There’s a through line that’s marked a number of Melissa McCarthy vehicles since her Oscar-nominated turn in 2011’s Bridesmaids. Take the greatly talented comedic actress, give her a mostly unpleasant character, establish a backstory that makes her somewhat sympathetic, and hope audiences eat it up. These rules have generally applied to IdentityThief, TheHeat, and Tammy. None of them have been terribly impressive due to weak material. This applies to TheBoss as well.
Reuniting with her Tammy director Ben Falcone (who’s also her husband), McCarthy is self-made mogul Michelle Darnell. She’s a ruthless investor who sells out arenas with her take no prisoners business advice. Kristen Bell is Claire, her overloaded executive assistant who isn’t even allowed that lofty sounding title. When Michelle’s actions land her a short stint in Club Fed for insider trading, she’s back to square one and dependent on her old subordinate for lodging. That means crashing on the sofa in a crowded apartment with Claire’s young daughter (Ella Anderson). A trip with that child to a Girl Scout type meeting gives Michelle her first post felony money making idea: take Claire’s delicious brownie making skills, market them with a team of cute kids selling them, and work her way back up the corporate ladder.
Along the way, Michelle clashes with some of her new minions parents (most humorously with Annie Mumolo’s tightly wound Mom). These clashes even lead to an Anchorman style no holds barred brawl (Will Ferrell and Adam McKay are producers). The title character also deals with some of her own movie backstory demons. When she was young, Michelle bounced from one unhappy foster home to the next and has no sense or need in her view for family. Claire and daughter threaten to upset that apple cart.
There’s also the matter of her business rival Renault, former lover and wannabe samurai Renault (Peter Dinklage) trying to shut her burgeoning brownie enterprise down. His character is as bizarre as he sounds, but the “Game of Thrones” star does throw himself into it with gusto. A superfluous subplot involves Claire trying to get her groove back with a kind co-worker (Tyler Lapine).
TheBoss veers between wildly broad characters and physical comedy (which McCarthy and her stunt double are quite good at) and attempts at heart string pulling that falls flat. McCarthy’s abilities were proven nearly six years ago in one Bridesmaids scene where she told Kristin Wiig to get her act together. It was a brilliant scene that I suspect is responsible for that Oscar nod. Unfortunately, by now, McCarthy’s act is getting disappointingly familiar and the material she’s giving herself is forgettable.
In a way, WarDogs is a bit of a companion piece to TheBigShort. We have a director (Todd Phillips) known for humorous material making a more serious and based on true events effort about controversial policies during the Bush/Cheney era. We have a mix of dramatic and comedic actors telling the tale. However, whereas Adam McKay’s aforementioned 2014 picture was a big success, Dogs falls short.
Its failings are certainly not due to lack of an interesting story. We begin in 2005 when the Iraq conflict is at its height. While the war is dividing a nation, David (Miles Teller) is living a carefree existence in Miami as a massage therapist. His major conflict is making enough cash to support him and his pregnant girlfriend (Ana de Armas). David’s financial issues are provided a boost when he runs into his junior high best bud Efraim (Jonah Hill). He seems to be doing just fine and David soon discovers his old friend is making a killing as an arms dealer selling product to the U.S. government. Efraim soon cuts David in as a partner and their deals bring them to the Middle East, including drab Albania. It is that deal, involving selling 100 million rounds of ammo to the military, that will provide their windfall payload. It also provides all sorts of dangerous problems.
Dogs wags an understandable critical finger at the ease in which these twentysomethings with zero government or defense experience managed their exploits. As Efraim and David become richer than they ever could have envisioned, their trappings of wealth storyline feels awfully familiar. David’s relationship suffers, Efraim’s already diabolical personality grows out of control, etc… Yes, this may be a true story, but all this material felt truly well-worn.
As for performances, Hill has shown himself to be adept at both funny stuff and less funny stuff (Moneyball and TheWolfofWallStreet as the prime examples). His performance here isn’t near as effective and I couldn’t escape the notion that he seemed to be trying a bit too hard to pull off his bad guy role. Teller is a talent as well (Whiplash as prime example), but his work here is a couple notches above bland. Bradley Cooper turns up for a few minutes as a shady dealer whose character is just interesting enough that I would’ve liked to see him more.
