February 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Slasher flick Heart Eyes and action comedy Love Hurts hope to achieve audience affection this weekend while competing with holdovers and a little football game on Sunday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Heart Eyes Box Office Prediction

Love Hurts Box Office Prediction

Sony’s Heart Eyes looks to fright fest fans and teens and, in this genre, there’s always the possibility of exceeding expectations. It might get to the teens, but I have it in the lower double digits for a runner-up showing.

Recent supporting category Oscar winners Ke Huy Quan and Ariana DeBose (and Super Bowl victor Marshawn Lynch) tackle Love Hurts. Universal would heart a start in double digits and especially teens though I suspect it could struggle to get there. My estimate puts it in third.

As for holdovers, DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man opened impressively (more on that below) and it should be top dog once again. The sophomore outing drop could be in the mid to high 40s.

Companion, despite a solid (at least for horror) B+ Cinemascore grade, may dip in the mid to high 40s as well with Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days in a close call for fifth.

Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

2. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Love Hurts

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

4. Companion

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mufasa: The Lion King

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. One of Them Days

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (January 31-February 2)

Dog Man lapped all competitors with room to spare as the animated tale (tail?) based on Dav Pilkey’s works scored $36 million, well ahead of my $25.4 million projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, look for this to eye nine digits stateside.

Companion‘s second place showing was in line with expectations at $9.3 million, a tad under my $10.6 million call. The well-reviewed mix of horror, sci-fi, and satire only had a reported $15 million price tag so this is a decent result.

Mufasa: The Lion King was third with $6.3 million (I said $6.5 million), bringing the Disney property’s seven-week haul to $229 million.

Buddy comedy One of Them Days was fourth, holding up well in weekend #3 with $5.8 million (on target with my $6 million prediction). The total is $34 million,

Finally, as estimated, Flight Risk with Mark Wahlberg lost altitude in its second go-round. Plummeting from first to fifth, it made $5.4 million (a 53% ease). That’s close to my $5.7 million take as its ten-day earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Fire Inside Box Office Prediction

Amazon MGM is hoping moviegoers choose to spend some time with The Fire Inside this Christmas. The true-life sports drama stars Ryan Destiny as boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields as she trains for the 2012 Summer Olympics with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Rachel Morrison directs with a script from Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, who currently has Mufasa: The Lion King in multiplexes.

Inside first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to some knockout reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Said to be a crowdpleaser, I’m a bit perplexed by the lack of marketing. Perhaps this will surprise, but I think its five-day holiday earnings ring up less than $5 million.

The Fire Inside opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Nosferatu prediction, click here:

Nosferatu Box Office Prediction

For my A Complete Unknown prediction, click here:

A Complete Unknown Box Office Prediction

For my Babygirl prediction, click here:

Babygirl Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Mufasa: The Lion King

30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.

And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.

Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.

Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Mufasa: The Lion King Box Office Prediction

Mufasa: The Lion King roars into theaters December 20th serving as a prequel and sequel to 2019’s live-action The Lion King. It was, of course, a remake of the 1994 Disney animated classic and it grossed a massive $1.6 billion worldwide. Barry Jenkins, the Oscar winning director of Moonlight, directs. The voiceover cast with several returning from five years ago includes Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, Anika None Rose, Blue Ivy Carter, and her mom Beyoncé Knowles-Carter.

In the summer of ’19, King turned out to be a phenomenon with a $191 million opening and eventual $543 million domestic haul. Despite the heavy cash, many critics were harsh though it did earn an A Cinemascore. I’m still not sure audiences are clamoring for the prequel/sequel.

Don’t get me wrong. Plenty of parents and their kiddos will turn up. I’m just not expecting anywhere near the figures of what we saw a half decade ago. The Christmas holiday typically means even tentpole titles will start out slower than what they might in other seasons. Mufasa also must contend with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which debuts directly against it and could be more front loaded.

I’m projecting the Lion premieres in second behind the Hedgehog with a low 50s gross and it’ll probably leg out solidly in the weeks to follow.

Mufasa: The Lion King opening weekend prediction: $51.3 million

For my Sonic the Hedgehog 3 prediction, click here:

Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Fire Inside

Once known as Flint Strong due to the protagonist’s Michigan hometown, the retitled The Fire Inside premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Scheduled for a Christmas Day domestic bow, Rachel Morrison (an Oscar nominated cinematographer for Mudbound) makes her directorial debut. Ryan Destiny stars as Olympic boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Barry Jenkins, the acclaimed maker of Best Picture winning Moonlight, wrote the script.

Reviews say the sports flick mostly lands its dramatic punches. The RT score is 91% with a 69 on Metacritic. Despite the pedigree, I doubt Amazon MGM enters the awards ring here. One potential exception is with Henry who was a bit of a surprise Supporting Actor hopeful for 2022’s Causeway. He would likely be an unexpected contender, but it’s a small possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Best Picture 2016: The Final Five

We have reached 2016 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-15, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

Best Picture 2014: The Final Five

Best Picture 2015: The Final Five

We know one thing for sure – Moonlight from Barry Jenkins is in. As you may recall, it had to wait a tad longer to win Best Picture when an envelope mishap caused Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway to wrongly proclaim La La Land as the voters choice.

As for the 8 other hopefuls (including La La), here’s my take on which half of them would have made the dance.

Arrival

Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi drama tied Moonlight for the second most nods at 8. In addition to BP, the director and adapted screenplay were nominated along with tech mentions in Sound Editing (where it won), Sound Mixing, Production Design, Cinematography, and Editing. On the flip side, star Amy Adams was omitted in Best Actress. It stands as one of the most surprising acting snubs of the past decade.