Superheroes will rule the box office this weekend as DC’s Justice League looks to dominate the competition with Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok sliding to second in its third frame. We also have the debuts of Wonder with Julia Roberts, Owen Wilson, and Jacob Tremblay and the animated The Star. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
My Justice League estimate gives it the third highest opening of 2017 behind Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – and about $6 million above what Thor achieved just two weeks ago. Figuring in the Ragnarok gross this weekend, the DC/Marvel Cinematic Universes should account for about $150-$160 million of this pre-Thanksgiving weekend.
The 3-6 slots could get interesting. Daddy’s Home 2 rose above expectations, as did Murder on the Orient Express. I’m projecting that their sophomore frames should find them in third and fourth with Wonder rounding out the top 5 and The Star in sixth. Yet it could be close and that could change if either of the newcomers surpass expectations. Both of them stand decent shots at over performing.
And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:
1. Justice League
Predicted Gross: $128.4 million
2. Thor: Ragnarok
Predicted Gross: $25 million (representing a drop of 56%)
3. Daddy’s Home 2
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. Murder on the Orient Express
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Wonder
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
6. The Star
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
Box Office Results (November 10-12)
Thor: Ragnarok hammered all competition and set some franchise records as well. The threequel earned $57 million in weekend #2 (above my $53.8 million take) to brings its total to $212 million. In ten days, it’s already outdone both of its predecessors.
Just as the original did in December 2015, Daddy’s Home 2 surpassed forecasts. While it didn’t open with the $38 million achieved by the first Daddy’s, the sequel took in a pleasing $29.6 million. That’s well ahead of my $21.8 million prediction and on the highest end of expectations. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg follow-up hopes to continue its nice run over the next few weeks.
Kenneth Branagh’s Murder on the Orient Express also came in high with $28.6 million compared to my $24.6 million estimate. The murder mystery remake did receive a middling B Cinemascore average, but it could still play well with an adult audience for the remainder of November.
After a so-so opening that couldn’t match its predecessor from summer 2016, the second weekend of A Bad Moms Christmas delivered good news for the comedy sequel. It dropped just 32% to earn $11.4 million (topping my $8.6M estimate) to bring its two-week total to $39 million. If it continues to play well through the holidays, it may not be a disappointment after all.
Jigsaw rounded out the top five with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) to brings it tally to $34 million.
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly updated Oscar predictions are in!
Some developments from the past seven days:
Steven Spielberg’s The Post is down to just one nomination in my predictions. It’s the big one (Best Picture), but it’s clinging for dear life to the 9th spot with pics like I, Tonya and Get Out getting closer to getting in. Obviously, no one has seen it yet so this is based solely on buzz alone. We did get our first trailer for it this week at long last.
Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird makes a major leap this week into both Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). That means Blade Runner 2049 has fallen out of my predicted nine in Picture with Meryl Streep out in Actress for The Post (she held the #1 spot for weeks).
For the first time, Martin McDonagh’s directorial work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is in. That means Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name) is currently out.
In Best Actor, I’ve finally taken Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman out of the top 5, replaced with Andrew Garfield in Breathe.
Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) replaces Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water in Supporting Actor. If that happens, Call Me would be the first Supporting Actor race to feature two actors (Stuhlbarg, Armie Hammer) from the same picture since Bugsy in 1991 (Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley).
Mary J. Blige enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress, replacing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour.
