Tag: Ana de Armas

80th Golden Globe Awards Winner Predictions

After controversies kept the 79th ceremony off of the air in 2021, the 80th Golden Golden Awards is set to air on NBC Tuesday night with Jerrod Carmichael hosting. When it comes down to winners for their contribution to film, we can safely bet on one. Eddie Murphy will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award for his four decades of work onscreen. We can probably safely bet on more than just Eddie (Colin Farrell comes to mind).

Most categories are tougher to project. There are a number of races where I don’t feel confident with my arrived at winner. Quite frankly, if I go 7/14 this year, I’ll be content.

For each category, I’ll give you my pick and my runner-up. Unlike the Oscars, you won’t get detailed analysis though I will say here’s some of the categories that are tough:

Best Motion Picture (Drama) is a four-way race between everything not named Tár while Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) is a genuine two-way competition between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once.

The Fabelmans might be fading with the Academy and that could hinder Spielberg’s chance at Director. The legendary filmmaker was very notably snubbed from the sixteen shortlist possibilities at BAFTA. However, that happened after voting had closed with HFPA. I still give him the slight edge with the Globes, but watch out for the Daniels or Baz Luhrmann.

In the lead acting races, three are easy to pick. Actor in a Drama is not as I think it’s a coin flip between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. My selection comes down to what I chose for Best Picture.

I don’t think Carey Mulligan takes Supporting Actress for She Said. The other four are all viable. While Kerry Condon might be the soft favorite for Oscar, I could see the HFPA going with a more famous performer with a celebrated body of work. Whether that’s Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis is an excellent question.

RRR could take Non-English Language Film and Song though the runners-up are both strong spoilers. Women Talking, The Fabelmans, and Babylon are all totally feasible for Score.

All right – enough talk! Time to (yikes) choose…

BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST DIRECTOR

The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár

Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis

Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale

BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

The Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Babylon

BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

The Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s say Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking

Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM

The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

Predicted Winner: RRR

Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

Predicted Winner: Women Talking

Runner-Up: The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

The Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick

That equates to these movies achieving these numbers in terms of wins:

3 Wins

Everything Everywhere All at Once

2 Wins

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, RRR

1 Win

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking

I’ll have a recap up Tuesday night with analysis!

All Quiet Makes Noise at the BAFTA Shortlists

Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.

It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).

Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.

Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.

Best Film

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.

Outstanding British Film

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Blue Jean

Brian and Charles

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Lady Chatterley’s Lover

Living

The Lost King

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

See How They Run

The Swimmers

The Wonder

Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Aftersun

Blue Jean

Donna

Electric Malady

Emily

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Nothing Compares

Rebellion

See How They Run

Wayfinder

This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.

Film Not in the English Language

All Quiet on the Western Front

Argentina, 1985

Bardo

Close

Corsage

Decision to Leave

EO

Holy Spider

The Quiet Girl

RRR

While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.

Documentary

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

A Bunch of Amateurs

Fire of Love

The Ghost of Richard Harris

Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song

Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues

McEnroe

Moonage Daydream

Navalny

Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.

Animated Film

The Amazing Maurice

The Bad Guys

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Lightyear

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Turning Red

4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.

Director

Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Chinonye Chukwu, Till

Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Alice Diop, Saint Omer

Sara Dosa, Fire of Love

Todd Field, Tár

Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick

Marie Kreutzer, Corsage

Baz Luhrmann, Elvis

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

Maria Schrader, She Said

Charlotte Wells, Aftersun

BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.

Leading Actress

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Cate Blanchett, Tár

Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse

Viola Davis, The Woman King

Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.

Leading Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis

Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Daniel Kaluuya, Nope

Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front

Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).

Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau, The Whale

Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

Lashana Lynch, The Woman King

Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Aimee Lou Wood, Living

Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.

Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tom Hanks, Elvis

Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brad Pitt, Babylon

Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light

Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.

Original Screenplay

Aftersun

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

The Menu

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.

Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Living

The Quiet Girl

She Said

Top Gun: Maverick

The Whale

Women Talking

The Wonder

This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?

