Category: Oscar Predictions

Oscar Watch: Birdman

Today the Venice Film Festival kicked off and immediately there is major Oscar news to pass along in the form of Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s Birdman, which opens domestically on October 17th. The film was already considered a potential Academy Awards contender and its premiere more than solidified that status. Early reviews are fantastic.

The advance word today has put me in the unique position of making some rare declarative statements in late August, considered very early in the Oscar season when most contenders have yet to be seen. However, based on the buzz emanating from Italy – I give you these all but guarantees:

Birdman will be nominated for Best Picture

Its director Inarritu will be nominated for Best Director

Its star Michael Keaton will be nominated for Best Actor

The comedy/drama comes from acclaimed director Inarritu, whose other efforts include Amores perros, 21 Grams, and Babel (which was nominated for multiple Oscars in 2006). Besides his directing nomination, expect him and his cowriters to be recognized in the Original Screenplay category.

Birdman focuses on an aging actor best known for playing a superhero… a role Michael Keaton seems tailor made for. And the reviews suggest this is Keaton’s finest role yet. He seems a shoo-in to earn his second Best Actor nomination… some 26 years after his first for Clean and Sober.

As for supporting players, costars Edward Norton and Emma Stone appear to be strong possibilities in the Supporting Actor and Actress races, though their nominations don’t seem quite as assured as Keaton’s. At least not yet. It would mark Norton’s third nod after 1996’s Primal Fear and 1998’s American History X and the first for Stone.

Birdman becomes the third 2014 release that are highly likely to compete in the biggest race of all – Picture. The other two: Boyhood and Foxcatcher and you can read my detailed posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/12/oscar-watch-boyhood/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/19/oscar-watch-foxcatcher/

Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel could find itself in the mix as well, but it’s inclusion is currently more up in the air:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/06/oscar-watch-the-grand-budapest-hotel/

Next week – I’ll be posting my first predictions in all six major categories for the Academy Awards. You can bet Birdman will be featured prominently.

Oscar Watch: Chadwick Boseman in Get On Up

It’s not out until Friday but the James Brown biopic Get On Up has so far been earning very solid reviews, especially for its star Chadwick Boseman. The actor became well-known to audiences last year for his portrayal of another real-life figure, Jackie Robinson, in 42. His well-received turn in that part and critical lauds for Up could mean Boseman’s chances for a Best Actor nomination are decent.

Obviously the race is in its early stages though, based on festival buzz, you can bet Steve Carell will earn one of the five spots for Foxcatcher. Everything else is currently uncertain. A win or nomination for an actor playing a musical legend is nothing new. In 2004, Jamie Foxx took the prize playing Ray Charles in Ray. The following year, Reese Witherspoon won Best Actress as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line and Joaquin Phoenix was nominated as Johnny Cash. Other past nominees include Gary Busey in The Buddy Holly Story, Angela Bassett and Laurence Fishburne in the Tina Turner pic What’s Love Got to Do With It?, Diana Ross as Billie Holiday in Lady Sings the Blues, Jessica Lange as Patsy Cline in Sweet Dreams, and a win for Sissy Spacek as Loretta Lynn in Coal Miner’s Daughter.

If the movie turns out to be a huge hit, it might even stand a chance for a Best Picture nomination. However, that currently appears to be a long shot. Boseman’s chances are much greater and his name is one to remember come nomination time next year.

 

Oscar Watch: Boyhood

Director Richard Linklater has been a critics darling for over two decades since his acclaimed 1991 debut Slacker. His second picture Dazed and Confused is now considered an American classic. And there’s his critically beloved trilogy of Before Sunrise, Before Sunset, and Before Midnight in addition to Waking Life, School of Rock, Fast Food Nation, and Bernie.

What does his filmography currently have in common? None have received a great deal of attention from the Academy and not one has received a Best Picture  or Director nomination. This could potentially change with Linklater’s latest effort Boyhood.

The pic premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January and just opened this weekend in limited release. The shooting of Boyhood is unique. Linklater shot the film over a nearly 12 year period and it focuses on the life of a boy (Ellar Coltrane) from childhood to adulthood. Ethan Hawke and Patricia Arquette play his divorced parents.

Critics have been absolutely over the moon on it. Based on 97 reviews, Boyhood stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with Rolling Stone‘s Peter Travers calling it the best movie of the year so far. Richard Roeper has referred to it as one of the greatest pictures he’s ever seen.

The question of Boyhood‘s Oscar viability may come down to how much mainstream exposure it receives. However, based on reviews alone, this stands the best chance of any of Linklater’s catalogue to receive a Best Picture and Director nomination, as well as Actor (Coltrane), Supporting Actor (Hawke), and Supporting Actress (Arquette).