That means all 8 major categories have seen changes. Lastly, there’s the unprecedented news that broke last night involving Christopher Plummer reshooting all of Kevin Spacey’s scenes in Ridley Scott’s AlltheMoneyintheWorld. Shockingly, the studio is still looking to make its December 22 release date. If that happens, Plummer might be one to look out for in Supporting Actor.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Mudbound (PR: 4)
7. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
11. Get Out (PR: 15)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)
9. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)
5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 10)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 7)
10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 3)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
9. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
5. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Get Out (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 8)
10. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dunkirk
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)
2. In the Fade (PR: 2)
3. Loveless (PR: 8)
4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)
5. The Square (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Foxtrot (PR: 5)
7. Happy End (PR: 4)
8. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 7)
9. Tom of Finland (PR: 10)
10. The Divine Order (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco (PR: 1)
2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)
3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)
4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)
5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)
7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)
8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)
9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)
10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cries from Syria (PR: 4)
2. Jane (PR: 5)
3. City of Ghosts (PR: 1)
5. Icarus (PR: 3)
5. Risk (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Step (PR: 6)
8. Kedi (PR: 10)
9. Long Strange Trip (PR: Not Ranked)
10. One of Us (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
Dina
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
10. Detroit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
The Post
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)
7. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Mudbound (PR: 7)
10. mother! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)
8. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)
10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Call Me by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)
2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)
8. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)
9. The Post (PR: 9)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
8. I, Tonya (PR: 5)
9. It (PR: 9)
10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Blade Runner 2049
Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)
2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 2)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)
7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)
9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)
10. Thor: Rangarok (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver (PR: 9)
7. Coco (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Woman (PR: 4)
9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)
4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)
5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
7. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)
8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)
9. Coco (PR: 10)
10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Detroit
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)
5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Post (PR: 7)
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)
10. Coco (PR: 5)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)
2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)
5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)
8. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)
9. “If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
That leaves the following breakdown of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Shape of Water
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
9 Nominations
Darkest Hour
7 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
6 Nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name
4 Nominations
Mudbound, Lady Bird
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman
1 Nomination
The Post, Stronger, Breathe, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Last Flag Flying, Get Out, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Loveless, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales, Ferdinand, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Risk, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker.
Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!
And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.
There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.
Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.
Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)
8. The Post (PR: 3)
9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)
14. Detroit (PR: 12)
15. Get Out (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Battle of the Sexes
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
The Big Sick
All the Money in the World
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Wonderstruck
Molly’s Game
Wind River
Coco
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)
8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)
9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)
7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)
8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Hostiles
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Algee Smith, Detroit
Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)
10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Diane Kruger, In the Fade
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)
10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World
Will Poulter, Detroit
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Patrick Stewart, Logan
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)
4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)
9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)
10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Sarah Paulson, The Post
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)
8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)
9. Stronger (PR: 10)
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
All the Money in the World
Thank You for Your Service
First, They Killed My Father
The Death of Stalin
Wonder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)
5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)
7. Get Out (PR: 8)
8. The Post (PR: 6)
9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)
10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Phantom Thread
Downsizing
Wind River
Battle of the Sexes
Coco
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)
2. In the Fade
3. First, They Killed My Father
4. Happy End
5. Foxtrot
Other Possibilities:
6. The Square
7. A Fantastic Woman
8. Loveless
9. The Divine Order
10. Tom of Finland
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children
5. Ferdinand
Other Possibilities:
6. The LEGO Batman Movie
7. Cars 3
8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie
9. Despicable Me 3
10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. City of Ghosts
2. Risk
3. Icarus
4. Cries from Syria
5. Jane
Other Possibilities:
6. Step
7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson
8. Dina
9. One of Us
10. Kedi
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Darkest Hour
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Mudbound
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Post
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Call Me by Your Name
10. Detroit
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
6. Wonderstruck
7. Mudbound
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
9. Wonder Wheel
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Darkest Hour
4. Phantom Thread
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. The Greatest Showman
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Wonder Wheel
10. Call My by Your Name
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Darkest Hour
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Victoria and Abdul
Other Possibilities:
6. Blade Runner 2049
7. The Beguiled
8. Wonder Wheel
9. The Post
10. Murder on the Orient Express
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. The Shape of Water
3. Phantom Thread
Other Possibilities:
4. The Greatest Showman
5. I, Tonya
6. Beauty and the Beast
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. It
10. Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
Other Possibilities:
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
7. Beauty and the Beast
8. Wonder Woman
9. Thor: Ragnarok
10. Kong: Skull Island
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Wonder Woman
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Other Possibilities:
6. The Shape of Water
7. Coco
8. Detroit
9. Baby Driver
10. War for the Planet of the Apes
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. Baby Driver
7. Detroit
8. Transformers: The Last Knight
9. Darkest Hour
10. Coco
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Wonderstruck
5. Coco
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
7. The Post
8. Blade Runner 2049
9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. The Greatest Showman
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Remember Me” from Coco
2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall
3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker
4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast
5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman
Other Possibilities:
6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria
7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit
8. “The Promise” from The Promise
9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman
10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman
And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:
12 Nominations
The Shape of Water
11 Nominations
Darkest Hour
10 Nominations
Dunkirk
6 Nominations
Blade Runner 2049
5 Nominations
Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread
4 Nominations
Mudbound, The Greatest Showman
3 Nominations
The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 Nominations
The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast
1 Nomination
Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker
Put on your nostalgia goggles (or maybe the sunglasses that make you forget stuff if Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones flash a light at you) because I’m recounting the summer of 1997 on the blog today!
