2015’s Mustang and 2019’s Les Miserables are the only two International Feature Film nominees in the past decade from France. Romain Gavras’s Athena hopes to be the next. It will need to overcome mixed reviews and competition from other native pictures. The action drama streams stateside on September 23rd via Netflix and premiered at the Venice Film Festival today. Dani Benssalah, Sami Slimane, Anthony Bajon, and Ouassini Embarek star.
Focused on themes including police brutality, it’s worth pointing out that the positive reviews for Athena are quite positive and it should have its champions for Academy inclusion. Yet the Rotten Tomatoes score is a little troubling at the moment with 63%. France will, of course, need to select it as the hopeful for its international prize. Internal competition could come in the form of Mia Hansen-Love’s acclaimed One Fine Morning or Saint Omer from Alice Diop.
Bottom line: I suspect that RT number may rise, but there’s no guarantee the French will roll with Athena yet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nikyatu Jusu’s directorial debut Nanny first drew viewers earlier this year at Sundance and will be screened in Toronto next week. Anna Diop stars as a Senegalese caretaker working for an affluent NYC family. Their arrangement appears, judging from the trailer, to morph into arthouse horror territory. Costars include Michelle Monaghan, Sinqua Walls, and Morgan Spector.
After its festival run, Nanny is slated for a limited November 23rd theatrical run before its streaming rollout on December 16th via Amazon Prime. Reviews are continuing to pop up as it plays other fests throughout the country and the Rotten Tomatoes score is 90%. It won the US Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance. The last two winners of that award were the Best Picture nominated Minari in 2020 and last year’s CODA which, of course, took home the Academy’s biggest prize. I would also note that the five winners before that came nowhere near a BP nod.
Diop is receiving raves along with appreciation for Jusu’s original screenplay. Nanny would really need some high profile love from critics groups before I’d consider entering this into Academy chatter. It isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but I wouldn’t count on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Love and cannibalism collide in Luca Guadagnino’s Bones and All, which has premiered at Venice before its November 23rd stateside theatrical release. The mix of gore and romance reunites the filmmaker with his Call Me by Your Name star Timothee Chalamet (I will refrain from making any Armie Hammer references from now on). Taylor Russell, who drew raves for the little seen Waves, is co-lead with a supporting cast including Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, and Jessica Harper.
The road movie, based on a 2015 YA novel from Camille DeAngelis, is drawing mostly positive early reaction in Italy. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is a strong 92%. Praise is plentiful for Chalamet (he scored an Oscar nod for Name), but Russell is being called the highlight.
Despite the encouraging buzz, I’m not sure voters will bite for this late 80s set horror tale. Five years ago, Guadagnino’s Name called up four Academy nods including Picture and winning Adapted Screenplay. His 2018 follow-up Suspiria didn’t make a dent with the awards crowd.
MGM/UA would need to mount a major campaign for Russell or Chalamet for them to be viable in my view. I would say Bones‘s best shot could be Adapted Screenplay or perhaps the score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
If you had asked me to guess the Rotten Tomatoes score for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths before its Venice debut today, I probably would’ve needed 55 guesses before I said 45%. Yet that’s where the acclaimed filmmaker’s seventh feature currently stands.
Simply put, that is shocking. Beginning with his debut Amores perros and its nomination for best foreign language pic in 2000, every Inarritu effort has attracted the attention of the Academy. His 2003 English debut 21 Grams landed acting nods for Naomi Watts and Benicio del Toro. 2006’s Babel received seven nominations including Picture and Director. 2010’s Biutiful got mentions in the foreign race and for Javier Bardem in Best Actor. 2014’s Birdman was the biggest breakthrough with nine nods and wins for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay among others. One year later, Inarritu would win Best Director again for The Revenant, which also finally brought Leonardo DiCaprio to the podium in its total of 12 nominations.
So… to put it mildly, anything Inarritu makes is subject to massive awards speculation. Bardo is a return to his native Mexico for a three hour Fellini inspired dramedy. A November 18th theatrical run is planned before a Netflix streaming start on December 16th. It’s said to be based on the auteur’s real life experiences and initial reaction (as evidenced by the early RT rating) is troubling. Indulgent is a common word thus far.
The festival season beginning in Venice and with Telluride and Toronto on deck is just two days old. Bardo buzz is guaranteed to be one of the biggest surprises. In my predictions last week, I had the movie, Inarritu’s direction, and Daniel Gimenez Cacho in Best Actor all ranked 4th. Griselda Sicillani was fifth in Supporting Actress and there’s where I had this for Original Screenplay. It is very possible that it could fall out of contention altogether in each race mentioned when I publish my next update on Labor Day. I am confident I won’t be predicting nominations for any of the above. The largest benefactor to a Bardo collapse could be Park Chan-wook’s Decision to Leave. The heralded Japanese mystery could find itself as the international frontrunner now and more of an option in the BP derby.
