Any thriller featuring the cast of The Counselor coupled with the fact that Ridley Scott (Alien, Blade Runner, Gladiator) is directing would vault it onto the list of Oscar hopefuls.
The Counselor also has the added bonus of having an original screenplay written by Cormac McCarthy, considered of the best novelists alive. If you’re not familiar with his literary works, you’re probably at least aware of some movies adapted from them: The Road, All the Pretty Horses, and the Oscar winning No Country for Old Men.
The film is a thriller about a lawyer (Michael Fassbender) who gets tangled up with some nefarious characters in the drug world. It’s got an impressive cast that includes Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, and Brad Pitt.
Oscar attention so far has focused on Picture and Director nominations, as well as the strong possibility that Mr. McCarthy gets an Original Screenplay nod. As far as the actors, it’s been Diaz and Bardem in their Supporting roles mentioned the most. Fassbender for Best Actor seems possible, but he’s also being touted already for Supporting Actor in 12 Years a Slave (I’ll have an Oscar Watch post on that one soon enough).
Director Scott saw his 2000 epic Gladiator take the top prize, but he lost Director to Steven Soderbergh for his work in Traffic. I would expect The Counselor to be a major factor in several races for 2013.
It’s got a cool story line, an all-star cast, and proven Oscar pedigree involved. December’s The Monuments Men joins American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street as films worth mentioning in the Academy Awards race for 2013.
Last year, the Oscar for Best Picture went to Argo, from director-actor Ben Affleck and producers Grant Heslov and George Clooney. With Monuments, it’s Clooney behind the camera doing the directing duties along with producer Heslov. He’s also starring in it along with an impressive cast that includes Matt Damon, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Jean Dujardin, and Bill Murray.
The plot (based on a true story) centers around a team tasked with saving pieces of art and other cultural items in World War II Germany before Hitler and the Nazis destroy them. The trailer was released today. As soon as the project was announced, The Monuments Men immediately vaulted to the top of the list of Academy friendly sounding pictures.
It’s worth noting that if Monuments delivers on its potential and does go on to win Best Picture, it would mark the third winning title in a row to feature John Goodman after 2011’s The Artist and 2012’s Argo. I’ll have to check, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s a record.
The Monuments Men is likely to be a contender in the big race and Best Director. It remains to be seen if any of ensemble cast will be singled out (remember that only Alan Arkin was nominated for Argo). This is certainly one of my more anticipated fall releases. I’ll have more possible Oscar nominees for you to read about soon enough!
Earlier this week, I wrote about David O. Russell’s December release American Hustle as a strong contender for Oscar consideration in a number of categories:
Today, we take a look at The Wolf of Wall Street (out November 15), Martin Scorsese’s latest pic chronicling Wall Street greed and corruption in the 1980s. The film is described as a black comedy and you can sense that from the completely awesome trailer released weeks ago.
Martin Scorsese is a magnet for Academy voters and any movie directed by him is automatically a contender. Four of Marty’s last five efforts earned a Best Picture nomination (Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo). Certainly the movie and its director will be discussed for nominations. So will Leonardo DiCaprio for Best Actor. If he’s nominated, it would mark his fourth nomination (he’s yet to win). Supporting actors Matthew McConaughey and Jonah Hill may also be in the mix. This could be one heck of a year for McConaughey… he’s also being mentioned for awards consideration for his lead role in the upcoming Dallas Buyer’s Club and supporting for Mud, which was released earlier in the year.
And… if they could only have a category for Best Trailer, The Wolf of Wall Street should be nominated. Playing over Kanye West’s banging track “Black Skinhead”, this is the trailer I’ve watched over and over.
Don’t be surprised to see Scorsese and company back in the mix with Oscar voters in 2013. I know I can’t wait until November 15!
This fall’s American Hustle, directed by David O. Russell, may be the definition of a surefire Oscar contender.
