Mati Diop’s documentary Dahomey has won the Golden Bear, the top prize at the Berlin Film Festival. Focusing on the theft and return of ancient African artifacts, it marks the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2019’s Atlantics. That fictional work was Senegal’s International Feature Film submission. It made the shortlist but not the final cut of five.
The French release date for Dahomey isn’t until September and U.S. distribution is TBD. Clocking in at just 67 minutes, the early RT score is a clean 100%. The length is enough to contend for Documentary Feature and it has a solid shot at doing just that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Hilary Swank is a double Oscar winner in Best Actress. She went 2 for 2 with 1999’s Boys Don’t Cry and 2004’s Million Dollar Baby. Fun fact: she’s probably responsible for Annette Bening not having an Academy Award as she was likely runner-up for American Beauty in ’99 and Being Julia five years later.
Bening might be up this year for Nyad, but Swank has a rare big screen starring role this weekend in Ordinary Angels. The faith-based and fact-based drama is from filmmaker Jon Gunn with a screenplay by Kelly Fremon Craig and Meg Tilly. Alan Ritchson, Nancy Travis, and Tamala Jones costar.
Reviews are actually solid with 80% on RT and several critics praising Swank’s work. That said, this is not a genre where the Academy often takes notice. While this appears to be a crowdpleaser with a 100% audience score on the Tomato site, don’t expect this to make the cut in Actress or other categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Johan Renck’s Spaceman is not – I repeat, not – about the doctor that Chris Parnell hilariously played on 30 Rock. The sci-fi drama does star a fellow SNL alumni in Adam Sandler as a Czech astronaut on a solo mission. It premiered at the Berlin Film Festival earlier this week, hits theaters in limited fashion this weekend, and premieres on Netflix March 1st. Costars include Carey Mulligan (currently vying for Best Actress in Maestro), Paul Dano (doing voiceover work), Kunal Nayyar, Lena Olin, and Isabella Rossellini.
Sandler’s serious work has probably come close to making the Academy’s cut with 2019’s Uncut Gems or 2022’s Hustle which earned him a SAG nod. I don’t think you’ll see Spaceman launch him into consideration. The RT score is a mixed 64% with some reviews calling it a bore. Others are far more complimentary, but not to the degree that I think that generates any awards buzz. The lone exception could be Visual Effects. I’m not confident in that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Alonso Ruizpalacios’s La Cocina takes place in the high stakes environment of an NYC restaurant. Some critics are saying it makes the frenetic action of TV’s acclaimed The Bear seem downright quaint. The Mexican filmmaker’s follow-up to 2021’s A Cop Movie is generating plenty of buzz from its Berlin Film Festival premiere.
Raúl Briones Carmona and Rooney Mara headline a cast that includes Anna Diaz, Motell Foster, and Oded Fehr. With a 90% RT score, some reviews indicate this could be an awards player. In order for that occur, a distributor would need to mark a solid campaign (it’s bound to get picked up in short order). If Mexico makes it their pick for International Feature Film, a spot in the eventual quintet is on the menu. A best case scenario could be nods beyond IFF with Carmona, Mara, Adapted Screenplay, and perhaps BP/Director as possibilities. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ethan Coen makes his solo directorial debut with Drive-Away Dolls, which parks in theaters this Friday and is co-scripted by his wife Tricia Cooke. Originally slated for a fall 2023 bow until the five month push, the screwball road comedy clocks in at a brisk 84 minutes. Margaret Qualley and Geraldine Viswanathan star with a supporting cast including Beanie Feldstein, Colman Domingo, Pedro Pascal, Bill Camp, and Matt Damon.
In 2021, Ethan’s brother Joel made his first behind the camera effort sans his sibling with The Tragedy of Macbeth. That Shakespearian tale garnered three Oscar nods for Actor (Denzel Washington), Cinematography, and Production Design.
Early reviews for Dolls are all over the map with a current RT rating of 72%. Attention from the Academy seems highly unlikely. I’m not confident the Globes will bite either in their Musical/Comedy competitions (though maybe Qualley or Viswanathan could sneak in if the Actress race is weak). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In 2021, Denis Villeneuve’s vision of Dune generated 10 Oscar nods and six victories. The eagerly awaited Dune: Part Two sweeps into theaters on March 1 (this time with no simultaneous release date on Max). It is expected to outdo its predecessor in terms of box office numbers (my financial estimate is hitting the blog shortly). Part Two may also match or exceed the original’s nomination count.
