Blogger’s Update (07/19): I’ve increased my prediction from $127.8M to $160.8M
After a lengthy development process, the eagerly anticipated live-action Barbie seeks to pack movie houses on July 21st. Greta Gerwig, coming off two Best Picture nominees in a row with Lady Bird and Little Women, directs with Margot Robbie as the iconic Mattel creation and Ryan Gosling as Ken. The large supporting cast (some playing variations of the leading dolls) includes America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae, Rhea Perlman, Alexandra Shipp, Emma Mackey, Dua Lipa, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Simu Liu, Michael Cera, Ariana Greenblatt, and Will Ferrell. Once a vehicle for Amy Schumer and then Anne Hathaway, the reported $100 million production tapped Robbie four summers ago for the high profile project.
It goes without saying that the toy line dating back to 1959 has seen generations of consumers. Warner Bros is banking that crowds of all ages for the PG-13 rated pic will turn up. While it should certainly skew female, all demographics are expected to be represented.
Barbie has also been the benefactor of extra publicity due to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer debuting on the same day. Dubbed “Barbenheimer” all over social media, the premiere of two awards and blockbuster hopefuls only adds to the hoopla.
The breakout potential seems quite real and buzz has been growing steadily since the trailer and other forms of exposure. Initial estimates were in the $55-$70 million vicinity, rose to $80-$100 million, and are now looking to top $100 million. I’m inclined to say it manages nine digits with room to spare.
Eileen is director William Oldroyd’s sophomore feature after his well-reviewed 2016 rendering of Lady Macbeth with Florence Pugh. This psychological thriller/romance set in the 1960s is based on Ottessa Moshfegh’s 2015 novel and has premiered at Sundance. Thomasin McKenzie and Anne Hathaway headline with a supporting cast including Shea Whigham, Owen Teague, and Marin Ireland.
It is already clear this project will generate lots of attention. A number of early takes are raves with some claiming career best work from McKenzie and Hathaway. Ireland is also being singled out as a scene stealer. There’s said to be a twist in the proceedings that has divided critics and may do the same with audiences.
At Sundance, plenty of pics are looking for distribution and Eileen (with comparisons to Carol and Hitchcock) should easily be snatched up. If an awards campaign is in the cards, we’ll see if the trio of actresses can materialize in the convo or if Adapted Screenplay is feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Black Adam hopes for a three-peat before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever invades theaters next weekend. In order to do so, it’ll need to fend off Japan’s animated fantasy One Piece Film: Red. We also have the expansion of Oscar hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
One Piece is a bit of a mystery heading into the early November frame. I’ve settled on it getting to double digits, but it could certainly climb higher or fall under my projection. Keep an eye on whether my estimate changes throughout the weekend. A gross just north of $10 million should mean runner-up status with Black Adam in the low to possibly mid teens.
Oscar hopefuls like Banshees have faced a tough road and I suspect this will too. It could find itself in a fight with Prey for the Devil for the five spot as I anticipate that horror pic will suffer a large sophomore decline. I’m giving Prey the edge.
Holdovers Ticket to Paradise and Smile should place third and fourth. Finally, there’s also a wider rollout for Armageddon Time. The coming of age drama from director James Gray stars Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, and Anthony Hopkins. I have not done an individual post forecasting its expansion because I don’t believe it will clear $1 million.
This is how I see the top 6 playing out:
1 . Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. One Piece Film: Red
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Smile
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Prey for the Devil
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (October 28-30)
As expected, Dwayne Johnson easily ruled the charts as Black Adam took in $27.4 million in weekend #2. That is on pace with my $28.1 million take and the ten-day total is $110 million.
Ticket to Paradise held the two spot with a 40% decline in its sophomore outing at $9.8 million, in line with my $10.4 million prediction. The two-week tally is $33 million.
Prey for the Devil scared up a middling $7.1 million in third. That’s nothing special for the exorcism tale which drew only a C+ Cinemascore grade. It did, however, top my $5.9 million forecast.
Smile was fourth with $5.4 million and I was more generous with $6.5 million. The low budget fright fest has amassed $92 million.
Halloween Ends rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) for $60 million over three weeks.
Awards bait pics Till and Tár both underwhelmed in their wide premieres. The former was sixth with $2.7 million (not matching my $3.8 million projection). The latter was 10th with $1 million and I was more optimistic at $1.8 million. Respective totals are $3.5 million and $2.5 million.
The Supporting Actress derby is up next for my deep dives in the six major categories (Picture, Director, the 4 acting competitions). If you missed my current take on Supporting Actor, it’s here:
With two months left to go in the calendar year, it’s a good time to take stock in where we stand in 2022 with the various hopefuls. In 2019 and 2020 in late October, I correctly identified 3 of the 5 eventual nominees in Supporting Actress. Three years ago, that included eventual winner Laura Dern (Marriage Story) as well as Florence Pugh (Little Women) and Margot Robbie (Bombshell). I had Scarlett Johansson listed in Other Possibilities for Jojo Rabbit while not having Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell) yet on the radar. A year later, the trio of Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), Olivia Colman (The Father), and Amanda Seyfried (Mank) were already in my top five. Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) took the gold. Both she and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) were tagged in Other Possibilities.