This has become a seasonal tradition around here and I gave you the top 10 summer hits of 1987 and more earlier this week. If you missed that post, you can find it here:
This time around, we’re going back 20 years when Nicolas Cage accounted for 25% of the top 8 moneymakers and Batman crashed and burned.
We’ll begin with the top ten and then get to some other notable pics and flops:
10. Hercules
Domestic Gross: $99 million
Disney’s ‘toon couldn’t reach the century mark and that was considered a disappointment after early and mid 90s smashes like Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King.
9. Contact
Domestic Gross: $100 million
Robert Zemeckis’s follow-up to Forrest Gump (which ruled summer 1994) was a well-regarded science fiction drama with Jodie Foster and an emerging Matthew McConaughey.
8. Con Air
Domestic Gross: $101 million
This action thriller from the Bruckheimer factory is our first to feature Mr. Nicolas Cage (who was coming off a recent Oscar win), along with an all-star cast including John Cusack, John Malkovich, Steve Buscemi, and Ving Rhames.
7. George of the Jungle
Domestic Gross: $105 million
Disney probably didn’t anticipate this remake of the cartoon starring Brendan Fraser would manage to out perform Hercules, but that it did.
6. Batman and Robin
Domestic Gross: $107 million
This may have placed sixth for the summer, but Batman and Robin came in well below its three predecessors and director Joel Schumacher and new Caped Crusader George Clooney have been apologizing about it for the last 20 years. We’re still trying to block out those Arnold/Mr. Freeze bad puns.
5. Face/Off
Domestic Gross: $112 million
Mr. Cage teamed up for Mr. John Travolta for John Woo’s entertainingly over-the-top sci-fi and action mash-up.
4. My Best Friend’s Wedding
Domestic Gross: $127 million
Julia Roberts made a return to box office dominance in this rom com which featured stolen scenes from costar Rupert Everett.
3. Air Force One
Domestic Gross: $172 million
“Get off my plane!” became one of the season’s catchphrases with Harrison Ford as the butt kicking POTUS battling Russian terrorist Gary Oldman in the skies.
2. The Lost World: Jurassic Park
Domestic Gross: $229 million
Steven Spielberg’s eagerly anticipated follow-up to 1993’s Jurassic Park kicked off with the biggest opening weekend of all time (at that time). However, in the end, it couldn’t manage to top the gross of its predecessor. If you’d polled probably any box office analyst at the beginning of the year, they likely would have said it’d be #1 for the summer. Yet that honor ended up belonging to…
1. Men in Black
Domestic Gross: $250 million
A franchise was born and Will Smith made it two summers in a row with the top grossing picture (the previous year being Independence Day) with Barry Sonnenfeld’s megahit sci-fi action comedy.
And now for some other notable pics:
The Fifth Element
Domestic Gross: $63 million
Audiences and critics didn’t quite know what to make of Luc Besson’s visual feast featuring Bruce Willis, Gary Oldman, and Chris Tucker. Sound familiar? Same thing is happening 20 years later with Besson’s Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets.
Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery
Domestic Gross: $53 million
The Mike Myers 007 spoof performed well, but it wasn’t until home video that Powers turned into a genuine phenomenon spawning countless catchphrases. Its sequel two summers later would earn more in its opening weekend that part 1 did in its domestic total.
The Full Monty
Domestic Gross: $45 million
This British import about unconventional male strippers was the summer’s true sleeper and went on to earn a host of Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. Monty would earn over $250 million worldwide compared to its tiny $3.5 million budget.
