Best Picture 2016: The Final Five

We have reached 2016 in my posts speculating on a specific piece of Oscar history. As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted for two years and in 2011, it switched to anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic numbers for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set ten.

What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed at a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut? If you missed my write-ups centered on 2009-15, you can peruse them here:

Best Picture 2009: The Final Five

Best Picture 2010: The Final Five

Best Picture 2011: The Final Five

Best Picture 2012: The Final Five

Best Picture 2013: The Final Five

Best Picture 2014: The Final Five

Best Picture 2015: The Final Five

We know one thing for sure – Moonlight from Barry Jenkins is in. As you may recall, it had to wait a tad longer to win Best Picture when an envelope mishap caused Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway to wrongly proclaim La La Land as the voters choice.

As for the 8 other hopefuls (including La La), here’s my take on which half of them would have made the dance.

Arrival

Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi drama tied Moonlight for the second most nods at 8. In addition to BP, the director and adapted screenplay were nominated along with tech mentions in Sound Editing (where it won), Sound Mixing, Production Design, Cinematography, and Editing. On the flip side, star Amy Adams was omitted in Best Actress. It stands as one of the most surprising acting snubs of the past decade.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No, but I’ll admit I went back and forth here. There’s certainly an argument to be made that it gets in due to the high number of nominations. However, the Actress snub and it not making the Golden Globe five for Drama make me more comfortable leaving it out. **As a side note – I didn’t let my personal take on it interfere as it’s probably my favorite picture of 2016.

Fences

Denzel Washington starred and directed this adaptation of the August Wilson play. Washington landed an Actor nom while costar Viola Davis won Supporting Actress. The Adapted Screenplay was also up.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Had it materialized in Director, I might think twice but this was probably 7th at best of the nine contenders.

Hacksaw Ridge

Mel Gibson made a filmmaking comeback in the World War II drama. He was up for his direction and Andrew Garfield earned a Best Actor spot. It won Sound Mixing and Film Editing and was up for Sound Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. Despite its screenplay not being mentioned, the Editing victory puts it in for me. In the 21st century, the winner of the race has missed BP exactly once (2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo).

Hell or High Water

Taylor Sheridan is best known these days for co-creating TV’s hit Yellowstone. He earned an Original Screenplay nod for this neo-Western that was also up for Supporting Actor (Jeff Bridges) and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No. Director David Mackenzie wasn’t up and the 0 for 4 showing is a sign the final five wasn’t reachable.

Hidden Figures

Theodore Melfi’s true life look at African-American female mathematicians at NASA during the 1960s was a gigantic hit – blasting off to $170 million domestically. Besides BP, Octavia Spencer was up for Supporting Actress as was the Adapted Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

No in spite of its box office. Of the nine nominees, it got the smallest number of noms and took home zero. It was also missed the Golden Globe and Critics Choice lists.

La La Land

Damien Chazelle won Best Director for his musical and Emma Stone was crowned Best Actress. The total number of nominations was 14 – which tied All About Eve and Titanic for the most ever. Other victories were Score, Song, Cinematography, and Production Design. The other mentions were Actor (Ryan Gosling), Original Screenplay, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Costume Design, and Film Editing.

Does It Make the Final Five?

A big and obvious yes. When Dunaway accidentally proclaimed it BP, no one was surprised since it was the frontrunner. It was very likely the runner-up in votes.

Lion

Garth Davis’s drama finds Dev Patel searching for his birth parents and it found its way to five other nods for Patel in Supporting Actor, Nicole Kidman for Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score, and Cinematography. It did not win any of them.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. I will admit that this could be a stretch and Arrival might be the pick of others. I just think that there would have been enough sentiment for this one to make the final cut even without directing and editing mentions.

Manchster by the Sea

Kenneth Lonergan got a directing nod for this grief filled drama and Casey Affleck won Best Actor. Lucas Hedges and Michelle Williams were up for the supporting derbies while Lonergan won Original Screenplay.

Does It Make the Final Five?

Yes. The screenplay and Actor wins solidify this and it was probably third of the five behind Moonlight and La La Land.

Therefore my projected 2016 five is:

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

2017 is next!

2016: The Year of Casey Affleck

Nearly a decade ago, Casey Affleck received a Supporting Actor Oscar nomination for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It was that same year in 2007 that he starred in his brother Ben’s well-received directorial debut Gone Baby Gone and appeared for the third time in Oceans Thirteen as part of that blockbuster trilogy.