The ratio dropped in 2021. I named 2 of the 5 women with Ariana DeBose in West Side Story (who won) and Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. 2 nominees – Judi Dench (Belfast) and Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) – were in Other Possibilities while Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) wasn’t in my listed ten.
We arrive at 2022 where Ms. Buckley is in the mix again. She appears in Women Talking alongside a large ensemble of additional actresses. This film gives us the highest probability of seeing double nominees from the same picture. It’s happened three times since 2010. Melissa Leo and Amy Adams were up for The Fighter that year with Leo emerging victorious. In 2011, Octavia Spencer took the statue for The Help with Jessica Chastain also making the cut. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz were both in the mix for 2018’s The Favourite.
With Women Talking, the Academy could dive a tad deeper with Judith Ivery and Sheila McCarthy (who are standouts). I suspect they’ll go with Buckley and Claire Foy (who was notably snubbed three years ago for First Man). I’ve had the latter listed in first place as she’s got a slightly meatier role.
That brings us to a key caveat in this race. A few weeks back, there was the unexpected announcement that Michelle Williams in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans would be campaigned for in lead actress. She could’ve easily been placed here. If the studio had done that, I would continue to have Williams at #1 and feel confident that she’d win her first Oscar. However, in the Best Actress competition, I only have her in fourth position as of my last forecast.
Back to performers who are eligible in this. As long as The Banshees of Inisherin performs well with voters (and it should), Kerry Condon should make the quintet and could be a threat to win. Truth be told, this seems like a wide open competition without Williams. I could see either Women Talking actress at the podium or Condon. Same goes for Hong Chau as Brendan Fraser’s caretaker in The Whale or Stephanie Hsu as the world altering daughter in Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film offers the possibility of an additional double nomination with Jamie Lee Curtis’s nearly unrecognizable role. As for The Whale, I think Chau is far more likely than costar Sadie Sink.
I’m not as sold on Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, which may not make a dent at the ceremony. The many negative reviews for The Son have me questioning the viability of Vanessa Kirby or Laura Dern. Cha Cha Real Smooth might be too small for Dakota Johnson to nab her first Academy mention. Thuso Mbedu in The Woman King seems like a stretch. There’s unseen performances that could rise up like Kate Winslet (Avatar: The Way of Water) or Jean Smart (Babylon). Of all those choices, only Smart is in the top ten.
Critics groups may be integral in weeding out the nominees. This is where we could see Nina Hoss (Tár) or Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) rise up. Or we could get a nominee from a forthcoming hit such as Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) or Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Over the past couple of months, all of my five nominees have come from films that I have in my 1o Best Picture hopefuls. That also holds true for Supporting Actor. And, frankly, that usually doesn’t happen. This is partly why I’m putting Carey Mulligan (She Said) in my projections after the studio announced she’ll vie for supporting instead of lead. I’ve got She Said barely missing a BP nod.
Bottom line: nothing is close to being settled in Supporting Actress and the talking about these women could change as we get closer to nomination time.
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)
5. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
My latest Final Five post brings us to 2012 and the Oscars that occurred nearly a decade ago. If you’re reading this series for the first time, this is where I whittle the 8-10 Best Picture nominees from every year since 2009 to five. As you may know, it was in 2009 that the Academy stopped listing a quintet of movies for the big prize and expanded it upwards. If you missed my write-ups about 2009, 2010, and 2011 – you can access them here:
As we do with each year, we start with the obvious. Ben Affleck’s Argo certainly would have made the cut since it won BP. 2012 was a strange year with the Academy’s voters. Argo emerged as the first film since 1989’s Driving Miss Daisy where the BP recipient’s director wasn’t nominated in that category. It’s happened twice since with 2018’s Green Book and last year’s CODA. I will admit that picking a fifth entry was challenging. The other 3 besides Argo seem pretty clear. Let’s get into it!
Amour
Michael Haneke’s French drama was the easy winner of Foreign Language Film and nabbed 3 other nods: Director, Actress (Emmanuelle Riva), and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, though an argument can certainly be made. I would venture that with only five, the narrative would’ve been that it had no trouble in the foreign race and that would be the reward.
Beasts of the Southern Wild
This micro-budgeted indie fantasy from Benh Zeitlin scored a surprise directing nod as well as Actress (Quvanzhane Wallis) and Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. It received the least amount of nominations of the nine nominees and won none of its four mentions. That said, it’s not entirely out of the question that it could have snuck in.
Django Unchained
Quentin Tarantino scored the biggest hit of his career with this Western which won Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor (Christoph Waltz). It also received nods for Cinematography and Sound Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, though an argument can be made yet again (especially with the Original Screenplay victory). That said, misses for directing and editing are indications that it might have just missed.
Les Miserables
With 8 nominations and wins for Supporting Actress (Anne Hathaway), Sound Mixing, and Makeup and Hairstyling, the adaptation of the famed musical was one of the biggest box office performers of the bunch.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No… and stop me if you’ve heard this before… but an argument could be made. Like Django, the directing and editing omissions prevent me from saying it is top five.
