The 2012 crop of Best Actor nominees is definitely one of the strongest fields of contenders we’ve had in quite some time. In a lesser field, we likely would have seen such nominees as John Hawkes in The Sessions. Or Richard Gere in what’s said to be a career-best performance in Arbitrage. Or Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained. Or Suraj Sharma in Life of Pi. Perhaps Jake Gyllenhall for his fine work in End of Watch. None were nominated.

In a different field of nominees, Denzel Washington’s astonishing performance in Flight might win. He’s nominated and won’t win.

In a different field of nominees, Joaquin Phoenix’s brilliant work in The Master might win. He’s nominated and won’t win.

In a different field of nominees, Hugh Jackman might win for what is considered the best role so far in his career for Les Miserables. He’s nominated and won’t win.

In a different field of nominees, the momentum of Silver Linings Playbook might cause Bradley Cooper to be recognized for his work, which is equally as great as his co-star Jennifer Lawrence, who may very well win. He’s nominated and won’t win.

That’s because this field of nominees includes Daniel Day-Lewis as Lincoln. No need to go into much explanation here. He’s won pretty much every major precursor that exists, including the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award.

If Day-Lewis does not win for Steven Spielberg’s film, it would constitute one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history.

But, you see, Daniel Day-Lewis is nominated. And he will win. And he will become the first performer ever to win the Best Actor award three times.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

The Best Actress category for this year’s Academy Awards, airing Sunday, is indeed a competitive one. The race has actually made some history by nominating its youngest actress ever, 9 year-old Quevenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild, as well as its oldest, 85 year-old Emmanuelle Riva for Amour.

Neither seems very likely to take home the gold and neither does Naomi Watts for her work in The Impossible. For quite a while now, this race seems to be a strong competition between Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. 

Let’s take a look at some of the major Oscar precursors and who they honored. While the British awards (the BAFTA’s) honored Riva and the New York Film Critics honored Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea (she’s not nominated here), the rest of the story shows an even split among Chastain and Lawrence. The Critics Choice Awards and the National Board of Review went with Chastain. The SAG awards and L.A. Film Critics honored Lawrence. The biggest Academy precursor, the Golden Globes, has two separate categories: one for Drama and one for Musical/Comedy. The winners? Chastain and Lawrence, respectively.

While Wallis and Watts’s chances are next to none, the potential for a spoiler could be Riva. However, I’ll stick with my assertion that this is pretty much a two-woman competition. Both have a great shot at winning. They’re both relatively new to the scene, but both Chastain and Lawrence are recent past nominees. Lawrence was nominated for Actress in 2010 for Winter’s Bone. Chastain picked up a Supporting Actress nomination in 2011 for The Help. 

It’s a close call for a prediction, but at the end of the day, I’ll go with momentum. Zero Dark Thirty has lost momentum. Director Kathryn Bigelow was surprisingly snubbed. Meanwhile, Silver Linings Playbook is the first picture in 31 years where four performances were nominated in the four acting categories. The film has become a huge financial success, crossing the $100 million dollar mark just today. Audiences love it. Critics love it. And it doesn’t hurt Lawrence’s chances that she’s been on an amazing roll lately. In 2012, besides her lauded role here, she also starred in one of the year’s mega blockbusters, The Hunger Games.

Add all that up and I’m predicting Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Actress on Sunday night.

Continuing with my final Oscar predictions this week for the ceremony that airs this Sunday, we move onto Best Supporting Actor.

While the Supporting Actress category seems about a 99.9% probability to go to Anne Hathaway, this race is much more competitive. Just to give you an idea, the precursor awards have been all over the map. The big city critics group even honored two actors that aren’t nominated here. The New York Association bestowed their award to Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike and Bernie, while the L.A. critics named Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Also, the National Board of Review honored another actor not nominated here, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained.

As for the people actually nominated, both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA’s honored Christoph Waltz for Django. The Critics Choice Awards named Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master. The SAG award went to Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. The other two nominees, Alan Arkin for Argo and Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, have picked up no major precursors.

You don’t say this often about a major category, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to hear any of the five nominees have their name called. Of all the six big races, this seems most likely for an “upset”. Major momentum for Argo or Silver Linings could sway the vote to Arkin or De Niro. That “upset” possibility seems most likely for Mr. De Niro.

I would actually be most surprised to hear Hoffman’s name called, but it’s not out of the question. Waltz is a very real contender, but the fact that he won just three years ago for Inglourious Basterds could hurt his chances.

