Star Trek Into Darkness Box Office Prediction

Before JJ Abrams moves onto making another beloved sci-fi franchise that begins with the word “Star”, the director is following up his massively successful restart of another beloved franchise with Star Trek Into Darkness, opening Thursday.

In the summer of 2009, Star Trek reinvigorated a slumping franchise to the tune of a $257 million domestic gross. The film’s reputation has only seemed to grow in the past four years. The sequel sees Chris Pine and Zachary Quinto return as Kirk and Spock and the marketing campaign has been heavy. With Iron Man 3 entering its third weekend, Darkness is poised to make a splashy #1 debut.

Against smaller expectations four years ago, Star Trek debuted to a very impressive $75 million in its first weekend. It would stand to reason that the sequel’s opening gross will be bigger. Plus it opens on Thursday, so the four-day gross alone as opposed to the original’s three should be greater.

The question is: just how much bigger will it open? While audiences certainly liked what they saw in 2009, it’s a legitimate point to wonder just how many new viewers will turn out the first weekend. The Trekkie fan base certainly grew with Abrams taking over the series and it exposed many younger moviegoers to Captain Kirk’s world.

While I believe the Friday to Sunday portion of Darkness‘s take will exceed $75 million, it may not exceed it by a whole lot, especially with the Thursday debut when die-hard Trekkies will rush out to see it.

So – what’s the ceiling here? I’d say $120 million is not unreasonable for the four-day take. Once again, I’m tempted to go there. Yet, ultimately, I believe a Friday to Sunday take in the mid-80s in addition to a high teens to low twenties Thursday gross is more possible.

In just two years, JJ Abrams will direct the breathlessly awaited seventh episode of the Star Wars franchise. He should definitely be coming off a sizable hit with Star Trek Into Darkness as he begins work on that picture in England.

Star Trek Into Darkness opening weekend (including Thursday) prediction: $106.2 million

On Wednesday, I’ll predict the weekend’s Top Five which includes the second frame of The Great Gatsby and Tony Stark’s third weekend.

Movie Perfection: Moneyball and The Crack of the Bat

The 2011 Bennett Miller directed hit Moneyball is one of the better sports flicks of the 21st century and it contains one particular scene that qualifies as Movie Perfection.

Based on a true story, the picture focuses on Billy Beane (Brad Pitt in an Oscar nominated performance), owner of the Oakland A’s baseball franchise. When the team loses its big free agents to richer teams like the Red Sox, Billy buys into the team building ideas of Peter Brand (Jonah Hill, also Oscar nominated). The theory relies not on marquee names, but solely on which players stats lead to wins. This is met with skepticism from manager Art Howe (Philip Seymour Hoffman) and many others.

After some initial difficulty with the new format, an interesting thing begins to occur: The A’s start winning. And winning. And winning. So much so that they win 19 in a row and are going for a record-breaking 20. Billy is a rather superstitious fellow who doesn’t attend the games. The significance of a potential record-breaking moment draws him to the event after the A’s go up 11-0 and appear assured for history. What happens? The Kansas City Royals make a furious comeback and tie the game 11 all. Billy retreats back to the locker room.

And then – history is made! Scott Hatteberg, a player that no one but Billy wanted, steps up to the plate. We see the pitcher release the ball and then…

Crack!

What follows is a scene that is amazingly directed and edited. What I love most it is that, even to the most casual moviegoer, it brilliantly demonstrates the importance of not just editing, but also sound effects editing.

We hear the sound of the crack followed by the reactions of Billy, Peter, and Art. The music swells. The team celebrates. And Billy has his own moment of unbridled joy – something he doesn’t allow himself to do often. I’m not an Oakland A’s fan. Truthfully, I’m not even much of a baseball fan. However, during this scene, I am an Oakland fan and a baseball fan. I’m a fan because this scene is so well put together and features such well-written characters that you can’t help but be a fan.

I’m a fan of the movie Moneyball. And this scene is total Movie Perfection. I get goosebumps every time I see it.

