Oscar Predictions: Highest 2 Lowest

Spike Lee’s crime thriller Highest 2 Lowest has premiered at Cannes prior to A24’s theatrical release in August and Apple TV streaming bow in September. Updating Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low from 1963, Denzel Washington plays a music mogul caught up in a ransom plot. Costars include Ilfenesh Hadera, Jeffrey Wright, ASAP Rocky, and Ice Spice.

Critics are certainly higher than lower for the French unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94% with Metacritic at 77. According to reviews, it’s a successful genre exercise. That means, from an awards perspective, it might be a non-player like Spike and Denzel’s previous collaboration Inside Man from 2006 (this marks the fifth time they’ve teamed up).

However, I wouldn’t completely discount Denzel’s chances in Best Actor. If he could make the cut for 2017’s Roman J. Israel, Esq., he could do the same here and nab his 10th overall nom. 2017 was arguably a weak year in that category and we don’t know how the competition this time around will shake out. Mr. Washington likely came close to his 10th mention in supporting last year for Gladiator II. He might be in the arena once again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Deaf President Now!

Deaf President Now! is available for streaming this weekend as the documentary recounts a 1988 protest at Gallaudet University, the world’s sole college for Deaf people. The Apple TV product is co-directed by Nyle DiMarco, who gained fame as an activist for the community while winning reality shows America’s Next Top Model and Dancing with the Stars back to back. His copilot behind the camera is Davis Guggenheim, Oscar winner for 2006’s An Inconvenient Truth whose last effort was the acclaimed Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (also for Apple).

Now! is certified very fresh with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 79 on Metacritic. The inspirational civil rights tale could factor into the Documentary Feature race if the distributor gives it a strong campaign. If this makes the shortlist months down the road, a spot in the eventual quintet is certainly achievable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Spellbound

Spellbound is not a remake of the Alfred Hitchcock classic with Ingmar Bergman and Gregory Peck. It’s an animated musical fantasy from Vicky Jenson (who directed the first Best Animated Feature Oscar victor Shrek) that’s out on Netflix today. Rachel Zegler, John Lithgow, Jenifer Lewis, Titus Burgess, Nathan Lane, Javier Bardem, and Nicole Kidman lend their voices to the project.

This is the second project from Skydance Animation after 2022’s Luck. That feature (which premiered on AppleTV+) drew mixed reviews and attracted scant awards attention. With 62% on Rotten Tomatoes and 54 on Metacritic, the storyline should be the same for Spellbound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time: Number 47 – Jason Sudeikis

Before becoming a SAG and Golden Globe winner for his heralded role on Apple TV’s Ted Lasso, Jason Sudeikis was part of one of SNL’s finest ensembles in the show’s first half century of existence. He earns the 47 spot in my top 50 cast members.

Sudeikis memorably played Mitt Romney and Joe Biden while also channeling The Devil in Update bits and appearing alongside Kristin Wiig as one half of the A-Holes. Sudeikis was occasionally overshadowed by costars who will appear higher on this list, but he was a glue guy in a top SNL era. #46 will be up soon!

Jason Sudeikis

Years on the Show: 2005-2013

Oscar Predictions: Blitz

Steve McQueen’s World War II drama Blitz opened the London Film Festival today and it’s one of the final major awards puzzle pieces to screen. Opening in limited fashion on November 1st before an Apple TV streaming rollout on November 22nd, the cast includes Saoirse Ronan, young newcomer Elliot Heffernan, Harris Dickinson, Benjamin Clementine, Kathy Burke, Paul Weller, Stephen Graham, Erin Kellyman, and Leigh Gill.

I’ve had Blitz placed in either the 1 or 2 slot in Best Picture in my predictions over the past several months. It’s easy to understand why. In 2013, McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave was a Best Picture winner. Before Blitz, there was only one feature film in between with 2018’s Widows. Despite solid reviews, Widows was not an Academy player. Yet the genre of Blitz seems ripe for consideration.

Following its festival bow, the Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 94% with 76 on Metacritic. That’s just fine, but it’s not that simple. A deeper dive into the critical reaction tells me that Blitz will no longer be placed in the 1 or 2 position for BP. In fact, it will likely drop from the top 5 of possibilities to somewhere between 6-10. In other words, I don’t see it as a threat to win.

As for the cast, not much has changed. Ronan will be campaigned for in Supporting Actress and she is probably the only performer that could (and I suspect will) make the cut. If so, she stands an excellent shot at being a double nominee coupled with her lead work in The Outrun. Such nods would mark her fifth and sixth tries at gold behind Atonement, Brooklyn, Lady Bird, and Little Women. As for Heffernan, he could be a shoo-in for a Best Young Performer nom at the Critics Choice Awards.

Original Screenplay is also possible, but I don’t think it’s automatic. Tech recognitions in Production Design (which seems especially plausible), Costume Design, Cinematography, Original Score, Sound, and maybe Visual Effects are feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Wolfs Review

Despite their effortless chemistry, George Clooney and Brad Pitt have yet to find their winning vehicle. I know many of you are now saying what about Ocean’s Eleven?!? Or Thirteen?… though probably not that Jan Brady of a franchise entry Twelve. I found the whole trio a little disappointing actually. The finest Clooney/Pitt collaboration is easily Burn After Reading from the Coen Brothers. However, the duo share mere seconds onscreen together. They are violently hilarious ones.

