Oscar Watch: The Theory of Everything

From the Venice to Telluride to Cannes to Toronto Film Festivals – we’ve seen a great number of Oscar hopefuls screen already that could easily be contenders at the end of the year. I’ve written about many of them – Foxcatcher. Boyhood. The Imitation Game. Birdman. This evening, I add James Marsh’s The Theory of Everything to the growing list.

This true story is based on Jane Hawking’s book. She is the now ex-wife of noted physicist Stephen Hawking and the film tells the tale of their romance and marriage. The couple is played by Eddie Redmayne (from Les Miserables) and Felicity Jones. Both performers are receiving considerable Oscar buzz for their roles.

Redmayne enters an already highly competitive and crowded field for Best Actor. Already – Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), and Michael Keaton (Birdman) appear shoo-ins for nominations. Based on reviews and festival reaction, so does Mr. Redmayne. The problem is there’s only five nominees and other contenders haven’t even been screened yet. Nevertheless, pencil his work in for a nod.

It isn’t totally clear whether Jones will be touted by the studio in the Actress or Supporting Actress category. The latter seems more probable. Either way- count on her being nominated.

Audience reaction at the Toronto Film Festival indicates it’s a crowd pleaser and, as of now, a Best Picture nomination seems more likely than not. It’s a bit tougher to gage whether Marsh will be recognized and we’ll have to see how the Director race plays out over time.

As always, I’ll be updating Academy Award possibilities as they come!

 

Oscar Watch: Bill Murray in St. Vincent

The Toronto Film Festival kicked off two days ago and you can expect the Oscar picture will become a bit clearer once some of the heavyweights are screened over the next few days.

One such picture is St. Vincent, which debuted last night as part of Bill Murray Day at the festival. For movie lovers, though, isn’t everyday Bill Murray Day??

Reaction to the pic has been quite positive, though its reviews suggest it could have an uphill battle to be recognized in the Best Picture race. On the other hand, Mr. Murray could be in position to receive his second Best Actor nomination, eleven years after his first for Lost in Translation. There’s already stiff competition – as Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Michael Keaton (Birdman), and Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) also seem to be likely nominees with several other actors films having not yet screened.

Still, Murray is a living legend and if St. Vincent connects with audiences, he could certainly be in the running. St. Vincent opens domestically on October 24.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

We’ve reached the last day for my first round of Oscar predictions and that means we’ve arrived at the biggest category of them all – Best Picture! If you missed my other five posts covering Director and all four acting races, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/02/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-director/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/01/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/31/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/30/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Since 2011, the Best Picture race is the only category where there can be more than five nominees and it can range anywhere between 5-10. In each of the three years since the system was put in place, there have been nine nominated films. I’m going against the trend (call it a gut feeling, subject change) and predicting the magic number will be eight in 2014. And with that, my first predictions for Best Picture, with other possible nominees listed after:

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Picture

Birdman

Boyhood

Foxcatcher

The Imitation Game

Interstellar

Selma

The Theory of Everything

Unbroken

 

Other Possibilities:

American Sniper

Big Eyes

Fury

Gone Girl

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Inherent Vice

Into the Woods

Men, Women, and Children

A Most Violent Year

Mr. Turner

Wild

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

On Day 5 of my first round of 2014 Oscar Predictions, we arrive at Best Director and tomorrow – we’ll get to the big daddy, Best Picture! If you missed my four posts covering the acting races, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/09/01/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/31/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/30/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

As with the others, I’ll list my five current predicted nominees with other possibilities listed below. FYI – my initial round of Director predictions last year yielded 3 of the 5 eventual nominees. Here we go:

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Director

Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Birdman

Angelina Jolie, Unbroken

Richard Linklater, Boyhood

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Christopher Nolan, Interstellar

 

Other Possibilities:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel

David Ayer, Fury

Tim Burton, Big Eyes

JC Chandor, A Most Violent Year

Ana DuVernay, Selma

Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

David Fincher, Gone Girl

Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner

James Marsh, The Theory of Everything

Rob Marshall, Into the Woods

Jason Reitman, Men, Women, and Children

Martin Tyldum, The Imitation Game

Jean-Marc Vallee, Wild

Best Picture predictions tomorrow!

 

 

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day 4 is here with my initial round of Oscar predictions and we’re at Best Actor. Interestingly, the seventeen actors I have listed as possibilities have never won the award previously. As with the other categories, I am listing my five predicted nominees along with others who could find themselves in the mix. To peruse my other posts covering the Supporting races and Actress, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/31/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/30/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

When I did my first estimates for 2013, it yielded only two of the five eventual nominees including winner Matthew McConaughey. Let’s get to it:

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Actor

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Michael Keaton, Birdman

Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

 

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Gone Girl

Chadwick Boseman, Get On Up

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Jake Gyllenhall, Nightcrawler

Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year

Bill Murray, St. Vincent

Jack O’Connell, Unbroken

David Oyelowo, Selma

Brad Pitt, Fury

Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher

We’ll get to Best Director tomorrow and Picture on Wednesday!

