Category: Oscar Predictions

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We have arrived at the Best Director portion of my incredibly early Oscar predictions for 2015. When I made predictions in this category last year for 2014 pics, it yielded 3 of the five eventual nominees and the other two were listed as other possibilities.

In the Director race, it’s safe to assume that all predicted directors will likely see their pictures nominated as well (my Best Picture prognostications will be up tomorrow). My current field includes three previous winners: Danny Boyle for Steve Jobs (he won in 2008 for Slumdog Millionaire), Tom Hooper for The Danish Girl (he won in 2010 for The King’s Speech), and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant (he won just last year for Birdman). Other previous recipients like Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), Robert Zemeckis (The Walk) and Ron Howard (In the Heart of the Sea) are certainly possible as well.

David O. Russell’s last three projects (The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook) have been showered with Oscar love so I’ll include him for December’s Joy. And Carol has been receiving festival raves and that could bode well for Todd Haynes.

Others to keep an eye out for: if The Hateful Eight garners the kind of love that Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained did, Quentin Tarantino could find himself in the mix. And don’t count out George Miller, whose direction in particular was lauded for this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road.

And with that:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

David O. Russell, Joy

Other Possibilities:

Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Scott Cooper, Black Mass

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Sarah Gavron, Suffragette 

Michael Grandage, Genius

Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea

Angelina Jolie, By the Sea

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Jay Roach, Trumbo

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Paolo Sorrentino, Youth

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Denis Villeneueve, Sicario

Robert Zemeckis, The Walk

If you missed my previous entries covering the acting categories, they’re linked here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/03/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/02/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Today we arrive at the final post in my very early Oscar predictions and that means the biggest category of them all: Best Picture. In 2014, when I did my initial round of predictions for 2014 pics, it correctly called 5 of the 8 eventual nominees. A total of 7 of the 8 were mentioned with two being listed in other possibilities.

Obviously the film festival season (Telluride, Venice, Toronto, New York, etc…) is just getting underway in which many of the contenders will be screened. It won’t be until late November and early December before the majority of the heavy hitters will have their word of mouth. Yet here’s how I see it currently at this early juncture:

Todd Haynes’s period piece same sex love story Carol premiered to raves at Cannes and appears to be a legit contender at press time.

Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl is another period piece about the first transgender individual and features last year’s Best Actor winner Eddie Redmayne. Hooper won Best Director in 2010 for The King’s Speech, which was awarded Best Picture. His last effort, Les Miserables, was also nominated.

David O. Russell has seen his last 3 pics nominated for the big prize – The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and American Hustle. This December’s Joy with Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro, and Bradley Cooper could join the mix.

Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu won Best Director last year for Birdman, which won Picture as well. His December release The Revenant with Leonardo DiCaprio is already receiving major buzz.

You can never count out Steven Spielberg and this fall’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies is an obvious choice for consideration.

Same goes for the Danny Boyle directed/Aaron Sorkin scripted biopic Steve Jobs with Michael Fassbender and Kate Winslet.

The period piece women’s voting rights tale Suffragette features Carey Mulligan, Meryl Streep, and Helena Bonham Carter and if solid reviews materialize, you have to put it in the mix.

Quentin Tarantino has seen his last two blockbusters – Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained – receive nominations so you cannot count out December’s The Hateful Eight.

There are other biopics to consider – Don Cheadle’s Miles Ahead about iconic musician Miles Davis, I Saw the Light with Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams, Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, and Bryan Cranston as Trumbo. 

As for films already released, it’s totally possible that Pixar’s acclaimed Inside Out could give the studio its second Picture nod (after 2009’s Up). And if some of this autumn’s releases don’t meet expectations, don’t be shocked if the summer blockbuster and critical darling Mad Mad: Fury Road starts getting another look.

One feature that I’m a bit surprised to see hardly mentioned in the Oscar talk: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It’s only the most eagerly anticipated release of the year (in many years actually). If reviews are strong, it could certainly get attention. It remains to be seen though.

As Academy watchers know, anywhere from five to ten movies can be nominated. Ever since the Oscars have gone to that system, nine has been the magic number yet there were eight last year. I’ll go with 8 for now, but that may well fluctuate as future predictions come to the blog. Here we go:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST PICTURE

Bridge of Spies

Carol

The Danish Girl

The Hateful Eight

Joy

The Revenant

Steve Jobs

Suffragette

Other Possibilities:

Black Mass

Brooklyn

By the Sea

Freeheld

Genius

Inside Out

In the Heart of the Sea

I Saw the Light

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

Miles Ahead

Sicario

Spotlight

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The Walk

Youth

And there you have it, folks! My first batch of Oscar predictions for the year. Expect a second round in October…

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

How about this for a 2015 Best Actor category? You could have Miles Davis, Steve Jobs, Dalton Trumbo, Whitey Bulger, Dan Rather, Hank Williams, Edward Snowden, and Lance Armstrong all competing against one another? Yep, it’s true as this year’s possibilities contain a number of high-profile performers playing real life characters.

