2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: September 6th Edition

What a difference a week makes! Last Thursday, I gave you my first initial predictions in the major categories for the Oscars. Since then – we’ve seen a slew of pictures screened at the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.

Films like A Star Is Born, Roma, First Man, and The Favourite solidified their status as contenders. Others like Boy Erased and The Front Runner availed themselves as possibilities, but not slam dunks. Others like Destroyer and The Old Man & The Gun likely took themselves out of the running in Best Picture, but shined a light on their actors that could receive nods.

And here’s the thing… by the time I do my third round of predictions next Thursday, we will have lots more pictures screened at the Toronto Film Festival, which begins today. That includes such high-profile titles as If Beale Street Could Talk, Beautiful Boy, Widows, and more.

Here’s how I have the key races ranked by possibility of nomination at this point in time!

Best Picture

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 4)

4. First Man (PR: 5)

5. Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)

6. The Favourite (PR: 13)

7. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Backseat (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. The Front Runner (PR: 14)

11. Black Panther (PR: 12)

12. Peterloo (PR: 9)

13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

14. Widows (PR: 11)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 16)

16. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 17)

17. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 22)

18. Green Book (PR: 21)

19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 24)

20. Cold War (PR: Not Ranked)

21. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 23)

22. July 22 (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 19)

24. The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

25. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

The Old Man & The Gun

Destroyer

Ben Is Back

Best Director

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 2)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 11)

7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)

8. Adam McKay, Backseat (PR: 7)

9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

10. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)

11. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (PR: 9)

12. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 13)

14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

15. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)

Dropped Out:

Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fp_i7cnOgbQ&t=1s

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)

3. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

4. Christian Bale, Backseat (PR: 6)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)

7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 5)

8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

10. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 13)

11. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 12)

13. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 14)

14. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICDSkdzgiD0

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

3. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 6)

4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 9)

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 7)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 3)

9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

11. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)

12. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 15)

13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

14. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

15. Joanna Kulig, Cold War

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat (PR: 3)

4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

5. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 9)

10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)

11. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

12. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 11)

13. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)

14. Matthew McConaughey, White Boy Rick (PR: Not Ranked)

15. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sebastian Stan, Destroyer

Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zqom4jCui8

Best Supporting Actress

1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 3)

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Amy Adams, Backseat (PR: 5)

4. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner (PR: 10)

5. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 12)

10. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)

11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 11)

12. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

13. Blythe Danner, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

15. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer

Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

4. Boy Erased (PR: 3)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

7. The Front Runner (PR: 8)

8. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)

9. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

10. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

11. Disobedience (PR: 13)

12. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)

13. Widows (PR: 12)

14. Wildlife (PR: 14)

15. The Miseducation of Cameron Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Old Man & The Gun

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 5)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. Backseat (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

5. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. Green Book (PR: 11)

7. Peterloo (PR: 2)

8. Vox Lux (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ben is Back (PR: 8)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 13)

11. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)

12. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)

13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 6)

14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)

15. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Destroyer

Colette

Check back next Thursday for updated predictions!

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: August 30th Edition

My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!

Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.

In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).

Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.

In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.

All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.

You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. A Star Is Born

3. Beautiful Boy

4. Roma

5. First Man

6. BlacKkKlansman

7. Boy Erased

8. Backseat

9. Peterloo

Other Possibilities:

10. Mary Queen of Scots

11. Widows

12. Black Panther

13. The Favourite

14. The Front Runner

15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

17. Crazy Rich Asians

18. Old Man & The Gun

19. Bohemian Rhapsody

20. Destroyer

21. Green Book

22. Mary Poppins Returns

23. At Eternity’s Gate

24. On the Basis of Sex

25. Ben Is Back

Best Director

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Damien Chazelle, First Man

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

7. Adam McKay, Backseat

8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo

10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

12. Steve McQueen, Widows

13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner

15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man

5. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Other Possibilities:

6. Christian Bale, Backseat

7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

11. Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

13. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

2. Glenn Close, The Wife

3. Viola Davis, Widows

4. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

5. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary

8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

9. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

11. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

12. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

13. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

14. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

15. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat

4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

5. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

7. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

9.. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

10. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

11. Jason Clarke, First Man

12. Sebastian Stan, Destroyer

13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

14. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

15. Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Claire Foy, First Man

4. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

5. Amy Adams, Backseat

Other Possibilities:

6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy

7. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

8. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun

9. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

10. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner

11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

13. Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer

14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Beautiful Boy

3. Boy Erased

4. A Star Is Born

5. BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man

7. Mary Queen of Scots

8. The Front Runner

9. Crazy Rich Asians

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

11. Old Man & The Gun

12. Widows

13. Disobedience

14. Wildlife

15. The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma

2. Peterloo

3. Backseat

4. Eighth Grade

5. The Favourite

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

7. Destroyer

8. Ben Is Back

9. On the Basis of Sex

10. At Eternity’s Gate

11. Green Book

12. Colette

13. A Quiet Place

14. Bohemian Rhapsody

15. Sorry to Bother You

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

And so it begins yet again!!

It’s an exciting time on the blog as Oscar prediction season is here. Readers of this here know that every Thursday starting very soon, I will be posting weekly Oscar predictions in the six major categories… wait, make that seven as I will now be including the new and controversial Most Popular Film race.

It begins today with Best Supporting Actress where I’m posting my first initial five predicted women and ten other possibilities. We will move on to Supporting Actor, the lead acting categories, Director, Most Popular Film, and Picture in short order.

A word of warning: these are very early predictions and they will unquestionably change. I like to do my first estimates before the film festival season approaches (beginning next week). Toronto and Venice and other fests will surely shape my predictions in a massive away. Expect lots of Oscar Watch posts in the next month concentrating on dozens of screened movies at the festivals.

Beginning next Thursday (August 30), I will begin my weekly posts listing 25 possibilities for Picture and 15 in the other major races. At that time, numerical rankings will come into play. In November, that will switch to 15 listings for Picture and 10 in ALL other categories honoring feature films.

Today it begins and here is my early bird look at Supporting Actress…

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Claire Foy, First Man

Nicole Kidman, Boy, Erased

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun

Other Possibilities:

Amy Adams, Backseat

Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Annette Bening, Life Itself

Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

Julia Roberts, Ben is Back

Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

Tilda Swinton, Suspiria

Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Look for Supporting Actor very soon!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCqdkEzcuK8

Monster Trucks Box Office Prediction

Paramount Pictures may have an enormous flop on their hands when Monster Trucks next weekend. And that’s not just me saying that, folks. The studio itself has reportedly taken a $115 million write down on the project due to its anticipated bad performance.

Made for an inexplicable $125 million, the 3D live-action/computer animated flick is hoping to appeal to young boys who may drag their parents simply based on its title. Chris Wedge, known for animated fare such as Ice Age and Robots, directs. The cast includes Lucas Till, Jane Levy, Amy Ryan, Rob Lowe, Danny Glover, Barry Pepper, and lots of questionable looking CG based on the trailers. Trucks has been in the can for some time. It was originally scheduled to come out over a year and a half ago and then experienced multiple delays.

Coproduced by Nickelodeon Movies, the fact that a film of this budget has been relegated to a crowded January weekend tells you all you need to know. I believe Monster will just top double digits over the long MLK weekend and earn its expected status as a bomb.

Monster Trucks opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million

For my Patriots Day prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/patriots-day-box-office-prediction/

For my Live by Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/live-by-night-box-office-prediction/

For my Sleepless prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/04/sleepless-box-office-prediction/

For my Silence prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/silence-box-office-prediction/

For my The Bye Bye Man prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/05/the-bye-bye-man-box-office-prediction/

Central Intelligence Movie Review

Central Intelligence is not bad, which is more than you can say with some scripts that Kevin Hart has been saddled with over the last few years. From Ride Along (both of them) to The Wedding Ringer to Get Hard, the talented Mr. Hart has not seen much material that rises above the strictly mediocre. With a worthy comedic partner in Dwayne Johnson that he has an easy chemistry with, Intelligence may not be very intelligent but it’s got its share of genuinely amusing moments due to their partnership.