Oscar Watch: The Imitation Game

Another day, another potential Oscar contender to discuss on the blog. This time it’s The Imitation Game from the Weinstein Company, which had its world premiere this weekend at the Telluride Film Festival and opens domestically November 21. The film is a biopic of Alan Turing, known for cracking Nazi codes during World War II and, based on early buzz, the man playing Turing is receiving the most awards talk.

That would be Benedict Cumberbatch, best known to viewers as TV’s “Sherlock” and pictures including Star Trek Into Darkness and 12 Years a Slave. He has yet to receive an Oscar nomination, though it could certainly change based on initial reviews of his work here. Cumberbatch joins a Best Actor race that already seems ultra competitive (just like last year) and I’ll have my first predictions in that race on the blog tomorrow.

The Imitation Game could potentially be a player in the Picture, Director (Morten Tyldum), and Supporting Actress (Keira Knightley) categories. The Weinstein studio is better than any other at generating Oscar buzz for their works. Yet Telluride gave the biggest boost to Cumberbatch and he’s a likely name to be seen when nominations are announced early next year.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Today we’ve arrived at day 3 of my first round of Oscar predictions and that means Best Actress is on deck. If you missed my early calls for the Supporting categories, you can read them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/30/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We’ll get to Actor, Director, and Picture soon enough – but for now, here’s my list of my current Actress predictions with other possibilities also listed. In my original Actress predictions in 2013, I yielded four of the five eventual nominees, so we’ll see if that holds true here, too!

Let’s get to it!

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Actress

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Reese Witherspoon, Wild

 

Other Possibilities:

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year

Julianne Moore, Map to the Stars

Hilary Swank, The Homesman

Mia Wasikowska, Tracks

Shailene Woodley, The Fault In Our Stars

Best Actor will be up tomorrow!

Oscar Watch: Wild

Last year, Jean-Marc Vallee directed two actors to Oscar wins – Matthew McConaughey for Actor and Jared Leto for Supporting Actor in Dallas Buyer’s Club. In 2014, history could repeat itself with the difference being Vallee potentially helming two actresses to Academy glory. The film is Wild and the actresses are Reese Witherspoon and Laura Dern. Wild tells the true story of a woman who hikes the over thousand mile Pacific Coast Trail by herself.

The picture recently premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and it opens domestically December 5. Early reviews are very positive, especially for Witherspoon. As you may recall, she won Best Actress some nine years ago in Walk the Line. Since then, decent roles for Reese have been few and far between and Wild is likely to be considered a comeback movie (something Hollywood loves).

Based on early buzz, it’s hard to imagine Witherspoon not being nominated in the Actress category. Whether or not Wild gets recognized for Picture, Director, or Dern’s lauded work in the Supporting Actress race remains to be seen. Yet the pic’s festival debut has definitely given us our first nearly surefire name for Best Actress.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

We’ve arrived at Day #2 of my first Oscar predictions covering the films of 2014. If you missed my post yesterday on Best Supporting Actress, you may find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

For round 1 of my predictions, I’m just listing my current five predictions, along with other possibilities in races that are just beginning to take shape. Let’s get to Best Supporting Actor, shall we? I will note that my inaugural 2013 picks done around the same time last year correctly yielded 2 of the 5 eventual nominees.

Todd’s Early Predictions for Best Supporting Actor

Domhall Gleeson, Unbroken

Logan Lerman, Fury

Edward Norton, Birdman

Tim Roth, Selma

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

 

Other Possibilities:

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice

Albert Brooks, A Most Violent Year

Benicio del Toro, Inherent Vice

Johnny Depp, Into the Woods

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Matthew Goode, Men, Women, and Children

Neil Patrick Harris, Gone Girl

Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

John Lithgow, Love is Strange

Adam Sandler, Men, Women, and Children

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

We’ll get to Best Actress tomorrow!

 

 

 

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

As the fall movie season officially gets underway, that means a host of Oscar contenders will be opening between September and December, with many of them screening at upcoming film festivals – including Toronto, Telluride, New York, and Venice. What does that mean? My first round of Oscar predictions has arrived at the blog!

You may say it seems too early to start predicting Oscar nominees? This is true… to a point. At this same time last year, I did my first early predictions. In today’s first category – Supporting Actress – those predictions yielded three out of the five nominees, including Lupita Nyong’o from Twelve Years a Slave, the eventual winner. For followers of my blog, you’ll know that I’ll be consistently refining and updating my predictions until nominations are announced in early 2015.

Today – we begin with Supporting Actress. Tomorrow: Supporting Actor. Sunday: Actress. Monday: Actor. Tuesday: Director. Wednesday: Picture.

We’ll keep it simple for the early predictions. I will just list my round of five that I’m currently predicting along with a subsection of other possible nominees. Enjoy!

Todd’s Early Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Laura Dern, Wild

Carmen Ejogo, Selma

Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

 

 
Other Possible Nominees:

Jessica Chastain, Interstellar

Jennifer Garner, Men, Women, and Children

Anne Hathaway, Interstellar

Anna Kendrick, Into the Woods

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

Maya Rudolph, Inherent Vince

Emma Stone, Birdman

Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice

Emily Watson, The Theory of Everything

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Oprah Winfrey, Selma

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back with my early guesstimates for Supporting Actor tomorrow…