Even though it premiered at Sundance all the way back in January, Jockey is finally attempting to ride into Oscar contention. The drama from director Clint Bentley casts Clifton Collins, Jr. as an aging equestrian in the sunset of his career. After its festival bow, the pic received pleasing reviews to the tune of a 96% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
All the buzz, though its been fairly quiet for awhile, has been with Collins and a possible Best Actor nod. He’s never achieved Academy attention despite an acclaimed supporting turn in 2005’s Capote and other notable film and TV roles. Some critics certainly say he’s worthy of a nomination.
However, he looks to be a long shot. Sony Pictures Classics, which picked up distribution rights, is releasing it December 29th. The first trailer came out just today. The studio will need to mount a spirited campaign for Collins to make the final five. We can generally assume two spots are taken: Will Smith in King Richard and Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog. There’s plenty of other viable hopefuls. It doesn’t help Collins that two of them (Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick… Boom! and Leonardo DiCaprio in Don’t Look Up) have helped their cases in recent days. This is in addition to Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), and more.
Bottom line: Collins needs some precursor love to show up at the Oscars. If that doesn’t happen, I don’t see him placing. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
When I wrote my Oscar Predictions post for The Eyes of Tammy Faye back in September and talked about Jessica Chastain’s viability in Best Actress, I penned the following passage:
Bottom line: a couple of weeks back, I boldly declared that you could write Kristen Stewart’s Best Actress inclusion in pen. Here we go again for the second pronouncement… I think you can do the same with Chastain.
Two months later, I still feel the same about Kristen Stewart in Spencer. She remains the frontrunner for a nomination and a potential victory. And a solid argument can still be made that Chastain’s performance as Tammy Faye Bakker sits in the runner-up position for inclusion for the five actresses who will be up for consideration. That said, I’m not as declarative as I once was. Given a redo, I might say a sharpened pencil over a pen.
Why? The Best Actress race is stacked in 2021 and more realistic competitors continue to pop up. Just this week, there were three pictures screened that increased or helped solidify the chances for their leading ladies: Lady Gaga (House of Gucci), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), and Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza). That’s in addition to Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), and Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth). They’ve been in the mix since festival season early this autumn.
That’s eight performances thus far. We can add others to the already released fold: Jodie Comer (The Last Duel), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), and Tessa Thompson (Passing). 12. I can think of four more from the unscreened column: Sandra Bullock (The Unforgivable), Jennifer Lawrence (Don’t Look Up), Rooney Mara (Nightmare Alley) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). 16. I’m not really feeling a Bullock nod, but any of the others could bubble up.
Add to that the off chance that a surprise nominee could materialize of those I’ve basically written off: Halle Berry (Bruised), Marion Cotillard (Annette), Emilia Jones (CODA), or Charlotte Rampling (Benedetta).
20 possibilities (though some admittedly are far fetched). Still – there’s several realistic hopefuls and that’s reason enough to doubt anyone but Stewart making the eventual quintet.
Chastain faces other challenges for her third nomination (the previous two were supporting for 2011’s The Help and lead the following year in Zero Dark Thirty). Despite widespread acclaim for her acting, audiences completely tuned out to Tammy. It earned a tiny $2.4 million at the box office. Reviews for the pic itself were just so-so (66% on Rotten Tomatoes). I’ve heard comparisons made to Renee Zellweger’s victory in 2019 for Judy as far as poor box office and critical reaction. It’s not a totally unfair comp but Zellweger’s winning work garnered 82% on RT and made $24 million domestically.
When Tammy screened up north, the idea of Chastain and her costar Andrew Garfield (in Supporting Actor) both being up seemed feasible. I don’t feel Garfield has much of a shot now (though he definitely does in lead for Tick, Tick… Boom!).
Bottom line: I still have Chastain in my five, but with considerably less assuredness than before.
My Oscar predictions in all feature film categories are updated and there’s movement to discuss! There’s been a change in my ten Best Picture nominees for the first time in several weeks as House of Gucci has fallen and I’m putting Don’t Look Up in. The social media reaction to Gucci has resulted in it dropping for multiple categories. I still have Lady Gaga garnering an Actress nod (though she drops from 2nd to 4th) as well as Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling.