Today is part four of my very early Oscar predictions. In 2014, I made my initial round at the same time. For the races of Best Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress, these early 2014 prognostications yielded just two of the eventual five nominees. Yet last year in the Best Actor race, they correctly predicted four of the five eventual nominees and the fifth was mentioned in the other possibilities section.

Back to the real life folks. Of the many I mentioned, I currently only have Don Cheadle’s work as Miles Davis in Miles Ahead and Michael Fassbender’s portrayal of Steve Jobs getting in. Fassbender, it should be noted, also remains a contender for this fall’s Macbeth. Any of the others mentioned could bubble up: Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, Robert Redford as Dan Rather in Truth, Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams in I Saw the Light, Ben Foster as Lance Armstrong in The Program, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Snowden. Like Fassbender, Gordon-Levitt could be a contender for Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, too.

Last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne has a showy role in the period piece transgender drama The Danish Girl and he could easily see a second nod in as many years. Beloved veteran thespian Michael Caine has received raves for Youth. And Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s yet to win, is sure to receive attention for December’s The Revenant. 

As festivals begin to roll on and some of these aforementioned films will be reviewed, the picture should continue to become clearer. As for now:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Michael Caine, Youth

Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Bradley Cooper, Burnt

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Michael Fassbender, Macbeth

Colin Firth, Genius

Ben Foster, The Program

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden

Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Tom Hardy, Legend

Tom Hiddleston, I Saw the Light

Brad Pitt, By the Sea

Robert Redford, Truth

Best Director will be up tomorrow with Best Picture on Saturday! Stay tuned…

If you missed my previous posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/02/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/08/29/todds-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

This evening on the blog, we continue on with my very early and first predictions for the 2015 Oscars and we’ve come to Best Actress. This category, just like Supporting Actor and Actress, yielded two out of the five nominees when I made my predictions in 2014 with 1 other that was nominated being mentioned as an other possibility.

Astonishingly, the group of actresses that could be honored in 2015 encompasses seven out of the eight past winners of the award. 2007 winner Marion Cotillard is getting buzz for Macbeth, though it’s unclear whether she’ll be campaigned for here or in supporting. 2008 winner Kate Winslet has this fall’s The Dressmaker. 2009 winner Sandra Bullock headlines this October’s Our Brand is Crisis. 2011’s Meryl Streep had Ricki and the Flash last month. It’s always foolish to count her out, but the film’s low box office and mixed critical response could hinder her chances. 2012’s Jennifer Lawrence teams with David O. Russell again for Joy and her two previous films with him both landed her Oscar nods and a win for Silver Linings Playbook. 2013’s Cate Blanchett seems practically guaranteed a nod for Todd Haynes’s Carol, which premiered to raves at Cannes. 2014’s Julianne Moore has Freeheld out soon and it could make her a contender again.

Ultimately, however, my early predictions only have two of these women ending up with nominations. Alicia Vikander (who made a splash already this year with Ex Machina) is bound to get attention for Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl. Carey Mulligan stars in the womens voting rights drama Suffragette. Saoirse Ronan has already gotten raves on the festival circuit for this autumn’s immigration tale Brooklyn.

More possibilities abound. Veteran comedian/actress Lily Tomlin is being praised for the indie pic Grandma. Emily Blunt stars in the action drama Sicario this September. Angelina Jolie directs and stars in By the Sea. And we can’t count out Charlize Theron in this summer’s Mad Max: Fury Road, even though it’s difficult for the action genre to give us acting nominees. It is worth noting that it happened with Sigourney Weaver nearly 30 years ago with Aliens.

This race looks to be one of the most competitive with a whole lot of huge stars going for the prize. And here’s my first take:

TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy 

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

 

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Sandra Bullock, Our Brand is Crisis

Marion Cotillard, Macbeth

Angelina Jolie, By the Sea

Julianne Moore, Freeheld

Meryl Streep, Ricki and the Flash

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Kate Winslet, The Dressmaker 

For my previous posts with early predictions on Supporting Actor and Actress, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/01/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with part two of my impossibly early Oscar predictions for 2015, we move to Best Supporting Actor. As I mentioned in the previous Supporting Actress piece, the predictions that I did at this time of the year in 2014 yielded two out of the five eventual nominees. Same goes for Supporting Actor last year, though it’s worth noting that last year in early September – I mentioned all five eventual nominees in the predicted or other possibilities category.

