As 2018 is nearly upon us, today begins an exploration on what and who made a lasting impression on film in 2017. And it does start with a what – in this case, a studio.
Blumhouse Productions, founded by Jason Blum, kicked off in 2009 with found footage hit ParanormalActivity. It was a massive money maker that spawned numerous sequels. From then on, Blumhouse became known for their low-budget horror flicks. This includes the Insidious, Ouija, Purge, and Sinister franchises.
Yet 2017 has marked their banner year. This started immediately in January with M. Night Shyamalan’s comeback pic Split, which debuted to $40 million and earned $138 million overall domestically. Shyamalan will be working with the studio once again with its spin-off/sequel Glass, due in 2019.
The success kept going in February with the release of Jordan Peele’s GetOut. Earning $33 million out of the gate, the acclaimed horror comedy went on to make $175 million. It’s even garnering Oscar buzz, something rare for Blumhouse (a notable exception was 2014’s Whiplash).
In the fall, HappyDeathDay premiered to $26 million and $55 million total. Not all of the studio’s offerings landed with audiences this year, including TheBelkoExperiment, BirthoftheDragon, and Sleight.
Still, there’s little doubt 2017 has offered Blumhouse its most high-profile successes. 2018 will look to replicate the wins with new Purge and Insidious editions and a reboot of the Halloween franchise.
My look back on the winners in 2017 onscreen will continue…
After this weekend’s incredibly sluggish box office frame (more on that below), Hollywood is more or less taking the Labor Day holiday off. Only two pictures are debuting and neither is a wide release. They are the Spanish language comedy Hazlo Como Hombre and oft-delayed costume drama Tulip Fever. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Even though Hombre is on 200 screens less than Tulip, I’m predicting it will have a higher opening. My $3.5 million estimate for it outshines my $1.9 million one for Tulip. Either way, my takes on the newbies put them both outside the top 5.
The good news (if you can call it that) for returnees is that this particular weekend usually sees very small declines and even increases from the previous weekend. That should mean a return engagement on top for The Hitman’s Bodyguard for the third time.
There could be a legitimate battle for #2 depending on the fluctuations of holdovers like Annabelle: Creation, Leap!, WindRiver, Dunkirk, or a potentially higher Hombre gross than I’m saying.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the holiday weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 13%)
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. Leap!
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing an increase of 15%)
4. WindRiver
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing an increase of 11%)
5. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing an increase of 10%)
Box Office Results (August 25-27)
It was, to put it mildly, a terrible weekend at the box office. Between the lack of any high-profile releases, a hurricane in Texas, and a boxing match that captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night, the top 12 sunk to its lowest level since late September 2001. Obviously, this was at a time when the country was still reeling from the 9/11 tragedy. It will clearly take It the following weekend to wake the box office from its slumber because it isn’t happening over Labor Day.
As anticipated, The Hitman’s Bodyguard repeated at #1 with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.5M estimate for a two-week total of $39M. Look for it to three peat this weekend in another disastrous frame.
Annabelle: Creation held the runner-up spot again with $7.6 million, on pace with my $7.7M projection for a $78M overall tally.
Animated Leap! debuted in third with a middling $4.7 million, a bit above my $4.1M take. The production did manage an A Cinemascore grade, so it’ll hope for a fair Labor Day gross.
I incorrectly left the Jeremy Renner thriller WindRiver outside the top 5, but it expanded its screen count to place fourth and made $4.6 million to bring its earnings to $10M.
LoganLucky was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $4M) and it’s lackluster total is $14M.
Dunkirk was sixth with $3.9 million (I estimated $4.2M) for $172M overall.
Other debuts failed to garner eyeballs. BirthoftheDragon was 8th with $2.7 million compared to my $2.9M projection. Faith based drama AllSaints faltered in 16th with $1.5 million. I was more generous with a $2.6M prediction.
The doldrums of the late August box office eclipses theaters this weekend as four new entries are scheduled to open wide: animated Leap!, Christian themed drama All Saints, martial arts pic Birth of the Dragon, and Robert Pattinson heist thriller Good Time. You can look directly at my individual prediction posts here:
As you can see, I only have one of the newbies over $4 million (ouch). Good Time is a bit of a head scratcher, since there’s no theater count yet (my estimate for it could easily change). I only have it at $1.5 million currently.
With my $2.9 million prediction for Dragon and $2.6 million prognosis for Saints, that means I only have Leap! managing a top 5 debut in fourth.
That means holdovers dominate the remainder of my picks with The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily repeating at number one and Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, and Dunkirk filling the remaining slots.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
3. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
4. Leap!
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. LoganLucky
Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
Box Office Results (August 18-20)
TheHitman’sBodyguard easily topped the box office and opened at the highest end of expectations with $21.3 million compared to my lower $16.7M estimate. The Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy could well be #1 for three weeks, considering the extreme lack of competition.
Annabelle: Creation dropped to second with $15.6 million to bring its pleasing total to $64 million. I predicted just a tad lower at $14.6M.
Despite positive reviews and considerable star power, Steven Soderbergh’s heist comedy LoganLucky opened with lackluster results in third with $7.6 million, below my $10.5M prediction.
Dunkirk was fourth with $6.6 million (I said $7M) for a $165 million overall tally.
TheNutJob2: NuttybyNature was fifth in its second weekend with $5 million, a bit above my $4.5M forecast. Its total is $17 million.
Blumhouse and WWE Studios hope that martial arts fans turn out for Birth of the Dragon, opening next weekend. Set in 1960s San Francisco, it casts Philip Ng as legend Bruce Lee and chronicles one of his most famous showdowns with Shaolin Master Wong Jack Man (Xia Yu).
The film premiered nearly a year ago at the Toronto Film Festival and it’s getting a release stateside on approximately 1500 screens. The late summer release date and lack of promotion could hinder its box office potential.
If box office predictions were made by considering the amount of Wu-Tang Clan members who might attend a screening, I’d have this higher. Minus that, I’ll say it struggles to even reach $3 million.
Birth of the Dragon opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million
The final animated feature of summer 2017 arrives next weekend when Leap! debuts in theaters. It will likely earn the least of them all. The tale of an orphan trying to become a ballerina has already opened in other parts of the world under the title Ballerina. It debuted in parts of Europe last December and in Canada this past February with a $57 million global tally.
Featuring the voices of Elle Fanning, Nat Wolff, Kate McKinnon, Carly Rae Jepsen, and Mel Brooks, the $30 million budgeted pic stands at a decent 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. Its stateside premiere comes in late August where studios aren’t exactly expecting heavy grosses. It may manage to be the biggest debut of the weekend (against All Saints, Birth of the Dragon, and Good Time). That’s not saying much.
Family audiences have seen plenty of animated tales this summer from Despicable Me 3 to Cars 3 to The Emoji Movie to Captain Underpants to The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which opened poorly just last weekend. With little ones returning to school, Leap! should have a tough road attracting eyeballs. A decent comp could be the Shaun the Sheep Movie from two summers ago, which managed only $4 million in its August premiere. That’s right about where I have this one.
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