Cop Land
Domestic Gross: $44 million
After appearing in a string of high-octane action flicks, Sylvester Stallone changed it up with this crime drama featuring an impressive supporting cast that included Robert De Niro, Ray Liotta, and Harvey Keitel.
And now for some of the season’s large belly flops:
Speed 2: Cruise Control
Domestic Gross: $48 million
Keanu Reeves didn’t want to touch it, but Sandra Bullock came back for this ridiculed sequel where Jason Patric was the new lead. Considered by many to be one of the worst follow-ups of all time.
Out to Sea
Domestic Gross: $29 million
Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau created comedic gold with The Fortune Cookie and The Odd Couple and reunited years later to box office fortune with the Grumpy Old Men movies. This one? Not so much.
Father’s Day
Domestic Gross: $28 million
Ivan Reitman directing Robin Williams and Billy Crystal in a high-profile comedy? Sounds like a good recipe, but the product was mediocre at best and audiences didn’t turn out.
Excess Baggage
Domestic Gross: $14 million
Two summers earlier, Alicia Silverstone had broken out with Clueless. The summer of 1997 was a breakdown. In addition to appearing as Batgirl in the already discussed Batman and Robin, this action comedy with Benicio del Toro bombed big time.
Steel
Domestic Gross: $1.7 million
People may have wanted to watch Shaquille O’Neal on the basketball court, but they had zero interest in watching him as the title superhero in this disaster.
And that does it for now, folks, but I’ll be back soon recounting 2007!
We have now entered the second weekend of summer 2017 at the box office and there’s two high-profile releases opening wide. They are: Guy Ritchie directed retelling of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy Snatched.
You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
One things seems certain and it’s that neither of these newcomers will come close to dislodging Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 from a sophomore weekend on top (more on its opening below).
The real competition will indeed be for the runner-up spot. I expect a close race for the #2 spot, with Arthur managing to edge out Snatched.
The rest of the top five should be filled by spring holdovers The Fate of the Furious and The Boss Baby.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Predicted Gross: $64.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
Predicted Gross: $24.4 million
3. Snatched
Predicted Gross: $21.1 million
4. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)
Box Office Results (May 5-7)
The summer season got off to a solid start as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuted to $146.5 million. That’s good for the 17th largest domestic opening of all time. The Marvel/Disney sequel met, but did not exceed expectations, including my own. I had it pegged higher at $166.4M. Even though my estimate was nearly $20 million higher, this premiere still ensures more of Star-Lord and a growing Groot in the future.
Holdovers populated the rest of the top five as nothing else dared open wide against the Guardians. In second was The Fate of the Furious with $8.5 million (I said $7.7M) for an overall gross of $207M.
The Boss Baby was third with $5.9 million (a bit above my $4.8M prediction) for a $156M total.
How to Be a Latin Lover, despite a significant screen expansion, dropped pretty hard to fourth with $5.1 million (below my $6.9M forecast) for a $20M total.
Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top five with $5 million (I said $4.7M) to bring its haul to $487M.
There’s only one new release hitting theaters as May opens, but it’s a massive one! Yes, summer 2017 kicks off this weekend as Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As you can see, I’m predicting the sequel to 2014’s huge blockbuster will post the 9th highest domestic opening of all time. That means it would be the second largest premiere this year behind March’s Beauty and the Beast.
I am expecting Guardians to gross more than the rest of the top ten combined and then some. All holdovers will likely lose hefty percentages of their audience as attention turns to Star Lord and Baby Groot. Much more on what those pictures did this past weekend below…
With that, my top 5 projections for our first weekend of movie summer!
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Predicted Gross: $166.4 million
2. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)
3. How to Be a Latin Lover
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)
4. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (April 28-30)
There was a bit more excitement than expected in this last weekend of April as some newcomers posted results that exceeded expectations… and one that did not.
As expected, The Fate of the Furious was #1 for the third weekend with $19.9 million, on pace with my $20.2M prediction. It’s made $193M thus far.
Surprise #1 was the terrific opening of How to Be a Latin Lover at $12.2 million, nearly doubling my meager $6.3M projection. Surprise #3 was the $10.3 million debut for Indian action epic Buuhabali 2: The Conclusion. How much of a shocker was that for me? Well, I never even ended up doing a prediction post for it!
