On the blog this evening comes part 3 of my early 2013 Oscar Predictions. I’ve already done posts for Supporting Actor and Actress which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We’ve still got Actor, Director, and Picture to go, but it’s the leading ladies tonight with my predictions for Best Actress. I would say at this early point in the race, we already have two definite nominees. First, Cate Blanchett for her critically lauded work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, which was released this summer. She pretty much became an instant shoo-in upon the picture’s release. Then there’s Sandra Bullock in Alfonso Cuaron’s outer space thriller Gravity. That pic has played at festivals already before its October release and her performance is said to be magnificent. This would mark Bullock’s second nomination after winning four years ago for The Blind Side.

After that things become uncertain. The film festival circuit has also elevated Judi Dench for her work in Philomena. This would mark the veteran performer’s seventh Academy nomination. Emma Thompson looks like a real possibility in Saving Mr. Banks, in which she plays “Mary Poppins” author P.L. Travers as she works with Walt Disney (Tom Hanks) on the making of the classic film. As I’ve mentioned in my Supporting Actor and Actress posts, director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated. This bodes well for Amy Adams in American Hustle, though she could be competing with herself in Spike Jonze’s Her. Julia Roberts will be touted for lead in August: Osage County, though her costars Meryl Streep and Margo Martindale may receive more attention. The French romantic drama Blue Is the Warmest Colour won the Palme d’Or at Cannes including an award for its star Adele Exarchopoulos. The 19 year-old actress definitely has a shot. Both Naomi Watts in Diana (playing Princess Diana) and Nicole Kidman in Grace of Monaco (playing Princess Grace) are contenders, though I’m skeptical until we found out whether the movies are any good. Kate Winslet’s work in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day could be recognized.

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in this category instead of Supporting Actress. Reaction to the film has led to me believing Meryl gets nominated here, so I’m taking Emma Thompson out for now and putting Streep in.

Bottom line: Blanchett and Bullock are in. The rest is unclear right now, but here’s how I see the five nominations at this juncture:

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I’ll have my predictions up for Best Actor soon!

I have already made my early Best Supporting Actress predictions on the blog which you can find here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We now move forward with Supporting Actor where I’ll list the possible nominees as I see ’em with my five predictions. Right now, there seems to be only one sure-fire nominee and that would be Michael Fassbender in Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, which screened to raves at Telluride over the weekend. He appears to be in and should stay there. After that, it’s murky. Tom Hanks could possibly be nominated for lead Actor in Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips and in this category playing Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. If Banks is well-regarded, his chances seem excellent. Matthew McConaughey is another potential double nominee. In lead Actor, his chances for November’s Dallas Buyer’s Club are high. However, his chances for either Mud or Wolf of Wall Street in this race could happen too. Speaking of Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jared Leto looks to have quite a juicy role in the picture and he’s on the radar. Jonah Hill is said to be the standout in Wolf of Wall Street and he could score his second nomination in two years after 2011’s Moneyball. Bennett Miller’s upcoming Foxcatcher is a head scratcher at press time. No one’s seen it. There’s no trailer. However, director Miller has had his last two pics (Capote and Moneyball) score nods for his cast. That means Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum could land nominations. The film’s star Steve Carell could be nominated here, too, but it’s unclear whether the studio will push him for Lead. Due to the uncertainty, I’m leaving them all off for now, but any one of them could return when I update predictions. Director David O. Russell is another filmmaker who gets his actors nominated and that could bode well for either Bradley Cooper or Jeremy Renner in American Hustle. Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity looks to be a shoo-in for Best Picture and probably Sandra Bullock for Actress and the love could certainly extend to George Clooney for his supporting role. John Goodman has been a respected actor for years but he’s never been noticed by the Academy. That could change with Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers. Relative newcomer Daniel Bruhl is said to be a bright spot in Ron Howard’s upcoming Formula One racing pic Rush. Josh Brolin could be in the mix for his role in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Jake Gyllenhall is already being touted for a “career-best” performance in Prisoners. Javier Bardem looks to have a cool role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Benedict Cumberbatch (who received positive notices this summer in Star Trek Into Darkness) could be recognized for August: Osage County. 

Bottom line: this race is very unpredictable right now, with the exception of Fassbender’s nomination. Here’s my predictions with a further prediction: this list is likely to change over the next four months.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): Now that I’ve predicted Tom Hanks will be nominated in the lead Actor category for Captain Phillips, I’m having a harder time putting him down in this category for Saving Mr. Banks. Therefore, I’m substituting Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher at press time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

George Clooney, Gravity

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

That’s all for now, but I’ll be back with Best Actress in short order.

Bottom line?

And now, beginning on the first day of September, comes my early Oscar predictions. The race for Academy gold has truly begun over the past few days with the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals in full swing. The Toronto Film Festival is just around the corner. That means a large number of Oscar hopefuls opening this fall are screening and reviews are coming out. Due to that, we already have a number of films that now seem likely to receive nominations in the Picture category and for performers as well.