The six well-known stars of the picture – Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Jeremy Renner, Robert De Niro – have a combined seventeen Oscar nominations and four wins. Of the six, five of them received nominations in films directed by David O. Russell:
Bale won Supporting Actor for The Fighter
Adams was nominated for Supporting Actress for The Fighter
Cooper was nominated for Actor for Silver Linings Playbook
Lawrence won Actress for Silver Linings Playbook
De Niro was nominated for Supporting Actor for Silver Linings Playbook
By the way, Russell’s last two pics (The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook) were nominated for Best Picture. Russell himself got Best Director nominations for both titles. Beyond his American Hustle actors, it’s also worth noting that Russell directed Melissa Leo to a Supporting Actress win for The Fighter and Jacki Weaver to a Supporting Actress nomination for Silver Linings Playbook. That’s an incredible seven acting nominations in Russell’s last two pics.
Here is the plot outline from the studio:
The Untitled David O. Russell Project is based on the true story of a notorious financial con artist (Bale) and his mistress/partner in crime (Adams), who were forced to work with an out of control federal agent (Cooper) to turn the tables on other con artists, mobsters, and politicians. At the epicenter of the entire tale, is the passionate and volatile leader of the New Jersey state assembly (Renner) who is also the local hero and mayor of impoverished Camden.
And just today, the trailer for the film was released. Bottom line: it looks terrific.
If Russell stays on his winning streak and the top-notch cast delivers, you could see all of them in the mix for potential Oscar nominations. Clearly, its December release hints that the studio feels that way too. Furthermore, this appears to be the type of film that may not only compete for a Best Picture nomination, but be talked about as a likely Best Picture winner. Stay tuned!
It has taken nearly seven months, but it appears this weekend brings us the first very legitimate contender to earn an acting nomination at the 2013 Oscars. That would be Cate Blanchett in the lead role of Woody Allen’s latest, Blue Jasmine.
The picture has earned solid reviews so far (81% on Rotten Tomatoes, an “A” grade from Entertainment Weekly today), but the word on Blanchett’s performance is rapturous.
An Oscar nomination for Blanchett is hardly rare. She received her first nomination for Best Actress in 1998 for Elizabeth, losing out to Gwyneth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love. In 2004, she won the Supporting Actress category for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator. Since then, Blanchett has been nominated three more times: for Supporting Actress in 2006 for Notes on a Scandal (lost to Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls), for Actress in 2007 for Elizabeth: The Golden Age (lost to Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose), and also in 2007 for Supporting Actress in I’m Not There (lost to Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton). A nod for Blue Jasmine would mark Cate’s sixth nomination.
An actor or actress being nominated for their work in a Woody Allen picture is also a common occurrence. There have been an astonishing 16 performers whose acting has been recognized by the Academy for their participation in an Allen film. Of those 16 nominations, we’ve seen six winners. They are:
Diane Keaton in Annie Hall (1977) – Actress category
Michael Caine in Hannah and Her Sisters (1986) – Supporting Actor category
Dianne Wiest in Hannah and Her Sisters (1986) – Supporting Actress category
Dianne Wiest in Bullets Over Broadway (1994) – Supporting Actress category
Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite (1995) – Supporting Actress category
Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) – Supporting Actress category
It’s worth noting that five of the six Allen directed winners are female and 11 of the 16 nominees total are women. Bottom line: Woody Allen knows how to write and direct roles for actresses to get nominated. Furthermore, he’s a master at casting.
Combine the high-level acting talent of Blanchett with the words of Mr. Allen and I would say this performance stands the greatest chance of any this year to get Oscar recognition for 2013 so far.
Well, we’re at the midpoint of the 2013 movie season and so it’s time to reveal what pictures have come out that could receive Oscar nominations.
The truth is… not many. At all. It is not rare for very few Best Picture contenders to be released in the first half of a calendar year. In 2010, only Toy Story 3 was among the ten nominees to be released in that time frame. In 2011, only Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris out of nine nominees. In 2012, only Beasts of the Southern Wild out of nine contenders.
2013 looks no different. While Iron Man 3 and Star Trek Into Darkness were well-reviewed and performed great at the box office, neither will be nominated. Critical indie pics like Mud and Frances Ha are long shots, at best. 42 was an audience favorite, but probably won’t be recognized. The Great Gatsby was a hit, but received mixed critical reaction and isn’t really a contender.