The Boss Baby was fourth with $9.3 million, in range with my $8.6M forecast for a $148M total.
Surprise #3 belongs to The Circle, the techno thriller with a cast including Emma Watson, Tom Hanks, and John Boyega. The pic came in at the lowest end of expectations with just $9 million for fifth (well below my $16.3M estimate). With a deadly Cinemascore D+ Cinemascore grade, look for The Circle to close fast at multiplexes.
Beauty and the Beast was sixth with $6.8 million (I said $6.5M) to bring its gross to $480M. It now stands as the ninth highest grossing picture ever.
Finally, Sleight‘s grosses were just that as it opened in 13th with $1.7 million (I was a little higher at $2.4M).
And that does it for now, folks! Welcome to Summer 2017 at the movies…
The summer of 2017 kicks off as it has numerous times before in recent seasons – with a major Disney/Marvel production expected to post gargantuan box office numbers. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 follows up the blockbuster that turned out to be the biggest hit of summer 2014.
James Gunn returns to direct, as does the superhero cast of Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, and the vocal work of Bradley Cooper and Vin Diesel (as Baby Groot this time around). Also back are Glenn Close and Michael Rooker. Joining the mix in the sequel are Tango (Sylvester Stallone) and Cash (Kurt Russell)!
There is little doubt that Vol. 2 will post impressive results and quite easily outdo what its predecessor opened at three summers ago. Flashback to 2014 and Guardians was actually considered a risk. Strong reviews and word-of-mouth propelled it to a $94 million premiere and $333 million overall domestic haul. Expectations for the opening here are much higher. $150 million seems to be the low bar. Critical reaction to the sequel has been mostly encouraging and it stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes, with most reviewers saying it doesn’t quite match the freshness of the original.
A better comparison to its potential could be last summer’s Captain America: Civil War, opened the 2016 season with $179 million or Iron Man 3, which started off summer 2013 with $174 million. I’m predicting Guardians won’t quite reach those numbers, but come close.
My Vol. 2 projection puts it at the 9th largest domestic opening of all time, in between Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. My estimate gives it the 5th highest debut in both the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the month of May and second biggest 2017 bow after March’s Beauty and the Beast.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 opening weekend prediction: $166.4 million
It’s the final weekend before the summer onslaught of high-profile wannabe blockbuster hits screens. Our final April weekend brings the Emma Watson/Tom Hanks thriller The Circle and rom com How to Be a Latin Lover. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, The Circle should be in for a second place showing behind the third weekend of The Fate of the Furious, which should manage to stay on top before Marvel’s Guardians slays all competitors when May hits.
As for Latin Lover, it certainly has the chance to over perform and could potentially nab the #3 spot. However, my estimate has it rounding out the top five with holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast above it.
There is another debut this weekend and that’s Sleight, the BlumHouse Tilt horror pic. I don’t have a theater count for it yet. Right now, I’ll predict $2.4 million though I could choose to revise once more information is available.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $20.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)
2. The Circle
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
3. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)
4. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 35%)
5. How to Be a Latin Lover
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (April 21-23)
In a weekend where six new titles rolled out wide (or semi-wide), there some surprises here and there. One item that wasn’t surprising: The Fate of the Furious easily remained #1 with $38.4 million, a bit under my $43.2M projection. The eighth pic in the franchise has taken in $163M in ten days.
The Boss Baby held in second with $12.7 million (above my $9.2M estimate) for $136M overall. Beauty and the Beast remained third with $9.6 million (above my $7.8M forecast) to bring its total to $470M. That puts it at #10 for all-time domestic earners and climbing.
Other holdovers held up better than my predictions. Going in Style was fourth with $4.9 million (I said $3.5M). It’s made $31M. Smurfs: The Lost Village was fifth at $4.8 million (I said $3.6M) and it’s earned $33M.
Yes, that means none of the newcomers cracked the top five. Disney’s nature doc Born in China was sixth with $4.7 million, in line with my $5.2M estimate. In seventh was the Katherine Heigl/Rosario Dawson thriller Unforgettable. It also made $4.7 million and that’s way below my generous $12.9M projection. I mistakenly felt a decent female audience might turn out for it. Not so.
