The Hangover Part III Box Office Prediction

Memorial Day weekend may answer the following question at the box office: Are moviegoers beginning to tire of the Wolf Pack?

Bradley Cooper, Zach Galifianakis, and Ed Helms return in The Hangover Part III, which opens on Thursday. Two years ago over the same weekend, the second Hangover installment earned an astonishing $135 million over the Thursday-Monday holiday period. This time around, there’s a key difference. While the first Hangover was a beloved comedy where audiences couldn’t wait for the gang to return, the sequel (while a huge hit) was met with a more mixed reaction. Due to this, the chances of #3 posting a similar debut weekend seems unlikely.

And then there’s the competition factor. In 2011, The Hangover Part II‘s opened against Kung Fu Panda 2, which was obviously going after a different audience. Now the Wolf Pack faces some serious competition in the form of Fast and Furious 6. I honestly was surprised when the decisions were made to open these titles against each other as I believe it will negatively effect numbers for both. Both Hangover and Furious are going after the younger male audience.

A fair comparison to what I believe could happen to this franchise is the Fockers trilogy with Robert De Niro and Ben Stiller. Audiences loved the original and were eager to see the second. The first sequel, Meet the Fockers, made a huge $279 million. By the time the third entry Little Fockers came around, audiences had begun to tire of the series and it only made $148 million. The first Hangover stormed multiplexes in summer 2009 with $277 million. The second in 2011 made $254 million. I don’t expect the third time to be the charm. It also doesn’t help that the trailers really haven’t been very funny.

Of course, there will be plenty of moviegoers ready to welcome the Wolf Pack back. I just don’t believe it will approach past entries. I’m actually more worried that my five-day prediction might be a little too high with Vin Diesel and company competing against it. And there’s also the second weekend of Star Trek Into Darkness, even though it opened lower than expectations. Maybe I’m wrong that audiences are giving up on this franchise, but that’s the feeling I get.

The Hangover Part III opening prediction: $77.4 million

Yep, that’s a full $58 million less than the second film’s take just two years ago and would be considered a pretty major disappointment.

Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll make my prediction for Fast and Furious 6. Stay tuned!

Box Office Results: May 16-19

Star Trek Into Darkness had a surprise opening at the box office this weekend with a softer than expected debut. Most prognosticators (including yours truly) estimated the sequel to the 2009 hit would gross over $100 million over the Thursday to Sunday frame. My exact prediction was $106.2M.

It didn’t go down that way. Darkness earned $84.1 million, not much higher than the three day opening of the original four summers ago. This has got to be a letdown for Paramount when one of their summer tentpoles opens a full $20 million below expectations. Still, an A Cinemascore grade could forecast nice legs ahead, even though there is fierce competition coming next weekend.

Other titles came in just a bit below my predictions. Iron Man 3 was second with $35.2 million (I projected $37.3M). In its second weekend, The Great Gatsby took third with $23.4 million (I estimated $25.6M). Pain and Gain was fourth with $3.1 million (I went with $3.4M). I incorrectly estimated 42 would be fifth with a $3.3 million gross. It came in sixth with $2.7 million, making The Croods fifth with $2.8 million.

Starting tonight on the blog, I’ll have prediction posts for the three big debuts for Memorial weekend. This evening – my prediction for The Hangover Part III. Tomorrow – Fast and Furious 6. Tuesday – the animated feature Epic. Stay tuned!

50 Best Saturday Night Live Celebrity Impersonations: Part Five

Well, here we are! 40 entries have been posted on the blog and that leaves…

The Top Ten

Let me simply state that compiling this list was not easy and it was especially hard to decide what impressions made the final cut and especially the Top Ten. This just goes to show the rich history of SNL and its amazing performers. And now a confession: a particular entry was written down on my master list and somehow I didn’t circle the name for inclusion on the list. Good news is: the impression would probably be right where I’m listing it… so we’ll call #10 1/2. Without further adieu, here’s my personal Top Ten (and a half):

10 1/2: Will Ferrell as James Lipton

Ferrell’s classic take on the “Inside the Actors Studio” host comes complete with Lipton’s heightened sense of himself and the overly “actor-y” pompousness. And you can’t beat the huge stack of blue note cards.

10. Jimmy Fallon as Barry Gibb

The future “Tonight Show” host and the great Justin Timberlake gave us one of the best series of sketches in the SNL cannon. Fallon’s portrayal as Barry Gibb as a character who loses his s**t if someone says the wrong thing is unforgettable.

9. Dana Carvey as President George H.W. Bush

Carvey’s take on Bush 41 isn’t going for accuracy, but instead the terrific Carvey goes way over-the-top in hilarious fashion. Wouldn’t be prudent… not at this juncture! Not gonna do it!

<div style=”font-size:12px;”><a href=”http://www.metacafe.com/watch/400999/dana_carvey_as_bush/”>Dana Carvey As Bush</a> – <a href=”http://www.metacafe.com/”>Click here for more free videos</a></div>

8. Will Ferrell as Harry Caray

Hey!!! Cubs win!!! Ferrell’s impression of the legendary sports announcer is side splitting fun and totally bizarre in the best way.

7. Darrell Hammond as Vice President Al Gore

Had Al Gore won the 2000 election, Darrell Hammond’s spot-on impersonation might rank even higher because we would’ve seen more of it. Still, this is one of the greatest impressions in SNL history. Lock box.

6. Darrell Hammond as President Bill Clinton

Hammond strikes again in the political world. Phil Hartman’s take on Bubba ranked high as well, but the edge goes to Hammond’s take, which got the 42nd President’s mannerisms down to a tee.

5. Dana Carvey as Ross Perot

As much I love his Bush impression, Carvey’s Ross Perot is even more genius. The 1992 debate with Carvey playing Bush and Perot, alongside Hartman’s Clinton, is one of the top sketches period.

4. Eddie Murphy as James Brown

A perfect impression per usual from Murphy, but his James Brown ranks highest due to the Hot Tub sketch… a Top Ten SNL skit.

3. Fred Armisen as Governor David Paterson

Inappropriate. Edgy. And also absolutely tears streaming down your face uproarious. Armisen boldly made his impression about the ex-New York Governor’s blindness. And damn it was funny.

2. Will Ferrell as President George W. Bush

Ferrell’s impression of the #43 is so legendary that he did a full Broadway show as Dubya. No matter what side of the political fence you’re on, his impersonation is the top Presidential entry in a show full of wonderful ones.

1. Tina Fey as Sarah Palin

No other impression became the cultural phenomenon than Fey’s take on the 2008 Vice-Presidential contender. As soon as Governor Palin burst onto the scene in fall 2008, everyone knew it would be Tina doing her on SNL. Expectations were high and Fey came through and then some. When all is said and done, very few historical write-ups about Palin won’t mention Tina. And for that… Tina Fey’s Palin earns the #1 spot.

And there you have it! 50 terrific SNL celebrity impersonations from the most important comedy show ever.

50 Best Saturday Night Live Celebrity Impersonations: Part Four

It’s getting more difficult! We’ve reached the Top 20 of the Top 50 best SNL cast member celebrity impressions. Here are numbers 20-11 before we reach the Top Ten in part five of this five-part series:

20. Martin Short as Katherine Hepburn

Marty Short is a comedic genius and his one season on SNL was a wonderful one. His Kate Hepburn is probably my favorite of many.

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/digital-shorts/video/kate-and-ali/1351153/

19. Phil Hartman as Phil Donahue

Hartman’s take on the daytime talk show host was spot-on and also had the advantage of being in a brilliant sketch. It’s worth noting that Darrell Hammond also did a great Donahue years later.

18. Phil Hartman as President Ronald Reagan

The Hartman love continues with the performer’s clever take on Reagan. When he was in public, he was the affable, soft-spoken leader we all know. Behind the scenes – he was a tyrant. “Back to work!!!”

17. Eddie Murphy as Little Richard Simmons

This impression makes it high on the list due to the genius notion of combining Richard Simmons and Little Richard into one character in a hilarious sketch.

16. Will Ferrell as Janet Reno

“It’s Reno time!” Ferrell killed it with his macho take on Clinton’s Attorney General.

15. Phil Hartman as Frank Sinatra

Joe Piscopo had a nice take on the Chairman of the Board as well, but it’s the master Phil Hartman whose Sinatra is SNL’s best.

14. Dana Carvey as John McLaughlin

“Issue 2!!!” Carvey nailed roundtable show host McLaughlin in a series of fabulous sketches.

13. Phil Hartman as President Bill Clinton

The scene with Hartman playing the President in McDonald’s talking to regular people is one of the best SNL sketches ever and it cements Hartman’s Slick Willie as a high placer on the list. We may not be finished with the 42nd President however…

12. Dana Carvey as Johnny Carson

Carvey’s uncanny impression of the late night legend gave us a series of laugh out loud sketches.

11. Darrell Hammond as Sean Connery

Hammond’s exaggerated take on the original Bond came as part of the Jeopardy sketches that are among the best in the program’s long history.

And there you have it… we have ten entries left! Stay tuned for the Top Ten coming to the blog page very soon…

50 Best Saturday Night Live Celebrity Impersonations: Part Three

Part Three of my favorite SNL cast member celebrity impressions covers numbers 30-21 as we get closer to the cream of the crop. Here we go:

30. Martin Short as Jerry Lewis

The incredibly talented Short was only on SNL for one season, but he certainly made the most of it. His Jerry Lewis is terrific.

29. John Belushi as Elizabeth Taylor

Belushi isn’t really remembered for impressions, even though he did a wicked Liz Taylor, as well as an accurate Joe Cocker.

28. Will Ferrell as Robert Goulet

Ferrell’s makes his debut on the list with his totally bizarre take on Robert Goulet.

27. Dan Aykroyd as President Jimmy Carter

Aykroyd’s Carter marks the first but not the last Presidential impersonation on the list. His Carter was pretty spot-on. The original cast member also did a memorable sketch where he played chef Julia Child. Darrell Hammond would also play Carter in a funny Barry Gibb sketch alongside Fallon and Timberlake.

26. Bill Hader as James Carville

Hader is leaving SNL after eight years and I believe he’s been the best thing about the show for a while. A great impressionist, his Carville is a masterpiece.

25. Dana Carvey as Regis Philbin

“I’m outta control!!!” Carvey’s Regis isn’t much more exaggerated than the actual subject and it’s a trip.

24. Kristin Wiig as Kathie Lee Gifford

Speaking of Regis, how about Kristin Wiig’s boozed up and wonderful take on Kathie Lee Gifford’s “Today” show hosting duties?

23. Billy Crystal as Sammy Davis Jr.

Like Martin Short, Crystal was only on for one season. His Sammy Davis Jr. is fabulous.

22. Chevy Chase as President Gerald Ford

Ford was the sitting POTUS when SNL debuted and original cast member Chase got the assignment. He made no attempt to look like Ford, instead hilariously focusing on the President’s clumsiness. This is the first, but not last example of an SNL portrayal affecting public perception of the leader of the free world.

21. Eddie Murphy as Stevie Wonder

Murphy’s debut on the list is one of many uncanny impressions the superstar can do. His Stevie is unforgettable.

Stay tuned for Part Four and numbers 20-11!

50 Best Saturday Night Live Celebrity Impersonations: Part Two

Continuing on with my personal favorite “Saturday Night Live” cast member celebrity impressions, I now bring part two and #s 40-31:

40. Andy Samberg as Mark Wahlberg

Known more for his digital shorts like “Dick in a Box”, Samberg also unleashed a killer Marky Mark impression that had him communicating with a chicken. “Say hi to your mutha for me”.

39. Cheri Oteri as Barbara Walters

Oteri’s take on “The View” host was a riot as she constantly name dropped celebrities and world leaders.

http://www.zimbio.com/watch/kwqyzAD-ZwF/Walters+Lewinsky+Cold+Opening/Saturday+Night+Live

38. Dana Carvey as Charles Grodin

Carvey’s first and far from last appearance on the list. The master impressionist’s take on actor-writer Grodin was hilarious.