In fact, I would say only Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight, the third entry in his relationship drama series with Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy stands any real chance at a nomination. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it did get a nod, though that remains to be seen with the heavy hitters coming out this fall.
That basically means only Linklater stands a shot at a Best Director nomination, though I feel the film stands a better chance at recognition than the director.
Once again, only Ethan Hawke seems possible for a Best Actor nomination for Midnight, though I’d say it’s unlikely. His co-star Julie Delpy has a shot at Best Actress as well, as might Greta Gerwig for her performance in Frances Ha. In the Supporting Actor race, perhaps Matthew McConaughey could sneak in for his work in Mud, though he may have a better chance with this fall’s Wolf of Wall Street. If Supporting Actor ends up being extremely weak (doubtful), Harrison Ford has an outside chance for his portrayal of Branch Rickey in 42. I see no possibilities for Best Supporting Actress thus far.
In the writing categories, Before Midnight stands an excellent chance at getting an Original Screenplay nomination. Frances Ha is more of a long shot. I see no contenders in the Adapted Screenplay race.
Per usual, the blockbuster pics released so far stand more realistic chances in the technical categories. The Great Gatsby could pick up Art Direction and Costume Design nominations. Oz the Great and Powerful could contend in those categories, too. In the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories, look for possible nods for Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, and Iron Man 3. Both Star Trek and Man of Steel could land Makeup nominations (especially Trek). And for the Visual Effects category, the list is longer: Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Oz the Great and Powerful, and Oblivion. I see no major contenders in the Cinematography, Editing, or Score races.
Finally, for Animated Feature, we do have some possibilities: Monsters University, Epic, and The Croods. Monsters is practically a shoo-in.
So there you have it! Slim pickings for the Oscar race at this mid-year juncture. 2013 looks no different from normal years where the bulk of nominees will come later in the year.
If it seems a little early to be speculating on what movies might receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination for 2013… well, not really. Granted, most of these titles don’t even have trailers yet and the majority won’t be released until fall. Some don’t even have set release dates at the moment.
However, I realized that if this blog existed one year ago today and I had produced a list of 25 potential films, I would have included Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty. These composed six of the nine features nominated and the winner.
Scouring over the list of movies coming out in the remainder of the year, some things are for certain: there will be surprises. Films that come out of nowhere on the festival circuit that will become contenders. Also: some of the movies mentioned here will simply not pan out, not get very good reviews, and disappear from consideration. A 2012 example: Hyde Park on Hudson, with Bill Murray playing President Franklin D. Roosevelt. It certainly would have been on my list of consideration one year ago today. The picture was released, wasn’t well-received, and came and went quickly. Finally, I’m guessing at least five of the titles mentioned here will end up getting Best Picture nominations. Among the 25 titles I’m listing, I will note my Top Five most likely contenders for the big prize at this juncture.
And with that, here are 25 Early Best Picture Contenders for the 2013 Oscars:
August: Osage County
This family drama, from director John Wells (known more for his TV work on ER and The West Wing) has an impressive cast that includes Oscar darling Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Chris Cooper, and Ewan McGregor. Release Date: November 8.
Before Midnight
This is Richard Linklater’s third in his series of romantic dramas starring Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy, following 1995’s Before Sunrise and 2004’s Before Sunset. The two earlier titles received enormous critical acclaim and the Academy may feel it’s time to honor them by honoring this one. The picture screened recently at the Sundance Film Festival to very positive notices. Release Date: May 24.
Blue Jasmine
Woody Allen’s latest picture starring Alec Baldwin and Cate Blanchett. It’s a roll of the dice with Woody’s films. In 2011, his Midnight in Paris was his highest grosser of all time and earned a Best Picture nomination. In 2012, his To Rome in Love opened to mediocre reviews and box office and received zero awards attention. Impossible to know where this one falls, but it’d be foolish to leave it out of the running right now. Release Date: July 26.