In other developments:
Andrew Garfield vaults from 6th to 3rd in Best Actor for Tick, Tick… Boom! That’s to the detriment of Joaquin Phoenix for C’Mon C’Mon
Two changes in the ever evolving Supporting Actor derby with Jason Isaacs (Mass) and Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) making the cut and displacing Jared Leto (Gucci) and Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) is on the outside looking in for Supporting Actress with Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) rising
Don’t Look Up also enters Original Screenplay with Mass falling out of the top five
You can read all the updates right here!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Dune (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+4)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Flee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 14) (+2)
13. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-5)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mass (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
Tessa Thompson, Passing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jude Hill, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Adam Driver, House of Gucci
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (E)
9. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Al Pacino, House of Gucci
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+3)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mass (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Spencer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A Hero (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Passing (PR: 9) (+3)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 4) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Summit of the Gods (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Who Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Charlotte (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Vivo
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Drive My Car (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-2)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Great Freedom (PR: 9) (E)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. President (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Procession (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Ascension
The Velvet Underground
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The French Dispatch (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
10. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Cruella (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+3)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (-2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. King Richard (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Belfast (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (PR: Not Ranked)
3. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-4)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Spencer (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Power of the Dog
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
7. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 3) (E)
4. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Free Guy (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Eternals (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Spider-Man: Far From Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Spencer
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, House of Gucci
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, Mass, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, C’Mon C’Mon, Drive My Car, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Passing, The Rescue, Respect, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
Out in limited release tomorrow before its Netflix premiere on November 19, Tick, Tick… Boom! marks the long awaited big screen directorial debut of Lin-Manuel Miranda. The Hamilton sensation already has the EGT (Emmy, Grammy, Tony) in the EGOT (the O is for Oscar obviously) and he has multiple projects in 2021 to contend for it.
Tick is an adaptation of Jonathan Larson’s own autobiographical Off Broadway musical and features Andrew Garfield portraying the late creator of Rent. Having screened at the AFI Fest, reviews are trickling in. Some of the critical reaction is not overly gushing, but there’s enough praise that it could contend in multiple races. First and foremost is Best Actor with Garfield and I’m feeling more confident that he could snag one of the five spots. If so, it would mark his second nod five years after Hacksaw Ridge. His chances in lead, in my view, are greater than in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Garfield’s inclusion is the only competition where I’m relatively confident. That said, the Academy could fall for Miranda’s first foray behind the camera and that could open up Picture and maybe even Supporting Actor (where Robin de Jesus is generating some solid ink). I don’t look for much chatter for remaining supporting cast which includes Alexandra Shipp, Vanessa Hudgens, Judith Light, and Bradley Whitford. I’m also skeptical Adapted Screenplay comes into the mix, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility.
Miranda’s strongest shot at his own nomination could come with another project: Disney’s upcoming animated Encanto in the Original Song derby. In the Heights, the reworking of his acclaimed play that faltered at the box office over the summer, has seen its prospects dim.
Bottom line: Garfield has likely played his way into Best Actor while attention elsewhere seems questionable. My Oscar Predictions posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Jessica Chastain is so fabulous in Michael Showalter’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye that it’s tempting to forgive how much of a standard biopic it really is. Under layers of foundation, eye shadow, and drawn on lips, the actress playing televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker is always fascinating to witness. The film’s foundation is shakier with an over reliance on montages and a frequent unwillingness to truly peel away the layers of its subjects.
We meet Tammy when she finds the Holy Spirit as a poor young girl in the late 1950s. Her cheerful attitude confounds her grounded in realism mother (Cherry Jones), who’s considered an outcast due to a divorce. By the mid 60s, our devoted Christian soldier meets Jim Bakker (Andrew Garfield) in college. He’s a different kind of aspiring pastor – not afraid to preach the gospel of fun and materialism. Tammy is his perfect match in building an eventual empire through the PTL Network (at one time the fourth most watched channel on TV).