Life of Pi
Ang Lee’s visually striking adaptation of a bestseller tied with most nominations (11). Lee would win for his behind the camera work and it would pick up gold statues for Score, Cinematography, and Visual Effects. Unlike our last two contenders, it did receive an editing nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Furthermore, it was probably the runner-up for the win.
Lincoln
Steven Spielberg’s historical tale was the other movie to receive 11 nominations. The sole win was for Daniel Day-Lewis’s embodiment of the 16th POTUS in Best Actor.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Despite the 1 for 11 showing, the sheer number of nods strongly suggest its inclusion.
Silver Linings Playbook
With 8 nominations and Jennifer Lawrence taking Best Actress, this was the rare pic that scored nominations in all 4 acting derbies. Unlike Lawrence – Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, and Jacki Weaver didn’t win their respective races. This was also up for David O. Russell’s direction, Adapted Screenplay, and Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes – based on where else it landed attention.
Zero Dark Thirty
Kathryn Bigelow’s follow-up to her Oscar winning The Hurt Locker won Sound Editing. Jessica Chastain was up for Actress with Original Screenplay and Editing nods making it five overall. Bigelow’s snub in the directing race was unexpected.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but this is the one I’m most unsure about. One could easily make the case for Amour or Beasts or Django or Les Miserables. The fact that this had the screenplay nod and editing made me pick it.
So in my view your abbreviated 2012 BP lineup would be:
My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.
As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.
I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.
In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)
18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)
19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)
25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)
10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)
7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)
13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)
10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)
11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Armageddon Time
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Nope
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)
5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)
7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)
10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)
11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)
14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Poor Things
The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)
My updated weekly Oscar predictions goes from 6 categories to 8 with the inclusion of both screenplay derbies! It’s the first time we’ve seen some titles in my possibilities such as Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Nope, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, and Bones & All.
As for changes in the other races, I’m putting Rustin back in BP and that means Empire of Light drops from the top ten. Danielle Deadwyler (Till) returns to my top five in Actress over Cate Blanchett in Tar.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Empire of Light (PR: 10) (-1)
12. White Noise (PR: 20) (+8)
13. Broker (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Decision to Leave (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Tar (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Elvis (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Next Goal Wins (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Thirteen Lives (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Till (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Aftersun
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+1)
My first Oscar predictions in the six major categories for the month of June sees Top Gun: Maverick rising 3 spots to #17 in the BP derby. My ten predicted nominees remain the same as do the five estimated individuals in Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. There are changes in Actress with Cate Blanchett (Tar) in my five over Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and in Supporting Actress with Hong Chau (The Whale) being elevated over Vanessa Kirby in The Son. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 9)
9. The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 11) (E)
12. Broker (PR: 12) (E)
13. Poor Things (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Tar (PR: 24) (+8)
17. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 16) (-3)
20. White Noise (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Elvis (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Aftersun (PR: 25( +2)
24. Till (PR: 22) (-2)
25. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
As May comes to a close and the Cannes Film Festival wraps up, I’m giving you a fresh update in the six major Oscar categories!
In Best Picture, I’m elevating Empire of Light from Sam Mendes into the top ten and that takes Rustin out. The Daniels from Everything Everywhere All at Once vault into Director to the detriment of Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
Empire of Light also benefits in Best Actress with Olivia Colman in over Carey Mulligan from She Said. While Actor and Supporting Actress remain unchanged, there’s two alterations in Supporting Actor with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere…) and Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) in over John David Washington (Amsterdam) and Tom Hanks (Elvis).
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. She Said (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-3)
15. White Noise (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+5)
17. Elvis (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Poor Things (PR: 14) (-4)
19. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Armageddon Time (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Till (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Tar (PR: 17) (-7)
25. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Hirokazu Kore’eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 8) (-4)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7 (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd.
Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Margaret Qualley, Poor Things
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+4)
James Gray has been a favorite of the critical community when it comes to writer/directors, but that hasn’t translated to Academy attention. The sole nod for his seven previous pictures belongs to 2019’s Ad Astra and a Sound Mixing nomination.
His latest is Armageddon Time and it’s a Queens set autobiographical tale taking place in the early 1980s. The film has debuted at Cannes and Focus Features will almost certainly make an awards push for it. Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins, and newcomers Banks Repeta and Jaylin Webb headline the cast.
The coming-of-age drama is receiving its share of kudos with the embargo lifted. That praise is not universal as other reviewers and bloggers are calling it a disappointment.
There was some question as to whether Strong or Hopkins would be the most likely recipient of the studio’s Supporting Actor push. Based on early buzz, I’d bet on the latter with Hathaway in the mix for Supporting Actress. I wouldn’t look for either to make my predicted five when I update my list on my blog. Other possibilities include Best Original Screenplay or Darius Khondji’s cinematography. However, with the somewhat mixed reaction stemming from overseas, Armageddon may simply fizzle out as the busy time of the season heats up in a few months. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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