***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).

Casting

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Living

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

Cinematography

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Athena

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Costume Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Corsage

Elvis

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

Editing

Aftersun

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Decision to Leave

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Moonage Daydream

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Make Up & Hair

All Quiet on the Western Front

Amsterdam

Babylon

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Blonde

Elvis

Emancipation

Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical

The Whale

Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Women Talking

The Wonder

Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Batman

Elvis

Empire of Light

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Special Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Jurassic World: Dominion

Top Gun: Maverick

Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

The Batman

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Tár

Thirteen Lives

Top Gun: Maverick

Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!

2022 Oscar Predictions: January 2nd Edition

My first Oscar predictions for this new year (coming 22 days prior to nomination morning) comes with a change in Best Picture and other major races.

While I still believe that Babylon could make the BP ten despite mixed reviews and poor word-of-mouth, I have dropped it in favor of Triangle of Sadness.

In Best Director, James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) is in the five to the detriment of Women Talking‘s Sarah Polley.

While Best Actress remains intact, Brendan Fraser is back at #1 for The Whale over Austin Butler as Elvis. This is really semantics. I believe Fraser, Butler, and Colin Farrell are basically 1a, 1b, and 1c at this juncture. It may take upcoming precursors to make it clearer. There’s another shift as Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) gets the five spot over Hugh Jackman for The Son. I almost went with Aftersun‘s Paul Mescal.

In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy returns over her Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley. This category is still the trickiest acting derby to peg.

We also have 4 new number ones elsewhere. In Documentary Feature, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed vaults again to first. Elvis shimmies to the top in Costume Design while dropping to second in Makeup and Hairstyling with The Whale back at 1. The Fabelmans tops Original Score.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 7) (+2)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elvis (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 13) (+4)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Babylon (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Whale (PR: 11) (-1)

13. RRR (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Damien Chazelle, Babylon

S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Diego Calva, Babylon

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Menu (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: 10) (E)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Whale (PR: 4) (+1)

4. She Said (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (+1)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 2) (E)

3. Turning Red (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 5) (+1)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 6 (E)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (E)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Inu-Oh (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 9) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bardo (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Close (PR: 3) (-3)

7. EO (PR: 7) (E)

8. Holy Spider (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Joyland (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Quiet Girl (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Navalny (PR: 1) (-1)

3. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fire of Love (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Descendant (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bad Axe (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Janes (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Retrograde (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (E)

8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Corsage (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elvis (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Emancipation (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amsterdam (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: 9) (E)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Women Talking (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (E)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Nothing is Lost (You Give My Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Batman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Moonage Daydream (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Nope (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: 9) (E)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these films achieving these numbers in terms of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick

6 Nominations

Babylon

5 Nominations

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Tár, Women Talking

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

Living

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Bardo, Decision to Leave, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Territory, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 26th Edition

My last Oscar Predictions for this calendar year comes with no changes in Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, or the screenplay competitions. Yet not all is quiet. I’m finally giving Netflix a BP entrant, but it’s not Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (though I considered it). All Quiet on the Western Front is in the 10 and that knocks out Triangle of Sadness.

Let’s talk Babylon. I came very close to dropping it from my BP list after its dismal box office performance and a C+ Cinemascore grade. It’s clinging to the race in 10th. I almost replaced it with The Whale (which has also received plenty of mixed reaction). I have a gut feeling that one of them still makes the cut and I’m leaning toward the former at the moment.

In Supporting Actress, Claire Foy’s work in Women Talking is out in favor of costar Jessie Buckley. That would mark her second nomination in as many years.

There’s new #1s in International Feature Film with All Quiet displacing Decision to Leave and Documentary Feature with Navalny leaping over All That Breathes.

And, of course, the shortlists released Wednesday are reflected in various categories below. I’ll have my first estimates in calendar year 2023 up next weekend as we inch closer to nomination morning!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Tár (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Babylon (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. The Whale (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 12) (E)

13. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (-3)

14. RRR (PR: 11) (-3)

15. The Woman King (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

She Said

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: ) (-2)

10. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (E)

9. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 7) (E)

8. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Menu (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elvis

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. She Said (PR: 2) (E)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Son

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)

4. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wendell and Wild (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Strange World (PR: 8) (E)

9. Lightyear (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Inu-Oh (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Sea Beast

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1 . All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 6) (E)

7. EO (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Joyland (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Quiet Girl (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Klondike

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Navalny (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All That Breathes (PR: 1) (-1)

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fire of Love (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Descendant (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Janes (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Retrograde (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bad Axe (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Good Night Oppy

Sr.