That leaves us with Tommy Lee Jones. He’s received some of the best reviews of his career in his long and illustrious career for Lincoln. It’s been 19 years since he won for The Fugitive. 

As I said, this is a difficult race to make a final call on. I’m going with Tommy Lee, though, for the win.

Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

We move today to the six major categories for the Academy Awards, airing next Sunday.

In the Best Supporting Actress category, this race was basically over before it started. Anne Hathaway’s performance as Fantine in Les Miserables was seen as the likely choice for the win. That never changed at all. Those with knowledge of the play knew that this was a meaty role. Couple this with the fact that Hathaway is a popular Hollywood starlet who’s given fine performances in The Devil Wears Prada and Love and Other Drugs only helped. Also, she gave a well-received performance in last summer’s blockbuster The Dark Knight Rises. 2012 was a watershed year for Hathaway.

The Oscar precursors have been very kind. Hathaway has picked up the Golden Globe, the SAG award, the BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Award. Of all the six major categories, this one (and another we’ll get to soon) seem the easiest to pick. Simply put, it would be a major shock if Hathaway doesn’t take home the gold statue.

As for the other nominees, Sally Field’s work as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln seems to be the other performance with a small (quite small) chance of an upset. Field is a well-respected actress who’s won two previous Oscars in the leading Actress category. She did pick up the New York Critics award.

The other three nominees should consider the nomination their victory. Amy Adams did win the L.A. Film Critics Award for The Master, but she’s got no real chance. The other nominees are Helen Hunt in The Sessions and Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook.

The Best Supporting Actress award will go to Ms. Hathaway and I’m supremely confident in the pick.

Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

My FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions posts will continue with Best Supporting Actor.

With the Seth MacFarlane hosted Academy Awards set to air one week from today, it’s time to delve into my predictions for what will win in every category. Well, almost every category. I will not pretend to know what might be victorious in the “non-feature” races like documentary feature and short subject and animated and live-action short film. Everything else is on the table for predictions.

For your reading purposes, here’s the schedule of my predictions for winners:

Today: All Categories Outside the “Big Six” Races

Monday: Best Supporting Actress

Tuesday: Best Supporting Actor

Wednesday: Best Actress

Thursday: Best Actor

Friday: Best Director

Saturday: Best Picture

This should leave you just enough time to blame me if you go by my predictions in your office Oscar pool. So let’s get started. In each race, I’ll list the nominees and reveal my pick to win. And away we go:

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour (Austria)

Kon-Tiki (Norway)

No (Chile)

A Royal Affair (Denmark)

War Witch (Canada)

Prediction: Amour. The foreign film category can be tricky to predict in some years, but 2012 appears to be an exception. Michael Haneke’s Amour is also nominated for Best Picture and the director was nominated as well. This all points to a very high probability that Amour wins in this race.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Prediction: Argo. All five selections are also nominated for Best Picture as well. This one appears to be a race between Argo and Lincoln, with Silver Linings as a dark horse. Argo seems to be gaining momentum at the right time, so I’m going with screenwriter Chris Terrio picking up the statue, though if Lincoln has a good night, who knows?

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Django Unchained. This category is looking like a repeat of 2009, when Mark Boal won the award for Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker over Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds. In 2012, I look for that to be reversed. Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty seems to have lost momentum (especially with Bigelow’s directing snub) and Boal will likely find himself losing to Mr. Tarantino. If there’s any dark horse, it’s Moonrise Kingdom, but this appears to be a two film race.

Best Animated Feature Film

Brave

FrankenWeenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph. In a solid year for animated features, this looks to be a race between Ralph and Brave. Even though Pixar usually cleans up in this category, Brave was not met with the major acclaim afforded to titles like The Incredibles, Wall-E, and Up. I will go with Wreck-It Ralph for the win, even though a Brave victory would not be a big surprise.

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Prediction: Life of Pi. Ang Lee’s picture is a marvelous technical achievement on all levels and I expect Claudio Miranda will be honored here. A Lincoln win is not out of the question, but Pi should be the front runner.

Best Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Prediction: Anna Karenina. This is the kind of lush period piece that seems suited to win this category. Les Mis is certainly a contender and a big night for Lincoln could mean a victory here, but Keira Knightley + corsets should = win.

Best Film Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Argo. This is actually a really tough one. Lincoln could take the prize. So could Life of Pi. This also seems to be the one category that Zero Dark has a legit shot at. In the end, I think the Argo-mentum gives it the edge. Not a whole lot of confidence here though.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. The makeup work for Hitchcock was actually met with a fairly tepid response, so this appears to be a two film race. I’ll give the edge to the Hobbit team.

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Prediction: Life of Pi. Here’s another one that could go to multiple nominees – I see Argo, Pi, and Lincoln as contenders. I’ll go with Mychael Danna’s work in the Ang Lee film, but don’t be surprised to see either of the others pick it up.

Best Original Song

“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice

“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted

“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi

“Skyfall” from Skyfall

“Suddenly” from Les Miserables

Prediction: “Skyfall” from Skyfall. A few months ago, you might have figured an original tune from Les Mis would be the obvious choice. That was until Adele’s terrific Bond theme came out. I’ll pick the British superstar for the victory with a high degree of confidence.

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Prediction: Anna Karenina. This is another tough call. Formerly called the Best Art Direction category, this race favors period pieces. Les Mis has a real shot here, as does Lincoln. Still, Karenina is in the mix and I’ll go with it winning this and Costume Design. Not a lot of confidence here.

Best Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Skyfall. Yet another very difficult choice! This could easily go three ways: Bond, Zero Dark, or Life of Pi. I’ll say the 007 team gets rewarded here, but picking any of the three I named makes perfect sense.

Best Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Prediction: Skyfall. Ugh, another tough one. I’m thinking they have to honor Les Mis with something in the technical categories, right? Still, 007 poses a very real threat here. I’m truly 50/50 on this. Maybe I’ve got too much Bond on the brain lately, but I’m sticking with 007.

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Prediction: Life of Pi. The amazing Pi visuals make this an obvious choice. The Hobbit has a small chance to spoil, but I would pick this category with no reservations.

And there you have it… my take on all the “other races”. We’ll get to the majors tomorrow with Best Supporting Actress. Stay tuned!

Now that the Oscar nominations have been out and I’ve posted my reactions a few days ago, we begin a feature in which I post where I think the six biggest categories currently stand. I will list each category and number the nominees in order of what I believe their chances of winning are. Here we go:

BEST PICTURE

Lincoln appears to be the frontrunner at this point, especially with Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Les Miserables not receiving nominations for their directors. The competition for Lincoln appears to be Life of Pi and possibly Silver Linings Playbook at this juncture.

1. Lincoln

2. Life of Pi

3. Silver Linings Playbook

4. Argo

5. Zero Dark Thirty

6. Les Miserables

7. Beasts of the Southern Wild

8. Django Unchained

9. Amour

BEST DIRECTOR

The Best Picture winner and Best Director tend to match up, but not always. We’ll leave Spielberg at the top, but I think there’s a very real chance of Ang Lee getting recognized for Life of Pi.

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

2. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

4. Michael Haneke, Amour

5. Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis is the clear and overwhelming favorite in the category. Anyone else winning would be a major surprise.

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

4. Denzel Washington, Flight

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

BEST ACTRESS

Still continues to be a real race between Chastain and Lawrence. They seem to have about an equal chance of winning at this point, but I’ll give an ever so slight edge to Chastain. Subject to change for sure.

1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

4. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Truly a tough call. I honestly wouldn’t be overly shocked if any of these nominees end up winning. Waltz winning the Golden Globe was a bit of a surprise and helped his possibilities. For now, I’ll say the success of Lincoln propels Jones.

1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

2. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Alan Arkin, Argo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the Best Actor race, we have a solid frontrunner here: Hathaway. Field has a shot, but it’s unlikely.

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

2. Sally Field, Lincoln

3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

4. Amy Adams, The Master

5. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

That’s all for now folks!

As you may have seen, the Oscar nominations were out bright and early this morning. Now it’s time to do the postmortem on my predictions and find out what it all means and what and whom may walk away with the gold.

Best Picture

How I Did: 8/9

Pretty happy with my Best Picture predictions! Most of all, I’m glad I hit the number nine pick on the head, as this category can be anywhere from 5-10 nominations. The eight films I correctly guessed: Amour, Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserbles, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty. My only misstep was including Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master back in my predictions. It ended up being the indie film Beasts of the Southern Wild that received the ninth slot instead.

Overall, no real surprises here. Beasts of the Southern Wild had been on my earlier prediction lists but eventually fell off and I always listed it as a contender. Skyfall and Moonrise Kingdom were two pics that seemed to be picking up steam. They didn’t make the cut and I never predicted they would. Most of all, I’m glad to see my Django pick turned out right! With this category, I’ll give myself a nice little pat on the back…

Best Director

How I Did: 2/5

And with these picks, you can slap me on the back as hard as you like. Still, I can’t feel that bad because nobody and I mean nobody envisioned the five directors that got nominated this morning.