Their union and the fidelity of their followers doesn’t always circle with the more square Jerry Falwell (Vincent D’Onofrio), who Jim looks up to but his wife eyes with caution. Speaking of fidelity, it comes into focus as the couple become more famous. Tammy’s attraction to her music producer (Mark Wystrach) is nearly requited while Jim’s own wandering eye is hinted at in different ways. Their relationship gets the most screen time in Abe Sylvia’s screenplay (based on a 2000 documentary of the same name). It’s at the expense of other areas of Tammy Faye’s life that are glossed over.
A key one is the script’s general resistance to delving into what caused the Bakkers fall from grace (dubbed Pearlygate for them and other clergy by the late 80s). Eyes definitely sees Tammy Faye as a sympathetic figure and in many respects she was. Her compassion for AIDS patients was at a period when that came with great risk to the business. The complicated alliance with Jim is presented as one of blind faith for Tammy. Garfield succeeds in making his character a multifaceted one. He’s neither portrayed as a greedy monster or a misunderstood prophet. The actor deserves the lion’s share of credit over the words written for him.
That certainly holds true for Chastain. From her squeaky Minnesota accent (she sounds like Betty Boop crossed with Marge from Fargo) to her ever present Diet Coke (it’s her only addiction until pills come into play), this could have been played for parody. Chastain is far too talented a performer for that. She alone, along with a few showdowns with her deep in debt hubby, makes Eyes highly watchable. However, it never genuinely gets behind the makeup with its conventional storytelling.
We come to Best Actor in my deep dive of the major Oscar races covering the four acting showdowns in addition to Picture and Director. If you missed the first two covering Supporting Actor and Actress, they’re here:
Looking at the past two years in my early November estimates in this competition, there’s a better track record than with the supporting categories. In 2019, with two months to go, I rightly had four of the five nominees pegged: winner Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) was mentioned in Other Possibilities. For the 2020 experience, that number was three – winner Anthony Hopkins in The Father, Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), and Gary Oldman (Mank). The other two were named as possibilities – Riz Ahmed for Sound of Metal and Minari‘s Steven Yeun.
In 2021, it appears that three hopefuls have probably punched their tickets. The conversation begins with Will Smith. He’s a two-time nominee – once 20 years ago as Ali and 15 years past in The Pursuit of Happyness. As King Richard, it may well be the Fresh Prince’s time to be crowned for the true life sports drama that is said to be a massive crowdpleaser.
When Smith lost for Ali, it was to Denzel Washington in Training Day. The two-time winner looks to be back in the mix with The Tragedy of Macbeth. While I’m feeling confident in his nomination, I don’t see Mr. Washington emerging victorious here.
The other probable player is Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, gunning for his second nod seven years after The Imitation Game. Several festival reviews are calling it career best work and I don’t see him sliding.
After that, there’s quite a few of performers vying for the remaining two spots. There’s a few in the “not yet seen” silo. That includes Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley. We are all waiting to see how big his supporting role is in Licorice Pizza. I’ve had Cooper listed #1 there for months. If he ends up falling shot in that one, he could rise with this.
Andrew Garfield’s performance in Tick, Tick… Boom! is a trendy selection. He’s also a possibility in supporting with The Eyes of Tammy Faye (though I’m skeptical he makes it through there).
We also have Leonardo DiCaprio for Don’t Look Up. I’m not as high on the film as some other prognosticators, but laudatory screenings could change that dynamic. There’s also Adam Driver for House of Gucci and Cooper Hoffman for the aforementioned Pizza. With all these gentlemen, time will tell and we won’t have to wait long.
Back to the performances we do know about. Nicolas Cage garnered some of the best notices of his career for Pig. He’ll have internet chatter on his side but I wouldn’t bet the farm on him making it. Speaking of web love, expect the same for Timothee Chalamet (Dune). I believe he’s less likely than Cage. Same goes for former MTV veejay Simon Rex in Red Rocket.