Since then, Affleck’s career has been a mix of smaller flicks like Ain’t Them Bodies Saints and Out of the Furnace with supporting roles in studio fare like Tower Heist and Interstellar. He also made a strange excursion into directing with the Joaquin Phoenix “documentary” I’m Still Here.

His 2016 started rather unremarkably with two pics that came and went – The Finest Hours and Triple 9. Yet it was that same time early in the year that word came out from Sundance about Manchester by the Sea, Kenneth Lonergan’s drama about grief and family. And the word was quite impressive.

At the close of 2016, Manchester stands as a serious awards contender with its star assured a nomination for Best Actor. It is likely it will come down to Affleck and Denzel Washington (Fences) for the win. The former has already picked up a number of critics prizes for his most acclaimed role thus far. He closed out the year by hosting the “Saturday Night Live” Christmas show, including a very amusing bit involving Dunkin Donuts.

The Sundance Film Festival next month will showcase Affleck’s next project – A Ghost Story alongside Rooney Mara. Who knows what that will bring, but it certainly kickstarted a supremely lauded year for Affleck this year.

2016: The Year of Viola Davis

After a number of smaller film roles in some notable pictures ranging from Out of Sight to Far From Heaven to Syriana, it was another smaller role that catapulted Viola Davis to the attention of moviegoers in 2008. Her one scene in Doubt alongside Meryl Streep and Amy Adams earned the actress a Supporting Actress Oscar nomination. She didn’t win, yet it furthered some more substantive roles including 2011’s The Help for which she received a Lead Actress Academy nod (losing to Streep in The Iron Lady).

Yet in 2016, the third time could well be the charm for Davis for her supporting work in Fences, in which she reprises her Broadway role with director/star Denzel Washington. It’s all part of a remarkable couple of years for Davis in which she deservedly gets a mention in my Year Of posts. Her work in Fences and expected Oscar win would come just a year after becoming the first African-American actress to win Lead Actress in a Drama Series at the Emmys for ABC’s “How to Get Away with Murder”. Davis also had a prominent role in this summer’s blockbuster Suicide Squad, portraying the government agent responsible for getting all those bad guys together.

Film and TV lovers have been noticing Viola Davis for some time now and 2016 may well prove to be the year where Oscar voters finally do.

My Year Of posts will continue…

2016: The Year of Margot Robbie

Before this year, Margot Robbie was primarily known as Leonardo DiCaprio’s stunning wife in 2013’s The Wolf of Wall Street and, to a lesser degree, costar to Will Smith in 2015’s Focus.

Yet it was in 2016 that she blew up big time, as the Aussie actress was perhaps the best thing in two summer flicks – The Legend of Tarzan and especially Suicide Squad, in which she teamed up with the Fresh Prince once again. Her Harley Quinn character in Squad was a bright spot in a mixed bag of an experience.

Robbie’s considerably larger star power has led to her being attached to a slew of upcoming roles. She will eventually reprise her Harley role in Gotham City Sirens, which will pair her with other notable female DC super villains such as Poison Ivy and Catwoman. She’s also signed to portray notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in biopic I, Tonya.

No doubt about it – this screen bad girl had a very good 2016.

My Year Of 2016 posts will continue…

2016: The Year of Ryan Reynolds

Over the years, Ryan Reynolds has seen his share of hits in multiples genres from rom coms (The Proposal) to action flicks (Safe House). He’s also earned the kudos of critics for appearing in acclaimed indie product such as Woman in Gold, Buried, and Definitely, Maybe.

Reynolds has also had his share of flops, from R.I.P.D. to Self/less to name some recent ones. And while they weren’t necessarily big financial disappointments, he also had the distinction of appearing in two comic book adaptations that aren’t well-regarded: 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine and Green Lantern. It was in Wolverine where he costarred with Hugh Jackman as Wade Wilson, better known as raunchy superhero Deadpool. Again, this wasn’t met with much approval from comic book lovers.

For years, Reynolds fought hard to make a version of Deadpool the way he wanted to and finally got his wish in 2016. The result? Well, the aftermath easily earns him a place among performers who had a sterling year. Deadpool opened in February to an astonishing $132 million and an eventual $363 million domestic haul. The pic is easily the actor’s largest grosser ever. It had the largest opening ever for an R rated feature and is second all-time for pictures with that rating (just behind The Passion of the Christ). Additionally, it is 2016’s current #5 earner. And he earned a Golden Globe nomination for his work.