Mother’s Day Movie Tribute

Today we celebrate all the great mothers out there with our phone calls, Facebook messages, and tweets. And, today on the movie blog, I take a brief trip down film history lane bringing you the best and worst when it comes to mothers…

Or “mamas” with Sally Field’s wonderful performance as mama to Forrest Gump…

There’s the single mom doing her best to better herself and her children’s lives, like Julia Roberts as Erin Brockovich…

There’s the teenage mom who comes to learn the joys of motherhood like Ellen Page as Juno…

And there’s the always supportive mom who, even when she doesn’t agree with her kids actions, still loves them unconditionally, like Frances McDormand in Almost Famous:

This brings to the moms in film history representing the dark side of motherhood. There’s the overprotective mom as shown by Piper Laurie in Carrie:

There’s the mom whose wild ambitions for her children screw them up for life, like Meryl Streep in The Manchurian Candidate:

Of course, there’s also just the completely crazy moms who hate wire hangers, like Faye Dunaway as Joan Crawford in Mommie Dearest:

And, finally, well there’s this mom:

So here’s hoping your mama is more like Forrest Gump’s and less like Norman Bates’s! And Happy Mother’s Day to all the Forrest Gump-like mamas in the world, including my wonderful mother!

Box Office Results: May 10-12

Well, when you’re wrong – you’re wrong and I was all kinds of wrong in multiple ways this weekend with my box office predictions. I didn’t give some movies enough credit and for others, I gave them way too much credit.

As expected, Iron Man 3 remained at #1 in its sophomore weekend, but fell further than I predicted. The Tony Stark adventure grossed $72.5 million for a 58% drop. I predicted it’d do $83.9M and experience a smaller decline. Still, IM3 is still poised to be the biggest earner of the summer and possibly the year.

The Great Gatsby outperformed nearly all expectations, including my own. The Leo DiCaprio flick grossed a terrific $51.1 million, well above my $41.3M projection. With a so-so B Cinemascore grade, Gatsby could experience hefty declines in coming weekends, but it’s still the only pic out there marketing towards the female audience.

I was way off with Tyler Perry Presents Peeples. I figured Perry’s name alone would bring in his audience. That did not happen. I predicted a solid opening of $18.5 million. Peeples was a total bomb, earning only $4.9 million for a fourth place showing. Whoops. With a weak B- Cinemascore grade, expect Peeples to be presented to DVD in short order.

Pain and Gain was third in its third weekend with $5 million, above my $3.3M projection. 42 was fifth with $4.7 million, higher than my $3.6M prediction.

Not a great weekend of predictin’ this time around, but I’ll try to do better tomorrow when I make my projection for next weekend’s big opener, Star Trek Into Darkness. My full Top Five predictions come Wednesday on the blog. Stay tuned!

Jack Reacher Movie Review

A list actor Tom Cruise dives into B pulp movie territory with Christopher McQuarrie’s Jack Reacher, a film with style to spare but plenty of flaws to go along with it.

Reacher is based on a series of novels by Lee Child, which I’ve never read. Apparently the character in the novel is 6’5″, which is a bit of a stretch for Tommy boy who is like 4’3″ in real life (give or take). When a group of five random people are gunned down by a sniper in Pittsburgh, the arrested perp instructs defense attorney Helen (Rosemund Pike) to “get Jack Reacher”. Turns out Reacher is an ex-military cop who has a history with the arrested party and doesn’t believe the shooting massacre is as open and shut as the evidence suggests.

The picture follows Cruise along on his investigation to get to the truth. Per usual, no one can be trusted, from the detective heading the case (David Oyelowo) to the district attorney (Richard Jenkins) who happens to be Helen’s dad. There’s also a shadowy character named The Zec (Werner Herzog), a Russian gangster and his band of thugs.

For a good portion of Reacher‘s running time, McQuarrie keeps us intrigued with his polished direction and often effective B movie dialogue. McQuarrie has some credibility in this field as the screenwriter of 1995’s B movie classic The Usual Suspects (he also co-wrote Cruise’s solid 2008 thriller Valkyrie).

However, the plot of Reacher ends up not being terribly engrossing. The character of The Zec is a truly fascinating one who is given virtually no screen time, but famed German director Herzog makes the most of his limited role. None of the other supporting performances are bad but they’re not memorable either. I had to rack my brain trying to remember what else I’d seen Rosemund Pike in. Turns out she was a Bond love interest in the worst 007 flick ever, Die Another Day. She didn’t leave much of an impression there and she doesn’t here either.