The source material (based on a RollingStone article) should have garnered a richer experience than what Phillips gives us. WarDogs has plenty in common with TheBigShort in terms of personnel involved, but little in common with it as to lasting impression.
Last night, the Directors Guild of America bestowed their Best Director honor and it went to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for his work in The Revenant. It follows his win at the Golden Globes. This is the second year in a row that the DGA has honored Mr. Inarritu after his victory for Birdman in 2014.
So what does this mean for the Oscars taking place three weeks from today? Well, it certainly gives Inarritu a leg up over over his competitors George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Adam McKay (The Big Short), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), and Lenny Abrahamson (Room). The DGA winner and Oscar winner have matched 21 out of 25 times since 1990. That’s 84%, folks. It is probably reasonable to say that he is the front runner to win come Oscar night. If so, he will be the first auteur to win back to back golden statues in 65 years, since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949 and 1950.
As for whether that translates to a Best Picture win for The Revenant, that question is murkier. While the Picture recipient matches up more often than not with the Director victor, that hasn’t been the case for two of the last three years. While Inarritu’s Birdman did win the big prize a year ago, Ang Lee took Director in 2012 for Life of Pi while Argo won Picture. In 2013, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity work made him a winner while 12 Years a Slave took Picture. As I see it, 2015’s Picture race is still a close call between The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short.
Bottom line: the DGA provided a boost for The Revenant’s maker to be honored in three weeks for the second time in as many years.
There’s a fine line between comedy and tragedy and it’s explored in sometimes serious and often darkly funny detail in Adam McKay’s The Big Short. Based on Michael Lewis’s book detailing the people who correctly predicted the housing bubble that burst wide open in 2008, Short chronicles their stories while condemning so many who looked the other way. Prior to this, director McKay has been solely known for Will Ferrell comedies and some of them (The Other Guys and even Anchorman 2) nibbled around the edges with the subject of corporate greed. With this film, McKay manages to balance a complex issue foreign to most viewers while infusing it with much needed humor. It helps because without it, we might just want to scream at the screen for two hours and that still happens from time to time.
Michael Burry (Christian Bale) is a highly eccentric hedge fund honcho who figures out that something is majorly wrong with our nation’s housing market about three years before the foundation totally collapses. His timely discoveries are met with skepticism from nearly all corners. The exceptions are from Ryan Gosling’s bond salesman, Steve Carell’s unhappy Wall Street hedge fund manager, and a duo (John Magaro and Finn Wittlock) trying to take their fledgling business into the NYC scene. They all come to believe Burry’s siren calls and they all try to maneuver their way to profit off it. There are no real heroes here, but they really have no idea at first just how corrupt the system is that’s creating the impending doom.
McKay realizes that the many Wall Street technical terms are, frankly, confusing as hell. In a nice stroke, he enlists celebrities like The Wolf of Wall Street ingenue Margot Robbie and others to creatively explain what we are witnessing. It helps, but the director and his cowriter Charles Randolph delve into a deeper truth: no one really understands what’s happening or are willing to own up to it while billions of dollars line the pockets of many. Meanwhile, scores of people believe they can actually afford the pretty home they dwell in.
The Big Short hearkens back to 1970s filmmaking in certain manners. It’s political, has a point of view, and isn’t afraid to show it. If you felt McKay’s annoyance at the elite crowd in those Ferrell pics, this opens up an unmistakable furious floodgate. He’s enlisted a stable of talented performers to tell the tale. In particular, Bale continues to demonstrate his ability to disappear into a role while Carell continues to show his dramatic abilities are just as strong as his comedic ones. Brad Pitt also turns up as an ex banker who helps uncover the fraud. The screenplay provides many guffaws, but this is not a “comedy”, no matter what the awards shows portend. And a well deserved shout out goes to Hank Corwin, the picture’s editor who does a masterful job.
You’ll likely cringe while you’re laughing and that’s the way McKay wants it. The biggest scare is that this effort doesn’t pretend like the crisis explained here won’t occur once again. According to The Big Short, believe it won’t at your own risk and don’t bet the house on it.