The Butler
Director Lee Daniels got the attention of the Academy when his featurePrecious scored a Best Pic nod in 2009. His follow-up, last year’s The Paperboy, was met with critical scorn. The Butler sounds like more an awards contender, with Forest Whitaker playing a real life person who served as a White House butler for eight Presidents. The Butler will certainly garner attention for Whitaker’s performance. It includes an impressive supporting cast: John Cusack, Robin Williams, Oprah Winfrey, Alan Rickman, and Jane Fonda, among others. Release Date: October 18.
Captain Phillips
Paul Greengrass is the man responsible for directing the second and third Jason Bourne flicks, as well as United 93. This feature focuses on the Somali Pirate hostage incident of 2009 and stars Academy heavyweight Tom Hanks. Release Date: October 11.
The Counselor
Ridley Scott directs this thriller about an attorney (Michael Fassbender) who gets involved in the world of drug trafficking. Scott has directed his share of Best Pic nominees and winners, including Gladiator and Black Hawk Down. This boasts a heckuva supporting cast, including Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Release Date: November 15.
The Dallas Buyer’s Club
Matthew McConaughey has experienced a career resurgence as of late, with critically acclaimed performances in The Lincoln Lawyer, Magic Mike, and Bernie. This film could earn McConaughey an Oscar nod, playing a HIV positive man in the 1980s who begins smuggling alternative medicine into the U.S. McConaughey underwent a drastic weight loss to play the character. A nomination for him seems quite possible, but if audiences respond to the movie as well, it could be a contender. Release Date: Fall 2013.
Diana
Focusing on the last two years of Princess Diana’s life, Diana may garner the most Oscar attention for Naomi Watts’s performance as the Princess. Once again, though, if the film is really good… Release Date: Fall 2013.
Elysium
The sci-fi thriller is director Neil Blomkamp’s follow-up to 2009’s District 9, which received a Best Picture nomination. That alone makes it a contender. Elysium stars Matt Damon and Jodie Foster. Release Date: August 9.
Foxcatcher
Director Bennett Miller’s last two featues, 2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball, both received Best Picture nominations. This drama focuses on the real life case of John duPont’s killing of Olympic wrestler Dave Schultz. With Steve Carell as duPont and Mark Ruffalo as Schultz, expect the actors to receive Oscar attention as well. Release Date: Fall 2013. TOP FIVE CONTENDER
Fruitvale
This indie drama that premiered at Sundance recently inspired a bidding war among studios that the Weinstein Company won (the studio that knows how to get Oscar nominations). For some historical perspective, two 2009 nominees (Precious, An Education), two 2010 nominees (The Kids Are All Right, Winter’s Bone) and a 2012 nominee (Beasts of the Southern Wild) debuted as Sundance and were audience favorites, like Fruitvale was. So its chances seem solid at the moment. Release Date: Undetermined.
Grace of Monaco
Like Diana, this picture focusing on the life of actress and Princess Grace Kelly may get more awards attention for Nicole Kidman’s performance in the lead role, as well as costars Tim Roth and Frank Langella. And like Diana, it could get a Best Pic nomination depending on how good it is. Release Date: December 27.
Gravity
Director Alfonso Cuaron is one of the most acclaimed directors of the last decade, having made Y Tu Mama Tambien, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, and Children of Men. This sci-fi drama stars Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. Release Date: October 4.
The Great Gatsby
This one’s a big question mark. Director Baz Luhrmann’s retelling of the F. Scott Fitzgerald novel and 1974 Robert Redford film boasts an all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire. Gatsby was pushed back from its original Christmas 2012 release date, a time period usually reserved for more award-worthy material. Its summer 2013 release date may boost its box office potential, but not its awards potential. Release Date: May 10.
Inside Llewyn Davis
You can never count any Coen Bros movie out of the Best Picture race. Three out of their last four features have received nominations (No Country for Old Men, A Serious Man, True Grit). Davis focuses on the folk music scene in the 1960s and stars Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, and Justin Timberlake. Release Date: Fall 2013.
Labor Day
Director Jason Reitman saw two of his films in a row, 2007’s Juno and 2009’s Up in the Air, receive nominations before his follow-up, 2011’s Young Adult got zero attention. This drama, starring Kate Winslet, Josh Brolin, and Tobey Maguire, could be a return to form. Release Date: Fall 2013.