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Babylon (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bardo (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Corsage (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Elvis (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tár

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Crimes of the Future (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Woman King

X

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

The Batman

White Noise

Tár

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Woman King

Empire of Light

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (+3)

5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Moonage Daydream (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope

RRR

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Batman (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Nope (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jurassic World: Dominion (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

RRR

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Good Night Oppy

That equates to these movies garnering these numbers of nods:

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Babylon, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

6 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Women Talking

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

The Batman, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, The Whale

2 Nominations

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Navalny, She Said, My Father’s Dragon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, RRR, Saint Omer, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: December 18th Edition

It has been two weeks since I updated my Oscar predictions and a lot has transpired in those 14 days. We’ve had the National Board of Review and American Film Institute release their best of lists while the Golden Globes and Critics Choice voters unveiled their nominees.

There is a change in BP in the 10th spot. Triangle of Sadness is back in as I’ve taken out The Whale. The bad news for that pic continues as I’ve demoted Brendan Fraser from 1st to 3rd in Actor. Make no mistake – I do believe he can still win. However, the last Best Actor victor whose movie wasn’t nominated was 13 years ago with Jeff Bridges from Crazy Heart. That stat puts Austin Butler and Colin Farrell in the 1-2 spots as I do have their flicks in BP.

The various precursors have caused major movement in the wildly unpredictable Supporting Actress field. Claire Foy (Women Talking) missed the Globes and Critics Choice. She drops from 1st to 4th while Kerry Condon (who made both precursors) is now in 1st. Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are in the quintet with Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) and Hong Chau (The Whale again) falling out.

While Director and Actress have the same five, there’s a shift in Supporting Actor as Judd Hirsch joins his Fabelmans costar Paul Dano with Women Talking‘s Ben Whishaw on the outside looking in.

I would also note that RRR has gone from unranked status to 11th (knocking right on the door for BP).

We also have new #1’s in Documentary, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Score. Scroll below to track all the movement!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tár (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Elvis (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

11. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Whale (PR: 8) (-5)

14. She Said (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Decision to Leave

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. S.S. Rajamouli, RRR (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rooney Mara, Women Talking

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 9) (E)

10. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Nina Hoss, Tár

Keke Palmer, Nope

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tár (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Aftersun (PR: 6) (E)

7. Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Menu (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. She Said (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Whale (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bones and All

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 3) (E)

4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (PR: 6) (+2)

5. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wendell and Wild (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Bad Guys (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Strange World (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sea Beast (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 1) (E)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 4) (-3)

8. EO (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Joyland (PR: 9) (E)

10. Klondike (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Alcarras

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All That Breathes (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Navalany (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (+2)

4. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Descendant (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Good Night Oppy (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Territory (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sr. (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Retrograde (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 1) (-2)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Empire of Light (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Living (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Women Talking

Three Thousand Years of Longing

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elvis (PR: 4) (E)

5. Babylon (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tár (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Elvis (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Batman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 8) (+1)

8. X (PR: -1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Batman (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)

9. White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Living

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 7) (+3)

5. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 9) (+3)

7. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (-3)

9. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” from Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (E)

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (E)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Woman King (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 6) (+3)

4. The Batman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 7) (+1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 10) (+1)

10. RRR (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. RRR (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Nope (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies hitting these numbers in terms of nominations:

10 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin

7 Nominations

Elvis

6 Nominations

Top Gun: Maverick

5 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Women Talking

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, The Whale

2 Nominations

The Batman, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, RRR

1 Nomination

All Quiet on the Western Front, All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Empire of Light, Fire of Love, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, My Father’s Dragon, Navalny, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Turning Red, The Woman King

2022 Golden Globes Nominations Reaction

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after a controversial couple of years which resulted in no aired telecast for the last ceremony, is moving forward with Jerrod Carmichael hosting the show on NBC in a month. The nominations for the 14 cinematic races were unveiled this morning.

I went 54 for 70 on my picks – an improvement over my previous 2021 performance of 49/70. The big winner: Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Its 8 nods led all pictures and landed mentions everywhere it was expected to.