Oscar Watch: The Fault in Our Stars

It’s still mighty early in the year to be talking about Oscar contenders as probably nearly 100% have yet to be released. I’ve already touched on the somewhat longshot prospects of The Grand Budapest Hotel and the very likely possibility of this fall’s Foxcatcher receiving nods (Steve Carell is a shoo-in). You can read those posts here:

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Oscar Watch: Foxcatcher

However, this weekend brings the film adaptation of John Green’s wildly popular novel The Fault in Our Stars. The pic appears to be headed towards a massive opening weekend and it sits at a rock solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So is there any chance this could be nominated for Best Picture? Truth be told – not much of one. Then again it’s hard to gauge right now because we don’t know how strong this autumn’s offerings will be. If Fault is a mega-grosser and a good portion of the fall hopefuls disappoint, the stars could align.

While I’m not high on the film’s chances at Best Picture, a Best Actress nomination for Shailene Woodley seems more feasible. The actress has already been in the mix of awards discussions for 2011’s The Descendants and 2013’s The Spectacular Now and  she’s yet to be nominated. Woodley had a hit earlier this spring with Divergent and she’s drawn rave reviews for this. I wouldn’t bank on her receiving a Best Actress nod, but it’s certainly possible.

As always, I’ll update my Oscar hopefuls as they come out!

Oscar Watch: Foxcatcher

The Best Picture race for next year’s Oscars has officially begun with the screening of Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher at the Cannes Film Festival. A couple of months back, I wrote a post suggesting the longshot possibility that The Grand Budapest Hotel could nab a nomination. It’s still certainly possible, but unlikely as the real heavyweights for consideration will hit this fall and winter.

There’s nothing unlikely about Foxcatcher‘s chances. The pic is directed by Bennett Miller, whose last two features (2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball) both scored Best Picture nods. It focuses on the true story of Schultz brothers Mark (Channing Tatum) and Dave (Mark Ruffalo) and their relationship with schizophrenic John du Pont (Steve Carell). Reviews coming out of Cannes have been magnificent. To say this is the first surefire Oscar contender is an understatement.

Its significant Best Picture (and Director) chances aside, critics have been truly over the moon regarding Carell’s work – so much so that Variety declared his nomination a “lock”. Director Miller’s films have given the late Philip Seymour Hoffman a Best Actor win for Capote and Brad Pitt a nomination in the same category for Moneyball. The consensus for Carell is that this will be the role that changes his career from dependable comic everyman to serious dramatic actor. This is also familiar territory for Miller: it was Moneyball that significantly changed Jonah Hill’s career trajectory and also earned him first Oscar nomination. It is unclear yet whether Sony Pictures Classics will campaign Carell in the Actor or Supporting Actor race. Tatum is reportedly the star and it sounds like his chances to score a nod are also on the upswing. Either way, based on today’s reaction alone, you can use pen to fill Carell’s name for Academy recognition and not pencil.

The bad news for us? We have to wait until November to see the film as it opens stateside November 14.

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Yes, the Oscar ceremony celebrating the best of film in 2013 was just four days ago. Yes, it’s entirely too early to start speculating on next year’s Oscars.

Or perhaps not because tomorrow brings us what could be the first legitimate Oscar contender of 2014. It comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Director/writer Anderson has a very loyal following that include most critics. Some of his acclaimed works include Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Moonrise Kingdom. All were favorites in the critical community. None have received a Best Picture nomination.

There may a feeling that Anderson is due and Budapest could be that movie. It stands at a solid 87% so far on Rotten Tomatoes. It also has one heckuva cast – with lead Ralph Fiennes joining Adrien Brody, Willem Dafoe, Jeff Goldblum, Harvey Keitel, Jude Law, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwarztman, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, and Owen Wilson. In early reviews, Fiennes has particularly been singled out and we could hear his name mentioned as a Best Actor candidate.

The picture has a great shot at a Best Original Screenplay nomination where Anderson has been nominated twice before for Tenenbaums and Kingdom. It goes without saying, but there’s no way to currently know how good a year 2014 will turn out to be. It’s not even out yet, but I’ll say with confidence that Budapest wouldn’t have been nominated in 2013.

However, 2013 was a rather strong year. With the combination of an overdue feeling for Anderson and current positive buzz, this is 2014’s first Oscar contender.

Todd’s FINAL 2014 Oscar Winner Predictions

Here they are! My FINAL predictions in all categories (minus the short film races) for this year’s Academy Awards. Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve written individual posts predicting the six major categories. At the time, I said that those could change by final prediction time. None of them have.

However, the Best Picture race in particular has changed a bit in my mind. I believe the chances of Gravity emerging as the winner over 12 Years a Slave is greater than even a couple of days ago. As mentioned before, I see only those two pics and American Hustle as legit contenders for the award. My percentage chances have evolved though: I’d put 12 Years at 60%, Gravity at 25%, and Hustle at 15%.