Wolfs is not funny or action packed enough. It encounters chop simply attempting to coast on the charms of its headliners. They play roles that might only exist in the movies – fixers. Well at least there’s a lot more of them on the silver screen like hitmen. Clooney is known only as Margaret’s Man in the credits. Margaret (Amy Ryan) is running for district attorney when she picks up a much younger man known as Kid (Austin Abrams) at a hotel. Their planned one night stand folds when Kid collapses and is presumed dead. VIPs like Margaret get a special phone number to clean up these messes and Clooney is dispatched to fix it.

So is Pitt and he’s known as Pam’s Man. Pam (voiced by Frances McDormand) runs the hotel and Pitt is their in-house problem solver. Two men whose survival hinges on working solo is disrupted when they both report for duty. Margaret goes back to campaigning as Ryan’s participation is a glorified cameo. Kid, it turns out, is not DOA as the trio must deal with bricks of heroin, Albanian gangsters, safari themed hotel rooms and back problems.

Written and directed by Jon Watts (whose become best known for the three Tom Holland Spider-Man flicks), Wolfs is not afraid to point out that its hunky leads are getting up in years. We’ve certainly seen the aging criminal story before and this struggles to find any new angles.

There’s limited pleasures. The Kid flirts with being a delightfully bizarre character here and there. I did appreciate how you’re not sure for awhile whether he’s smarter than he lets on or truly as dumb as Clooney and Pitt suspect. Or for that matter, if he’s mortal. No one makes faces of befuddled bemusement better than Pitt.

The leading men, though, still haven’t made their Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid or The Sting no matter how hard Ocean’s and Wolfs try. Finally, there’s the matter of cinematic “fixers”. My favorite is Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction. He basically showed up to tell Samuel L. Jackson and John Travolta to clean up the car after the latter had accidentally blown Marvin’s head off. There was no real fixing needed and Quentin Tarantino seemed in on the joke. Clooney and Pitt’s rapport doesn’t need a fix, but Wolfs is ripe for plenty of improvement.

** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Wolfs

George Clooney and Brad Pitt bring their considerable star power to Wolfs which premiered out of competition in Venice. The action comedy receives a limited theatrical release on September 20th before it streams on Apple TV the following weekend. Jon Watts, after helming the last three Spider-Man titles for the MCU, directs with Amy Ryan, Austin Abrams, and Poorna Jagannathan among the supporting players.

Several critics are essentially giving this a pass for coasting well enough on the charisma of its leads. Other reviews are less charitable and it currently sports a 73% Rotten Tomatoes score. Clooney is a four-time acting nominee with a Supporting Actor victory for 2005’s Syriana. As for Pitt? Well, he’s a four-time acting nominee with a Supporting Actor victory for 2019’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. They have other nominations for their directing (Clooney) and producing work (both).

It would seem Wolfs was not made for the Academy’s consideration. Apple should get plenty of viewers to bite. My Oscar Predictions will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Instigators

The Instigators is receiving a limited theatrical run this weekend before it comes to Apple TV on August 9th. The caper flick reunites Matt Damon with his The Bourne Identity director Doug Liman with Casey Affleck (who cowrote the screenplay) co-headlining. Hong Chau, Paul Walter Hauser, Michael Stuhlbarg, Ving Rhames, Alfred Molina (pulling double duty this weekend with Harold and the Purple Crayon), Toby Jones, Jack Harlow, and Ron Perlman are included in the supporting cast.

Any hope of a Good Will Hunting like awards run seem to be dashed. A better comp might be the similarly themed The Town from Damon’s Hunting cowriter and Casey’s older bro Ben Affleck. It scored a 92% RT rating and ended up with an Oscar nom for Jeremy Renner in Supporting Actor.

Critics are not taken with The Instigators as evidenced by the 45% RT rating. It is safe to say it won’t be stealing any nominations from awards voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Fly Me to the Moon

Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum look to provide Fly Me to the Moon with some financial liftoff this weekend. The rom com is set during the 1960s space race with Greg Berlanti directing. Costars include Jim Rash, Anna Garcia, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson. Its box office prospects are shaky (I have it debuting to around $12 million) and reviews aren’t gushing.

Fly has a fair if not over the moon 70% Rotten Tomatoes score. Several critics are praising the star power of the headliners, particularly Johansson. The actress received her first and second Academy noms in 2019 for Marriage Story (lead Actress) and Jojo Rabbit (Supporting Actress). This will not be #3 and I don’t see Moon factoring in anywhere else. However, Johansson could contend in Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes depending on competition strength. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Fly Me to the Moon Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is banking on star power to land Fly Me to the Moon pleasing results when it debuts July 12th. Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum headline the 1960s set romantic dramedy with the Space Race as a backdrop. Nick Dillenburg, Anna Garcia, Jim Rash, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson are in the supporting cast with Love, Simon helmer Greg Berlanti behind the camera.

With a reported $100 million price tag, this a risky bet for its studio (Apple TV has streaming rights for a TBD date). This is counting on adult moviegoers to turn up for a summertime tale with no awards buzz. It is primarily relying on Johansson and Tatum to propel it and that’s asking a lot.

A best case scenario would put this near $20 million, but I think that might be wishful thinking. Low double digits or lower teens seems likelier.

Fly Me to the Moon opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million

For my Longlegs prediction, click here: