Box Office Predictions: September 26-28

Two new releases should top the box office this weekend as the Denzel Washington action pic The Equalizer and animated flick The Boxtrolls make their debuts on Friday. For my individual prediction posts on each, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/the-equalizer-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/the-boxtrolls-box-office-prediction/

I fully expect Denzel to easily rule the weekend with a just OK opening for Boxtrolls. If that animated title fails to meet its somewhat meager expectations, this week’s champ The Maze Runner has a shot at staying #2. I expect holdovers A Walk Among the Tombstones and This Is Where I Leave You to both lose about half their audience in weekend two.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Equalizer

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million

2. The Boxtrolls

Predicted Gross: $17.2 million

3. The Maze Runner

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. A Walk Among the Tombstones

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. This Is Where I Leave You

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Box Office Results (September 19-21)

The YA adaptation The Maze Runner opened  #1 as expected with a stealthy $32.5 million, ahead of my $26.1M estimate. As predicted above, it should suffer a fairly significant drop in its second weekend but with a reported $30M budget, it’s off to a great start and a sequel is already scheduled for 2015.

Not a good weekend for Liam Neeson as his A Walk Among the Tombstones suffered a disappointing debut with only $12.7 million, well below my $21.4M projection. With its weak B- Cinemascore grade, audiences clearly weren’t “taken” with it, so to speak.

The ensemble comedy This Is Where I Leave You had a middling opening with $11.5 million, just below my $12.3M prediction. The trailers and TV spots just weren’t successful in making it look like a must-see, despite the star power of Jason Bateman and Tina Fey.

Last weekend’s #1 No Good Deed, as expected, suffered a precipitous drop grossing $9.7 million – just below my $10.7M projection. Still, it’s earned a solid $39 million in ten days. In its sophomore frame, Dolphin Tale 2 rounded out the top five with $8.8 million – under my $10.8M estimate. The sequel, which isn’t matching its predecessor, has made $26 million so far.

Finally, I predicted the Kevin Smith directed horror pic Tusk would make $2.3 million on its limited number of screens, but it didn’t come close. It earned a paltry $886,000 playing in 602 venues.

That’s all for now, folks!

Top 25 Greatest South Park Episodes of All Time: Nos. 10-6

This evening we’ve arrived at part four of my personal favorite “South Park” episodes and that means we’ve breached the top ten! If you missed the first three installments covering 25-11, you can peruse them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/19/top-25-greatest-south-park-episodes-of-all-time-nos-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/20/top-25-greatest-south-park-episodes-of-all-time-nos-20-16/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/top-25-greatest-south-park-episodes-of-all-time-nos-15-11/

Let’s get into it:

10. “Good Times with Weapons”

Original Air Date: March 17, 2004 (Season 8)

The Season 8 premiere of the show has Parker and Stone going wild playing in the field of Japanese anime. The episode’s song “Let’s Fighting Love” is perhaps my favorite musical montage ever on the program.

9. “Woodland Critter Christmas”

Original Air Date: December 15, 2004 (Season 8)

The next spot belongs to the season finale of Season 8 and it’s the Christmas episode that makes Mr. Hankey look positively G-rated. The boys befriend a group of adorable animals only to find out they’re evil Satan worshipers. It’s even weirder than it sounds and side splittingly funny.

8. “You’re Getting Old”

Original Air Date: June 8, 2011 (Season 15)

An absolute stunner of an episode that generated significant publicity because it seemed to signal Parker and Stone’s frustration with having to keep the show going. The final montage set to Fleetwood Mac’s “Landslide” is surprisingly emotional for a raunchy animated series.

7. “Butter’s Very Own Episode”

Original Air Date: December 12, 2001 (Season 5)

Besides Cartman and Randy Marsh, my favorite SP character would be Butters. In season 5, he got his own episode dedicated to him where he’s presumed dead and his parents are suspected. This leads to a scathing and brilliant condemnation of the Ramsey parents, O.J. Simpson, and Gary Condit in one of the funniest closing scenes in the program’s tenure.

6. “The Jeffersons”

Original Air Date: April 21, 2004 (Season 8)

No one is better at mocking celebrities than this show and their take on Michael Jackson (five years before his death) is incredible. The musical number “Wishing Tree” is classic.

