinemascore grade which is just fine for that genre.

With that – let’s make it a top 6 forecast and remember these are projections for Friday to Monday given the Independence Day frame:

1. Minions: The Rise of Gru

Predicted Gross: $86.4 million

2. Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. Elvis

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

4. Jurassic World: Dominion

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. The Black Phone

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

6. Lightyear

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

Box Office Results (June 24-26)

In one of the closest finishes in recent box office times, Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis was crowned king with $31.2 million. While not quite matching my $35.6 million prediction, it’s a solid number for an adult skewering musical biopic.

Top Gun: Maverick continued its epic run in second with $29.6 million. Like with Elvis, I was a little high at $34.8 million. In five weeks of release, the spectacularly performing sequel has amassed $520 million. That’s the third all-time #5 frame behind Avatar and Titanic. 

Jurassic World: Dominion fell to third after two weeks on top with $26.7 million, just under my $28.3 million take. The dino saga stands at a sturdy $303 million.

Critically appreciated fright fest The Black Phone opened in fourth with $23.6 million – ringing up a more impressive number than my $18.6 million projection. Considering its budget is only a reported $18 million, this will be yet another profitable venture for Blumhouse.

Finally, Lightyear slid from second to fifth. Crashing harder than anticipated in its second orbit after an unimpressive start, the Pixar spinoff made $18.1 million (I said $23.2 million). The two-week tally is a muted $89 million after ten days. For comparison sake, I had it making $85 million in its first three days.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Black Phone

After helming critically appreciated genre titles The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister (as well as the first Doctor Strange), Scott Derrickson is back in the horror lane this weekend with The Black Phone. Based on a short story by Joe Hill, the supernatural tale began garnering solid buzz when it premiered at Fantastic Fest last fall. Ethan Hawke is the most recognizable name in a cast that includes Mason Thames, Madeleine McGraw, Jeremy Davies, and James Ransone.

Scary movies always face an uphill battle for awards attention. Despite its 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, I don’t foresee Phone dialing up a Best Picture nod. On the other hand, particular acclaim has been afforded to its young costars Thames and McGraw. In order for them to grab any buzz in the supporting fields, the film’s box office reception would need to be fantastic. While I’ve got it performing well, I am not envisioning it reaching that kind of level. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Black Phone Box Office Prediction

After ringing up lots of positive reception last fall at Fantastic Fest, the supernatural horror pic The Black Phone arrives in theaters June 24th. Based on a short story by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson directs. His biggest blockbuster is 2016’s Doctor Strange, but he’s a veteran of the genre including helming The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister. His lead from the latter – Ethan Hawke – stars as a serial killer. Costars include Mason Thames, Madeleine McGraw, Jeremy Davies, and James Ransone.

In September 2021, Phone garnered serious buzz at the Austin fest. While some reviewers nitpicked pacing issues, the Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with particular praise for its young performers Thames and McGraw. With a reported budget of under $20 million, this should be another profitable venture for Blumhouse. That production company is used to turning a tidy profit for many of their titles.

During the COVID era, frightening tales were generally immune from negative box office effects. I would look for Phone to earn its price tag back during the first weekend.

The Black Phone opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million

For my Elvis prediction, click here:

Elvis Box Office Prediction

Firestarter Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (05/12): Revising my prediction down to $6.5 million

Based on Stephen King’s 1980 novel and a reworking of the 1984 film adaptation starring a young Drew Barrymore, Firestarter hopes to heat up multiplexes on Friday the 13th. Ryan Kiera Armstrong fills Barrymore’s original role as a pyrokinetic kid with Zac Efron, Sydney Lemmon, Kurtwood Smith, and Gloria Reuben among the cast. Keith Thomas directs.

Coming from the Blumhouse label which has produced plenty of horror hits, this will be released simultaneously in theaters and on Peacock, which is still finding its way in the streaming universe. The first Firestarter 38 years ago was not a hot property at the box office as it grossed $17 million. It’s also fair to say that it isn’t considered a genre classic like other King penned cinematic properties.

Horror pics are dangerous to underestimate, but my hunch is that Firestarter may not reach $13 million. The worst case scenario could be a start in the high double digits, but I’ll say it gets a bit beyond that.

Firestarter opening weekend prediction: $6.5 million

For my Downton Abbey: A New Era prediction, click here:

Downton Abbey: A New Era Box Office Prediction

Halloween Kills Review

Laurie Strode (Jamie Lee Curtis) spends the 12th Halloween experience laid up in a hospital bed after her near mortal injuries incurred from the 11th one. In that sense, Halloween Kills is quite similar to the first official sequel from 1981. The samesies comparisons don’t stop there as this is an inferior follow-up to what came before it. The difference is that the 1978 original was a slasher classic to which all followers have been judged. 2018’s Halloween was not and therefore the letdown isn’t as steep.

Kills takes place (like Halloween II) during the immediate events after its predecessor. Laurie, daughter Karen (Judy Greer), and granddaughter Allyson (Andi Matichak) had left Michael Myers (James Jude Courtney) to burn at her tricked out house. Unsurprisingly, it turns out to be mission unaccomplished as the masked one escapes that space and leaves plenty of dead firefighters in his wake.

While Laurie is recovering from her own stabbing, Michael has his knives out for plenty of other townsfolk in Haddonfield. As you may recall, we are on our third iteration of the killer’s most famous prey reuniting with her predator. The 1981 sequel continued John Carpenter’s storyline and revealed that Laurie is Michael’s little sister. 1998’s Halloween: H20 set their sibling rivalry 20 years later.

By the time David Gordon Green and company came around and another two decades passed, 2018’s Halloween ignored all of that. The familial connection was slashed in favor of Laurie becoming a survivalist and waiting for escaped booby hatch patient Myers to find her. Kills allow for other figures in the ’78 pic to return – Tommy Doyle (who Laurie babysat) is now Anthony Michael Hall. Kyle Richards reprises her role as Lindsey, one of the other kids tormented that night. And we catch up with Sheriff Bracket (Charles Cyphers) and Nurse Chambers (Nancy Stephens). We also spend some unnecessary time with flashbacks to 40 years before that don’t add much (though if you want CG Donald Pleasance, you’re in luck).

The phrase “Evil Dies Tonight” is repeated ad nauseam as the denizens of our Illinois murder spot (led by Tommy) seek to end Michael’s return engagement. Of course, we know that ain’t happening. Halloween Kills is the second of a trilogy that will end (?) with next year’s ambitiously titled Halloween Ends. This has the feel of stopgap viewing with no real payoffs and our star player relegated to the sideline. There are a few garish highlights. I was entertained by the couple Big John (Scott MacArthur) and Little John (Michael McDonald… not that one) who live in Michael’s childhood house of horrors and probably should’ve upped their homeowners insurance. A hospital set scene where the residents chase down another of the escaped mental patients is shot effectively.

Ultimately Halloween Kills, for most of its running time, feels painfully average. It’s more violent than part one… which was actually part II if you ignore that other part II. So I suppose this is part III when ignoring nine other movies. The gimmick of Laurie coming back (again) had its pleasures in 2018. Tommy and Lindsey coming back in the mix doesn’t really cut the mustard. Michael cuts the tracheas and tendons with dutiful impassioned restraint. It seldom rises above the mediocrity where most of this series has dwelled since part one (the real one).

** (out of four)