Tag: 300: Rise of an Empire

Box Office Predictions: March 21-23

Two new entries should take the two top spots at the box office this weekend as Divergent and Muppets Most Wanted debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/divergent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/16/muppets-most-wanted-box-office-prediction/

Prognosticators have Divergent debuting anywhere from $50 million to over the $70 million that Twilight achieved in 2008. My estimate reflects going towards the higher end of the scale though I believe it’ll reach just short of Twilight heights.

Muppets Most Wanted could debut with $30 million or more, but my prediction reflects a belief that it will open below its predecessor from 2011.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Mr. Peabody and Sherman may fall more in its third weekend than its second due to Kermit and company. 300: Rise of an Empire and Need for Speed should suffer healthy falls in their third and second weekends, respectively.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Divergent

Predicted Gross: $68.4 million

2. Muppets Most Wanted

Predicted Gross: $22.8 million

3. Mr. Peabody and Sherman

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Need for Speed

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 59%)

Box Office Results: March 14-16

The story of the weekend was the lackluster openings of both new films – Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club. Their failure to reach their intended audiences allowed Mr. Peabody and Sherman to rise to the top in its second weekend with $21.8 million, slightly ahead of my $20.4M projection.

300: Rise of an Empire fell to second in its sophomore frame with $19.2 million – in line with my $18.8M estimate.

Need for Speed disappointed bringing in a weak $17.8 million, well below my $25.3M estimate. The film proved one more example of a popular video game failing to generate audience excitement.

Non-Stop was fourth with $10.6 million – holding up stronger than my $8.2 million prediction.

In fifth with disastrous results was Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, which represented the star’s worst debut ever for a picture he directed. It earned only $8 million, far below my $17.6M estimate. While Perry is finding success on the OWN Network with his television programs, his film career is clearly losing its luster.

As always, I’ll have full results Monday when the final numbers roll in. Stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: March 14-16

It’s not often that there are four pictures that have real shots at being #1 in a weekend, but we have one such weekend this time around. This list includes Need for Speed and Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club in their debut frames and 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman in their sophomore weekends.

You can find my individual prediction posts on the newcomers here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/need-for-speed-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/tyler-perrys-the-single-moms-club-box-office-prediction/

I believe Need for Speed will appeal to enough of the Fast and Furious crowd to get it to the top while Single Moms Club will continue the trend of Perry flicks coming in slightly below expectations. Still either one could over or under perform and make it a race for number one.

Add to that the fact that Mr. Peabody and Sherman is likely to have a fairly small drop and it could be a real barnburner of a race. And there’s last weekend’s #1 300: Rise of an Empire. While I expect the sequel to fall pretty hard in weekend #2, if it doesn’t – it too could contend for the top spot. Non-Stop, in its third frame, should round out the top five.

And with that, here’s my predictions for the how it all shakes out:

1. Need for Speed

Predicted Gross: $25.3 million

2. Mr. Peabody and Sherman

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 58%)

4. Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

5. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

Box Office Results (March 7-9)

While I did pretty well on numbers 2-5 for the weekend, I vastly underestimated the staying power of the 300 franchise with its sequel Rise of an Empire. The film took in a healthy $45 million, well above my $31.1M projection. While it was miles away from the original’s $70 million premiere, this still exceeded most prognosticator’s expectations.

The animated Mr. Peabody and Sherman opened in second with $32.2 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. This was a mid-level opening for an animated feature, but it should have solid legs in the weeks ahead.

Non-Stop took third in weekend #2 with $15.8 million – in line with $15.5M prediction while The LEGO Movie was fourth with $10.9 million, a bit below my $12.5M estimate. Rounding out the top five was Son of God, which fell hard in its second weekend to $10.3 million, under my $11.9M prediction.

As always, I’ll have final results for this coming weekend on Monday. Stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: March 7-9

Family audiences and action fans are the target audiences this weekend as the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire premiere in theaters. It is likely to be a very tight race between the two pics for the #1 spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Peabody edging out 300, but truth be told – it could easily go either way. As for holdovers, I would expect last weekend’s champ Non-Stop to lose a little less than half its audience. On the other hand, Son of God seems like the type of movie that is frontloaded with its target audience primed to see it during weekend #1. Therefore I expect a drop of over 50%. The competition from Peabody should cause the smash hit LEGO Movie to have its biggest drop yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

3. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

The results from this past weekend represent what I believe is my best weekend of predictin’ in the history of the blog (pat on back). Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop took top honors with $28.8 million – right in line with my $28.2M estimate. At 61, Neeson is still proving himself to be one of the most bankable action stars in the world.

Son of God was runner-up with an impressive $25.6 million, just below my $26.7M prediction. In third after three weeks at #1 was The LEGO Movie with $20.8 million – on pace with my $20.5M projection. The four spot was Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill in its sophomore weekend with $4.9 million, in line with my $5.1M estimate.

The only place I went wrong was not including The Monuments Men in the top five. It took the five spot with $4.9 million. I had Robocop in fifth but it was sixth my $4.5 million (on par with my $4.6M prediction).

So kudos to me for the weekend! Let’s see if my predictions for this upcoming frame are anywhere close.

I’ll have final results on the blog a week from today.

300: Rise of an Empire Box Office Prediction

300: Rise of an Empire is a big question mark as it arrives in theaters this Friday. Will the sequel bring in a large audience almost exactly seven years after the original was a surprise smash?

Zack Snyder’s 300 shocked prognosticators in 2007 with a gargantuan $70 million debut on its way to a $210 million domestic total. The conventional wisdom is this follow-up won’t come close to that kind of performance and I agree with that. Seven years is a long time between sequels and I’m skeptical that there’s massive pent up anticipation for this.

Having said that, the name brand alone should get it beyond the $30 million mark for an opening. I say should because I’m still a little unsure. A $25 million debut wouldn’t shock me… and that would considered a pretty major letdown for Warner Bros. This was originally scheduled to premiere last summer, but was pushed back. The original director Snyder returns as producer and cowriter with Noam Murro taking over behind the camera duties. Newcomers to the franchise Sullivan Stapleton and Eva Green headline with holdovers from the first Lena Headey and Rodrigo Santoro costarring.

300 should find itself in a battle with the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman for #1. This could certainly capitalize on the goodwill that the first generated and blast past $40 million. However, I’m going towards the low end of predictions and saying it just gets passed the $30M range.

300: Rise of an Empire opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million

For my Mr. Peabody & Sherman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/