37. Chris Farley as Tom Arnold

Victoria Jackson did a nice Roseanne impersonation, but it was the late, great Farley that was the highlight with his manic and accurate portrayal of Roseanne’s ex-hubby.

36. Maya Rudolph as Whitney Houston

Rudolph nailed Houston’s flaky and drugged out personality to a tee, often running out of breath after singing only a couple lines of her best-known hits. Rudolph’s Oprah Winfrey impression also merits consideration on the list, but her Whitney won out.

35. Norm MacDonald as David Letterman

Joe Piscopo did a good Letterman as well, but it’s Norm who gave the best Dave impression. MacDonald had fun with Dave’s habit of repeating jokes and Chris Kattan also provided funny moments as Paul Schaffer. Norm’s Burt Reynolds and Larry King also were considered for the list.

34. Ana Gasteyer as Martha Stewart

It didn’t hurt that Gasteyer kinda looked like Stewart, but her impression was much more than that. Her Martha Stewart take was often bizarre but always hilarious. One sketch had Martha addressing her audience topless.

33. Taran Killam as Brad Pitt

With Bill Hader, Fred Armisen, and Jason Sudeikis leaving the show, I believe Killam is poised to be the show’s new breakout star. He’s done Brad Pitt a couple times on the show and his accuracy impersonating the actor is uncanny.

32. Phil Hartman as Ed McMahon

“You are correct, sir!” Hartman’s appearance has the performer brilliantly serving as sidekick to Carvey’s Carson.

31. Dana Carvey as Tom Brokaw

The spot-on impression that we expect from Carvey, his Brokaw also happened to belong in an uproarious sketch where the anchor is taping announcements for future broadcasts. This includes Gerald Ford being killed by a pack of wolves and Brokaw coming out of the closet.

And there’s Part Two, my friends. Check back soon for the third installment covering numbers 30-21!

50 Best Saturday Night Live Celebrity Impersonations: Part One

Hard to believe but in two years, “Saturday Night Live” will be officially over the hill when it celebrates its 40th anniversary. In that time, we’ve seen countless cast members impersonating celebrities and political figures. This gave me the idea to compile my personal Top 50 Best SNL Impressions. I’ll roll them out in five parts starting with numbers 50-41 and so on. If you’re an SNL fan, I hope you enjoy these posts and please feel free to tell me where I’m wrong, where I’m right, and who I left off. Without further adieu:

50. Kevin Nealon as Brent Musberger

Sometimes a simple little touch can make an impression hilarious. And Kevin Nealon taking his fingers to make his eyes smaller makes his take on sports analyst Brent Musberger genius.

49. Fred Armisen as Queen Elizabeth

Armisen, who leaves SNL after this season, did a brilliant take on the Queen. She’s the delicate and proper lady you would expect while at official functions, but a little different behind the scenes. She sounds more like a Sex Pistols band member behind the curtain. Great stuff.

48. Abby Elliot as Angelina Jolie

Elliot nails her Angelina impression, portraying her as someone whose curious nature goes into overdrive at the mention of the word “baby”.

47. Phil Hartman as Admiral James Stockdale

The incomparable Hartman makes his debut on the list with his unforgettable take on Ross Perot’s 1992 running mate. Funny thing is, Hartman’s performance as Stockdale wasn’t much more exaggerated than the actual guy in the debate.

46. Darrell Hammond as Chris Matthews

First time you’re seeing Hammond’s name, but it certainly won’t be the last. We’ll start with his spot-on impression of the “Hardball” host.

45. Jon Lovitz as Harvey Fierstein

Lovitz’s nailed the flamboyant actor and playwright and started a catchphrase at the time: “Is that so wroooooooong?!?!?”

44. Fred Armisen as Penny Marshall

I think the versatile Armisen only did the Hollywood director and “Laverne&Shirley” star a couple of times, but it was a riot.

43. Jay Pharoah as Will Smith

Pharoah is a newer cast member to the show and his specialty seems to be impressions. He’s got great takes on Denzel Washington, Chris Rock, Jay-Z, and others. His best so far is Will Smith.