It’s been two days since the Oscar nominations came out, allowing some time to pass to digest what and who is being recognized. After numerous posts prognosticating the nominations, we now arrive at this question: What Will Win??
Today brings my initial round of guesses on the movies and performers that I believe will get their gold statues. I will definitely have a second and final round posted probably two to three days before the February ceremony.
Let’s get to it:
BEST PICTURE
First off, there are four selections that basically should be happy with the nomination: Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room. Mad Max: Fury Road is a major long shot. That leaves a three picture race and indeed it is. Between The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight – this is truly a competitive category this time around. I’m currently giving the ever so slight edge to Spotlight, which has been considered the soft front runner for a while now. Be warned though: the other two are hot on its heels.
PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Tom McCarthy’s work in Spotlight could be honored with outside chances for Adam McKay (The Big Short) or George Miller (Mad Max). Lenny Abrahamson’s surprise nomination for Room succeeded in screwing up people’s predictions. He has no chance to win. Yet I’ll go with the Academy honoring Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s direction in The Revenant, just one year after he received the prize for Birdman.
PREDICTED WINNER: Inarritu
BEST ACTOR
We will make this simple: it appears that Leonardo DiCaprio is finally going to win a statue for The Revenant. He is the very heavy favorite and if he doesn’t emerge victorious, it would probably constitute the largest upset of the evening.
PREDICTED WINNER: DiCaprio
BEST ACTRESS
Like lead Actor, there is a front runner here with Brie Larson in Room. Unlike Actor, the possibility for an upset is real with both Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) and Saoirse Ronan. I’ll stick with Larson though. Cate Blanchett (Carol) and Jennifer Lawrence (Joy) seem like non factors.
PREDICTED WINNER: Larson
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This was an incredibly difficult category to predict with about 12 performances in the running. Now that we know the nominees, this is a race ripe for an upset. Any of the five – Christian Bale (The Big Short), Tom Hardy (The Revenant), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies), Sylvester Stallone (Creed) – are feasible recipients. Rylance has won some precursors, but like the Golden Globes, I’ll project that sentimentality wins out with Stallone standing center stage.
PREDICTED WINNER: Stallone
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
No major front runner here but Alicia Vikander had a great year with another heralded role in Ex Machina. I’ll predict her work in The Danish Girl eeks out a win over Rooney Mara (Carol), Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Globes winner Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs), and Rachel McAdams (Spotlight).
PREDICTED WINNER: Vikander
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Short and sweet here – Spotlight is the heavy front runner here and I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t win here. I’m much more confident in predicting a victory for it here than in Picture.
PREDICTED WINNER: Spotlight
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Martian or Room have outside shots, but this looks like a win for The Big Short.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Anomalisa has its hardcore fans, but Pixar’s Inside Out is the big favorite.
PREDICTED WINNER: Inside Out
BEST FOREIGN FILM
Easy pick. Son of Saul is a huge front runner. Mustang is the only completion.
PREDICTED WINNER: Son of Saul
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy, chronicling the career of the late singer Amy Winehouse, is the favorite. For now, however, I’m going with an upset pick in the form of Cartel Land.
PREDICTED WINNER: Cartel Land
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The legendary John Williams could be in the running for his latest Star Wars score, but I’ll predict the Academy honors another legend: Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Hateful Eight
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Was very surprised to see “See You Again” from Furious 7 snubbed. To me, that would have been the main competition for “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground, performed by Lady Gaga.
PREDICTED WINNER: “Til It Happens To You” from The Hunting Ground
BEST SOUND EDITING
I believe these sound categories will come down to a battle between Mad Max and Star Wars, with The Revenant as a spoiler. For now, I’m splitting the difference.
PREDICTED WINNER: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
BEST SOUND MIXING
See above.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Once again, I see this as a contest between Chewbacca and Max. I’ll give Max the slight edge.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
This is another tough one with Mad Max maintaining a small edge over The Revenant and The Martian.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Hateful Eight stands a chance here, as does Mad Max. However, I believe Emmanuel Lubezki will take home his third Oscar in a row for The Revenant.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Revenant
BEST EDITING
This race often matches Picture and could here with Spotlight. The Big Short, Mad Max, and The Revenant are in the mix. This is practically a coin flip for me right now so don’t be shocked if this changes.