A slight word of caution: this is just one festival. Bardo screens in Telluride this weekend and maybe the negative chatter will turn to the positive and it won’t be the non-factor that I suspect it’s become. Even the disappointed critics are singling out Darius Khondji’s cinematography so it could continue Inarritu’s streak of every picture getting some Oscar love. Let there be no doubt, however, as that streak is in serious danger. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Four actresses have won three or more acting Oscars. Katherine Hepburn leads the pack with four while Ingrid Bergman, Frances McDormand, and Meryl Streep are the trio boasting three. Could Cate Blanchett join that elite club with Tár, which has premiered at the Venice Film Festival ahead of its October 7th bow? Based on early reviews, it’s very possible.
The psychological drama, which clocks in at over two and a half hours, is the third feature from Todd Field and his first in 16 years. His previous psychological dramas In the Bedroom (2001) and Little Children (2006) scored a combined 8 Academy nods (five of them for their respective casts). Playing a conductor whose drive borders on insanity, critics are heaping praise on Blanchett and the film itself. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at a clean 100%.
In 2004, Blanchett won her first statue in Supporting Actress for The Aviator in which she played the aforementioned Hepburn. Nine years later, she took Best Actress for Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine. With Tár, a third Oscar could follow nine years after that. Initial reaction is saying this is one of her greatest performances. This would be her 8th nomination overall and first since 2015’s Carol. I would go as far to say that her inclusion in the Actress final five is already close to assured.
What of its other prospects? It’s worth noting that Bedroom and Children both received adapted screenplays nods. This is Field’s first original screenplay in a category that could be jam packed. He helped his cause today with the Venice buzz (and that could include a directing mention as well). That said, even some of the gushing write-ups warn that Tár may not be accessible to mainstream audiences. This could potentially complicate its viability in Best Picture, but it certainly announced itself as a possibility.
I can’t help but think of 2010’s Black Swan from Darren Aronofsky as a comp. The two pics seem to share similar plot themes. It premiered in Italy 12 years ago and eventually received 5 Oscar nods including a win for its star Natalie Portman. Tár would love to follow that trajectory considering Picture and Director were among the quintet of Swan nominations.
Besides Blanchett, supporting actresses Nina Hoss and Noemie Merchant are picking up laudatory ink. I’m guessing Focus Features will mount a campaign for the former yet that remains to be seen. Cinematography and Score are among the chances for tech nods.
Bottom line: it’s hard to imagine Blanchett not being a major force in the Actress field for 2022. How far Tár goes beyond that is more in question. I do think its chances of being in my ten BP picks is better today than it was yesterday. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Can a satire about the apocalypse premiering on Netflix at year’s end contend for a Best Picture nomination? It happened in 2021 for Adam McKay’s Don’t Look Up. Will lightning strike again for the streamer with White Noise, Noah Baumbach’s latest which has opened the Venice Film Festival?
Based on a 1985 Don DeLillo novel that many tagged as unfilmable, Adam Driver headlines the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2019’s Marriage Story (which nabbed 6 Academy nods). Costars include Baumbach’s partner in real life Greta Gerwig, Raffey Cassidy, Andre Benjamin, Sam Nivola, Jodie Turner-Smith, and Don Cheadle. A November 25th limited theatrical rollout is planned prior to the December 30th streaming start.
Early reviews are a bit all over the place. The Tomatoes meter is 78% at the moment. There’s some “ex’s” in the mix like exciting and exhilarating, but also exhausting and exasperating. Some are indicating its ambition is admirable, but it falters in the execution.
Those are some of the same criticisms lobbed at the aforementioned Up, which still managed a slot in the ten BP hopefuls. That could happen with Noise. However, there is a caveat and it’s an important one. Don’t Look Up didn’t go through the film festival circuit and I believe that worked to its advantage. Despite its heavily mixed reaction, it hit Netflix at the end of the year just as awards voters were beginning to consider their ballots. At that time, it was easily the most talked about motion picture in the country. The bulk of Noise‘s chatter is occurring four months earlier.
As for its acting prospects, Driver, Gerwig, and Cheadle are getting solid ink, but I don’t really see them as viable players. If anything, a weak lead actor field (undetermined at the moment) could help Driver. This could land an Adapted Screenplay nod as a reward for it not being the disaster that some feared it might be (this is Baumbach’s first non-original script). Most critics are claiming it’s far from that. And we have a new LCD Soundsystem track titled “New Body Rhumba” that is being praised (we’ll see if Netflix mounts a major Original Song campaign for it). Same goes for Danny Elfman’s score. Tech nods (particularly Production Design) might be doable.