I will begin with Supporting Actress before moving onto Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture. Let’s begin, shall we?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

It has yet to screen anywhere, but August: Osage County (based on a well-known play) is in talks for a number of possible nominations, especially for Meryl Streep who plays the matriarch of a severely dysfunctional family. It would appear that her performance will likely be for Supporting, though it could change to the lead Actress category. She’s pretty much considered the greatest actress of all time and her inclusion here seems probable. For the same film, the nomination of Margo Martindale (a seasoned actress who’s popped up in supporting roles in numerous pictures) is more of a question mark. I believe that if the film resonates with audiences, her performance (said to be a highlight) could be nominated. Another likelihood is the nomination of Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. The pic has caught on with audiences, her performance has received positive notices, and she’s one of the most famous people on the planet. At Telluride over the weekend, Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave screened and became an instant Oscar contender in numerous categories, including this one. The performance of newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is said to be fantastic and, at press time, I think she’s in. The rest of the race is wide open. Director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated and Jennifer Lawrence could get a nod for American Hustle. Octavia Spencer (who won two years ago for The Help) is a strong possibility for Fruitvale Station. Cameron Diaz looks to have a juicy role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Amy Adams has been nominated multiple times and her role in Spike Jonze’s Her could be recognized (though she will also be in the mix for lead in American Hustle). Naomie Harris plays Nelson Mandela’s wife in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I’m not willing to put her in until the pic is screened. June Squibb is receiving good notices for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, though Bruce Dern may receive the lions share of awards attention for that film. Same goes for Sally Hawkins’ work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine where lead Cate Blanchett will be touted the most. Blanchett herself is a contender in this category for George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, but once again she’ll probably get recognized for Best Actress in Jasmine. The crime thriller Prisoners with Hugh Jackman received raves at Telluride and Melissa Leo (winner three years ago for The Fighter) has been mentioned. The Coen Bros Inside Llewyn Davis should get nominations and that may extend to Carey Mulligan’s work. Same goes for Vanessa Redgrave in Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, which nobody has seen yet (it doesn’t even have a trailer which makes predicting for it tough at the moment).

Whew. So there’s the layout. Like I said, lots of potential nominees. As of September 1st, however, here are my predictions for the category:

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in Best Actress instead of this category. This means co-star Julia Roberts is likely to be campaigned for in this category and I’m taking Meryl out and putting Julia in. Furthermore, I no longer feel Margo Martindale gets nominated here and I’m substituting Naomie Harris as Winnie Mandela in the Mandela biopic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TODD’S PREDICTIONS):

Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it! I’ll be back with Supporting Actor soon enough…

The Telluride Film Festival is happening this holiday weekend and it is typically a venue where Oscar contenders are born. This seems to be the case for Denis Villenueve’s Prisoners (out September 20), a crime thriller starring Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall. The first screening has been met with rapturous critical reviews with more than one saying it’s career-best work from Jackman and Gyllenhall. Just last year, Jackman received his first Best Actor nomination for Les Miserables. Based on the reaction to Prisoners, it’s very well likely he’ll receive two in a row.

Canadian director Villenueve is making his American debut with Prisoners, about a child abduction. The film is set to be extremely unsettling and violent but also, according to a number of early reviews, brilliant. One prominent critic compared it to Seven and Mystic River. Based on reaction alone at Telluride, Prisoners is now in contention for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Jackman), and Best Supporting Actor (Gyllenhall). There’s also some talk already of Melissa Leo for Supporting Actress. She plays the mother of a suspect in the case.

Prisoners has immediately become a movie to pay close attention to this awards season and it’s certainly vaulted to the top of my must-see pics of the fall.

Ben Stiller has been one of the most dependable comedic stars of the past two decades. Yet he’s made nothing that garnered the Academy’s attention (with the exception of a Supporting Actor nomination for Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder). That could change this year with his directorial effort The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, in which he also stars.

The film is a remake of a 1947 Danny Kaye picture. Stiller plays a normal everyday Joe who decides to live out his adventurous fantasies across the world. The actor has had good luck with projects he’s chosen to direct, especially with his last two comedic efforts Zoolander and Tropic Thunder. Based on the trailer, this seems like the type of picture that may resonate with audiences if done well and also connect with Oscar voters. Actors known primarily for comedy have a checkered history (at best) with the Academy when they played more dramatic parts . Many thought Jim Carrey would receive a Best Actor nomination for 1998’s The Truman Show. It didn’t happen. That same year, Steve Martin was being mentioned as a potential Supporting Actor candidate for David Mamet’s The Spanish Prisoner. Once again it never materialized. Over the past ten years, however, we’ve seen examples that include a Best Actor nomination in 2003 for Bill Murray in Lost in Translation and Eddie Murphy for Supporting Actor in 2006 for Dreamgirls.

Critical reaction will be key and it’ll be awhile before the word is out on Walter Mitty. At press time, though, this looks like Stiller’s best opportunity so far for his film and his acting to receive awards attention. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, which costars Kristin Wiig, and Sean Penn, is out Christmas Day.

It’s not even September yet, but tonight on the blog I will make my first declarative statement about the Best Picture race at the Oscars:

Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity will be nominated for Best Picture. I wouldn’t say pencil it in for a nomination among the five to ten films that will get recognized. You can use a pen. Director Cuaron will receive a nomination for Best Director.