On the flip side, it was a disappointing day for Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s expected Oscar contender managed two nods (Screenplay and Score) and missed out on several races where it was thought to be viable.

Let’s take the competitions one by one with my thoughts, shall we?

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick

How I Did: 4/5

Per above, the surprise here is Women Talking not making the cut. I had it in instead of Avatar (which is proving itself to be a highly likely hopeful for Oscar’s BP derby). While The Fabelmans could be considered a soft frontrunner, I would say everything but Tár has a shot to win.

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness

How I Did: 4/5

I went with The Menu over Triangle but the latter’s inclusion was not unexpected. This is almost certainly a battle between Banshees and Everything.

Best Director

Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)

How I Did: 4/5

Like in Best Drama, I went with Women Talking and its maker Sarah Polley instead of James Cameron. Also like that race, Spielberg might be favored but the others could upset the legend.

Best Actress (Drama)

Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

How I Did: 4/5

Danielle Deadwyler (Till) failing to make the quintet is unexpected as is de Armas’s nod in the Marilyn Monroe biopic (which garnered plenty of poor reviews). You’re going to want to bet on Blanchett in this one.

Best Actor (Drama)

Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)

How I Did: 3/5

Jackman and Pope in over my selections of Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Mr. Cruise whiffing is noticeable. Perhaps the HFPA is still salty about him giving back his Globes during the height of their controversies. Elvis is the only picture in this group that received more than 1 nomination and Butler could certainly emerge victorious. So could Fraser.

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywher All at Once)

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This went as anticipated and should continue that way with Yeoh taking the trophy in January.

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)

How I Did: 4/5

I went with Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) instead of Driver. It doesn’t matter much who the other four gentlemen are. This is Farrell’s to lose.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)

How I Did: 2/5 (ouch)

Supporting Actress has been a head scratcher all year as I’ve done Oscar projections. That proved true today with my poor performance. I went with Hong Chau (The Whale), Claire Foy (Women Talking), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) instead of Bassett, de Leon, and Mulligan. I’d say any of these contestants could win in this wide open field.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

How I Did: 3/5

I had Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Tom Hanks (yet again for Elvis), but Koeghan and Redmayne made it. Quan is probably out front but I wouldn’t rule Gleeson out.

Best Screenplay

Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

Finally we get something for Women Talking. Yet this race (like Musical/Comedy) is probably either Banshees or Everything.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red

How I Did: 4/5

Inu-Oh is the surprise (I said The Bad Guys instead). Pinocchio is favored but I wouldn’t discount Marcel (which is picking up critics prizes).

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR

How I Did: 4/5

This could be a fascinating one. I don’t see Argentina or Close winning (which I left out for Bardo). The other 3 could.

Best Original Score

Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking

How I Did: 4/5

This is where I should’ve left Avatar out as Banshees got in instead. This could be a close one and I’m not ready to pick a leader.

Best Original Song

Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

How I Did: 4/5

Pop superstar Billie Eilish and “Nobody Like U” was left off for pop superstar Taylor Swift and “Carolina”. Don’t be shocked if this comes down to pop superstars Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand” and Rihanna for “Lift Me Up”.

That means the following features nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:

8 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

6 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

5 Nominations

Babylon, The Fabelmans

3 Nominations

Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár

2 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Menu, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking

1 Nomination

All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Close, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Good Nurse, The Inspection, Inu-Oh, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, She Said, The Son, Turning Red, The Whale, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Best Actress Race

We have reached Best Actress in my deep dives of the major Oscar races. If you didn’t catch my takes on the supporting derbies and lead actor, you can access them here:

2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Best Actor Race
2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actress Race
2022 Oscar Predictions: The State of the Supporting Actor Race

Before we get to this very competitive Actress competition, let’s see how I did at this point in the calendar from 2019-21. Three years ago, I managed to identify all 5 eventual nominees – winner Renee Zellweger (Judy), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story), Saoirse Ronan (Little Women), and Charlize Theron (Bombshell). For the late October/early November frame in 2020 and 2021, I correctly called 3 of the 5. In 2020, that was Frances McDormand (Nomadland), who won her third Oscar along with Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) and Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were mentioned in Other Possibilities. The victor was also named last year with Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye as well as Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer). Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers) and Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) were in Other Possibilities.