So… yeah, the gamble paid off for Reynolds in a way that was unimaginable just a year ago. Naturally, we will see a sequel in 2018 yet Mr. Reynolds will have a busy 2017 as well. In March, he costars with Jake Gyllenhaal in the outer space thriller Life and in August he headlines action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Samuel L. Jackson and Gary Oldman.

For 2016, the massive Deadpool juggernaut gave Reynolds his likely signature role and a different kind of superhero tale that was tremendous fun.

My 2016 “Year Of” posts continue tomorrow…

2016: The Year of Disney

Towards the end of each calendar year, I’ve put up posts honoring the people who have captured our movie going attention during that time period. 2015 was the first year that I honored a feeling in one post as opposed to an individual. Last year, it was Nostalgia and it fit due to the box office potency of titles like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Jurassic World, among others.

In 2016, the initial posting is again not a human, but a studio. And it’s Disney. The Mouse Factory has set the all-time record for studio grosses in a calendar year and its list of blockbusters is something to behold.

Currently, Disney is responsible for half of the top ten grossing pictures of the year and that list will grow to six very shortly with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Let’s break it down: Finding Dory ($486 million) is #1 with Captain America: Civil War ($408M) at second. Rogue is likely to join the top three for a Disney trifecta atop the year.

#4 is The Jungle Book ($364M). #6 is Zootopia ($341M) and #9 is Doctor Strange ($226M). Moana is sitting at #11 right now with $162M.

In short, the studio is making a killing on their three most valued properties: animation and the live-action adaptations of them, Marvel Studios, and the Star Wars franchise. That is bound to continue in 2017 with animated features like Cars 3 and Coco. As for the live-action remakes, expect March’s Beauty and the Beast to do boffo business. On the Marvel side, we have Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnorak. And of the Star Wars juggernaut, we have Episode VIII (still untitled) invading theaters in December.

Of course, not everything Disney released this year was a smash. There were high-profile flops like Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG. Also, Pete’s Dragon did decent business, but nothing compared to its other renderings of the animated classics. In 2017, a big question mark is whether or not they can successfully reinvigorate another once popular series with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.

Those few disappointments aside, it was a watershed year for Disney and they deservedly get the first mention in my year end honors.

My 2016 posts will continue tomorrow…

16 for ’16: Todd’s Most Anticipated Fall Movies

As the 2016 summer movie season winds down – it’s time to start thinking of the leaves changing, football (both real and fantasy), and yes – the fall slate of movies heading our way from September to December!

By most accounts, it has been a rather ho-hum summer at the multiplexes. Let’s hope the autumn frame picks things up a little. A few things are certain: the pictures being released in the final third of this calendar year will almost surely make up the bulk of Oscar-bait material. There has been very little that has counted as that in the first eight months. We have plenty of contenders and some of them are in this here list.

I decided to pick out my personal 16 most anticipated titles of what’s coming to us. This is also an exciting time of the year as my “Oscar Watch” posts are certain to increase as the major film festivals (starting with Toronto and Venice in a matter of weeks) begin to showcase some of the Academy hopefuls.

Here are 16 for ’16 titles that have piqued my interest for the rest of the year:

The Accountant

Release Date: October 14

Ben Affleck sheds the Bat-suit for this thriller from Warrior director Gavin O’Connor. Batfleck plays a math savant mixed up in some secret government activity and the stellar supporting casts includes Anna Kendrick and J.K. Simmons.

Allied

Release Date: November 23

Robert Zemeckis directs what sounds like an old-fashioned romantic thriller. It’s set in the WWII era in Casablanca and is headlined by Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard.

Arrival

Release Date: November 11

Prisoners and Sicario director Denis Villenueve delves into sci-fi territory with this alien tale featuring Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, and Forest Whitaker.

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Release Date: November 11

Acclaimed director Ang Lee has won two Oscars and his latest is a war drama based on a bestseller. Expect this to garner Oscar buzz. The cast includes newcomer Joe Alwyn in the title role, as well as Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Chris Tucker, and Vin Diesel.

Doctor Strange

Release Date: November 4

After a somewhat middling 2015 with the Avengers sequel and Ant-Man, the Marvel Cinematic Universe got back on track with this summer’s Captain America: Civil War. Let’s see if the introduction of Benedict Cumberbatch’s title character continues the momentum. Scott Derrickson directs with a supporting cast including Rachel McAdams, Chiwetel Ejiofor, and Tilda Swinton.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Release Date: November 18

Will audiences flock to the return of Harry Potter world sans Harry Potter? It’s a pretty safe bet as J.K. Rowling’s novel comes to life in this fantasy starring Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne.