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
This Mandela biopic with Idris Elba in the title role could certainly receive attention for its star and the movie itself. It was picked up by the Weinstein Company and given a plum awards consideration debut slot. Release Date: November 29.
Monuments Men
George Clooney directs this World War II drama about a team of men sent to Germany to save priceless pieces of art before Hitler destroys them. With an all-star cast including Clooney, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Bill Murray, Jean Dujardin, and Matt Damon, this one is undoubtedly a major contender. Release Date: December 18. TOP FIVE CONTENDER
A Most Wanted Man
Based on a John le Carre, this thriller stars Rachel McAdams, Robin Wright, and Oscar darling Philip Seymour Hoffman. Release Date: November 2013.
Nebraska
Director Alexander Payne’s last two features, 2004’s Sideways and 2011’s The Descendants, both received nominations. That bodes well for this road trip drama starring veteran actor Bruce Dern and SNL alum (and MacGruber) Will Forte. Expect considerable attention for Dern for a Best Actor nomination. Release Date: Fall 2013.
Out of the Furnace
Scott Cooper’s directorial follow-up to 2009’s Crazy Heart (which earned Jeff Bridges a Best Actor win) is a crime thriller starring Christian Bale, Forest Whitaker, and Woody Harrelson. Release Date: Fall 2013.
Saving Mr. Banks
From director John Lee Hancock, who made the 2009 Best Pic nominee The Blind Side, comes this drama about the making of 1964’s Mary Poppins. With previous winners Tom Hanks as Walt Disney and Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers, this could be a big hit and a nominee. Co-stars Colin Farrell and Paul Giamatti. Release Date: December 20. TOP FIVE CONTENDER
12 Years a Slave
The historical drama from Shame director Steve McQueen boasts a cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Paul Dano, and Paul Giamatti. Release Date: Fall 2013.
Untitled David O. Russell Project
Director David O. Russell has also seen his last two pictures, 2010’s The Fighter and 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, earn nominations. This drama focuses on the Abscam political scandals of the 1970s and 1980s that brought down several Congressmen. Silver Linings costars Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence join a cast with Fighter costar Christian Bale, as well as Jeremy Renner. Release Date: December 25. TOP FIVE CONTENDER
The Wolf of Wall Street
Martin Scorsese has seen four of his last five movies nominated (Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo). His latest is a crime drama starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Matthew McConaughey, and Jean Dujardin. Expect this one to be considered a major player the whole way through. TOP FIVE CONTENDER
After a whole lotta speculation on this here blog, the 2012 Oscars have come and gone. Soon enough, I’ll be speculating on what/who gets nominated for 2013 movies. That’s a little ways off, however, so let’s talk about the ceremony last night.
As far as the winners, no huge surprises. I went 15/20 on my picks (not bad). In the six major categories, it was 5 for 6. I picked Tommy Lee Jones to win for Lincoln, but the Academy honored Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained. As I mentioned before on the blog, this category was more wide open than many others and I saw Jones, Waltz, and De Niro as real possibilities to win. Needless to say, Mr. Waltz’s association with Mr. Tarantino has turned out quite well.
The precursor award ceremonies like the SAG and Golden Globe awards made it much easier to predict Argo for the win and that’s what happened. When I made that decision, it made it easier to predict Ang Lee would get honored for his achievements directing Life of Pi, with Argo director Ben Affleck not being nominated. The folks out there expressing shock that Lincoln and Spielberg didn’t win probably should have paid more attention to the precursors… in which the film and Mr. Spielberg pretty much got nothing. While the film and director weren’t victorious, Daniel Day-Lewis being honored was a foregone conclusion and he becomes the first to win Best Actor three times. Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook had gained the momentum in the last few weeks, giving her the edge over Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty. And Anne Hathaway, like Day-Lewis, was an obvious choice as she’d won every major precursor.
I was slightly surprised Brave won Best Animated Feature over Wreck-It Ralph, but lesson learned. Don’t bet against Pixar in that category. I also predicted Anna Karenina would win Production Design. Lincoln won. I picked up Skyfall for Sound Mixing and Les Miserables won. And I wrongly picked against Les Mis for Makeup/Hairstyling, incorrectly guessing The Hobbit. An interesting note in another race: I did correctly pick Skyfall for Sound Editing, but it actually tied with Zero Dark Thirty. That is the only the sixth time in 85 years of Oscars where a tie has occurred.