By the time Robert Duvall shows up as a grizzled old Ohio gun range owner who helps Jack out, I found myself reaching for my cell phone to check the time. Duvall’s role is ultimately kinda pointless and seems written in simply to reunite the stars of Days of Thunder.

This is Cruise’s show and he acquits himself nicely. While he may not resemble the character in the books, Cruise is first-rate and believable in the role. McQuarrie and Cruise hold our attention for quite a while, but Jack Reacher turns out not worthy of its bloated 130 minute running time. If you’re a Cruise fan, I’d recommend a view just to see something a little different from the star. Be prepared to be a little disappointed though, as I was.

**1/2 (out of four)

2013 Summer Movie Preview: Epic, Turbo, and Planes

There is certainly no shortage of flicks this summer geared towards the family audience, including five animated features competing for dollars.

The top two earning animated pics are likely to be sequels that were already covered in a previous post, Monsters University and Despicable Me 2. There’s also the computer animated Smurfs sequel.

Kiddos will have three other animated features to choose from as well. Epic (May 24) comes from 2oth Century Fox and features the voices of Colin Farrell, Beyonce, Josh Hutcherson, and Christoph Waltz. Animated features set in forests have a checkered history… remember 1992’s Ferngully? No?

Still, Epic has the advantage of being out of the gate first and could do respectable business while nowhere near the numbers of Monsters or Despicable.

Turbo (July 17) comes from Dreamworks in a tale about a snail who wishes to become the fastest snail in the world. Featuring the voices of Ryan Reynolds, Michael Pena, Maya Rudolph, Paul Giamatti, and Snoop Lion (not used to that yet), Turbo will not be the fastest earning feature this summer, but good word-of-mouth could propel it to respectable grosses.

Lastly, Planes (August 9) is from Disney Toons and is a spin-off of the successful Cars franchise. It was originally intended for direct-to-DVD release before the studio changed their mind. Disney will make most of its dough with the Monsters Inc. sequel this summer, but moving Planes to theaters will probably be a profitable venture. The flick features the voices of Dane Cook, Brad Garrett, and Cedric the Entertainer.

The 2012 Summer Movie Preview will continue soon with horror flicks. Stay tuned!

Gangster Squad and Broken City Movie Reviews

January is typically seen as a dumping ground for films that studios have little confidence in. When a picture opens in the first month of the year with big stars, that can usually be seen as a red flag. And so it is with Gangster Squad and Broken City, which both opened in January to disappointing box office results. Audiences got it right here – they’re both forgettable titles that don’t deserve the considerable talent involved.

Gangster Squad is from Zombieland director Ruben Fleischer and takes place in Los Angeles circa 1949 when gangster Mickey Cohen (Sean Penn) has taken over the city with his particularly deadly Mob tactics. A straight-laced Sergeant (Josh Brolin) is enlisted by the police chief (Nick Nolte) to form a squad to take Mickey out and restore order at any cost. Brolin enlists lots of recognizable actors to help in the cause, from Ryan Gosling to Giovanni Ribisi to Michael Pena to Robert Patrick to Anthony Mackie.

The pic is a highly stylized exercise whose tone is closer to The Untouchables than other genre entries. The difference? The Untouchables was really good and effective. Squad feels unoriginal and derivative. Sure, it looks good, but you won’t remember much about it the morning. Most of the actors try their best, but they have skimpy material to work with.

Among the issues I had: we get a romance between Gosling’s character and Mickey’s girlfriend, played by Emma Stone. As you will recall, Gosling and Stone had major chemistry in 2011’s romantic comedy Crazy Stupid Love. Here, their relationship is underwritten and dull and it left me wishing I was watching their previous movie. Sean Penn, one of the finest actors of his generation, goes way over the top as Mickey. Also, his make-up job is pretty ridiculous. Brolin’s character is a bit of a bore and ultra cliched. He even comes with the pregnant wife whose character is straight outta Screenwriting 101.

Gangster Squad wants to bash us over the head with its excessive violence, but never bothers to give us interesting, well-written characters to get involved with. Director Fleischer showed tremendous promise with the original Zombieland. This movie doesn’t have an original idea or thought in its head.