So if the last three years are any precursor, you should find the eventual quintet in my ten picks! Frances McDormand could have company with performers sporting a trio of gold statues. A Supporting Actress winner in 2004 for The Aviator and lead actress recipient for 2013’s Blue Jasmine, Cate Blanchett is drawing some career best kudos for Tár. She’s been in my #1 spot for weeks and if she wins, she’d join McDormand, Katherine Hepburn, and Ingrid Bergman as the only actresses to win more than two Oscars.

Her main competition could come from several performers. Michelle Yeoh is receiving a massive push for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which is a threat to win numerous big races including Best Picture. There’s another Michelle and it’s a surprise… Michelle Williams. As I discussed in my Supporting Actress write-up, her performance in The Fabelmans would likely be a guaranteed winner in that category. With the more competitive vibe of lead actress, it’s not even a guarantee that she makes it in.

While Till may struggle to get recognition elsewhere despite strong reviews and an A+ Cinemascore, Danielle Deadwyler looks pretty strong to make the cut. On the other hand, so-so critical reaction could prevent Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) from getting her fourth nod in five years.

There are two performances yet to be seen that could both make a splash: Margot Robbie for Babylon and Naomi Ackie as Whitney Houston in I Wanna Dance with Somebody. It’s easy to envision either rising up if the reactions are positive enough.

Despite solid box office, Viola Davis could face an uphill battle for The Woman King. That narrative could change if both Robbie and Ackie falter. Some intensely negative audience and critical buzz for Blonde may leave Ana de Armas out. And there’s always potential dark horses. Emma Thompson will probably get a Golden Globes nom for Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, but Academy inclusion could be a reach. Women Talking‘s Rooney Mara might be ignored in favor of her supporting costars like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley. Causeway may not draw enough attention for Jennifer Lawrence to make it and the same holds true for The Wonder‘s Florence Pugh. Decision to Leave (despite having a chance to take International Feature Film) may not see its cast be a factor. That would leave out Tang Wei.

Here’s my state of this race!

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Cate Blanchett, Tár (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: 10) (E)

Best Director is up next!

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 23rd Edition

Elvis has left the top ten predicted nominees in my Best Picture rankings and it’s Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave back in the mix. The good news continues for Leave as it returns to #1 in International Feature Film over its close competitor All Quiet on the Western Front.

While the directing and lead acting derbies remain the same, there are changes in both supporting races. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is back in Supporting Actress over Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness). Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) falls out of the Supporting Actor quintet with Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) moving up.

Another picture increasing its nomination count is Living. I already had Bill Nighy in the Best Actor five and I’m now putting it in Adapted Screenplay while removing White Noise. Living also makes its debut in Costume Design for a total of three nods.

Later this week, I’ll have State of the Race detailed posts on the six major competitions (Picture, Director, the 4 acting contests).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Tár (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 11) (E)

12. She Said (PR: 12) (E)

13. Elvis (PR: 9) (-3)

14. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 15) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Todd Field, Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (E)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tár (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 3) (E)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)

8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rooney Mara, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ana de Armas, Blonde

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (E)

10. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nina Hoss, Tár (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 8) (E)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tár (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 3) (E)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bones and All (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Son (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Till

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1 . Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wendell and Wild (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Strange World (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Bad Guys (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (+1)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alcarras (PR: 8) (E)

9. Klondike (PR: 6) (-3)

10. EO (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Corsage

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1 . All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (E)

2. Descendant (PR: 2) (E)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+3)

7. The Territory (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (E)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Aftershock (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Emancipation

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (E)

5. Living (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Corsage (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Blonde

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elvis (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Batman (PR: 4) (E)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-2)

10. X (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Blonde

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Women Talking (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tár (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Batman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bardo

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (-1)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 8) (E)

9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 9) (E)

10. “At the Automat” from The Automat (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Love Is Not Love” from Bros

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (E)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (E)

10. Bardo (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Batman (PR: 6) (+2)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Tár (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Bardo

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. RRR (PR: 8) (E)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (-1)

And that equates to these pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans

7 Nominations

Women Talking

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin

5 Nominations

Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

4 Nominations

Tár

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living

2 Nominations

Bardo, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Till, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 16th Edition

On the bright side for Netflix, I have Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio at #1 in Animated Feature where it’s been perched all along. That would mean the streamer could nab its first victory ever in that race.