Why? For starters, as I’ve written about, Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), and Ben Affleck (Argo) have been considered shoo-in nominees for a couple of months now. Many experts were predicting a close three-person race between them to win the award. The most shocking thing about the Oscar announcements today is easily the exclusion of Bigelow and Affleck for Best Director. I wasn’t as sure about my other pick, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables but figured he’d get in. He didn’t.

The three that replaced my picks: David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook which is not a big surprise. Then there’s Michael Haneke for Amour, which is a fairly big surprise. Then there’s Benh Zietlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild, which is a complete and utter jaw-dropping shock. The only other pick besides Spielberg I got right is Ang Lee for Life of Pi. How these nominations for Best Director affect the Best Picture cannot be overstated.

Let me explain in simple terms. When a movie wins Best Picture, it’s Director is always nominated. The last time that didn’t happen was 23 years ago when Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture and its director Bruce Beresford wasn’t nominated. In the 84-year history of the Oscars, a movie winning Best Picture without the director being nominated has happened three times. You do the math.

This is very unexpected because this year’s Oscars seemed to feature a really open field for Best Picture winner, much more than normal. Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty were all seen as very real possibilities to win the award. With these Best Director nominations shocking Hollywood, the race is totally reshaped. It is now highly unlikely that Argo or Les Mis or Zero Dark Thirty will win Best Picture. By my count, that leaves Lincoln as the undisputed front runner to nab the top award and Steven Spielberg in a position to take home his third directing honor.

I would expect both Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook to take those other three movies place as the dark horse candidates to win Best Picture and Director.

To add to the surprise, as I explained in my directing nominations predictions earlier this week, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominations are usually a safe prognosticator of this category. Those came out earlier this week and their five picks mirrored my predictions for the Oscar category. In the last ten years, the DGA nominations have exactly matched the Oscar nominations three times. It’s been four out of five – six times. It’s only been three out of five… just one time. This is the first time ever that only two DGA nominees became Best Director Oscar nominees. Wow.

Best Actor

How I Did: 4/5

As I’ve written about extensively, there were six actors competing for five slots. I incorrectly had Bradley Cooper from Silver Linings Playbook off the list. He made it and John Hawkes from The Sessions was the odd man out. I’m most pleased that I still included Joaquin Phoenix for The Master when most other predictors had him out. With Cooper and Phoenix in, they join Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Denzel Washington (Flight), and Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables).

Best Actress

How I Did: 4/5

Again, no major surprises here. I wrongly predicted Marion Cotillard for Rust and Bone and it was 9 year-old Quevenzhane Wallis from Beasts of the Southern Wild that made it instead. My four correct picks: Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty, Emmanuelle Riva in Amour, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook, and Naomi Watts in The Impossible. This category did make a bit of history today: Wallis, at 9, is the youngest ever nominated for this category and Riva, age 84, is the oldest ever recognized for this award.

Best Supporting Actor

How I Did: 4/5

Well, I picked the wrong Django actor. Instead of Leonardo DiCaprio, it was Christoph Waltz who made it Tarantino’s film. He’ll join my correctly predicted Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln, Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin in Argo. Little history here, too: this is the first time where all nominees are previous winners. Waltz won for another Quentin flick, Inglourious Basterds. Jones won in 1993 for The Fugitive. Hoffman won for Capote in 2005. De Niro won Supporting Actor in 1974 for The Godfather – Part II and Best Actor in 1980 for Raging Bull. Arkin won in 2006 for Little Miss Sunshine.

Best Supporting Actress

How I Did: 3/5

This is always a tough category to predict and I didn’t fare as well here. I correctly got Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, Helen Hunt in The Sessions, and Sally Field for Lincoln.  I incorrectly guessed Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Ann Dowd for Compliance, which I knew was a bit of an outside-the-box pick anyway. In their place for the two slots: Amy Adams for The Master and Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook. Strangely enough, my initial Supporting Actress predictions from October were exactly right! Guess I should have stuck with them, but alas only three for five here.

Other Observations

Silver Linings Playbook did something very rare today. By getting nominations in all four acting categories, it became the first picture to do that in 31 years, since 1981’s Reds. While Skyfall didn’t get that Best Picture nomination some were guessing, Adele got nominated and let’s hope she performs that great Bond theme during the ceremony!