PREDICTED WINNER: The Big Short
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Only three nominees here and Mad Max and The Revenant are likely the only two winner possibilities.
PREDICTED WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Sandy Powell could split her own vote between Carol and Cinderella. Mad Max and The Danish Girl are in the running, but I’ll go with Powell and her work in Carol.
PREDICTED WINNER: Carol
And there you have it! My first Oscar winner predictions.
Here we are folks! After numerous posts prognosticating on what and whom will be nominated for the Academy Awards honoring 2015’s best, we will all collectively find out tomorrow morning. This Oscar season has been filled with much intrigue and a great deal of uncertainty.
Many questions abound:
Will the performances of Rooney Mara (Carol) and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) be recognized in lead Actress or Supporting Actress? That query alone makes predicting both of those races tricky this year. I will go with both being recognized in Supporting, but if Oscar voters go lead with one or both, it changes the whole dynamic. There’s also the possibility that Vikander could be honored in Supporting for Ex Machina and not Danish, which adds to the confusion.
Will the Academy nominate their first Star Wars pic (The Force Awakens) since the original 38 years ago? It’s already become the highest grossing film of all time and could certainly lead to even more eyeballs watching the telecast. That said, I have it narrowly missing the cut.
Will Leonardo DiCaprio finally win the gold statue for his work in The Revenant? Precursor awards including the Golden Globes point to yes. A nomination seems assured.
Is Spotlight truly the front runner or not? Many other possibilities are out there for an “upset” win. It is, at best, a soft front runner.
I’ll finally note that my predictions reflect a belief that Straight Outta Compton will be shut out. This goes against what several other predictors are saying and many have it being recognized in Best Picture. Another high profile offering that I have coming up empty: Black Mass.
As I’ve done for the last several weeks, I’m listing my predicted nominees and other possibilities in each category by likelihood of being nominated. Just because I have something listed as #1 doesn’t mean I’m predicting it to win (I’ll have my first blog post up predicting the winners this weekend). In parentheses after each entry is how far each predicted nominee/possibility has fallen from my previous predictions last week. On Thursday evening, I’ll have a post up letting you know how well (or not so much) I did.
Let’s get to it, shall we? My FINAL predictions:
Best Picture
As I see it, there are 21 films vying for anywhere from 5-10 spots. The magic number is usually 9 (last year it was 8). I’m going with 9 this year, though I believe 10 is more probable than 8. And strangely enough, my predicted nine has stayed the same over the course of the last month or so. Straight Outta Compton, Sicario, and even The Force Awakens have made some waves of late, but I still have them narrowly missing.
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Room (-4)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Sicario (+1)
14. Inside Out (-1)
15. Steve Jobs (+1)
16. Ex Machina (+2)
17. Trumbo (No Change)
18. Beasts of No Nation (-3)
19. Son of Saul (+1)
20. The Danish Girl (-1)
21. Creed (No Change)
Best Director
Tuesday’s Directors Guild of America usually provides a reasonably reliable snap shot of at least three or four of the nominees that will end up being recognized here. Their picks were Tom McCarthy, Ridley Scott, George Miller, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, and Adam McKay. Of those, McKay seems the most vulnerable (with Miller and Scott behind). I’ll keep my prediction for Todd Haynes in and there’s certainly a chance there’s a shocker nominee as we sometimes see in this category.
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (-3)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
7. Adam McKay, The Big Short (-1)
8. Denis Villenueve, Sicario (+5)
9. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
10. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (+1)
11. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
12. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-2)
13. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
14. Jay Roach, Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
15. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Alex Garland, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
17. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (-2)
18. Ryan Coogler, Creed (Previously Unranked)
19. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs (Previously Unranked)
20. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl (Previously Unranked)
Best Actor
This race is increasingly looking like ‘The Leo Show” with Mr. DiCaprio likely to nab (finally) his first Oscar. Only Leo seems to be a totally safe bet (though it would be a surprise to me if Redmayne and Fassbender don’t get in and probably Cranston too). I would say numbers 5-8 are practically interchangeable while anything 9 or below would be a fairly big surprise.