The review embargo lifted today and the current RT score is a dazzling 97%. That’s up over the 83% that Dune had. Many critics claim it improves upon part one in every way. Villeneuve returns to direct. Among the sprawling cast, we have Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Rebecca Ferguson, Josh Brolin, Stellan Skarsgård, Dave Bautista, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Charlotte Rampling, and Javier Bardem back in the mix. Newcomers to the franchise include Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, and Anya Taylor Joy.
At the 94th Academy Awards, Dune‘s took gold in tech races Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Had Part Two not been pushed from 2023 to 2024, it would likely be in serious competition with Oppenheimer and others in those competitions. It would have Visual Effects locked up. Dune ’21 also had nominations for Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Makeup & Hairstyling.
Let’s be clear. Based on the reaction out today, Part Two should vie for inclusion in all those categories… and more. You may recall that Villeneuve was notably snubbed in Director three years back. The Academy might make up for that this time around.
Then there’s the actors and that’s trickier. Ferguson got a little ink as a possibility for Supporting Actress for Dune. For the sequel, expect the same for Chalamet and especially Butler as the villainous Feyd-Rautha. It is also possible the cast will be ignored. For the Lord of the Rings trilogy, only Ian McKellen ever managed a nomination for the initial chapter.
Bottom line: Part Two looks like 2024’s first surefire contender in BP and much more (it is hard to imagine it losing derbies like Cinematography and Visual Effects). The 96th ceremony hasn’t aired yet, but the 97th seems to have truly started with this embargo lapsing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There’s a darn good chance that Cillian Murphy will take the Best Actor prize as Oppenheimer a little less than a month from now. A second nomination in a row is not out of the question based on buzz from the Berlin Film Festival. Tim Mielants’s 1980s set Irish drama Small Things like These has kicked off the German fest to acclaim. Costars include Eileen Walsh, Michelle Fairley, Emily Watson, and Ciaran Hinds.
Based on the smattering of reviews, the RT score is 100%. Based on a 2021 novel by Claire Keegan, much of the praise is centered on Murphy. Given that Oppenheimer appears well on its way to multiple victories, Small should have no trouble securing stateside distribution.
A smart campaign could put its lead in the mix again. The Adapted Screenplay from Enda Walsh is also being singled out. Obviously we are extraordinarily early in the season for the 97th Academy Awards. Yet this is one to keep in mind as the months roll along. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When Reinaldo Marcus Green’s Bob Marley: One Love, the biopic of the reggae icon was slated for early 2024 (it’s out February 14th), it called into question the viability of its awards prospects. After all, most real contenders aren’t seen in the first quarter unless it’s a Sundance screening. That speculation has been confirmed with the review embargo now lifted.
Kingsley Ben-Adir, who likely came close to a Supporting Actor nod in 2020 for One Night in Miami…, plays the title character with Lashana Lynch as wife Rita. The supporting cast includes James Norton, Tosin Cole, Umi Myers, and Anthony Welsh. Green’s previous pic King Richard gave Will Smith a much discussed Best Actor victory.
Don’t look for the Academy to look too much into Love and that could include Ben-Adir’s performance (though I wouldn’t totally discount the possibility). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 36% and even the positive(ish) reviews use descriptions like serviceable and decent. Despite Marley’s beloved music, I wouldn’t look for Sound to be in play (though it would be the only race where it’s somewhat possible). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Laura Chinn’s Suncoast premiered at Sundance, is out in limited fashion weekend, and hits Hulu this Friday. The coming-of-age drama stars Laura Linney, Nico Parker, and Woody Harrelson.
Distributed by Searchlight, the writer/director’s debut work failed to break out in Utah. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a so-so 68%. Despite some praise for Linney and Parker, I wouldn’t expect awards voters to shed light on this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
At the Oscars honoring the movies of 2019, the Brits put up Chiwetel Ejiofor’s directorial debut The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind as their selection for International Feature Film. The Academy passed it up. At Sundance, the actor and filmmaker’s sophomore effort Rob Peace premiered. Based on a biography by Jeff Hobbs, the tragic drama stars Jay Will in the title role alongside Ejiofor as his father, Mary J. Blige, Camila Cabello, and Michael Kelly.
Various reviews are quite solid while some negative write-ups have emerged as well. The current result is a 75% RT rating (under Wind‘s 86%). Some reaction indicates this is a crowdpleaser and that could help with eventual awards prospects. However, the likelihood is that voters won’t give Peace a chance unless a distributor works serious magic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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