So where does this leave us now that nominations are out? Before the ceremony, I’ll write a post predicting the winners. Here’s where my head’s at now:

As discussed, Lincoln is now the clear favorite to win Best Picture, based on the directors that were left out of that category. This leaves Spielberg as the favorite, too. However, the Academy showed a lot of love to Life of Pi today and I believe Ang Lee now poses a real threat to Spielberg.

For Best Actor, I’m glad I can finally say this since nominations are out: Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win. 99.9% sure. Only Jackman poses a small threat and by small, I mean .1%.

Best Actress still looks like a toss-up between Lawrence and Chastain, with Riva as a potential spoiler.

Best Supporting Actor looks more wide open and the possibility of a surprise winner is not hard to envision here. I would say Tommy Lee Jones is the slight favorite.

The category of Supporting Actress has seen its share of upset winners over the years. If anyone other than Anne Hathaway wins, it would be an upset. She is the clear front runner in this race.

So there you have it, my loyal readers! The nominations are out and I did pretty decent except for Best Director. Check back later for my final picks for winners, which I’ll make in every single category, as opposed to the six biggies I focused on here. Stay tuned!

And here we are. After multiple Oscar predictions posts over the last couple of months and final predictions for Best Director, Actor and Actress, and Supporting Actor and Actress through the week, we arrive at the biggest category of all… Best Picture.

Unlike all other races which are set at five nominees, the selections for Best Picture can be anywhere between five and ten films. This, of course, makes it tougher to predict but I gotta do what I gotta do.

Last year was the first time for the 5 through 10 format and 9 pictures were nominated. I am predicting that nine movies once again will make the cut.

In my mind, there are five shoo-in nominees: Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, Ben Affleck’s Argo, Tom Hooper’s Les Miserables, David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. If any one of these movies miss the cut, I’d be very surprised. Sitting at #6 as a near shoo-in is Ang Lee’s Life of Pi.

Then it gets complicated. Really complicated.

Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained is an enormous question mark. It’s tough to determine whether or not the Academy will honor it, with some of the controversy involved with it. Django is one of the best reviewed films of the year and it’s on its way to becoming Tarantino’s highest grosser ever. I have gone back and forth on whether I believe it gets in. At the end of the day, I’m predicting its nomination with the caveat that its exclusion will not surprise me all that much.

The French drama Amour was very well reviewed and has picked up some critic organizations awards. This one could also go either way. So could Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson’s comedy released last summer that seems to be gaining a lot of steam lately. The indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild has a lot of fans, too. So does The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, a British pic that did well at the box office. The tsunami drama The Impossible garnered solid reviews, as did Robert Zemeckis’s alcoholism drama Flight with Denzel Washington. There’s another French film, The Intouchables, which has gained traction out of nowhere all of a sudden.

Another picture that seems to gaining traction: a little flick called Skyfall. The 007 adventure could make history by being the first Bond movie to receive a Best Picture nomination. It is a very real possibility and its inclusion would not shock me.

Lastly, we come to Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master. When it was released in early fall, it was immediately considered a near shoo-in for a Best Picture nod. Then it started falling off the radar in a major way. Two factors contributed to this: while lots of critics adored it, others were ambivalent and audiences didn’t respond well. Also, a lot of the movies released after The Master made good on their Oscar potential – Lincoln, Argo, Les Mis, Life of Pi, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook. This has caused most Oscar prognosticators to leave The Master off the list, including me when I made my last round of predictions. So consider this my dark horse pick: I’m going against the conventional wisdom and putting it back in because I think those who love this movie really loved it. That might be enough to put it back in the mix.

I mentioned a number of films because I wanted to give you the names of all titles that I believe could possibly get in. Of course, not all of them can.

The Oscar nominations are out tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM Eastern time. After a lot of blogging and thinking, I will predict the nine movies that will be nominated for Best Picture tomorrow will be…

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE

Amour

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

The Master

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

 

 

With the Oscar nominations coming out Thursday morning, I have been blogging my nominee predictions in the six major categories. I’m through the acting predictions and this brings us to only Best Picture (coming tomorrow) and now… Best Director.

This category is often seen as a good prognosticator of the movies that will be nominated for Best Picture. As you may be aware, Best Picture nominees can be anywhere from five to ten films. All other categories are a finite five. With this new rule change that’s only been in effect since last year, it’s probably fair safe to assume that every director nominated will see their movie nominated, too. So here’s a good indication of movies I think will get Best Picture nominations when I reveal those tomorrow.