Gangster Squad: ** (out of four)

Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe headline Broken City from director Allen Hughes (who co-directed Menace II Society and From Hell with his brother). The city is New York City, where Wahlberg is an ex-cop turned private eye who’s hired by the corrupt Mayor (Crowe) to find out who his wife is sleeping with days before the Mayoral election. This leads to your usual double crosses and instances where “not all is at it seems!”.

The first hour or so of City is decent if unremarkable. Eventually, the screenplay moves toward twists and turns that rely on BIG and unbelievable conveniences, like Wahlberg finding key pieces of evidence in a dumpster where the rest of the documents are being shredded. Thank goodness they forgot to shred the most important piece of evidence!

Like Squad, the characters are poorly developed. Wahlberg’s story arc is a familiar one – he’s a cop who may or may not have shot an unarmed suspect. He had a drinking problem… wanna take bets on if he relapses? He’s conflicted about doing the right thing, yada, yada, yada…

Crowe adds some decent acting to an otherwise unremarkable character. Catherine Zeta-Jones doesn’t have much to do as his neglected wife, who may or may not be having an affair.

Broken City fails mostly because of a lackluster screenplay. Wahlberg and Crowe deserve better and director Hughes has certainly shown an ability to do far better.

Broken City: ** (out of four)

So the January curse holds true for these pictures. Are they both watchable? Sure, but with lots of end of 2012 titles just reaching home release and the summer season beginning at the multiplex, why waste your time? I just did that for you!

Iron Man 3 Movie Review

Iron Man 3 is essentially competing against two expectations from previous pictures. First, the general feeling (one I agree with) is that Iron Man 2 was a bit of a letdown. Second, the general feeling (which I also adhere to) is that last summer’s The Avengers was pretty frickin’ awesome.

So where does Tony Stark/Iron Man go from here? In Iron Man 3, the character goes into the hands of director/co-writer Shane Black. Jon Favreau directed the first two installments and he reprises his role as Tony’s former bodyguard Happy. But it’s Black who now inherits the franchise. For those who don’t know, Black is best known as the screenwriter of action extravaganzas such as Lethal Weapon and The Last Boy Scout. In 2005, he made his directorial debut with Kiss Kiss Bang Bang, a terrific action/comedy that starred… Robert Downey Jr.!

Shane Black’s contributions give Iron Man 3 a different feel than what we’ve seen previously. It’s darker in tone yet it also has a comedy spirit at times that works well. Black is a great writer and his work here shines. We also delve a bit deeper into Stark as a person. A lot of the action the character is involved in this time around is accomplished without Tony wearing the Iron Man suit. Furthermore, Gwyneth Paltow’s character Pepper is given more to do – she even gets to don the suit!

While Mickey Rourke ended up being a fairly blah villain in the second flick, this time around we have Sir Ben Kingsley as evil terrorist The Mandarin. It’s pretty much impossible to describe Kinglsey’s character without revealing major spoilers. I will say this: Kingsley is fantastic in the role and he will be the character you’ll probably talk about the most. Guy Pearce gives an effective performance as another villain… again, can’t talk too much about him due to spoilers.

I won’t get into the plot details of Iron Man 3 – I mean, you’re gonna see it anyway if you haven’t already. Bottom line: Iron Man 3 is not quite on the level of the first for me, but it’s a definite improvement over #2. Downey is brilliant as always in the title role and I particularly enjoyed his rapport with Harley (Ty Simpkins), a kid who Tony befriends.

The film doesn’t attempt to outdo the grandeur of The Avengers and that’s just fine. It feels like a smaller film – at least small compared to Avengers. It may not rank at the very top of the best superhero movies, but Iron Man 3 is well worth seeing and kicks off summer 2013 in good manner.

Iron Man 3 is solid enough that I certainly hope Downey doesn’t abandon the role. My guess is that he won’t. And I also hope Shane Black returns for a fourth installment. His presence is a welcome addition to the Marvel world.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: May 10-12

The second weekend of the 2013 Summer Box Office season continues with two new entries, The Great Gatsby and Tyler Perry Presents Peeples. 