Belfast is the frontrunner for Best Picture and its quartet of supporting thespians (Caitriona Balfe, Judi Dench, Jamie Dornan, Ciaran Hinds) could all show up in their races. The film’s young lead Jude Hill is more of a long shot. Clifton Collins Jr. drew raves beginning at Sundance with Jockey. I would say Sony Pictures Classics needs to up their game with his campaign for him to enter this derby. There’s also a slight chance that Amir Jadidi could be a factor in A Hero (which could take International Feature Film).
For now, I’m sticking with two actors that I’ve had in my five for awhile. Peter Dinklage has gotten plenty of Emmy love for his Game of Thrones stretch and his musical and dramatic stylings in Cyrano could cause the Academy to take note.
Even though he won just two years back for Joker, Joaquin Phoenix could be up again for C’Mon C’Mon if none of the unseen candidates rise in the polls.
Bottom line: Smith (especially), Cumberbatch, and Washington are all relatively safe at press time. About a dozen others will vie for slots four and five. Here’s where I have it at this beginning of November time frame:
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3)
Starting on the blog today, I’m taking a deeper dive into the four acting derbies at the Oscars as well as Picture and Director. It begins with Supporting Actor.
If I could use a couple words to describe this particular race – “very open” immediately comes to mind. With just two months left in the calendar year, I would go as far to say that not I’m not 100% certain on any performer discussed below making the final five. That’s rare.
Before I delve into the many hopefuls, let’s take a look at where my projections were at in 2019 and 2020 during the same time frame. Two years ago, I had already correctly pegged four of the five eventual nominees: winner Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time Hollywood), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), and Al Pacino (The Irishman). The other contender was Joe Pesci (also for The Irishman) and I had him listed at #6 in Other Possibilities. In hindsight, Supporting Actor was well on its way to being established with two months remaining in 2019.
Not so much for 2020. Last year was more difficult than perhaps any before it in figuring out who’d make the cut (much of that uncertainty was due to COVID and the constantly shifting release schedule). On November 1, 2020 – my forecasted five contenders yielded just two of the eventual nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Leslie Odom, Jr. for One Night in Miami. I still had the winner (Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah) listed for the lead Actor competition. Both Lakeith Stanfield (Judas) and Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) were not yet mentioned in Other Possibilities.
With that context, we arrive in 2021. And I would say this year looks more like the previous one as opposed to 2019. There has been one constant since I began projecting the race back in the summer: Bradley Cooper for Licorice Pizza (known as Soggy Bottom just a couple of months ago). I’ve had him listed at #1 the whole way and it’s a prediction based mostly on gut since no one has seen the picture (that’ll change shortly). Cooper is a four-time acting nominee (Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, American Sniper, A Star is Born). He’s yet to take the gold. Pizza looks like it should be a juicy role for him. On the other hand, we do not yet known just how big (or small) his role is. When reviews come out, he could solidify himself as the frontrunner or drop out altogether. There’s also the possibility that one of the other supporting players (Sean Penn or Benny Safdie) could rise. For now, I’m still hangin’ with Mr. Cooper until the word-of-mouth tells me otherwise.
Shifting gears – here’s a fun fact. In three out of the last four years, we’ve seen two actors from the same movie recognized here. In 2017, it was Sam Rockwell (who won) and Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. For 2019 – you had Pacino and Pesci in The Irishman. Last year, it was the victorious Kaluuya and Stanfield for Judas.
Could that happen again? Absolutely and the best chance for that right now appears to be Belfast. A strong contender to win Best Picture, we could also see Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds punch their tickets here. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it happen. Dornan seems likelier to make it in, but Hinds is getting plenty of laudatory chatter as well.
There are other scenarios to make it four out of five years and some lie with pictures still not screened. Don’t Look Up has Jonah Hill, Rob Morgan, and Mark Rylance. Willem Dafoe and David Strathairn are viable for Nightmare Alley. And then there’s Jared Leto and Al Pacino in House of Gucci. The latest trailer features the latter more than the former. That disrupts the consensus that Leto has a better shot. I’m still going with Leto above Pacino, but when Gucci screens that dynamic may shift.