Interestingly, the six major categories were awarded to six different movies that were all nominees in the Best Picture race. This shows you more than anything else what a strong year 2012 was in the theaters.
As for the ceremony itself? Eh, it was decent. It went way longer than it should have, like it always does. Seth MacFarlane proved to be an adequate host. He was probably a bit tamer than some would have expected, but “edgy” and “Oscar host” usually doesn’t mix. I love David Letterman and Chris Rock, but they seemed a bit out of place when they handled hosting duties. There was nothing particularly memorable about MacFarlane in his hosting gig (let’s face it: it’s a thankless job). But he was pretty solid. If I was producing the Oscars, I’d have Jimmy Fallon and Justin Timberlake co-host. I think they’d be great.
The show’s focus on musicals produced a mixed bag. For me personally, there were probably a couple too many song and dance numbers. And I found it a strange choice to honor “the history” of musicals with Chicago, Dreamgirls, and Les Miserables, three films released in the past decade. I mean, Jennifer Hudson is a wonderful singer, but I seem to recall that same Oscar performance only six years ago. On the flip side, two terrific musical moments came from the James Bond franchise, with Shirley Bassey and Adele killing it with “Goldfinger” and “Skyfall”, respectively.
Some of the acceptance speeches were quite good. I’m particularly thinking of Mr. Day-Lewis and a clearly emotional Ben Affleck accepting Best Picture. And J-Law is just great!
All in all, the Oscars closed a chapter on a truly impressive year in film in satisfactory fashion.
We’re two months into 2013 and I think I can safely say none of next year’s Best Picture nominees have come out yet. Not even Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters.
As you faithful readers have seen throughout the week, I’ve written several blog posts predicting what I believe will win in the feature film categories at this Sunday’s Oscars.
If you’re filling out your own Oscar picks, I felt it would be convenient to post all my predictions in one place. So, from me to you, Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Editing: Argo
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: “Skyfall” from Skyfall
Best Production Design: Anna Karenina
Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing: Skyfall
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
So there you have it! My predictions give Life of Pi the most wins at four, with Argo and Skyfall picking up three and Anna Karenina and Lincoln with two.
I am also predicting the James Bond tribute will be totally awesome!
Well, my friends, we have arrived at my FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions for the two FINAL categories I’ve yet to predict and they’re the big ones: Best Picture and Best Director. I made an editorial decision to combine these together because explaining my pick on each race go hand-in-hand.
Additionally, these two categories have historically matched up. Explanation: of the 85 titles that have won Best Picture in Academy history, 62 of those film’s directors won Best Director. From a more recent historical perspective, the last 25 Best Picture winners have seen their directors honored 21 times. That’s 84% of the time over the last quarter century, math fans!
Based on those numbers, it would stand to reason that whomever wins Best Director will see their movie win Best Picture, right?
… Not so fast. 2012 has been anything but typical, especially in the Best Director category. When the nominations were announced a few weeks ago, the five nominees sent shock waves through Hollywood and with Oscar prognosticators, such as yours truly.
Why? While Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) were not surprising, the inclusion of Benh Zietlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild was. To a lesser degree, so was Michael Haneke for Amour.
But, it wasn’t necessarily who was nominated, but who wasn’t that confounded everyone. Especially in the case of Ben Affleck, who was seen as a surefire nominee for Argo. And while not totally surefire, it was widely expected that Kathryn Bigelow would be nominated for her work in Zero Dark Thirty.
Since the nominations came out, Affleck has pretty much won everything else, including the Director’s Guild of America Award and the Golden Globe. Argo itself has been cleaning up, winning Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards and winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice Awards.
Let me put it to you this way: if Affleck had been nominated for Best Director, I would pick him to win. Yet he’s not. This leaves Spielberg, Lee, Russell, Zietlin, and Haneke. Let’s cross off Zietlin and Haneke right now. They don’t really stand a chance.