Tomorrow – I’ll announce my all-time top five… stay tuned!

The Fault in Our Stars Movie Review

When we are of a certain age such as 16-18 as the main characters in The Fault in Our Stars are, everything seems to be of a bigger consequence than perhaps it is. Your emotions are magnified. We experience feelings that are truly for the first time. Love is one of them. And there are lots of movies where we see teens go through that journey for the first time. Yet few of them get it right. Few of them manage to capture the almost indescribable significance of discovering love at an age when you’re just beginning to understand it. Cameron Crowe’s Say Anything achieved that rare feat. There are several moments in Josh Boone’s picture that do, too. That’s it greatest strength in a story that follows patterns we’ve seen before to be sure. That said, Fault finds ways to make them seem fresh with lots of credit going to the actors.

In The Fault in Our Stars, the consequences of first love are heightened due to the bond that Hazel Grace (Shailene Woodley) and Augustus (Ansel Elgort) share. They are both diagnosed with cancer and meet in a support group that Hazel’s parents make her go to. Unlike most teens who fall for one another and believe their time together will never end, they know their relationship will be different and not timeless. Upon their meeting, Hazel has Augustus read her favorite book which chronicles a little girl’s battle with their disease. Augustus is frustrated when the book ends with no clear cut conclusion and it leads him to seeking out the reclusive writer (Willem Dafoe) in Amsterdam to get some answers. Once overseas, Hazel and Augustus may not achieve the resolution they’re looking for with the alcoholic author. However, the trip brings them closer together and deeper in love – even though the filmmakers (and author apparently) choose a rather odd location for them to share a first kiss.

While I am not familiar with the picture’s source material, I’m well aware that the John Green novel is widely read and beloved by many. There’s no doubt the cancer themes certainly strike a chord with so many for obvious reasons, but I suspect the Fault phenomenon may lie with my first point. So few screenplays and written works get first love right.

Part of the film’s success in that manner is due to Woodley and Elgort. They’re quite good together and Woodley, especially, has proven herself to be one of the most exciting young actresses working today. Between The Descendants, The Spectacular Now and this – she’s put together quite a remarkable resume of performances in short order. This movie would crumble if the chemistry between the two stars didn’t work and luckily it does. As Hazel’s parents, Laura Dern and Sam Trammell are understated and effective and Nat Wolff provides some often needed comic relief as Augustus’s friend who’s been blinded by cancer.

The Fault in Our Stars could’ve easily veered into overt melodrama, but it mostly avoids it. Much of this is thanks to the wonderful casting, but also the writing which realizes Hazel Grace and Augustus as smart and thoughtful teenagers (something many screenwriters know nothing of). Yes it’s a tearjerker, but the actors and writers earn them by rarely pandering to the audience and capturing the young true love emotions of its two stars.

*** (out of four)

The Boxtrolls Box Office Prediction

Focus Features tries to get some animation movie dollars with The Boxtrolls, out Friday. The 3D comedic fantasy features the voices of Ben Kingsley, Elle Fanning, Toni Collette, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and Tracy Morgan.

The Boxtrolls will attempt to bring in family audiences and there is certainly a market out there with Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles having made the vast bulk of their money. However, some of its target audience may look at this as a B team offering. Reviews are sturdy with 71% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time. The absence of similar genre titles could lead to this to a debut above $20 million, but I’m skeptical. I’ll predict it manages an opening in the mid to high teens for a respectable but unspectacular debut.

The Boxtrolls opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million

For my prediction on The Equalizer, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/the-equalizer-box-office-prediction/

The Equalizer Box Office Prediction

Denzel Washington reteams with his Training Day director Antoine Fuqua for The Equalizer, loosely based on the 1980s crime TV show starring Edward Woodward. Columbia Pictures is so high on the project that they’ve already announced a sequel, so they’re confident this will rake in the dollars. Chloe Grace Moretz, Bill Pullman, and Melissa Leo costar.

There’s reason for the studio to be optimistic. When Denzel works within the action genre, positive results usually follow. In 2012, Safe House got off to a $40 million start and last summer’s 21 Guns took in $27 million. The Equalizer is unlikely to match the actor’s career best opening of $43 million for 2007’s American Gangster, but it’s not totally out of the question. Reviews have been decent and it currently stands at 70% on Rotten Tomatoes.