Now the bad news as my current Best Picture nominees leaves Netflix on the cutting room floor. In 2018, Roma was the first hopeful in the big dance. It was expected to win, but lost to Green Book. 2019 brought double nominees with The Irishman and Marriage Story. Same in 2020 with Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7. And there were two contenders again last year in Don’t Look Up and The Power of the Dog (a frontrunner until CODA fever emerged).

I had All Quiet on the Western Front in the mix 11 days ago. Yet I’ve had a nagging feeling that another blockbuster not named Top Gun: Maverick will get in. So for the first time, Elvis is in the top ten. That moneymaker spot could also be filled with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (from Netflix), Avatar: The Way of Water, or Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Think could also be called the “Second Sequel” slot, I suppose.

Don’t be surprised if Netflix eventually gets back in. Quiet, the aforementioned Onion, Bardo, and Pinocchio are all viable (maybe even White Noise). For now, my BP hopefuls would mean a disappointing nomination morning for the streamer.

She Said received mostly positive notices when it was unveiled Thursday at the New York Film Festival. It could absolutely be a BP contender, but I’m got it just on the outside and feel more comfortable forecasting it as a lone screenplay nominee (I don’t love the current 76% RT meter for it). You’ll note I don’t have any of the cast in my top tens. Perhaps the eventual announcement of category placements could change that.

In other developments:

    • I’ve decided to move Babylon‘s Margot Robbie back in Best Actress instead of supporting (can we please get that placement announcement??). It means she’s back in and Olivia Colman (Empire of Light) is out.
    • Bill Nighy’s work in Living returns to Actor five with Diego Calva (Babylon) sliding into sixth position.
    • With Robbie returning to lead, Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) is elevated to fifth in Supporting Actress.
    • My Supporting Actor dual nominee projections of Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin shifts to Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch for The Fabelmans. That means Hirsch rises while Keoghan falls.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Rank: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elvis (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

11. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 10) (-1)

12. She Said (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Decision to Leave (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Till

The Woman King 

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (E)

9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Carey Mulligan, She Said

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Will Smith, Emancipation 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Babylon (moved to Best Actress)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)

5. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

Micheal Ward, Empire of Light 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tar (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 6) (E)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Menu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Broker 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. She Said (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 6) (E)

7. Till (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Bones and All (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Son (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (+2)

7. The Sea Beast (PR: 6) (-1)

8. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Klondike (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alcarras (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Argentina, 1985 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Corsage (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Descendant (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Navalny (PR: 3) (E)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fire of Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Territory (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Moonage Daydream (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Last Flight Home (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Aftershock (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sr. 

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Empire of Light (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (E)

4. Bardo (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 6) (E)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Best Costume Design 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Corsage (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Woman King (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Living (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Best Film Editing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Women Talking (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Elvis (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tar (PR: 9) (+2)

8. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Decision to Leave

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Batman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Woman King (PR: 10) (+3)

8. X (PR: 8) (E)

9. Blonde (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Corsage

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tar (PR: 6) (+2)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bardo (PR: 10) (+2)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Top Gun: Maverick 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “Stand Up” from Till (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (-1)

7. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “New Body Rhumba” from White Noise (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 6) (-3)

10. “Love Is Not Love” from Bros (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick

“Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nope (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Thirteen Lives

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 8) (+1)

8. RRR (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: 9) (E)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nope 

That equates to these movies getting these numbers of nominations:

10 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

Women Talking

6 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis

5 Nominations

Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale

3 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Bardo, Triangle of Sadness 

2 Nominations

The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Empire of Light, Till, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Close, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Fire of Love, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, Wendell and Wild, White Noise

2022 Oscar Predictions: October 5th Edition

In the past week, the biggest Oscar news was the announcement that Emancipation with Will Smith will debut in December and therefore be eligible for consideration. You can read my thoughts on that here:

Emancipation Enters the Oscar Race

As you’ll see below, Emancipation doesn’t make much of an impact anywhere in my estimates. However, I am putting Will Smith in at 10th for Best Actor. Part of that is the fairly weak field for lead actor (especially compared to Actress). Do I think Smith will get a nod? No, but it’s not entirely out of the question if his performance is critically hailed.