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, The Big Short (-1)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (No Change)
10. Michael Caine, Youth (No Change)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (+1)
12. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (-1)
Best Actress
As previously discussed, all the rules go out the window if either Rooney Mara or Alicia Vikander are recognized here instead of in Supporting Actress. That said, I feel pretty confident about Larson, Ronan, and Blanchett. The rest? Not so much.
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (+1)
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
7. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (+1)
8. Emily Blunt, Sicario (+3)
9. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams (+1)
10. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back (-1)
11. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actor
Bottom line: I feel like Rylance and Stallone are the only safe bets here. This category has been wide open for quite some time and all 12 performers listed here could get in. Very curious to see how this works out come tomorrow.
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (+1)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (-1)
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (+1)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (No Change)
7. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (No Change)
8. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (No Change)
9. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (No Change)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
12. Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
Best Supporting Actress
Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander seem like safe bets – as long as they’re nominated here and not in Actress. Kate Winslet (fresh off a Globe win) and Jennifer Jason Leigh should play here, too. The fifth slot is truly up for grabs, I feel.
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (No Change)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (-1)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
7. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (No Change)
8. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
9. Joan Allen, Room (-1)
10. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (No Change)
11. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
12. Marion Cotillard, MacBeth (Previously Unranked)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
8. Love and Mercy (No Change)
9. Son of Saul (+2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Room (No Change)
Steve Jobs (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+1)
8. Beasts of No Nation (+1)
9. Trumbo (-2)
10. Mad Max: Fury Road (Previously Unranked)
11. Anomalisa (No Change)
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (No Change)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (-1)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
Best Documentary Feature (First Time Predictions)
Amy
The Look of Silence
Winter on Fire
Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
He Named Me Malala
Other Possibilities:
6. Listen to Me Marlon
7. Best of Enemies
8. The Hunting Ground
9. Where to Invade Next
10. Heart of the Dog
Best Foreign Language Film (First Time Predictions)
Son of Saul
Mustang
A War
The Brand New Testament
Embrace of the Serpent
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fencer
7. Labyrinth of Lies
8. Theeb
9. Viva
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Carol (-2)
The Revenant (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brooklyn (-1)
7. The Martian (Previously Unranked)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
9. The Hateful Eight (-3)
10. Cinderella (-3)
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Sicario (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carol (+1)
7. Son of Saul (+2)
8. The Martian (-2)
9. The Assassin (-1)
10. Spotlight (Previously Unranked)
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
Cinderella (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mad Max: Fury Road (+6)
7. The Hateful Eight (-1)
8. Suffragette (-1)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. Mr. Holmes (Previously Unranked)
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (No Change)
Spotlight (+2)
The Revenant (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (-3)
7. Sicario (+3)
8. Steve Jobs (-2)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+3)
10. The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. Room (-3)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Black Mass (-1)
5. Mr. Holmes (No Change)
6. Concussion (No Change)
7. Legend (No Change)
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+3)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Sicario (No Change)
The Martian (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
8. Jurassic World (-1)
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (-1)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. Bridge of Spies (Previously Unranked)
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ex Machina (-1)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Ant-Man (Previously Unranked)
9. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1)
10. In the Heart of the Sea (-4)
Best Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+2)
Bridge of Spies (-2)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Best Original Song
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+2)
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (-1)
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+4)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
These FINAL predictions reflect a belief that the following pictures will receive this number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Revenant
9 Nominations
Mad Max: Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol
7 Nominations
Bridge of Spies
6 Nominations
The Martian
5 Nominations
The Danish Girl, The Hateful Eight
4 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room, Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Inside Out, Trumbo
1 Nomination
Beasts of No Nation, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Love and Mercy, The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared, Spectre, Youth
And there you have it, folks! My final Oscar predictions! I’ll have an update posted tomorrow. Until then…
We have arrived at my weekly Friday predictions for who and what will be nominated for the Oscars honoring 2015 pictures. This will be the last Friday I’ll be doing so because the nominations themselves come out this Thursday, January 14th. I will have one final post of predictions either on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
One consistent source of consternation is whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in lead Actress or Supporting Actress for Carol (same goes, to a lesser degree, for Alicia Vikander’s work in The Danish Girl). Last week, I had her in Actress, but now I’m switching back to Supporting. We shall see. As with my posts every week, it will show where the movers and shakers have shifted around with chances of nomination.