Then there’s Gifted. I had it outside the top ten, but it expanded its theater count and posted $4.5 million for eighth. Its total is $10M.
The Promise opened in ninth with $4 million (I said $3.2M). The Christian Bale/Oscar Isaac Armenian genocide drama looks to be a big money loser for its studio.
The Lost City of Z was 10th as it expanded its theater count with $2.1 million (below my $3.7M prediction). Found footage horror flick Phoenix Forgotten opened dismally in 11th with $1.8 million, not matching my take of $3.4M.
Finally, Brie Larson action comedy Free Fire was DOA in 17th place with just $994k (I said $2.3M).
Next weekend brings the techno thriller TheCircle, based on a 2013 bestseller by Dave Eggers. The pic casts Emma Watson as an employee at a powerful Internet corporation where everything is not as it seems. There’s some other heavy hitters among the cast: Tom Hanks, John Boyega of the new StarWars trilogy, Patton Oswalt and Bill Paxton in his final film appearance.
The source material in which it’s based has its fans. It also doesn’t hurt that Watson is fresh off the mega blockbuster BeautyandtheBeast (and Hanks never hurts either). TheFateoftheFurious should still manage a three-peat in this final April weekend, but I have a feeling TheCircle has a better chance of over performing than underperforming.
I’ll predict a mid teens to high teens debut is likely.
TheCircle opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million
For my How to Be a Latin Lover prediction, click here:
It is one busy post Easter weekend at the box office as six films roll out in wide or semi release. They are: romantic thriller Unforgettable with Katherine Heigl and Rosario Dawson, DisneyNature production Born in China, Armenian Genocide drama The Promise with Christian Bale and Oscar Isaac, found footage horror pic Phoenix Forgotten, British action-comedy Free Fire, and period piece adventure The Lost City of Z with Charlie Hunnam and Robert Pattinson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Before we get to the newbies, one thing seems for certain: The Fate of the Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its near $100M opening over Easter (more on that below). I foresee a drop in the mid 50s for it.
I see Unforgettable having little troubleplacing highest among the debuts for a decent second place showing. Then it’s family holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast in third and fourth with Born in China rounding out the top five.
And here’s where it gets really interesting! I’m not expecting much out of Phoenix Forgotten or The Promise and have them opening in range with where Smurfs: The Lost Village and Going in Style should be at in their third weekends. I also believe The Lost City of Z will do fairly well on only 500 screens and actually have it in sixth. Bottom line: for the numbers 6-10, I have them separated by only half a million bucks.
Notice I didn’t mention Free Fire. That’s because I actually have it outside the top ten at $2.3M (which would probably put it 11th). That said, I’ve yet to screen a theater count for it and that could change the dynamic.
So… lots to chew on this weekend and here’s a projected top ten:
1. The Fate of the Furious
Predicted Gross: $43.2 million (representing a drop of 56%)
2. Unforgettable
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
3. The Boss Baby
Predicted Gross: $9.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)
4. Beauty and the Beast
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. Born in China
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
6. The Lost City of Z
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
7. Smurfs: The Lost Village
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)
8. Going in Style
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)
9. Phoenix Forgotten
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
10. The Promise
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (April 14-16)
The Fate of the Furious did manage to score the second highest April opening ever and the second highest debut of the franchise, though it did come in quite a bit under my expectations. Fate made $98.7 million, just topping the $97.3M achieved by Fast & Furious 6 (and well under the series pinnacle of $147.1M that Furious 7 did). While well below my $122.7 million projection, it’s still a solid opening that should leave the Fast brand in good order.
The Boss Baby dropped to second with $16 million (I said $15M) for a $116M tally with Beauty and the Beast in third at $13.7 million (I said $14.6M) for a $454M overall haul.
Smurfs: The Lost Village continued its ho-hum run in fourth with $6.7 million (I said $7.8M) in its sophomore frame for just a $24M total. Going in Style, also in weekend #2, rounded out the top five with $6.2 million (I went with $7.2M) for $23M overall.
Finally, Gifted expanded in theater count and was sixth with $3 million, under my $4.6M forecast.
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