My BP lineup has one change with Triangle of Sadness back in the top ten over Decision to Leave. 

In other developments:

    • Todd Field (Tar) returns to the directorial quintet and that removes Edward Berger for All Quiet on the Western Front.
    • While the Best Actress field remains the same, Danielle Deadwyler’s work in Till rises to 2nd place after rave notices at the New York Film Festival.
    • Brad Pitt (Babylon), who’s been subject to some bad press this week, falls out of my Supporting Actor five in favor of Ben Whishaw for Women Talking. 
    • Babylon has also been taken out of my Original Screenplay selections with Tar being elevated.
    • There’s a new #1 in Documentary Feature with Descendant nabbing the slot over All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

6. Tar (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)

9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+2)

10. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Elvis (PR: 13) (E)

14. Till (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Woman King (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Empire of Light

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 1) (E)

2. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (+3)

3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (PR: 9) (E)

10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Will Smith, Emancipation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Paul Mescal, Aftersun 

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everything All at Once (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Zoe Kazan, She Said

Sadie Sink, The Whale

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tar (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Babylon (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (E)

8. Armageddon Time (PR: 8) (E)

9. Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Broker (PR: 10 (E)

Dropped Out:

Bros

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Women Talking (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. White Noise (PR: 5) (+1)

5. She Said (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Living (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bones and All (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Till (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Son 

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 1) (E)

2. Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. Strange World (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wendell and Wild (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Sea Beast (PR: 7) (+1)

7. My Father’s Dragon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Bad Guys (PR: 8) (E)

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru (PR: 9) (E)

10. Lightyear (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 1) (E)

2. Decision to Leave (PR: 2) (E)

3. Close (PR: 3) (E)

4. Saint Omer (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holy Spider (PR: 6) (E)

7. Argetina, 1985 (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Klondike (PR: 8) (E)

9. Alcarras (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

EO

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Descendant (PR: 3) (+2)

2. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Navalny (PR: 2) (-1)

4. All That Breathes (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Territory (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Fire of Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Good Night Oppy (PR: 7) (E)

8. Last Flight Home (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Moonage Daydream (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sr. (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Empire of Light (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (-1)

4. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 4) (E)

5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (E)

9. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elvis (PR: 2) (E)

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Woman King (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Fabelmans (PR: 6) (E)

7. Corsage (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Living (PR: 9) (E)

10. Amsterdam (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Fabelmans (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Elvis (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Women Talking (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Tar (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Whale (PR: 1) (E)

2. Babylon (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Elvis (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Batman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Amsterdam (PR: Not Ranked)

8. X (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Corsage (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Woman King (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front

Three Thousand Years of Longing 

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Women Talking (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tar (PR: 5) (-1)

7. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Batman

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. “Nobody Like U” from Turning Red (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (PR: 9) (+5)

5. “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “On My Way” from Marry Me (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “New Body Rhuma” from White Noise (PR: 10) (+3)

8. “This is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “I Ain’t Worried” from Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Heartbeat” from Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Vegas” from Elvis 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Black Panther : Wakanda Forever (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elvis (PR: 2) (-2)

5. The Fabelmans (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bardo (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)

9. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Batman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Amsterdam

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elvis (PR: 3) (E)

4. Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. All Quiet on the Western Front (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 6) (E)

7. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (E)

9. Nope (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fabelmans

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 1) (E)

2. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 2) (E)

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Batman (PR: 4) (-2)

7. RRR (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Good Night Oppy (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nope (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All Quiet on the Western Front 

And that equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:

11 Nominations

Babylon

9 Nominations

The Fabelmans 

8 Nominations

Everything Everywhere All at Once

7 Nominations

The Banshees of Inisherin, Women Talking 

5 Nominations

All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale 

4 Nominations

Tar

3 Nominations

Avatar: The Way of Water, Empire of Light

2 Nominations

Bardo, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Triangle of Sadness, Turning Red

1 Nomination

All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, The Batman, Close, Decision to Leave, Descendant, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Navalny, RRR, Saint Omer, She Said, The Son, Till, Strange World, Tell It Like a Woman, The Territory, Wendell and Wild, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King