Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Predictions: Orion and the Dark

Orion and the Dark is streaming as of today on Netflix. Produced by DreamWorks Animation and marking the directorial debut of Sean Charmatz, the animated fantasy deals with themes of existentialism and fear. This is not too surprising considering the script comes from Charlie Kaufman, adapting Emma Yarlett’s children’s book. The voice cast includes Jacob Tremblay, Colin Hanks, Paul Walter Hauser, Angela Bassett, Ike Barinholtz, Natasia Demetriou, Nat Faxon, Carla Gugino, and Werner Herzog.

Kaufman is no stranger to the genre. He wrote and directed 2015’s Anomalisa. That critically acclaimed effort was up for Animated Feature at the Oscars, ultimately losing to Pixar’s Inside Out. Netflix knows how to get their animated material awards attention. Recent nominees include The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Sea Beast, the victorious Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, and Nimona.

Orion is getting a warm reception so far with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. We don’t know yet what this category’s landscape will look like several months down the road. However, I wouldn’t underestimate the chances for this to make it in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Past Lives

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered seven of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Celine Song’s Past Lives.

The Case for Past Lives:

Ever since it premiered at Sundance in January 2023, the relationship drama emerged as a serious contender and the momentum for a BP nod never ebbed. In addition to placement on many top 10 lists, Lives was up for top honors at the Globes and Critics Choice and won Best Film at the Gothams.

The Case Against Past Lives:

Song’s debut feature received the least amount of total nods with just two (BP and Original Screenplay). Every other contender was recognized for five or more. That means the principal cast (Greta Lee, Teo Yoo, John Magaro) went unrecognized as did the direction. Other than Gotham (which seldom correlates with Oscar), Lives hasn’t really won anywhere. It’s even lost international feature competitions to fellow competitor Anatomy of a Fall.

The Verdict:

Considering the minimal haul, Lives was lucky to make the cut. It’ll go 0 for 2 on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Poor Things…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro
Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

Oscar Predictions: Porcelain War

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev’s documentary Porcelain War focuses on three artists turned Ukrainian soldiers following the Russian invasion. After its debut at Sundance, it proceeded to win the Grand Jury prize for its genre at the Utah festival.

War looks to follow 20 Days in Mariupol (also covering the war) in generating awards attention. With an 89% RT rating, it might need a shrewd distributor to mount an effective campaign. Considering the subject matter, it stands a solid shot at breaking through with voters a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Dìdi

Writer/director Sean Wang is having a nice week. His live-action short film Nai Nai & Wai Po made the contending five in that category during Tuesday morning’s Oscar nominations. Three days later, his feature-length dramedy Dìdi won the U.S. Dramatic Audience Award at Sundance, in addition to the Ensemble prize. The coming-of-age tale stars Izaac Wang, Shirley Chen, Chang Li Hua, and Joan Chen.

With a 91% RT rating, reviews indicate this is a crowdpleaser with a memorable performance from young Wang. Don’t be surprised if a Critics Choice nom for Young Actor/Actress comes his way. The eventual distributor will need to mount a great campaign for this to generate Academy attention. It’s possible, but the critical reaction indicates it isn’t automatic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Winner

Director Susanna Fogel and star Emilia Jones of CODA fame teamed up last year at Sundance with the thriller Cat Person. Any Oscar buzz petered out upon its unveiling with an eventual 46% RT rating and very limited theatrical release. They are back at Sundance ’24 with Winner, a black comedy costarring Kathryn Newton, Connie Britton, Zach Galifianakis, and Danny Ramirez.

Winner refers to Reality Winner, Jones’s real-life character who became known for leaking intelligence about Russian meddling in the 2016 Presidential election. Like Cat, the premiere of this title came and went without much fanfare. The RT score is 60% and there’s no indication that this will be in the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Gaucho Gaucho

Gaucho is the seventh studio offering by the great Steely Dan (it’s got “Hey Nineteen” on it)! Gaucho Gaucho, on the other hand, is Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw’s follow-up to their acclaimed 2021 documentary The Truffle Hunters. Focused on the title character community of Argentine cowboys, it has been unveiled at Sundance.

With an 86% RT score, the lions share of the praise is going to the B & W cinematography. Truffle, which received stronger reviews, didn’t make the Academy’s cut in Doc Feature. I’m skeptical this will be able to rustle up a nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The American Society of Magical Negroes

Actor turned writer/director Kobi Libii makes his behind the camera debut with satire The American Society of Magical Negroes, which hit Sundance prior to its March 22nd bow. It stars Justice Smith (pulling double fest duty with the well-received I Saw the TV Glow), David Alan Grier, An-Li Bogan, Drew Tarver, Michaela Watkins, Aisha Hinds, Tim Baltz, Rupert Friend, and Nicole Byer.

The reception for Society is likely not what distributor Focus Features was hoping for. The RT rating is only 42%. There’s some thematic comps to freshly minted Best Picture nominee American Fiction. However, most are saying it doesn’t approach the quality of it. Don’t expect this to be talked about a year from now for the 97th Academy Awards. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: My Old Ass

Megan Park received critical acclaim for her 2021 directorial debut The Fallout starring Jenna Ortega. Her follow-up is generating the same in Park City at Sundance with My Old Ass. Maisy Stella (best known from TV’s Nashville) stars as a youngster able to communicate with her future self (Aubrey Plaza) about life and love ahead. Maddie Ziegler, Percy Hynes White, and Seth Isaac Johnson costar. Amazon MGM Studios plunked down $15 million for the distribution rights and they plan a theatrical release later this year.

With a 92% RT score, much of the festival buzz (beyond the sale) is centered on Stella. I don’t think the film itself will go far with awards prospects. In fact, the Academy may not sniff it at all. The Golden Globes, on the other hand, could take a look at the lead in Actress (Musical/Comedy). She could be a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

In 2018, Ian Bonhôte and Peter Ettedgui’s documentary McQueen focused on British fashion director Alexander McQueen. It earned strong reviews, but wasn’t much of an awards player. The filmmakers are back with a higher profile doc six years later in Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It recounts the performer’s career and life following his paralysis resulting from a horse riding accident.

Early reaction from its Sundance screening is that it’s an emotionally stirring watch. The RT score is 100%. Like Will & Harper (my previous Oscar Predictions write-up), Super/Man should be subject to a bidding war by studios and streamers. This appears destined to be one of the most watched docs of 2024.

That doesn’t always translate to the Academy taking notice. In the just announced Oscar noms, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (also acclaimed and with similar themes) made the Documentary Feature shortlist. It did not make the final five. This story should have at least an equal shot at the ultimate quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Will & Harper

Will & Harper seems to be quite a crowd favorite at Sundance. The documentary follows Will Ferrell and best friend Harper Steele on a road trip following Harper’s recent gender transition. Josh Greenbaum, who made Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar and Strays, chronicles the journey.

Not all the reviews are raves, but it does have a 100% RT score. Obviously Ferrell’s star power and the subject matter could result in lots of eyeballs on this doc. It should be scooped by a streamer or studio in short order and there’s already rumors it might land the largest doc deal in Sundance history.

Just because this appears bound to be one of the highest profile pics in its genre doesn’t mean it’ll generate awards attention. Yet if viewers respond the way the Park City group is (multiple standing O’s), it could be in the conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…