Unlike Supporting Actress, where Rooney Mara seems to be a shoo in for a nod in Carol, there are no obvious nominees in this category as of yet. One thing seems very possible – Quentin Tarantino has a knack for getting his supporting players attention and that may bode well for either Kurt Russell or Samuel L. Jackson. Right now, I’ll give Russell the edge.

David O. Russell is also known for his performers receiving Academy love and his December release Joy could mean nods for either Bradley Cooper or Robert De Niro. We’ll go with Mr. Cooper at press time.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant could garner plenty of attention and Tom Hardy could benefit from it in this category. It doesn’t hurt that he’s had a terrific year coming off the acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road.

The Cannes Film Festival brought forth raves for the indie drama Youth and Harvey Keitel’s work in it while this fall’s Steven Spielberg drama Bridge of Spies seems to have a major supporting role for character actor Mark Rylance.

Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs may mean nods for either Jeff Daniels or Seth Rogen. The Brian Wilson biopic Love and Mercy has both John Cusack and Paul Dano (depending on who the studio puts in which category). The Catholic Church sex scandal drama Spotlight has Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. Past winner Benicio del Toro is said to be a standout in this September’s Sicario. And on and on.

In other words, lots of possibilities here and we shall see how it shakes out. For now:

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, Joy

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Other Possibilities:

Steve Carell, Freeheld

John Cusack, Love and Mercy

Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Robert De Niro, Joy

Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Jude Law, Genius

Ewan McGregor, Miles Ahead

Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis

And that’ll do it for now! Best Actress coming up tomorrow…

You can peruse my Supporting Actress early picks here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/30/2015-early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

 

2015 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

It’s hard to believe but we are two thirds of the way through the calendar year and that means my first round of incredibly early Oscar predictions are making their way to the blog! Some caveats: it’s early. Real early. Truth be told, most of the main contenders in all the major categories will be rolling out in the fall. Many will be screening at the upcoming film fests like Toronto and New York, among others. As always, those festivals will help the picture become clearer over the next couple of months. Usually by Thanksgiving or early December, we’ve got a pretty good idea on how things are looking.

That said, I started my predictions for 2014 at the same time last year. In the Supporting Actress race, which I’m covering today, my impossibly early predictions yielded two of the five eventual nominees, Laura Dern for Wild and winner Patricia Arquette in Boyhood. It’s also worth noting that I predicted Felicity Jones for The Theory of Everything, who was nominated in the Lead Actress category. Let’s talk about how things look right now:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Already we seem to have one performer who appears to be a shoo in for a nod: Rooney Mara for Todd Haynes’s 1950s set lesbian romance Carol, which premiered to raves at the Cannes Film Festival earlier this summer. It would be very shocking not to see Mara included, unless she’s campaigned for in the Actress race. That seems unlikely because the studio should be putting her costar Cate Blanchett in that race.

After that – much uncertainty. The Irish immigration drama Brooklyn hit the festival circuit to a rapturous response and that could bode well for Julie Walters. Director Quentin Tarantino knows how to get his actors nominated which could mean a nom for The Hateful Eight’s Jennifer Jason Leigh. Director David O. Russell is exceptional at seeing his performers gets nods and his December release Joy could see kudos for either Virginia Madsen or Diane Ladd (I’m leaving both off, for now).

Elizabeth Olsen has had some critically applauded roles and her performance as Hank Williams’ wife in the biopic I Saw the Light could garner attention. So could Kate Winslet in the upcoming Steve Jobs biopic.

The rest of the large field is filled with familiar names and some not. Remember the name Emayatzy Corinealdi for her work in the Don Cheadle/Miles Davis biopic Miles Ahead. And we have previous winners like Blanchett, Jane Fonda, Julia Roberts, Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman and Rachel Weisz in the mix.