So we’re left with Spielberg, Lee, and Russell. And this is a truly difficult pick among the three. Spielberg is obviously one of the biggest directors of all time (probably the biggest) and he’s won Best Director twice, in 1993 for Schindler’s List and in 1998 for Saving Private Ryan. Lee is also a past winner for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain. Russell has yet to win, but he’s a critically acclaimed auteur with credits such as Three Kings and The Fighter. It could come down to current momentum of the pictures they directed. Lincoln has seemed to be losing it; Silver Linings Playbook has seemed to be gaining it. This would make it more likely that Mr. Russell wins than Mr. Spielberg. I’m not sure if I buy this argument, however. Silver Linings Playbook is one of the films with major momentum at the right time, but it may be seen as more of an actors showcase than a directorial achievement. And Lincoln could certainly have enough good will to propel Spielberg to the win. At the end of the day, however, it doesn’t matter when it comes to my final prediction. Life of Pi is a dark horse candidate to win Best Picture, but I believe the Director category will recognize its significance for what Ang Lee was able to accomplish. With Affleck out of the race, it is a three person competition and any one of them could win. A pick must be made and, for the reasons given, I will go with:
Best Director Prediction: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Which brings us to Best Picture and its nine nominees.
First things first: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Django Unchained are not going to win. Period.
We have two titles that at one time seemed strong contenders: Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty. Since that time, neither has won any significant precursors and their buzz has faded greatly. Neither Les Mis or Zero Dark will win Best Picture.
This creates a legitimate race between four titles: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook. Let’s look at each:
Argo, upon its release in October, immediately vaulted to the top of the list for Best Picture contenders. It was critically acclaimed and was a huge box office success. It ended up losing some momentum when Lincoln, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings came out after it. Then a strange thing happened. Some of the movies ended up losing their momentum. The film won the Golden Globe for Best Drama and the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Picture, as well as the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. Affleck started winning all the Best Director awards at other ceremonies, even though Oscar snubbed him.
Life of Pi was also a critical and commercial from very well-respected director Ang Lee. Fans of the novel were nervous that it would be a tough one to adapt for the screen, but it ended up being a success. This is indeed a movie where those who love it really love it.
Lincoln was a front runner for the award since the moment it was announced to start filming. Spielberg + Day-Lewis + Lincoln? I mean, come on! It also earned great reviews and terrific box office. However, other than Day-Lewis winning Actor constantly, the film itself has under performed big time at precursor awards shows. Still, that doesn’t mean the Academy wouldn’t honor it.
Silver Linings Playbook is the hot movie of the moment. Keep in mind that voting for the Oscars ended just on Tuesday. So whatever is carrying the momentum now could be the victor. The film is the first picture in 31 years to see four performers nominated in all four acting categories. Like Life of Pi, those who love it love it. Like the other three likely winners, it also received fantastic reviews and audiences loved it.
So where does that leave us? Well, it leaves me with having to make a prediction and this is one of the most competitive and unpredictable Best Picture races in history. It really is. Of the four titles that I believe have a shot, I put Life of Pi fourth, even though I’m predicting Ang Lee will win Best Director.
The absence of Lincoln winning any well-known precursors has to say something, right? While a Day-Lewis victory is near certain and I’m predicting Tommy Lee Jones will win Supporting Actor (something I’m much less certain of), I am not predicting Lincoln wins Best Picture.
This leaves Argo and Silver Linings Playbook, the two movies with the right buzz at the right time. If Argo were to win, it would only the fourth time in 85 years that a movie won and its director wasn’t even nominated. It would be only the second time that’s happened in (get this) 81 years. That historical fact alone should be enough to warrant against picking Argo for the win.
However, 2012 has been a strange year for nominations and I will predict the strangeness continues. While Silver Linings Playbook has a solid shot, my FINAL prediction is:
Best Picture Prediction: Argo
And there you have it! My FINAL predictions in all feature film related categories are officially complete. I will certainly have a post late Sunday or Monday with my reaction to what went down. Enjoy the Oscars on Sunday, my friends! I know I will.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 