Bottom line: I wouldn’t completely discount that Noise could make just that in awards season though skepticism is warranted. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My final Oscar predictions for the month of August could rightfully be called the calm before the storm. That’s because Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about to blow in screenings for several legitimate contenders. And there’s no doubt it will change the forecasts below.
My plan is to do the next update on Labor Day (ten days from now). By that point, there should be reviews and awards buzz out for Venice pics like White Noise, Tar, Bardo, Bones and All, The Banshees of Inisherin, and Don’t Worry Darling, among others. There’s also anything that plays Telluride over the holiday weekend (expect that to potentially include The Son and Women Talking). My next update should be about a week later.
Those next updates will incorporate the lengthy list of Toronto screenings and late Venice leftovers. That list includes Blonde, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Greatest Beer Run Ever, Empire of Light, The Good Nurse, The Menu, The Lost King, The Woman King, Bros, Chevalier, and more. In other words… buckle up because the Oscar picture is going to be in much sharper focus over the next three weeks!
My Best Picture ten remains the same, but I’ve made a change in Director with Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) in over Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
In Best Actress, there’s a new #1 as I’ve vaulted Cate Blanchett (Tar) to the top spot over Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Yeoh spent only a week in first after she replaced Babylon‘s Margot Robbie, who’s now in third position. We will know in a matter of days whether Blanchett’s promotion is warranted courtesy of Venice.
I’ve switched Micheal Ward’s performance in Empire of Light from supporting to lead. Toronto’s fest should shed light on whether that’s the right call. Due to this, Bill Nighy (Living) falls out of my actor quintet. In Supporting Actor, Babylon‘s Brad Pitt is back in the mix since I’ve taken Ward out. In Original Screenplay, I’m switching in Bardo with The Banshees of Inisherin out.
You can read all the movement below and keep an eye out for lots of individualized prediction posts for the pictures playing in Italy, Colorado, and Canada in the coming weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Son (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 8) (E)
9. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. She Said (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Elvis (PR: 15) (E)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (E)
17. Broker (PR: 20) (+3)
18. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (-1)
19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (+2)
20. Till (PR: 18) (-2)
21. The Menu (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Bones and All (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Living (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 9) (E)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (E)
11. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (+2)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 14) (E)
15. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Helen Mirren, Golda (moved to 2023)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye
Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All
Harry Styles, My Policeman
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (E)
14. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Toby Jones, Empire of Light (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Anthony Hopkins, The Son (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light (moved to Best Actor)
Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bardo (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tar (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bros (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 14) (E)
15. Chevalier (PR: 15) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. She Said (PR: 5) (+1)
5. White Noise (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Living (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bones and All (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (+1)
My blog series continues with speculation on what a Best Picture lineup of five would have looked like in the years since the format changed to up to 10 nominees. That began in 2009 and if you missed my previous posts covering 2009-2012, you can peruse them here:
In our year of 2013, the magic number was 9 contenders. We know that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave would have been included since a win in Best Picture was among its nine nominations. It also took Director, Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o), and Adapted Screenplay. So what else would’ve made the cut? Let’s speculate, shall we?
American Hustle
David O. Russell’s disco era crime pic tied for the most nods with 10, including Director and four acting mentions for Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jennifer Lawrence. Despite the double digit nomination haul, it ended the night with zero victories.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Even with the goose egg, the sheer number of nods indicates making the quintet.
Captain Phillips
With Tom Hanks as the title character in the true life Somali pirate drama, Paul Greengrass’s tense thriller scored 6 overall nods. In addition to Pic, Supporting Actor (Barkhad Abdi), Adapted Screenplay, both Sound races, and Film Editing were in the mix. Like Hustle, there were no wins.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. With no nods for directing or Hanks’s performance (which was a huge snub), I think this would’ve been on the outside looking in.
Dallas Buyers Club
While our first two selections went 0 for 16, this mid 80s set AIDS drama won half of its six nominations – Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Supporting Actor (Jared Leto), and Makeup and Hairstyling. The other two mentions were Original Screenplay and Film Editing.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes, but it’s a close call. The three gold statues put it over the edge in my opinion despite not landing a directing slot for the late Jean-Marc Vallee.
Gravity
Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller tied Hustle with 10 nominations. Unlike Hustle, it won 70% of its possibilities: Director, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. Sandra Bullock was nominated for Best Actress and it got a Production Design nod.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. Even without a screenplay nom, this would’ve been in contention and it was probably the runner-up to Slave considering the Cuaron win.
Her
Spike Jonze’s quirky romantic drama won Original Screenplay and was up for Score, Song, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No because it missed out on key precursors including Director, Actor (Joaquin Phoenix), and Film Editing.
Nebraska
Alexander Payne’s B&W road dramedy nabbed five other nods for direction, Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay, and Cinematography. It didn’t emerge victorious for any.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No, but I struggled with this one (it’s sixth). Film Editing is often the biggest indicator of a BP nom and that’s part of the reason I gave Dallas Buyers Club a slight edge.