The Founder

Release Date: December 16

Michael Keaton has been on a roll lately (both 2014’s Birdman and 2015’s Spotlight won Best Picture). Expect this biopic, in which he plays McDonald’s founder Ray Croc, to also order up Academy Awards talk. John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directs.

The Girl on the Train

Release Date: October 7

This mystery thriller from The Help director Tate Taylor should give star Emily Blunt an Oscar-bait type role, just a year after her acclaimed turn in Sicario. Based on a bestselling novel, it’s no accident that its release date is the same as Gone Girl from two two years ago.

La La Land

Release Date: December 2

Damien Chazelle made a major splash two years ago with his Oscar nominated Whiplash. His follow-up is a musical featuring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and J.K. Simmons. It’s screening at the Venice Film Festival in a couple of weeks in hopes of beginning its Academy talk.

The Magnificent Seven

Release Date: September 23

Denzel Washington reunites with his Training Day and The Equalizer director Antoine Fuqua in this Western remake that also features red-hot Chris Pratt and Ethan Hawke.

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children

Release Date: September 30

He’s been hit or miss lately, but anything from the mind of Tim Burton immediately inspires hope. The dark fantasy, based on a bestseller and starring Eva Green, Asa Butterfield, Judi Dench, and Samuel L. Jackson, looks right up his alley.

Passengers

Release Date: December 21

This space thriller from The Imitation Game maker Morten Tyldum unites the box office powers of Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. Let’s get a trailer for this already!

**No trailer at press time

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Release Date: December 16

You may have heard of it. Gareth Edwards, who made the good Godzilla movie of the last few years, directs the latest Disney epic set in a galaxy far, far away. The events here take place between the events of Episodes III and IV with a plot to steal plans for the iconic Death Star. Felicity Jones, Forest Whitaker, and Diego Luna join this fabled cinematic universe… and James Earl Jones returns (!!) to voice a certain famed villain.

Rules Don’t Apply

Release Date: November 23

It’s been nearly 16 years since Warren Beatty appeared on the silver screen and 18 years since he’s directed. He’s back with this comedic drama in which he plays billionaire Howard Hughes. The supporting casts includes his wife Annette Bening, Lily Collins, Alden Ehrenreich (soon to be young Han Solo), Matthew Broderick, and Alec Baldwin.

Silence

Release Date: Undetermined (probably December)

No firm release date has been set for Martin Scorsese’s latest – a historical drama set in Japan. Yet it’s likely to earn a 2016 release for Oscar consideration. Andrew Garfield, Liam Neeson, and Adam Driver star.

*No trailer at press time

Sully

Release Date: September 9

Coming off the biggest hit of his incredible career American Sniper, Clint Eastwood directs the real-life tale of the “Miracle on the Hudson” with Tom Hanks in the title role. Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney costar.

And there you have it! There’s plenty of other intriguing films coming our way in these next four months and readers of this blog know that I’ll be reviewing, box office predicting, and evaluating the Oscar chances on them! Stay tuned…

16 for ’16: Todd’s Most Anticipated Movies of 2016

With 2015 by the wayside, it’s time to focus on the upcoming releases for the New Year and that means listing my 16 most eagerly awaited features! Obviously, I’m going by pedigree alone pretty much and not buzz (I’ll note that Fantastic Four made my 2015 cut, if that tells you something).

2016 appears to be jam packed with both sequels and superhero pics. Just to give you an idea, here’s some sequels that didn’t make the cut: Zoolander No. 2, London Has Fallen, Ride Alone 2, The Divergent Series: Allegiant, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, Rings, Barbershop: The Next Cut, The Huntsman Winter’s War, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, The Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Finding Dory, Independence Day: Resurgence, Ice Age: Collision Course, The Purge 3, Bridget Jones’s Baby, Underworld 5, Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, Ouija 2, Bad Santa 2, and Inferno (the third Tom Hanks Robert Langdon flick). As for comic book related fare, X-Men: Apocalypse, Doctor Strange, and Gambit didn’t make the list of sweet 16.

Others that closely missed the cut: The Jungle Book remake from director Jon Favreau; The Magnificent Seven remake with Denzel Washington, Chris Pratt, and Ethan Hawke; and Jodie Foster’s political thriller Money Monster starring George Clooney and Julia Roberts.