So here goes… my penultimate Oscar predictions…
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
The Big Short (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Room (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (+1)
Carol (-2)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
Brooklyn (-1)
Other Possibilities:
10. Straight Outta Compton (+3)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Inside Out (-2)
14. Sicario (+4)
15. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Trumbo (+2)
18. Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
19. The Danish Girl (+1)
20. Son of Saul (-5)
21. Creed (-4)
DROPPED OUT: Anomalisa
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (-1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (+1)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (No Change)
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn (+3)
10. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (-1)
11. F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
DROPPED OUT: Creed, Mad Max: Fury Road (moved to Original)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (No Change)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (+1)
The Good Dinosaur (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Peanuts Movie (-2)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Minions
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Good Dinosaur. Out: The Peanuts Movie.
Best Production Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Brooklyn (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. Cinderella (-1)
8. MacBeth (+3)
9. The Revenant (-1)
10. Far From the Madding Crowd (No Change)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Brooklyn. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Hateful Eight (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Carol (+1)
8. The Assassin (Previously Unranked)
9. Son of Saul (-2)
DROPPED OFF: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl (+1)
Carol (-1)
Brooklyn (+1)
Cinderella (-1)
Far from the Madding Crowd (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Suffragette (+3)
8. Trumbo (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (No Change)
10. MacBeth (-2)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
12. Mad Max: Fury Road (-5)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Big Short (+5)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Spotlight (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Jobs (-1)
7. Bridge of Spies (+1)
8. Room (+4)
9. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Sicario (-4)
11. Straight Outta Compton (Previously Unranked)
12. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-2)
DROPPED OUT: Carol
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Big Short. Out: Steve Jobs.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Black Mass (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
Other Possibilities:
4. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (+2)
5. Concussion (-1)
6. Mr. Holmes (-1)
7. Legend (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Martian (+2)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Sicario (+1)
The Revenant (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
7. Jurassic World (+1)
8. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Revenant (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (-2)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
Jurassic World (+1)
The Martian (-1)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
7. The Walk (No Change)
8. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Previously Unranked)
9. Everest (-1)
DROPPED OFF: The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (No Change)
8. Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
DROPPED OFF: Inside Out, The Revenant
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“So Long” from Concussion (+1)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (No Change)
“Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
7. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: “Love Me Like You Do”. Out: “Earned It”.
These current predictions reflect the following breakdown of films getting these numbers:
9 Nominations
Mad Max Fury Road
8 Nominations
Carol, The Revenant
6 Nominations
Bridge of Spies, The Martian
5 Nominations
The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl
4 Nominations
The Hateful Eight, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3 Nominations
Room. Sicario, Steve Jobs
2 Nominations
Ex Machina, Inside Out
1 Nomination
Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Black Mass, Cinderella, Concussion, Creed, Far from the Madding Crowd, Fifty Shades of Grey, 45 Years, Furious 7, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunting Ground, Joy, Jurassic World, Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet, Love and Mercy, Shaun the Sheep Movie, Trumbo, Youth
That’ll do it for now, folks! I’ll have my FINAL Oscar predictions up next week…
We begin 2016 with my weekly Oscar predictions leading up to nominations being announced on January 14th. This will mean I’ll have two more posts prognosticating on what and who will be nominated (one on Friday the 8th and one likely the day before the announcements).
A couple of quick notes on various races:
There is considerable speculation as to whether Rooney Mara will be nominated in the category of Best Actress or Supporting Actress for her work in Carol. So far, I’ve speculated a nomination for her in the latter. Today, I am changing it to the former.
Same goes for Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl, but I’m keeping her in Supporting Actress for now. There is also speculation that her nod could come for Ex Machina and not Danish Girl.
The historic box office performance of Star Wars: The Force Awakens is increasing its shot at a Best Picture nomination. I’ve still got it on the outside looking in, but don’t be shocked if that changes in the coming days.