The double nominee situations don’t end there. Yet they both have actors that I believe have a significantly better chance than the other. For Mass, Jason Isaacs has been in my five while Reed Birney hasn’t made the top ten in some time. After The Power of the Dog was unveiled on the festival circuit, the narrative unexpectedly shifted to Kodi Smit-McPhee having a clearer path than Jesse Plemons. The Tragedy of Macbeth buzz solidified Corey Hawkins over Brendan Gleeson (though I’m skeptical either get in).
Now is a good time to point out that it’s been ten years since a Supporting Actor winner didn’t come from a Best Picture nominee (Christopher Plummer in Beginners). That’s why I find it a stretch that Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar), Idris Elba (The Harder They Fall), or Troy Kotsur (CODA) will be making trips to the podium. They could still get in, but their paths are tougher and they will all need heavy critics awards love to make the dance. There’s been some mentions for Jeffrey Wright in The French Dispatch, but (somewhat surprisingly) no Wes Anderson directed performance has been Academy nominated and I don’t see this being the first.
One actor where an exception could occur is Richard Jenkins in The Humans. I doubt it will land a Pic nod, but Jenkins is drawing raves for his work. Twice nominated before for The Visitor and The Shape of Water, I could see the veteran becoming a threat to win if Cooper falls.
Others worthy of mention include Jon Bernthal in King Richard. The attention could be so focused on Will Smith (who appears to be in the driver’s seat to take Actor) that his supporting cast fails to get in (that logic also applies to Supporting Actress hopeful Aunjanue Ellis). It’s also totally feasible that Richard is so popular with the Academy that it sweeps them all in. Andrew Garfield picked up solid notices for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. He might stand a better shot in lead for the upcoming and yet to be screened Tick, Tick… Boom! Timothy Spall for Spencer is doable, but Kristen Stewart is just as likely to be the sole nominee (and maybe the winner in Actress). The work of David Alvarez (West Side Story) and Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) has yet to be seen and is worth keeping an eye on.
So how does that all shake out? Truth be told, the five predicted performers listed below could look quite different a couple months from now. Here’s my best guesstimate for the moment:
Denis Villeneuve’s Dune hit box office expectations this past weekend and I’m more confident than ever that it makes the Best Picture ten. Belfast still maintains the #1 slot in Picture and I nearly put its maker Kenneth Branagh in the same spot in Director. Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) is hanging on by a thread as I also believe Villeneuve could be rewarded for his technical bravura behind the camera.
Per usual, I’ve made a change in the #5 rank in Actor – swapping out Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) for Joaquin Phoenix (C’Mon C’Mon). It was a good week for the upcoming Phoenix comedic drama as it reenters Original Screenplay over Spencer.
You can read all the latest activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Dune (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-2)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Mass (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Flee (PR: 14) (+1)
14. CODA (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out: Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rooney Mara, Nightmare Alley (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Martha Plimpton, Mass
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 9) (E)
10. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Hero (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. House of Gucci (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca (PR: 2) (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Summit of the Gods (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Vivo (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (+2)
5. Titane (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Great Freedom (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Memoria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Attica (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ascension (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The First Wave (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Ailey
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Belfast (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. The French Dispatch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
C’Mon C’Mon
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cruella (PR: 3) (+1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (+1)
5. West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (+1)
8. King Richard (PR: 7) (-1)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 2) (E)
3. Spencer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cyrano
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. King Richard (PR: 10) (-2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Beyond the Shore” from CODA
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Cyrano (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Spencer (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Power of the Dog (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. Belfast (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Last Duel (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Don’t Look Up
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Eternals (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Green Knight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Suicide Squad (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Finch
This adds up to these pictures nabbing the following numbers in terms of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
8 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
5 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, Spencer, The Tragedy of Macbeth, West Side Story
3 Nominations
Flee, The French Dispatch, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The Humans, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Summer of Soul, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
We actually had two weeks in a row of my Best Actor predictions staying the same after the five spot seemed to be constantly shifting. Not anymore as Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!) makes his first appearance in the predicted hopefuls at the expense of Joaquin Phoenix in C’Mon C’Mon. That films also drops out of Original Screenplay in favor of Spencer.