On Monday, I wrote an extensive post outlining my Gatsby prediction which can be read here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/06/the-great-gatsby-box-office-prediction/

Yesterday, Tyler Perry Presents Peeples got the similar blog prediction treatment which can be read here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/07/tyler-perry-presents-peeples-box-office-prediction/

The new films are highly likely to open at numbers 2 and 3 over the weekend. There is really no doubt that last weekend’s champ Iron Man 3 will remain #1 by a wide margin. The big question is: how far will it drop? The Marvel adventure had the second largest opening weekend of all time with $174.1 million. Its opening is second only to last summer’s The Avengers, which debuted with $207 million and dropped 50% in its sophomore frame. That’s a terrific hold for such a gargantuan debut and Disney/Marvel would love to see a similar hold here. With a great “A” Cinemascore grade, a drop of only half could occur, though I’ll predict it falls a little bit more.

The top five is likely to be rounded out by holdovers 42 and Pain and Gain. With that, my predictions for this weekend’s Top Five:

1. Iron Man 3

Predicted Gross: $83.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

2. The Great Gatsby

Predicted Gross: $41.3 million

3. Tyler Perry Presents Peeples

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million

4. 42

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Pain and Gain

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)

As always, updates will be posted on the Facebook page on Saturday with final results Sunday on the blog.

And if you think I’m wrong about the Gatsby and Peeples openings, I invite you to check out http://www.boxofficeace.com where you can compete against me with your own predictions.

2013 Summer Movie Preview: The Great Gatsby, Only God Forgives, and More

With all my box office predictin’ and such, I’ve slacked off a bit on my 2013 Summer Movie Preview. So far, I’ve covered sequels, action flicks, comedies, sci-fi entries, franchise hopefuls like The Lone Ranger and The Mortal Instruments, and superhero movie restarts Man of Steel and The Wolverine.

Tonight, I turn to films that are a bit harder to categorize. I begin with Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby, the fourth adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel that stars Leo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire. It opens this Friday and I’ve already written about it extensively in my box office prediction post from yesterday. You can find that here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/06/the-great-gatsby-box-office-prediction/

This brings me to what could be my most personally awaited release this season: Nicolas Winding Refn’s Only God Forgives, out July 19th. Refn is the director of Drive, one of my favorite pictures of the last decade. Forgives re-teams the director with star Ryan Gosling in a tale that involves Thai boxing and a twisted criminal family. I’m trying my best not to know too much about it before I see it because I want to experience it like I witnessed Drive. That basically means I didn’t know much and was pleasantly, very pleasantly, surprised. Refn has proven himself to be one of the most exciting directors working today and I’m hopeful Forgives delivers on his promise he showed two years ago. Simply put, the potential is there for this to be all kinds of awesome.

On May 31st comes Now You See Me, a caper flick from The Incredible Hulk director Louis Letterier. Starring Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, and Morgan Freeman, the plot involves magicians who get mixed up in heists. I gotta say, the trailers make Now seem like it could be fun, though I wonder whether this relatively small pic will break out in a season filled with would-be blockbusters.

One of the more curious titles to emerge this summer is Much Ado About Nothing (June 7). It is an ultra low-budget black&white adaptation of Shakespeare’s play that was shot in the director’s home in less than two weeks. The catch? That director is Joss Whedon, who also made something called The Avengers last summer. Whedon decided to go in a completely different direction here before he jumps on board with the breathlessly awaited Avengers sequel.

Sofia Coppola has proven herself to be a terrific director with such memorable pictures as The Virgin Suicides and Lost in Translation. On June 14th comes The Bling Ring, starring Emma Watson as a member of a group of thieves who prey on starlets like Lindsay Lohan. Bling is based on a true story and this one has real breakout potential, especially due to its ability to target the often-neglected female audience this season.

Inception and Dark Knight Rises star Joseph Gordon-Levitt makes his directorial debut with Don Jon, out in August. Gordon-Levitt plays a womanizer whose ways begin to change when he meets two women, played by Scarlett Johannson and Julianne Moore. He’s proved himself to be a fine actor over recent years and it will be interesting to see if Gordon-Levitt’s talents translate to behind the camera. NO TRAILER AVAILABLE AT PRESS TIME.

Finally, Amanda Seyfried stars in Lovelace, a biopic about Deep Throat porn star Linda Lovelace. This could be the type of role that garners Seyfried major critical attention, as long as its decent. NO TRAILER AVAILABLE AT PRESS TIME.

No porn star biopics in my next entry of the Summer Movie Preview as I’ll preview titles geared towards family audiences. Stay tuned!