Just this afternoon, a major harbinger of the Best Director Oscar category was released… the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) nominations. This association nominates five directors for their award every year. To give you an idea of the consistency of DGA nods to Oscar nods, in the last 10 years these nominations have exactly matched three times. It’s been a 4 out of 5 ratio six times. And only a 3 to 5 ratio once. In other words, it’s quite safe to assume that 4 out of 5 DGA nominees will get Best Director Oscar nominations. And maybe even all five could match.

The five DGA nominees announced today: Ben Affleck for Argo, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables, Ang Lee for Life of Pi, and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. These are top five that I’ve been predicting on the blog for some time now and I’m having a hard time seeing any reason to change it….

Except for the fact that, more often than not, it’s only four out of five. So who could get in that didn’t get a DGA nod? The most likely is David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. There’s also Michael Haneke for Amour, whom several experts have been picking. If the Academy really goes for Django Unchained or Moonrise Kingdom, Quentin Tarantino or Wes Anderson, respectively, could sneak in. And Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in The Master is a long-shot possibility.

Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg appear to be shoo-ins. Lee and Hooper seem the most vulnerable. I think Lee’s beautiful visionary direction for Life of Pi keeps him in. I am much less confident in Tom Hooper for Les Mis and could easily see Russell replacing him.

At the end of the day though, I have to stick with the five directors I’ve been going with that just happen to be the DGA nominees from a few hours ago.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Be sure to check back tomorrow for my predictions for the big one – Best Picture!

With the Academy Award nominations coming out Thursday, this is part two of my series of FINAL predictions for what and whom will be recognized. We are at my predictions for Best Actor and Actress, with Best Director to come Tuesday and Best Picture on Wednesday.

BEST ACTOR

Let’s get this out of the way first: if Daniel Day-Lewis is not nominated for Lincoln, it would constitute one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history. There is no way that’s going to happen. None. If it happens, you can call me every name in the book publicly on Facebook. That’s my confidence level in that nomination.

After that, I don’t believe I’ve ever seen an Oscar race like this year’s for Best Actor. Why? As I’ve explained in previous posts, there are five other performances that would be shoo-ins in any other year. However, only four will make it in.

Those five performances are: John Hawkes in The Sessions, Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook, Denzel Washington in Flight, Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, and Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. There’s also Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, who remains a remote possibility if the French film really ends up taking off with voters.

In a weaker year, performances such as Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained and Richard Gere in Arbitrage, among others, would merit consideration.

You can make arguments for any of those five performers being left off. For Hawkes, The Sessions is a small film that didn’t really connect with audiences. If Helen Hunt doesn’t get a Supporting Actress nod for the movie (I’ve predicted she will), Hawkes could be in trouble.

For Denzel, Flight was once considered a contender for Best Picture. This doesn’t seem as likely now and Denzel could easily be the film’s only nomination… or perhaps the Academy ignores it altogether.

The Master was once considered a shoo-in for nominations for Picture and Director. This also seems much less likely now. Phoenix has missed out on the some of the precursors, too.

Bradley Cooper is still pretty new in the game, at least to Academy voters. His co-stars in Silver Linings Playbook like Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro have gotten the lions share of attention.

Hugh Jackman has received career best reviews for Les Miserables, but if the movie fails to get a Best Picture nomination (which seems unlikely) or Best Director (which could happen), there could be a ripple effect leaving Jackman out.

So there’s the arguments against each one, but the truth is, I’ve had a tougher time deciding which one gets left out more than any other category I’m predicting. But, I’ve got to pick and I’m not changing the five from my last post.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

As I’ve written about before, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty appear to be shoo-ins. Then there’s uncertainty.

Emmanuelle Riva, an 84 year old French actress has gotten a good deal of attention for Amour. Naomi Watts has gotten fine reviews for The Impossible. Quevenzhane Wallis is 9 years old and received great notices for starring in the indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild. Marion Cotillard also has received attention for indie film Rust and Bone. Rachel Weisz got some surprise precursor nominations and wins for this past spring’s thriller The Deep Blue Sea. Helen Mirren was singled out by critics for her performance as Mrs. Hitchcock in Hitchcock. 

Any one of these ladies could join Lawrence and Chastain on Thursday’s list and really no combination would shock me.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

All right, folks! Check back tomorrow when we cover Best Director!