The biggest change is in International Feature Film as France somewhat surprisingly picked Julia Ducournau’s Titane as their selection. That drops Happening from the race and vaults Titane to the five. I’m also putting in Drive My Car over The Hand of God.
A note – the 10 Best Picture nominees has stayed steady as of late. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that a Sundance selection from early this year (Mass, Flee, or CODA) will end up making the cut. I just can’t decide what to take out yet. We will know soon whether Nightmare Alley, West Side Story, Licorice Pizza, or House of Gucci (the unscreened titles) are vulnerable.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. King Richard (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-2)
7. West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 8) (E)
9. Spencer (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Mass (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Flee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. CODA (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Ducournau, Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Parallel Mothers (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Humans (PR: 4) (+1)
4. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Dune (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tender Bar
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Luca (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 6) (E)
7. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Vivo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 9) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flee (PR: 3) (E)
4. Titane (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Drive My Car (PR: 5) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hand of God(PR: 5) (-1)
7. I’m Your Man (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 8) (E)
9. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Memoria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Happening
The Good Boss
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Attica (PR: 4) (+1)
4. President (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The First Wave (PR: 10) (+4)
7. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ailey (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Julia
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Dune (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Belfast (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (-1)
10. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The French Dispatch
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Spencer (PR: 2) (+1)
2. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cruella (PR: 1) (-2)
4. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The French Dispatch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cyrano (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (+1)
4. West Side Story (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. King Richard (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Spencer (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Cruella (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Suicide Squad (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
West Side Story
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Belfast (PR: 7) (E)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 9) (E)
10. King Richard (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 7) (E)
8. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 6) (-2)
9. “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Beyond the Shore” from CODA (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up
“Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. West Side Story (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Spencer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cyrano (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Power of the Dog (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Belfast (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Licorice Pizza (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Last Duel
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
King Richard
Cyrano
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Eternals (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 6) (E)
7. Free Guy (PR: 7) (E)
8. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Suicide Squad (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Finch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jungle Cruise
And that equates to the following number of nominations for these films:
9 Nominations
Belfast, Dune
8 Nominations
Nightmare Alley
7 Nominations
The Power of the Dog, Spencer
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, West Side Story
5 Nominations
King Richard, Licorice Pizza
4 Nominations
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Don’t Look Up, Driver My Car, Eternals, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Hero, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, President, The Rescue, Respect, Summer of Soul, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Titane, The Worst Person in the World
It is a week of fairly minor movement in the major categories for my Oscar predictions. Even the five spot in Best Actor (which seems to change each week) remained intact.
There is a switch in Actress with Jennifer Hudson (Respect) back in over Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth).
The biggest happenings occurred in International Feature Film as nations are continuing to announce their submissions or shortlists in that race. We learned that Spain has gone with The Good Boss instead of Parallel Mothers (a surprise) and that France did not shortlist Petite Maman (which I had in the 5 slot). It’s out in favor of Happening.