42. Jan Hooks as Tammy Faye Bakker

Hooks is one of the most talented female cast members in the show’s history and her impersonation of disgraced evangelist Jim Bakker’s wife is perfect.

41. Kate McKinnon as Ellen DeGeneres

Another new cast member, McKinnon also seems to have a knack for impressions. Her Ellen DeGeneres is remarkable.

Coming next: Part Two, covering numbers 40-31!

Box Office Predictions: May 16-19

JJ Abrams eagerly awaited Star Trek Into Darkness blasts into theaters this weekend. Opening on Thursday, I wrote a detailed blog post Monday in which I predicted its four-day take will bring in over $100 million. That post can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/13/star-trek-into-darkness-box-office-prediction/

Captain Kirk and company should have no problem whatsoever debuting atop the box office. Last weekend’s #1 and #2 Iron Man 3 and The Great Gatsby, both huge hits, are likely to see drops close to the 50% range. It will be interesting in particular to see how Gatsby performs in its sophomore weekend. While the picture had a massive $50M opening, it earned a fairly weak B Cinemascore grade. Still, it’s the only title out there marketing to the female audience.

Rounding out the top five, Pain and Gain and 42 are bringing in considerably smaller grosses than the top 3 and are likely to see smaller declines.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s Top Five:

1. Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted Gross: $106.2 million (over Thursday-Sunday)

All remaining predictions are for Friday to Sunday frame:

2. Iron Man 3

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. The Great Gatsby

Predicted Gross: $25.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Pain and Gain

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. 42

Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 30%)

That’s all for now, but on Saturday I’ll have early results for how things are shaping up. And, of course, there will be a full report Sunday on the blog!

Oscar History: 2001

As far as film history, the year 2001 will most be remembered for the first installments of two billion dollar franchises, The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter. Other than that, not much will be remembered about the year. It was an exceptionally weak year for movies.

This was reflected in a relatively unimpressive group of Best Picture nominees. Ron Howard’s good but not great A Beautiful Mind would take top prize against Robert Altman’s Gosford Park, Todd Field’s In the Bedroom, and Baz Luhrmann’s Moulin Rouge. The other nominee: Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, which began a three-year streak of the franchise’s entry being nominated.

I’ve always felt Fellowship was the best of the trilogy and I certainly would’ve had no problem with it winning over Mind. The Academy decided against some edgier material, such as David Lynch’s critically lauded Mulholland Drive and Chris Nolan’s twisty thriller Memento.

Ron Howard took Best Director over Altman and Jackson. Lynch would be nominated here for Mulholland, as well as Ridley Scott for Black Hawk Down. Field and Luhrmann were the two auteurs whose Picture was nominated left out. Certainly, I would’ve reserved a slot for Nolan for his work in Memento.

Denzel Washington would earn his first Best Actor prize for Training Day (he won Supporting Actor for Glory in 1989). Other nominees: previous year’s winner Russell Crowe for Mind, Sean Penn for I Am Sam, Will Smith as Ali, and Tom Wilkinson for In the Bedroom.

I would have considered Johnny Depp for his performance in Blow or Billy Bob Thornton in Monster’s Ball. Keeping with the Memento kick, how about Guy Pearce for his challenging lead role? And if you’ve read my previous Oscar History posts, you’ll notice I usually advocate for comedic performances, which the Academy typically ignores. So how about a shout-out to Ben Stiller for his hilarious turn as Derek Zoolander?

Oscar history would be made as Halle Berry became the first African-American to win Best Actress for Monster’s Ball. It would also be the first year where both the Actor and Actress prizes went to African-Americans. Other nominees: Judi Dench in Iris, Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge, Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom, and Renee Zellwegger for Bridget Jones Diary. Other performances worthy of consideration: Naomi Watts in Mulholland Drive and Audrey Tautou in Amelie.

Jim Broadbent was a surprise Supporting Actor winner for Iris, beating out favorites Ben Kingsley in Sexy Beast and Ian McKellen in Lord of the Rings. Other nominees: Ethan Hawke for Training Day and Jon Voight in Ali.