I believe this should eclipse the opening of 21 Guns while not reaching the heights of Safe House. A debut in the middle of those picture’s openings seems most likely and it should easily rule the box office next weekend.

The Equalizer opening weekend prediction: $34.8 million

For my prediction on The Boxtrolls, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/21/the-boxtrolls-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Greatest South Park Episodes of All Time: Nos. 15-11

Back at it continuing with my personal Top 25 favorite “South Park” episodes of all time, ahead of its season 18 debut on Wednesday. We’ve arrived at part 3 covering numbers 15-11. We’ll get into the Top Ten tomorrow! If you happened to miss the first two installments covering numbers 25-16, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/19/top-25-greatest-south-park-episodes-of-all-time-nos-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/20/top-25-greatest-south-park-episodes-of-all-time-nos-20-16/

And away we go!

15. “Mr. Hankey, The Christmas Poo”

Original Air Date: December 17, 1997 (Season 1)

Leave it to Trey Parker and Matt Stone to come up with the craziest Christmas mascot imaginable. Mr. Hankey made a few appearances on the show, but the first from season 1 is still the best.

14. “The Losing Edge”

Original Air Date: April 6, 2005 (Season 9)

Any episode focusing on Randy Marsh is usually a winner and this one is comedy gold where he can’t control his anger at the parents of teammates on his son’s baseball team.

13. “With Apologies to Jesse Jackson”

Original Air Date: March 7, 2007 (Season 11)

“South Park” has never been shy tackling taboo subjects and the season 11 premiere dared to undertake racial issues in a truly hilarious fashion. The opening “Wheel of Fortune” sequence is dangerous yet the creators pull it off, creating one of the most memorable sequences in the show’s history.

12. “All About Mormons”

Original Air Date: November 19, 2003 (Season 7)

Parker and Stone have famously never been shy about discussing all forms of religion on the program. Their take on Mormonism is brilliant and certainly helped lead to their most famous side project, the Broadway play “Book of Mormon” which is still going very strong.

11. “Kenny Dies”

Original Air Date: December 5, 2001 (Season 5)

One of the show’s hallmarks of “South Park” is Kenny’s death in every episode. It took until season 5 to treat his demise in a “serious” fashion and it’s unforgettable. When Cartman visits Congress and leads the body in a rendition of Asia’s “Heat of the Moment”, one of the program’s best musical moments was born.

And that’s today edition, my friends! The Top Ten will arrive tomorrow…

Godzilla (2014) Movie Review

Let’s say you got invited to a party and were told that Godzilla, the king of movie monsters, was going to be in attendance. You get there and for a while, you hear quite a bit of backstory about him. There’s even a celebrated TV actor who you’re so happy is appearing, even though he overacts almost laughably from time to time. Also, other monsters show up who you’re not as familiar with and feel a little ambivalent towards. Godzilla doesn’t even bother showing up until halfway through the event. Yet when he does it’s pretty cool. You decide that it was worth it.

And so it is with Godzilla and that’s the kind of party director Gareth Edwards chose to throw bringing back the iconic character to the screen. The last time an American studio featured the jolly green giant, it was with Roland Emmerich behind the camera and Matthew Broderick starring in the summer of 1998. That flick was a “disaster movie” in more ways than one and despite its $379 million worldwide total, it was considered a huge critical and commercial disappointment.

The glass is more half full sixteen years later. That celebrated TV actor is Walter Freaking White himself, Bryan Cranston! And, yes, his performance is a touch over the top. Contrary to what its TV spots might lead you to believe, he doesn’t even stick around the party as long as you’d think either. Cranston plays an engineer at a Japanese nuclear power plant who’s been monitoring troubling seismic activity. One of his coworkers is his wife (Juliette Binoche) and she tragically perishes when the seismic activity turns into a full-on disaster at the plant.

Flash forward to fifteen years later when Cranston’s son (Aaron Taylor-Johnson) is now a military bomb technician with a family of his own, while overacting Daddy is still in Japan trying to track what killed his wife. Circumstances bring them together and in contact with other scientists, led by Ken Watanabe and Sally Hawkins. And after about an hour – not only is Godzilla checked in at the party, but so are two MUTOs (Massive Unidentified Terrestrial Organisms). And as scientist Watanabe waxes philosophical about, our title character might be around to stop those other monsters from wreaking even more havoc. The military, led by David Strathairn, naturally disagree.