You can read all the activity below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune (PR: 5) (E)
6. King Richard (PR: 6) (E)
7. West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spencer (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Don’t Look Up (PR: 11) (E)
12. Mass (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Flee (PR: 12) (-1)
14. CODA (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A Hero
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. Paul Thoms Anderson, Licorice Pizza (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pablo Larrain, Spencer (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 2) (E)
3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel (PR: 8) (E)
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Will Smith, King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (E)
4. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (PR: 4) (E)
5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom! (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, House of Gucci (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nicolas Cage, Pig (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ann Dowd, Mass (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judi Dench, Belfast (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Marlee Matlin, CODA (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ruth Negga, Passing (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Martha Plimpton, Mass (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Hunter, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Troy Kotsur, CODA (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Garfield, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jon Bernthal, King Richard
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Belfast (PR: 1) (E)
2. Licorice Pizza (PR: 2) (E)
3. King Richard (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mass (PR: 4) (E)
5. C’Mon C’Mon (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Hero (PR: 8) (E)
9. Parallel Mothers (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Hand of God
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Power of the Dog (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (E)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Humans (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Daughter (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune (PR: 8) (+1)
8. West Side Story (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Passing (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Tender Bar (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Flee (PR: 1) (E)
2. Encanto (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Luca (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (PR: 4 (E)
5. Belle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Raya and the Last Dragon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Vivo (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Where Is Anne Frank (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Charlotte
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. A Hero (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Worst Person in the World (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Flee (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Happening (PR: 7) (+3)
5. The Hand of God (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drive My Car (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Compartment No. 6 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. 7 Prisoners (PR: 10) (+2)
9. I’m Your Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Good Boss (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Petite Maman
Parallel Mothers
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Rescue (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flee (PR: 2) (E)
3. Summer of Soul (PR: 3) (E)
4. Attica (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Lost Leonardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. President (PR: 6) (E)
7. Becoming Cousteau (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Julia (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Velvet Underground (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The First Wave (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Nightmare Alley (PR: 3) (E)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Power of the Dog (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. West Side Story (PR: 6) (E)
7. Spencer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Licorice Pizza (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The French Dispatch (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
No Time to Die
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cruella (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Spencer (PR: 1) (-1)
3. House of Gucci (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune (PR: 4) (E)
5. West Side Story (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. The French Dispatch (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Cyrano (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Belfast (PR: 3) (+1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nightmare Alley (PR: 2) (-2)
5. King Richard (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Licorice Pizza (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Don’t Look Up (PR: 8) (E)
9. House of Gucci (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Spencer (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cruella (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Eyes of Tammy Faye (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Green Knight (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Cyrano (PR: Not Ranked)
10. West Side Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. Spencer (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Power of the Dog (PR: 3) (E)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nightmare Alley (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Belfast (PR: 9) (+2)
8. King Richard (PR: 8) (E)
9. Licorice Pizza (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Luca
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Be Alive” from King Richard (PR: 1) (E)
2. “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Colombia, Mi Encanto” from Encanto (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Down to Joy” from Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Here I Am” from Respect (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “So May We Start” from Annette (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Believe” from The Rescue (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “Don’t Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Every Letter” from Cyrano (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“At the Automat” from The Automat
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Nightmare Alley (PR: 1) (-1)
3. West Side Story (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The French Dispatch (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Cyrano (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spencer (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Belfast (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Power of the Dog (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Last Duel (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Licorice Pizza
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. West Side Story (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Time to Die (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Belfast (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Tragedy of Macbeth (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nightmare Alley (PR: 6) (E)
7. Don’t Look Up (PR: Not Ranked)
8. A Quiet Place Part II (PR: 8) (E)
9. King Richard (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Cyrano (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Matrix Resurrections
Eternals
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Matrix Resurrections (PR: 2) (E)
3. Eternals (PR: 3) (E)
4. Godzilla vs. Kong (PR: 4) (E)
5. Don’t Look Up (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Free Guy (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Suicide Squad (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Spider-Man: No Way Home (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jungle Cruise (PR: 10) (E)
And that equates to the following breakdown in terms of nominations for the pictures:
10 Nominations
Dune
9 Nominations
Belfast
7 Nominations
Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
6 Nominations
House of Gucci, King Richard, West Side Story
5 Nominations
Spencer
4 Nominations
Licorice Pizza, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 Nominations
Flee, Mass
2 Nominations
C’Mon C’Mon, Cruella, Cyrano, Encanto, The French Dispatch, The Humans, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, Respect
1 Nomination
Attica, Belle, Eternals, Don’t Look Up, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Godzilla vs. Kong, The Hand of God, Happening, A Hero, The Lost Leonardo, Luca, The Matrix Resurrections, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Rescue, The Suicide Squad, Summer of Soul, The Worst Person in the World