These final predictions will reflect my pick for winner as well as my runner-up prediction in case I’m wrong. Let’s get right to it:

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Runner-Up: Gravity

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Winner: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Runner-Up: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Runner-Up: Amy Adams, American Hustle

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Winner: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Runner-Up: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Winner: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Runner-Up: Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

Runner-Up: The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Winner: American Hustle

Runner-Up: Her

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Predicted Winner: The Great Beauty

Runner-Up: The Broken Circle Breakdown

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Predicted Winner: The Act of Killing

Runner-Up: 20 Feet from Stardom

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted Winner: Frozen

Runner-Up: The Wind Rises

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Nebraska

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Predicted Winner: American Hustle

Runner-Up: The Great Gatsby

BEST FILM EDITING

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Captain Phillips

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Predicted Winner: Dallas Buyers Club

Runner-Up: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Her

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Predicted Winner: “Let It Go” from Frozen

Runner-Up: “No Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Predicted Winner: The Great Gatsby

Runner-Up: Gravity

BEST SOUND EDITING

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Captain Phillips

BEST SOUND MIXING

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: Captain Phillips

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Predicted Winner: Gravity

Runner-Up: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

And there’s my final predictions for Sunday night, folks! I’ll have an update following the show outlining how I did.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

After five posts predicting the other major categories for this year’s Academy Awards, we’ve arrived at the biggest race of all: Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees:

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

As I see it, there are three films that stand a realistic chance at taking home the gold. Those three do not include Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, or The Wolf of Wall Street.

That leaves us with American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave.

While I have predicted that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity (a pick I’m highly confident in), the chances of his picture winning are much more slim. While it was a hit with audiences and critics – the sci-fi epic has won no major precursors to speak of. Its recognition should come to Cuaron and in various technical categories.

American Hustle certainly has plenty of fans and director David O. Russell has been on a heckuva hot streak. The pic stands the second best chance of being the victor.

However, the fact is that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is undeniably the frontrunner and it has been for awhile. Slave has won a slew of precursors, including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. From an odds perspective, I’d put it this way:

12 Years a Slave: 75% chance of winning

American Hustle: 20% chance of winning

Gravity: 5% chance of winning

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

For a full breakdown of my picks, here ya go:

Picture – 12 Years a Slave

Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Actor – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Next weekend – I’ll have my final predictions in all categories before the big show. If any of the six major ones change in the next week (unlikely), I’ll act accordingly. Until then!

2014 Oscars: Best Director Prediction

We’re just over a week away from the Oscars and over the last few days, I’ve been posting my predictions for winners in the six major races. So far the acting categories are covered with the following picks:

Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

This brings us to Best Director. Let’s recap the nominees:

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

We begin with getting Payne and Scorsese out of the way. They’re highly unlikely to be the victors. That leaves us with Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell.

We’ll get to my Best Picture prediction soon enough on the blog, but many see 12 Years a Slave as the frontrunner for the race. That would mean McQueen wins, right? Not necessarily.

David O. Russell has truly been on a roll lately with The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and now American Hustle. Academy voters may want to reward his incredible hot streak – especially if Hustle performs well in other categories and has a better than expected evening.

Having said that, the momentum is undeniably with Cuaron. While Gravity may not win the biggest prize, critics and audiences marveled at the director’s technical achievements here. This could be somewhat of a repeat of 2012 when Argo won Picture, but Director went to Ang Lee for his amazing job with Life of Pi.

Cuaron has won basically all the precursors and this seems like a perfect spot for Gravity to win a high-profile category.

Best Director Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Best Picture is up next and it’ll be up this weekend. I’ll have my final predictions in all categories a couple of days before the show. Stay tuned!

 

2014 Oscars: Best Actor Prediction

Tonight on the blog brings me to my prediction for Best Actor and, so far, this is the most difficult one. While Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Cate Blanchett for Actress are safe bets and I picked Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress as a slight favorite over Jennifer Lawrence – the Actor race boasts four performers who could possibly win. Let’s recap them:

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Mr. Bale was a bit of a surprise nominee and he’s the one that I see very unlikely to emerge victorious. As for the others – a 12 Years sweep could reward Ejiofor, though he’s won no major precursors. Same goes for Dern, though the Academy could pick him to honor his decades long career. As a side note – 2013 was unquestionably a strong year for lead actor roles. In lesser years – Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Joaquin Phoenix in Her, Robert Redford in All is Lost, or Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler would have been nominated.

The likely scenario is a battle between Mr. DiCaprio and Mr. McConaughey. With his acclaimed Dallas Buyers Club role, McConaughey is the frontrunner. He’s also won the lion’s share of precursor awards. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had a truly impressive career resurgence over the past couple of years.

With all that said, I have a gut feeling that DiCaprio’s chances are improving. Many of his performances have received raves yet he hasn’t taken home a gold statue. His work in Wall Street is among his most acclaimed performances and voters might feel like it’s his time.

While the argument for Leo is strong, it just isn’t enough for me (at this point) to go against McConaughey – though I’ll reserve my right to change picks in my final predictions post in a couple of weeks.

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club