And with that, here’s my weekly predictions that list all possibilities for each race and how they’ve fluctuated since Christmas Day:
Best Picture
Spotlight (No Change)
Room (No Change)
The Big Short (+2)
Mad Max: Fury Road (+2)
Carol (-2)
The Martian (+1)
The Revenant (-3)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+8)
11. Inside Out (-2)
12. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
13. Straight Outta Compton (-2)
14. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
15. Son of Saul (+2)
16. Steve Jobs (No Change)
17. Creed (-2)
18. Sicario (+1)
19. Trumbo (-5)
20. The Danish Girl (No Change)
21. Anomalisa (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight (No Change)
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Ridley Scott, The Martian (+1)
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant (-1)
Todd Haynes, Carol (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam McKay, The Big Short (+1)
7. Lenny Abrahamson, Room (-1)
8. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
9. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight (No Change)
10. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul (+3)
11. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+4)
12. John Crowley, Brooklyn (-2)
13. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation (-2)
14. Ryan Coogler, Creed (-2)
DROPPED OUT: F. Gary Gray, Straight Outta Compton
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (No Change)
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs (No Change)
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl (No Change)
Matt Damon, The Martian (+1)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Johnny Depp, Black Mass (No Change)
7. Will Smith, Concussion (No Change)
8. Steve Carell, The Big Short (No Change)
9. Michael Caine, Youth (+1)
10. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes (-1)
11. Michael B. Jordan, Creed (No Change)
12. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room (No Change)
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn (No Change)
Cate Blanchett, Carol (No Change)
Rooney Mara, Carol (Previously Unranked In This Category)
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (-1)
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You In My Dreams (-1)
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold (No Change)
DROPPED OUT: Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Mara. Out: Rampling.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Sylvester Stallone, Creed (No Change)
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation (No Change)
Christian Bale, The Big Short (No Change)
Michael Shannon, 99 Homes (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael Keaton, Spotlight (-1)
7. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight (+1)
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant (+1)
9. Paul Dano, Love and Mercy (-2)
10. Jacob Tremblay, Room (+1)
11. Benicio del Toro, Sicario (-1)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Shannon. Out: Keaton.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight (+3)
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs (+1)
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl (-2)
Helen Mirren, Trumbo (+1)
Joan Allen, Room (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (+1)
7. Jane Fonda, Youth (-1)
8. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina (Previously Unranked)
9. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria (-1)
10. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Allen. Out: Rooney Mara (moved to Best Actress)
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight (No Change)
Inside Out (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Ex Machina (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Straight Outta Compton (No Change)
7. Love and Mercy (+2)
8. 99 Homes (-1)
9. Son of Saul (-1)
10. Sicario (No Change)
11. Joy (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: Youth
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short (+1)
Room (+1)
Carol (-2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. The Revenant (+2)
8. Beasts of No Nation (-1)
9. Anomalisa (+1)
10. Trumbo (-2)
11. Creed (+2)
12. The Danish Girl (No Change)
13. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Animated Feature
Inside Out (No Change)
Anomalisa (No Change)
Shaun the Sheep Movie (+1)
The Peanuts Movie (+1)
Kahlil Gabran’s The Prophet (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Good Dinosaur (No Change)
7. When Marnie Was There (No Change)
8. Minions (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Cinematography
The Revenant (No Change)
The Hateful Eight (+1)
Mad Max: Fury Road (-1)
Sicario (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Martian (No Change)
7. Son of Saul (-2)
8. Carol (-1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: In the Heart of the Sea
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Bridge of Spies. Out: Son of Saul.
Best Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
The Revenant (+2)
Spotlight (-2)
The Martian (+2)
Steve Jobs (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (Previously Unranked)
7. The Big Short (-4)
8. Bridge of Spies (-1)
9. The Hateful Eight (-1)
10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
11. Carol (Previously Unranked)
12. Room (-3)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Martian. Out: The Big Short.
Best Production Design
Carol (No Change)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (+1)
The Hateful Eight (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cinderella (No Change)
7. Brooklyn (-3)
8. The Revenant (+1)
9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
10. Far from the Madding Crowd (Previously Unranked)
11. MacBeth (-1)
DROPPED OUT: The Martian
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Hateful Eight. Out: Brooklyn.