Godzilla does take its time to get going, but when it does we’re rewarded with some ultra cool action sequences. A MUTO in Las Vegas is a fun sight to see, as is Godzilla’s initial appearance in Hawaii where vacationers are treated to far more than they paid for.

Tayl0r-Johnson (of Kick-Ass fame) is the human star of these proceedings and we get some familiar scenes of him keeping in touch with his wife at home (Elizabeth Olsen) and young son. Home is San Francisco and that means an action set piece located at the Golden Gate Bridge, which brings me to an important point. Can we get a moratorium on the Golden Gate Bridge for big action spectacles??? After X-Men: The Last Stand and Rise of the Planet of the Apes – enough already. There are other bridges in this country.

Nevertheless, director Edwards brings to the table what Roland Emmerich didn’t – a genuine respect and understanding of the monster genre he’s playing in. And the second half of this party in particular has lots of solid moments that make it worthwhile. For the first time in a long time, we have a Godzilla done mostly right.

*** (out of four)

Top 25 Greatest South Park Episodes of All Time: Nos. 20-16

Today on the blog, we continue my personal favorite Top 25 “South Park” episodes of all time. Picking 25 out of 248 was quite a challenge, to say the least. If you missed part 1 covering numbers 25-21, you can find it here:

Top 25 Greatest South Park Episodes of All Time: Nos. 25-21

Let’s get to it!

20. “Cartman’s Mom Is a Dirty Slut”

Original Air Date: February 25, 1998 (Season 1)

This season 1 episode served as the first in a two-part episode arch where Cartman tries to find his real father… and there’s lots of suspects. This episode remains the highest-rated in the show’s history.

19. “Towelie”

Original Air Date: August 8, 2001 (Season 5)

How did Parker and Stone decide to parody the fact that their show had become a merchandising bonanza? By creating Towelie, a character ripe for product tie-ins who’s constantly reminding the boys “Don’t forget to bring a towel!” The problem is – he’s also an irresponsible drug addict.

18. “Cripple Fight”

Original Air Date: June 27, 2001 (Season 5)

The boys don’t understand their parents concerns with Big Gay Al being their scout leader. A great story to be sure, but the episode’s undeniable highlight is said “Cripple Fight” where Jimmy and Timmy duke it out. Their brawl is a shot for shot recreation from the 1988 John Carpenter B movie They Live. Amazing stuff.

17. “Best Friends Forever”

Original Air Date: March 30, 2005 (Season 9)

A prime example of “South Park” reflecting what’s happening in the news, “Best Friends Forever” took on the Terry Schiavo case mere hours before she passed away. This show won an Emmy.

16. “Crème Fraiche”

Original Air Date: November 17, 2010 (Season 14)

Pretty much any episode focusing on Randy is awesome. This time around, he’s uncomfortably obsessed with TV cooking shows and Sharon is displeased. Her subplot involving the Shake Weight product is a riot, too. Definitely a huge highlight in the last several years of the show!

And that’s all for now! I’ll be back with part 3 and numbers 15-11 tomorrow…

Top 25 Greatest South Park Episodes of All Time: Nos. 25-21

Time flies, my friends. Want proof? This Wednesday, Comedy Central’s “South Park” begins its 18th season with its 248th episode! The series created by Trey Parker and Matt Stone is probably my favorite comedic program of the past two decades. Yes, I’d put it above “The Simpsons” and “Family Guy”. Don’t get me wrong – they’re terrific, too. However, I’m a “South Park” guy. I’ve never missed an episode.

This brings us to my personal list of Top 25 episodes of all time. Simply put, this was hard. Really hard. Like… Sophie’s Choice hard. Yet somehow I’ve managed to do it. Like other lists on this here blog, the top 25 will be a five-part series will additional entries coming everyday until Tuesday, the day before the new season’s debut.

Let’s get to it!