So what DID make it? Here’s my alphabetical list:

Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Never mind that the trailer looks like a bit of a mess. And maybe ignore that Zack Snyder’s Man of Steel was a major mixed bag. This “sequel” brings Ben Affleck’s Caped Crusader in to fight with Henry Cavill’s Supes with Wonder Woman joining the party as well, in addition to Jesse Eisenberg’s Lex Luthor. The curiosity factor alone allows it to make this list. (March 25)

The BFG

This fantasy adventure has some seriously impressive pedigree: it’s based on Roald Dahl’s book and the screenplay is written by the late Melissa Mathison, who penned E.T. The director? Steven Spielberg. ‘Nuff said. (July 1)

Captain America: Civil War

The second Captain America pic, 2013’s Winter Soldier, ranks high in pantheon of MCU titles and this third go round is basically a quasi-Avengers experience with Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, and our new Spider-Man Tom Holland joining the mix. (May 6)

Deadpool

Our third comic book adaptation sounds in many ways to be the most intriguing (save for one a little further down this list). Deadpool casts Ryan Reynolds (whose superhero movie history include a pretty bad Green Lantern flick) in this hard R rated pic infused with comedy and its trailers inspire hope. This is said to tie in with the X-Men franchise at some future juncture. (February 12)

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Based on J.K. Rowling’s novel and from Harry Potter director David Yates comes this return to the world of wizardry that stars Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne. Warner Bros. is anticipating at least a trilogy out of this. (November 18)

The Founder

From the director of The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks comes this biopic of McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc, played by Michael Keaton. Don’t be surprised to see this one surrounded by Oscar buzz. (November 25)

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

Ghostbusters

Bridesmaids and Spy maker Paul Feig reboots the famous 80s franchise with Melissa McCarthy, Kristin Wiig, and current SNL castmates Leslie Jones and Kate McKinnon. (July 15)

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

Hail, Caesar!

Anything from the Coen Brothers is worthy of my anticipation and this 1950s Hollywood set comedy features George Clooney, Josh Brolin, Scarlett Johansson, Jonah Hill, Tilda Swinton, Channing Tatum, and Ralph Fiennes. (February 5)

The Nice Guys

A little over a decade ago, screenwriter/director Shane Black started off Robert Downey Jr.’s improbable comeback with the hilarious action comedy Kiss Kiss Bang Bang before move onto direct Iron Man 3. This 70s set action comedy looks extremely promising and stars Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling. (May 20)

Passengers

Little is known about this sci-fi romance from The Imitation Game director Morten Tyldum. Yet it is headlined by mega-stars Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt. I’m in. (December 25)

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Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

The Force Awakens just became the biggest domestic grosser of all time (in under four weeks) and this December brings the first spin-off, taking place between episodes III and IV. It focuses on a team of rebels tasked with stealing the plans for the Death Star and is directed by Gareth Edwards, who made 2014’s effective Godzilla reboot. This should rule the holiday season in 2016. (December 16)

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

Silence

Like the Coens, anything from Martin Scorsese is worthy of inclusion and this historical epic focused on Jesuit priests in Japan stars Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson. (No Release Date at Press Time)

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

Star Trek Beyond

J.J. Abrams has exited the franchise as director to concentrate on a different one while Justin Lin (maker of four Fast and Furious entries) takes over. Let’s see if he keeps the momentum Abrams brought fourth speeding along. (July 22)

Suicide Squad

This is my most anticipated comic book adaptation of the many in 2016. Fury director David Ayer gathers a group of super villains together to hopefully do some good. The cast includes Will Smith, Margot Robbie, and Jared Leto as The Joker. The trailer is terrific. (August 5)

Sully

Clint Eastwood follows up his cultural phenomenon American Sniper with this biopic of the pilot who famously landed on the Hudson, with Tom Hanks in the title role. Another pic that could be ripe for Oscar bait. (September 9)

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

Untitled Bourne Film

When Jeremy Renner stepped in for Matt Damon for this celebrated action franchise, audiences reacted with mostly ambivalence. So Damon is back, paired with Paul Greengrass, director of the winning second and third pics in the series. Tommy Lee Jones and Alicia Vikander costar. (July 29)

NO TRAILER AT PRESS TIME

And there you have it! We’ll see you at the movies in 2016 and I hope this helped you a little bit…