Best Costume Design
Carol (+1)
The Danish Girl (-1)
Cinderella (No Change)
Brooklyn (No Change)
Far from the Madding Crowd (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (+1)
7. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
8. MacBeth (+1)
9. The Revenant (+1)
10. Suffragette (-4)
11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Far from the Madding Crowd. Out: Mad Max: Fury Road.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (+4)
Black Mass (+1)
Other Possibilities:
4. Concussion (Previously Unranked)
5. Mr. Holmes (+2)
6. The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out of the Window and Disappeared (Previously Unranked)
7. Legend (Previously Unranked)
DROPPED OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol, Star Wars: The Force Awakens (these top seven finalists indicated above have now been announced)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: The Revenant, Black Mass. OUT: The Danish Girl, Carol
Best Sound Mixing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
The Martian (No Change)
Sicario (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Hateful Eight (-1)
7. In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Sicario. Out: The Hateful Eight.
Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road (No Change)
The Revenant (No Change)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (+1)
The Martian (-1)
In the Heart of the Sea (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sicario (No Change)
7. The Hateful Eight (No Change)
8. Jurassic World (No Change)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes.
Best Visual Effects
Mad Max: Fury Road (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Martian (No Change)
Jurassic World (No Change)
Ex Machina (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. In the Heart of the Sea (-1)
7. The Walk (-1)
8. Everest (Previously Unranked)
9. The Revenant (-2)
WHAT’S CHANGED – In: Ex Machina. Out: In the Heart of the Sea.
Best Original Score
The Hateful Eight (No Change)
Bridge of Spies (No Change)
Carol (+1)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-1)
The Danish Girl (No Change)
Other Possibilities:
6. Spotlight (No Change)
7. Steve Jobs (+1)
8. Inside Out (+1)
9. Mad Max: Fury Road (-2)
10. The Revenant (Previously Unranked)
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground (No Change)
“See You Again” from Furious 7 (+1)
“So Long” from Concussion (-1)
“Simple Song #3” from Youth (+1)
“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre (+1)
7. “Love Me Like You Do” from Fifty Shades of Grey (-1)
DROPPED OUT: “I’ll See You In My Dreams” from I’ll See You in My Dreams
WHAT’S CHANGED: No Changes
And there you have it – my latest Oscar predictions and first post of 2016!
Known primarily for directing Will Ferrell comedies (if this wasn’t coming out, you might have thought he’s behind the camera for competitor Daddy’s Home), Adam McKay changes things up with The Big Short, out December 23rd. The comedic drama focuses on the housing crisis from a few years ago and stars heavyweights Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, and Brad Pitt. Other supporting players include Melissa Leo and Marisa Tomei.
The pic has received mostly glowing reviews and it stands at 85% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It stands a very decent shot at a Best Picture nomination. That said, that doesn’t mean Short will come up big in its debut. Even with star power and Oscar buzz, competition over Christmas weekend for adults is fierce (Joy, Concussion). And the last time a critically acclaimed Oscar player focusing on recent events opened, it was Steve Jobs and it flamed out with a $7.1 million opening.
I believe The Big Short is more likely to be a slow burner that could gain momentum if its potential Academy nods pan out. There is a small advantage for it opening on Wednesday, two days before four other titles enter an already crowded Star Wars marketplace. I believe this will just top $10 million for its five day beginning.
The Big Short opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.
For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.
And here we go, my friends:
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out
11. The Big Short
12. Creed
13. Steve Jobs
14. Beasts of No Nation
15. Straight Outta Compton
16. The Danish Girl
17. Son of Saul
18. Anomalisa
19. Trumbo
20. Joy
21. Sicario
22. Love and Mercy
23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol
Other Possibilities:
6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn
10. Ryan Coogler, Creed
11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
12. Adam McKay, The Big Short
13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul
14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
15. David O. Russell, Joy
16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Will Smith, Concussion
8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
11. Michael Caine, Youth
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Other Possibilities:
6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
7. Christian Bale, The Big Short
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
11. Jacob Tremblay, Room
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jane Fonda, Youth
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
8. Joan Allen, Room
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul
Other Possibilities:
6. Love and Mercy
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. 99 Homes
9. Joy
10. Sicario
11. Ex Machina
12. Trainwreck
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. The Martian
8. Anomalisa
9. Beasts of No Nation
10. Trumbo
11. Creed
12. The Danish Girl
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa.
And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…
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