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Elizabeth Olsen, I Saw the Light

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

 

Other Possibilities:

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Cate Blanchett, Truth

Helena Bonham Carter,  Suffragette

Jessica Chastain, The Martian

Emayatzy Corinealdi, Miles Ahead

Marion Cotillard, Macbeth

Ann Dowd, Our Brand is Crisis

Jane Fonda, Youth

Nicole Kidman, Genius

Diane Ladd, Joy

Melanie Laurent, By the Sea

Laura Linney, Genius

Virginia Madsen, Joy

Helen Mirren, Trumbo

Ellen Page, Freeheld

Julia Roberts, The Secret in their Eyes

Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies

Meryl Streep, Suffragette

Rachel Weisz, Youth

And there’s part one of my early Oscar picks. Supporting Actor coming your way tomorrow…

Oscar Watch: Straight Outta Compton

Last weekend the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton became a cultural phenomenon, grossing an astonishing $60 million out of the gate. This rocketed past even the most lofty expectations. The film’s A Cinemascore grade prove audiences were very pleased. Its 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating show critics are behind it too.

This brings up a question that I wouldn’t have thought to ask even a week ago: could Straight Outta Compton get some Oscar love? The short answer: it’s possible but unlikely. Compton will need the help of at least two or three hotly anticipated autumn releases not to meet their awards potential. That often happens, but one other summer release (and a much different one) is currently the front runner for this season’s potential Picture nominees: Pixar’s Inside Out.

Still – Oscar voters could certainly show a cool factor and express themselves by bringing Compton into the mix. Its only real shot is probably a stand alone Best Picture nod. Director F. Gary Gray and the actors shouldn’t be a factor. For now, this blogger will say it’s a long shot, but we shall see how the next four and a half months plays out.

Oscar Watch: Brooklyn

When John Crowley’s period piece immigration drama Brooklyn premiered at the Sundance Film Festival earlier this year, it quickly vaulted itself into the world of Oscar buzz. This holds especially true for its star Saoirse Ronan, who plays a 1950s Irish woman who travels to that titled burrow and finds romance with an Italian (Emory Cohen, whose performance is also receiving kudos). Domnhall Gleeson and Jim Broadbent are among the costars but it’s the other female cast member, Julie Walters, who’s also meriting Academy nod talk in the Supporting Actress race.

If Ronan were to find herself in the Actress mix, it would be her first recognition in that category, though she did pick up a Supporting Actress nomination for 2007’s Atonement. The pic appears to be somewhat similar in plot to Jim Sheridan’s 2003 acclaimed In America, which received nods for Screenplay, Actress (Samantha Morton) and Supporting Actor (Djimon Hounsou).

Early reviews are glowing (it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes) and Brooklyn appears likely at this juncture to be a player in the Best Picture derby with Ronan seeming like a lock. The film premieres stateside on November 6.

Oscar Watch – Mad Max: Fury Road

A month ago it may have seemed a far fetched notion, but a current summer blockbuster begs the question – could Mad Max: Fury Road score a Best Picture nomination come Oscar time? It’s possible. George Miller’s reboot and his fourth directorial effort in the franchise (some 30 years after the last one) has received high critical acclaim and fine box office numbers. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 98% and that’s certainly greater than some other Academy nominated flicks will receive.

The solid argument could be made that it’s precisely movies like Fury Road that caused the Academy to expand its number of Picture nominees in 2009 to anywhere from five to ten. It happened immediately after the enormously grossing and critically lauded Dark Knight failed to make the five picture cut the year prior. Obviously much will depend on what follows in the next six and a half months but don’t count out Max for potential Oscar attention. Same goes for its well regarded auteur Miller.

Even if it doesn’t score a nomination for the top category, it could show up elsewhere. While stars Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron are unlikely to find themselves in the acting mix, don’t be surprised if it lands nominations in the following down ticket races: Production Design, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects.

Oscar Watch: Macbeth

The 2015 Oscar race, still in its infancy, got a dose of Shakespeare today at the Cannes Film Festival when Macbeth premiered. The adaptation comes from director Justin Kurzel and features Michael Fassbender as the title character with Marion Cotillard as Lady Macbeth. Both performers have immediately vaulted to the top of the list for Best Actor and Actress. The film itself has received early raves and could be a contender for the big race. If so, it’d be the first screen treatment by the author to be recognized since 1968’s Romeo & Juliet.

This would mark Fassbender’s second nomination after being in the Supporting Actor mix in 2012 for 12 Years a Slave. For Cotillard, it would mark her second Actress nod in two years as she made the cut last year for Two Days, One Night. She won the award in 2007 for La Vie en Rose. It is only May and yet we may already know two of the nominees in those categories – Fassbender and Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl for Actor and Cotillard and Cate Blanchett for Carol in the Actress race.

Per usual, the Cannes fest has given us another Academy hopeful in the form of Macbeth.