Philomena
Judi Dench received a Best Actress nod for this adoption drama. Adapted Screenplay and Score were the other mentions as its four overall are the least of the BP hopefuls.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. The Academy loves Dench. However, that wouldn’t have been enough for this to survive a cut to five.
The Wolf of Wall Street
Martin Scorsese’s raunchy tale of 80s excess landed Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill acting spots. The direction and Adapted Screenplay were up as well. It won none.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes though I will say I don’t think it’s automatic. Wolf‘s complete lack of nominations in the tech categories is a bit of a surprise, but ultimately I don’t think the voters would’ve ignored this.
With the Venice Film Festival less than two weeks away and Toronto and Telluride on its heels, the Oscar races are poised to become clearer quite soon. We are mostly in speculation mode at this juncture, but there’s change afoot in the Actor and Supporting Actor with this latest update.
I have vaulted Bill Nighy (Living) into the top 5 for Best Actor and that removes Adam Driver in White Noise. I’ve struggled with Brad Pitt’s placement in Supporting Actor for Babylon. At this point, it’s not certain whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting. Therefore I have Pitt on the outside looking in for Supporting Actor and that allows The Son‘s Zen McGrath to enter the projected quintet.
While no changes were made in the Picture, Director, the Actress derbies, or screenplay – there’s a new #1 for Best Actress. Since I started my estimates back in April, I’ve had Margot Robbie (Babylon) perched atop the charts. I’m now switching that to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Finally, I’ve dropped David O. Russell’s Amsterdam from contention in all races. The studio’s decision to move it up a month from November to October is something I look at as a bad sign. That’s in addition to it getting no festival screenings, a trailer that didn’t impress, and lingering personal issues and bad press for Mr. Russell.
A final note: at this pre-festival juncture in mid-August of 2021, my predictions yielded seven of the eventual 10 BP contenders.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll likely have one more update prior to August 30th before the festival season is upon us!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Fabelmans (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
6. The Son (PR: 6) (E)
7. Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. She Said (PR: 12) (+1)
12. White Noise (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Elvis (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 17) (E)
18. Till (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bones and All (PR: 18) (-1)
20. Broker (PR: 20) (E)
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Menu (PR: 23) (+1)
23. The Woman King (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Living (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 22) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)
4. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (E)
12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)
13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 13) (E)
14. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Maris Schrader, She Said (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 3) (E)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 9) (E)
10. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 10) (E)
11. Frances McDormand, Women Talking (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Florence Pugh, The Wonder (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Tang Wei, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 3) (E)
4. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 4) (E)
5. Bill Nighy, Living (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)
9. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 10) (E)
11. Christian Bale, The Pale Blue Eye (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Timothee Chalamet, Bones and All (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harry Styles, My Policeman (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)
2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Griselda Sicillani, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Samantha Morton, She Said (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Claire Foy, Women Talking (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michael Ward, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Zen McGrath, The Son (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)
11. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Don Cheadle, White Noise
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Empire of Light (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Decision to Leave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tar (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Menu (PR: 10) (E)
11. Broker (PR: 11) (E)
12. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 12) (E)
13. Bros (PR: 13) (E)
14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Chevalier (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amsterdam
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Women Talking (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Whale (PR: 3) (E)
4. White Noise (PR: 4) (E)
5. She Said (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bones and All (PR: 6) (E)
7. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Living (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Till (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-2)
1994’s 1-2-3 comedic punch of Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and Dumb and Dumber vaulted Jim Carrey from In Living Color small screen MVP to one of the biggest movie stars on the planet. $20 million paydays followed and, four years later, the Canadian phenom entered the awards conversation.
For Peter Weir’s prescient satire The Truman Show, Carrey’s performance mixed the funny with the dramatic for the first time in a major role. Solid box office numbers and impressive reviews followed. Ed Harris was nominated for a Supporting Actor Oscar in addition to Weir’s direction and the original screenplay.
Yet a nod for its headliner was inexplicably left on the cutting room floor. This was even after he won Best Actor (Drama) at the Golden Globes. To be fair, other nominations in the main acting derby featured heavy hitters: Tom Hanks (Saving Private Ryan), Ian McKellen (Gods and Monsters), Nick Nolte (Affliction), and Edward Norton (American History X).
If I had a magic wand, I probably would put Carrey in over the somewhat surprise winner – Roberto Benigni for Life is Beautiful. Nearly a quarter century ago, Carrey’s omission stands as another example of actors known more for laughs coming up short. He still has not managed to get on the Oscar radar and lately his cinematic output has been Sonic the Hedgehog related. The Truman Show, in all reality, should’ve been his contender.
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