Tag: 65

March 17-19 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My Shazam! estimate continues to fall as I’m taking it down from $32.9M to $27.9M. Also bumping Scream VI from $16.6 to $17.6M and Creed III from $15.4M to $16.5M

Shazam! Fury of the Gods will keep the run of sequels in first place going at the box office, but it could deliver a so-so start. The DCEU follow-up to 2019’s original is the only wide release of the weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Box Office Prediction

Zachary Levi’s superhero hopes to top the $53 million earned by its predecessor four years ago. I have it falling about $10 million shy of that mark in the low 40s which would be considered a letdown. This is especially true considering the recent franchise best starts for the Creed and Scream series. ***Blogger’s Update (03/15): Two days before its premiere, I have significantly lowered my estimate from $42.9M to $32.9M

Speaking of, it could be a close race for #2 between Scream VI and Creed III. The former slashed it way to a terrific debut (more on that below). Given its genre, a hefty sophomore decline is likely while Creed III may not suffer a steep drop.

A ginormous fall will probably greet 65 after the premiere. Adam Driver’s battle with dinosaurs managed only a C+ Cinemascore grade which means word-of-mouth may cause a second weekend percentage plummet close to its title number. It should be in a tight battle with Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania for fourth position.

Here’s how I envision that top 5 looking:

1. Shazam! Fury of the Gods

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

2. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

3. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

4. 65

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

Box Office Results (March 10-12)

Scream VI needed to pass the $34 million earned by Scream 3 in 2000 to achieve the franchise’s high mark. It did so easily with $44.4 million, just edging my $42.6 million call. With a B+ Cinemascore (same as last year’s Scream which was Scream 5 and just not called that), audiences are liking what they’re seeing. As mentioned, it should still see a dip in the high 50s to low 60s range.

Creed III fell a respectable 53% to second with $27.2 million, punching past my $25 million take. The threequel from director and star Michael B. Jordan has amassed $101 million in ten days on its way to becoming the largest earner of the trilogy.

65 was third with $12.3 million. While that beats my $10.7 million prediction, that’s a meager beginning considering its reported large budget. Per above, expect this to become extinct quickly.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania was fourth with $7.1 million compared to my $6.5 million estimate. The MCU adventure is approaching the double century club at $198 million. It might barely outpace its predecessor from 2018.

Cocaine Bear rounded out the top five with $6.2 million. My prediction? $6.2 million! The three-week total is $51 million.

Sports comedy Champions with Woody Harrelson kicked off in sixth with a blah $5.1 million. I said it would make… $5.1 million! The good news is its A Cinemascore and it will hope for small percentage losses in the frames ahead.

Finally, Jesus Revolution was seventh with $5.1 million and I said… (you guessed it!) $5.1 million. The three-week gross is $39 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: 65

Adam Driver often turns up in prestige pics with awards buzz, but 65 is a rare exception. The prehistoric action thriller comes from directors Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who wrote A Quiet Place. That acclaimed feature nabbed a Sound Editing nom back in 2018. The 65 buzz is rather silent and it could be a big budget flop for Sony.

With a 25% Rotten Tomatoes rating, most critics are far from impressed. Yet with its lead battling dinosaurs, tech races like Sound and Visual Effects could be in the mix. Not so fast. Even the creatures are being called subpar versions of what the Jurassic Park/World franchise have given us. And if all the Jurassic follow-ups couldn’t achieve VE nominations, there’s no real chance for 65 to make noise anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

March 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Ghostface terrorizes NYC in Scream VI, Adam Driver fights dinosaurs in 65, and Woody Harrelson is ordered to coach a basketball team with intellectual disabilities in Champions. They are the newcomers hitting screens this Friday and my detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Scream VI Box Office Prediction
65 Box Office Prediction
Champions Box Office Prediction

Just as Creed III smashed its franchise best record this past weekend (more on that below), Scream VI could be poised for the same. To do so, it would need to slash past the $34 million achieved by Scream 3 in 2000. I’m projecting it will do so with room to spare.

Creed III should fall to second in round 2. A mid to high 50s decline could give it a clean $25 million after its fantastic start.

65 appears likely for a third place start. Yet I’ve got the dino action pic barely topping $10 million. Considering its reported $90 million price tag, that would be a troubling premiere for the Sony property.

I’m not anticipating much out of Champions and my estimate ties it with the third frame of Jesus Revolution. That would mean holdovers Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Cocaine Bear would be in a close contest for the four and five spots.

Here’s how I envision it looking:

1. Scream VI

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Creed III

Predicted Gross: $25 million

3. 65

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

4. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

5. Cocaine Bear

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

6. Jesus Revolution

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

7. Champions

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

Box Office Results (March 3-5)

The month of March began with a potent punch at multiplexes as Creed III amassed $58.3 million. I way lowballed it at $39.2 million. Marking the directorial debut of its star Michael B. Jordan, it easily outpaced its predecessors. For context – Creed II, over the five-day Thanksgiving frame in 2018, made $55 million. In a month filled with potential blockbusters, the return of Adonis a promising pace.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania fell to second after two weeks on top with $12.8 million. I was more generous at $14.6 million. The 60% drop was another troubling development for the threequel. Its total is $187 million.

Cocaine Bear was third with $11.1 million in its sophomore outing compared to my $13.2 million take. The 52% decline isn’t too shabby for its genre as the ten-day tally is $41 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village started in line with expectations in fourth with $10.1 million. I was close with $9.8 million. Expect a hefty dip in the range of 70% or more coming up.

Jesus Revolution rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $8.4 million. I had it raised higher at $11.3 million. The $30 million two-week gross remains rock solid.

Finally, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre re-teaming Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham meekly rolled out in seventh with $3.1 million (I said $4 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

65 Box Office Prediction

The writers of A Quiet Place are hoping to make some noise at the box office when 65 opens on March 10th. Scribes Scott Beck and Bryan Woods handle directorial and scripting duties for the sci-fi thriller. The number refers to “million years ago” as pilot Adam Driver becomes stranded on Earth where dinosaurs roam and attack. Costars include Ariana Greenblatt, Chloe Coleman, and Nika King.

Reportedly made for a substantial price tag of over $90 million, 65 risks hefty losses for Sony. Buzz seems to be muted and theaters could be a quiet place where it’s playing. Some potential viewers may be distracted by Scream VI debuting against it. It also may not help that this isn’t based on known IP and that Driver, while certainly an acclaimed actor, isn’t a box office draw.

I’ll say this manages to top double digits, but not by much.

65 opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million

For my Scream VI prediction, click here:

Scream VI Box Office Prediction

For my Champions prediction, click here:

Champions Box Office Prediction