Steve Buscemi in Ghost World and Gene Hackman in The Royal Tenenbaums were worthy nominees. And here’s a totally outside-the-box selection from me: Bruce Davison’s wonderful performance as Kirsten Dunst’s dad in the romantic drama Crazy/Beautiful, a greatly underrated film.

Jennifer Connelly would win Supporting Actress for A Beautiful Mind. Other nominees: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith (both for Gosford Park), Marisa Tomei for In the Bedroom, and Kate Winslet for Iris.

I probably would have found room for Cameron Diaz’s effective performance as Tom Cruise’s jilted lover in Vanilla Sky.

So, all in all, other than some historical Actor and Actress winners, 2001 was a pretty blah year for the Academy. A Beautiful Mind is a solid flick, but definitely one of the least memorable Best Picture winners of recent years, as I see it.

Trailer Park: Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Butler

This evening I bring you a new feature on the blog called Trailer Park, in which I’ll review the trailers for upcoming movies that have recently debuted. With the summer movie season freshly upon us, we’re likely to see a nice helping of trailers for pictures coming out this fall and even next summer. I’ll try to do a new Trailer Park posting every week, at least. I realize there’s probably oodles of movie bloggers like myself who also call their coming attractions posts Trailer Park, but hey – it’s a catchy name and you don’t always have to be original.

So what’s my criteria for grading a trailer? Simple. Does the trailer make me more or less likely to wanna watch the featured title? That’s pretty much it. Two recent examples: the most recent trailer for June’s Superman epic Man of Steel was a masterpiece. I went from really wanting to see it to dying to see it right away. Seriously, it’s one of the most effective trailers in a loooong time.

On the flip side, there’s R.I.P.D., coming in July. When I first heard about the movie, I thought “Sci-fi action comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds?” Sure, why not? Then I saw the trailer, in which it looks like a third-rate Men in Black knock-off with terrible special effects. Jeff Bridges has got to be receiving better offers than this!

This inaugural Trailer Park post grade three titles from Oscar-nominated directors. All three pictures are in the early running for awards consideration. How do their trailers measure up?

We begin with Captain Phillips. Paul Greengrass, director of The Bourne Supremacy, The Bourne Ultimatum, and United 93 brings us this true life thriller based on the Somali pirate hostage crisis of 2009. The title character is played by Tom Hanks. Judging from the preview, we may just have the actor’s first real awards-worthy role since Cast Away over 12 years ago. Hanks is also sporting his New England Catch Me If You Can accent here. The subject matter coupled with what appears to be the perfect director doing the material bodes well. The trailer for Captain Phillips is terrific. Grade: A

Alfonso Cuaron is the brilliant director behind Y Tu Mama Tambien, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, and Children of Men. It’s been seven long years since Children and film lovers have been eager to see what this visual genius comes up with next. The answer is Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney as astronauts whose mission goes horribly wrong. This is definitely more of a teaser than full trailer, but there’s just enough there to let us know this will be a feast for the eyes, as are all of Cuaron’s efforts. I can’t wait to see a full trailer, but the final shot of Bullock barreling helplessly into space earns Gravity a B+ trailer grade.

Lee Daniels receive a Best Director nomination for his unexpected hit Precious and followed it up with last year’s critically panned The Paperboy. His latest feature, The Butler, tells the true life story of an African-American White House butler (Forest Whitaker) who served from the Eisenhower to Reagan administrations. From the Weinstein Company (they know how to get movies noticed by Oscar), The Butler looks tailor-made for Academy consideration. Another selling point: this is Oprah Winfrey’s first major film role in 15 years. I must admit, however, I’m not wild about the trailer. There seems to be almost too much information they’re trying to pack into it. And the brief glimpses of well-known actors playing the First Family – Robin Williams as Ike, John Cusack as Nixon, Liev Schrieber as LBJ, Jane Fonda as Nancy Reagan, and Severus Snape as Ronald Reagan – are somewhat distracting. The Butler may turn out to be a great and inspiring picture, but the trailer is a tad underwhelming and only merits a B- Trailer grade.

So there you have it – my first crack at grading trailers. I’ll be back for more next week!