The film begins in 1996 when the two stars are high school seniors. Hart is Calvin. He’s the star athlete, resident heralded drama thespian, and runaway Most Likely to Succeed. Johnson is Robbie, whose figure is anything but rock solid. He’s bullied mercilessly by his fellow students and Calvin is the only guy who seems to show him any mercy.

Flash forward two decades as the two are up for the 20 year reunion. Calvin has become a bored accountant in a dead end job, still married somewhat unhappily to his high school sweetheart (Danielle Nicolet). Robbie is now the blandly named Bob Stone, complete with a physique befitting the actor portraying him. He’s now in the CIA and being accused of being a rogue agent trying to sell secrets to the highest bidder.

What follows is a routine buddy flick where Bob/Robbie and Calvin must team up while chased by people who may or may not be bad guys. Amy Ryan gets the change of pace role of the government agency head pursuing them and Aaron Paul pops up as Robbie’s former partner. The threadbare plot of Central Intelligence is ho-hum at best, but it’s also not what it’s centrally about.

The pic rises and falls on the interaction between the leads and there’s some good stuff to be witnessed. Johnson has already proven his sense of humor (he seems well aware that his character in the Fast & Furious franchise is supposed to be funny). We also have some messages written in about bullying that’s presented slightly better than you might expect in this type of material. There’s some unexpected cameos from other well known comedy actors that are welcome. Director Rawson Marshall Thurber had a hit in 2013 with We’re the Millers, which I enjoyed. That effort had the benefit of hilarious supporting work from Nick Offerman and Kathryn Hahn and a whacky villain role for Ed Helms that accentuated the proceedings beyond its main stars. Central Intelligence doesn’t have that, but at least the two names above the title help deliver something a bit more worthy of their talents.

**1/2 (out of four)

The Infiltrator Box Office Prediction

Throwing Bryan Cranston into a dangerous drug dealing world worked out pretty well on the small screen with his iconic role as Walter White on “Breaking Bad”. Next Wednesday, Broad Green Pictures is hoping the same holds true with The Infiltrator.

The 1980s set crime drama has Cranston as a customs agent tasked with the unenviable assignment of going undercover in Pablo Escobar’s drug cartel. Brad Furman, maker of The Lincoln Lawyer and 2013’s unfortunate Runner Runner, directs and the supporting cast includes Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan. The studio is obviously hoping audiences will be primed for some adult counter programming. Reviews thus far have been pretty positive with much of the acclaim centered on Cranston. Looking over some recent similar genre titles – there is some hope. 2012’s Savages debuted to $16 million. Last year’s Sicario managed just over $12 million out of the gate.

Those are the very best case scenarios here. I believe The Infiltrator probably won’t manage double digits, even when including the five-day roll out. It seems highly unlikely to recoup its reported $47 million budget. The pic might have been better off as an early fall release and its best hope could be that viewers get their fix with it when it becomes available for home viewing.

The Infiltrator opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Ghostbusters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/07/06/ghostbusters-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Infiltrator

On July 13, The Infiltrator hits theaters and reviews for the 1980s set true life drug tale began surfacing this week. The pic tells the story of a U.S. customs agent who goes undercover in Pablo Escobar’s massive drug empire. Bryan Cranston plays the title character. Brad Furman (who made The Lincoln Lawyer) directs and costars include Diane Kruger, Benjamin Bratt, John Leguizamo, and Amy Ryan.

Reviews have been mostly positive – yet it stands little chance at recognition for Best Picture or for any of its supporting players. Where it could infiltrate Oscar voting is in Best Actor and, if so, it would be Cranston’s second nomination in a row. In 2015, the Breaking Bad performer received his first nod for Trumbo, despite some mixed reviews and weak box office.

Critics have been quick to point out that Cranston’s work here is the brightest spot. It also may not hurt that the actor should receive Emmy attention for his role as President Lyndon Johnson in All the Way.