25. “It’s Christmas in Canada”

Original Air Date: December 17, 2003 (Season 7)

Season 7’s season finale and Christmas episode was a brilliant parody of The Wizard of Oz and managed to hilariously incorporate the capture of Saddam Hussein, which had occurred just earlier that weekend.

24. “Fat Butt and Pancake Head”

Original Air Date: April 16, 2003 (Season 7)

No show is better at excoriating celebrities and “Fat Butt and Pancake Head” is a perfect example. Fat Butt is Jennifer Lopez. Pancake Head is Ben Affleck. They were dating at the time. This episode shows Cartman at his crazy best.

23. “Canada On Strike”

Original Air Date: April 2, 2008 (Season 12)

Any episode that has great subplots for Ike and Butters is a winner in my book. The episode’s battle between YouTube celebrities is an all-time classic.

22. “More Crap”

Original Air Date: October 10, 2007 (Season 11)

“South Park” is better than no other at being uproarious yet making important political and social satire at the same time. Yet sometimes – we just want the show to be delicious lowbrow humor. “More Crap” is just that. And it features Randy Marsh at his best and a devastating parody of U2 lead singer Bono.

21. “The Red Badge of Gayness”

Original Air Date: November 24, 1999 (Season 3)

Probably not the favorite episode of Civil War re-enactors, but Cartman’s turn as a frustrated general is comedic gold.

And that’s all until tomorrow when I’ll bring you part two covering numbers 20-16!

 

The Last of the Mohicans: Throwback Thursday Reviews

And now for a new feature on the blog which I’ll call my Throwback Thursday reviews where I revisit an older film title or perhaps watch it for the first time and offer my thoughts. Being that I gave this new category the fancy title I did, I’ll do my best to post such reviews on that alliterated day following Wednesday and before Friday.

We begin with Michael Mann’s The Last of the Mohicans, which I hadn’t watched since it came out 22 years ago. Since then, Mann has gone onto to direct such great films as Heat and The Insider, as well as disappointments (in my view) like Ali and Public Enemies. And of course lead actor Daniel Day-Lewis has become one of the greatest actors of his (or all) time and won two Oscars in recent years.

This was actually Day-Lewis’s follow-up feature since winning his first Best Actor Academy Award for 1989’s My Left Foot. It’s based on the James Fenimore Cooper novel and the original 1936 picture of the same name. It is set in 1757 during the French and Indian War with Day-Lewis as Hawkeye, a Caucasian raised by the Mohican Tribe. They are drawn into the British/French conflict when their friends are murdered. Circumstances dictate Nathaniel and his tribal family members escort British Major Heyward (Steven Waddington) and the two daughters (Madeline Stowe, Jodhi May) of a colonel to a fort.

Their journey becomes treacherous when the British’s Huron Tribe guide Magua (Wes Studi) betrays them. Turns out he’s working for the French – sort of. Along the way, Nathaniel and the daughter Cora, played by Stowe, fall in love and that doesn’t sit well with Major Heyward, who plans to marry her.

I must admit that I remembered very little about The Last of the Mohicans before my re-watching of it other than generally liking it over two decades ago. And, today, that statement still holds true. There is much to truly admire. First off, the picture is stunningly gorgeous from its landscapes to terrific art direction and cinematography and set design. The battle sequences are well-choreographed and often thrilling. Day-Lewis, unsurprisingly, makes for a rock solid leading man.

His performance is matched only by Studi’s, whose Magua is a fascinating character. Even though he may be the villain, we can at least understand his perspective on things and it elevates him to more than just your typical bad guy. In fact, if screenwriters Mann and Christopher Crowe had gone even further in exploring Magua’s story, Mohicans would have perhaps been better off for it. They could’ve easily filled that screen time and jettisoned the pic’s main flaw: a boring and uninspiring love story between Hawkeye and Cora.

The fault lies nowhere with either Day-Lewis or Stowe, who’s perfectly adequate in the part. It’s just that their romantic subplot is never interesting and their dialogue together is clichéd. I never fully understood why they fell for one another so quickly and passionately other than movie rules dictate that it be so.

Having said that, there’s more than enough good in Mohicans to outweigh the not so good. And if you haven’t seen it, it’s definitely worth a look.

*** (out of four)

And that’s my inaugural Throwback Thursday movie review, folks! Look for the next one Saturday… or, wait… how does this work again??