We’ll see how the Actor race plays out into the fall, but Cranston could be one to watch as The Infiltrator is released in a week and a half.

Central Intelligence Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros. is banking that audiences want to find themselves between a Rock and a Hart Place (get it?) when Central Intelligence opens next weekend. The action comedy is headlined by Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart and hopes to become the first breakout comedy of summer 2016. Rawson Marshall Thurber directs and he’s had success in the genre before with Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story and We’re the Millers. Costars include Amy Ryan and Aaron Paul.

As mentioned, this season so far has not been kind to comedies as Neighbors 2, The Nice Guys, and Popstar have all performed with unimpressive results. The one two punch of Johnson and Hart should be a benefit. Hart’s last two pics, Ride Along 2 and Get Hard, both debuted in the mid-30s. While some of the parents that this film is marketing to might be busy taking their little ones to Finding Dory, I don’t see much reason why this wouldn’t accomplish similar results.

A decent comp could be last summer’s Spy with Melissa McCarthy, which opened to $29 million. I’ll say Central Intelligence manages to outdo it and be more in range with Hart’s recent efforts.

Central Intelligence opening weekend prediction: $34.1 million

For my Finding Dory prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/06/08/finding-dory-box-office-prediction/

Goosebumps Movie Review

Nearly a quarter century after the wildly popular R.L. Stine’s children’s books were first published, Goosebumps finally makes its way to the silver screen. After dozens of the novels and a TV show, it’s a bit surprising it took so long to get this adaptation off the ground. Tim Burton was attached to helm in the late 90s when Goosebumps was considerably more popular.

Yet here we are and the long gestating Goosebumps has arrived with a simple and sometimes clever concept. Jack Black plays Mr. Stine himself, who lives in a quiet Delaware town with his teenage daughter Hannah (Odeya Rush). When new kid in town Zach (Dylan Minnette) arrives from New York City, he strikes up a friendship with next door neighbor Hannah while Dad strenuously disapproves and doesn’t even want him crossing the fence to visit. We soon find out why. It turns out that Stine’s original manuscripts for his works are locked down and if they’re opened, the many monsters he wrote about escape. This, of course, occurs. For fans of the series, this means a treasure trove of familiar creatures including zombies and werewolves and giant insects and so forth. Leading them is Slappy the Ventriloquist Dummy (don’t call him a dummy though), voiced by Black. It also means a lot of CGI that is decent, but nothing special.

While Tim Burton didn’t direct (Rob Letterman did), this sure sounds like one of his pictures with its Danny Elfman score. Black seems to be having a good time and hams it up a bit. Other performances are adequate (though Minnette is a bit bland). The exception is Jillian Bell as Zach’s love seeking aunt. She seems to stand out lately in everything she does. Amy Ryan has little to do as his mom and Ryan Lee has a couple funny moments as his girl crazy new best bud.

Kids should eat this up and there’s enough fun to keep the adults from checking out. Goosebumps eventually wears a little thin and runs out of interesting situations to put all these dastardly creations (a ho hum sequence with a werewolf terrorizing a mostly empty supermarket doesn’t really cut it). Lovers of these books that have sold 400 million copies have waited quite a while to see Stine’s imagination on the big screen. The results are neither frighteningly good or howlingly bad.

**1/2 (out of four)

Goosebumps Box Office Prediction

Based on the well known series of children’s books by R.L. Stine, the family friendly Goosebumps opens in theaters next weekend, hoping to bring in a sizable kid crowd. The film is directed by Rob Letterman and Jack Black, who teamed up in 2010 for Gulliver’s Travels, which failed at the box office to the tune of $42 million.

This time around, they appear to have fairly positive word of mouth on their side with an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score and a sequel possibly in the works. It also doesn’t hurt that its release date is close to Halloween. Family audiences turned out big time for Hotel Transylvania 2, however, so whether there’s a major clamor for scarily themed entertainment remains to be seen.

I could envision this opening to around the same number that Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day made last October: $18.3 million. I’ll say Goosebumps just tops that for a respectable start and we’ll see how it plays in future weekends.

Goosebumps opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million