Why so certain? Well, Gravity had its world premiere opening at the Venice Film Festival and many reviews are out as of this morning. You can peruse Dark Horizons’ recap of what the critics thought here:

http://www.darkhorizons.com/news/28361/first-reviews-for-gravity-arrive

Bottom line: they are in love with the picture, which is a thriller set in space starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. Cuaron is known for directing visual feasts, including Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (the first of the franchise in my view) and 2006’s Children of Men, which should have received a Best Picture nod. The reviews have gone out of their way to praise the visual look of Gravity and it will certainly receive nominations in multiple tech categories.

With all the praise that came out today, the chances of Bullock getting a Best Actress nomination and Clooney receiving Supporting Actor recognition have significantly improved. I would expect Gravity to be a big box office performer upon its October 4th release. And, now, its chances as a performer at the 2013 Oscars seem assured.

Oscar voters tend to love movies about their town and Saving Mr. Banks not only centers on Hollywood, but details the making of a beloved picture and has A-list talent involved.

The film centers on the production of 1964’s Mary Poppins, casting Emma Thompson as the book’s author P.L. Travers with Tom Hanks portraying the legendary Walt Disney. Judging from the trailer, the collaboration of Travers and Disney was not always a smooth one. John Lee Hancock is behind the camera and his last feature was an audience pleaser and Best Picture nominee, 2009’s The Blind Side. The supporting cast includes Paul Giamatti, Jason Schwartzman, Bradley Whitford, and Colin Farrell.

Saving Mr. Banks is set for a December 20th release and I would expect it to be in the conversation for not just Best Picture, but also Thompson in the Best Actress race (she won in 1992 for Howards End) and Hanks for Best Supporting Actor (he won the lead actor category in 1993 and 1994 for Philadelphia and Forrest Gump). For Hanks, he will also be in contention for Best Actor for this fall’s Captain Phillips. Hard to believe, but it’s been 13 years since his last nomination for 2000’s Cast Away. 

The picture is the latest example of one to watch come Oscar nomination time. Coming up soon on the blog, I’ll do my first round of ridiculously early Oscar predictions. Stay tuned!

It’s the #1 film in America and the box office road ahead continues to look bright. It has one of the most recognizable celebrities in the world costarring in it and going out of her way to promote it.

The commercial success and mostly positive reviews for Lee Daniels’ The Butler has virtually assured that it’s in the conversation for Oscar consideration. As mentioned, reviews have been good… but not great. The film stands at 72% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s a fine number, though most Oscar nominated pictures go beyond that.

It may not matter in this case due to its now known commercial appeal. The Butler may very well occupy the Best Picture nomination slot that The Blind Side occupied in 2009 (66% on RT) and The Help filled in 2011 (77% RT score). In other words, it could get the spot for a movie that critics were pretty cool with and audiences loved. The Butler received an A Cinemascore grade, which obviously means crowds are digging it.

If The Butler follows the path of The Blind Side and The Help, that would mean a Best Picture nomination and not a Best Director nomination. I see that as the strongest possibility.

As far as the actors, the popularity of The Butler advances the chances of Forest Whitaker being nominated for Best Actor and Oprah Winfrey getting a nod for Best Supporting Actress. At press time, the Best Actor race looks like it could be crowded and Whitaker’s nomination is certainly not assured. With Oprah, I’m more convinced of her chances. Many critics have singled out her performance and, well… it’s Oprah for goodness sake! She’s one of the most famous people in the world and I’m sure the Academy would love to have her in the mix.

Obviously, the bulk of awards contenders have yet to be released (this happens in the final four months of the year). Still, The Butler looks to be a factor this awards season.

My latest edition of 2013 films that could contend for various Oscars centers on 12 Years a Slave, which gives some actors their shot for their first acting nominations. The pic is based on the 1853 autobiography of Solomon Northup, a free black man who was kidnapped and sold into the slave trade.

From director Steve McQueen, maker of 2011’s acclaimed Shame, 12 Years a Slave features a supporting cast that includes Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Paul Giamatti, Paul Dano, and Benedict Cumberbatch. It is Fassbender, as a sadistic slave owner, who’s been mentioned for Supporting Actor. Newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is already being mentioned for Supporting Actress.

If the movie delivers, expect lots of speculation to focus on the actor playing Solomon, Chiwetel Ejiofor. He’s one of those actors you’ll recognize from many supporting roles, including Inside Man, American Gangster, and Salt. This has a great shot at being his breakout role and a Best Actor nod could follow.

Along with The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle, The Monuments Men, and The Counselor (all of which I’ve written about previously), 12 Years a Slave is one more title expected to be mentioned in the Best Picture race. I’ll have more films in contention to talk about soon enough. Stay tuned!

Any thriller featuring the cast of The Counselor coupled with the fact that Ridley Scott (Alien, Blade Runner, Gladiator) is directing would vault it onto the list of Oscar hopefuls.

The Counselor also has the added bonus of having an original screenplay written by Cormac McCarthy, considered of the best novelists alive. If you’re not familiar with his literary works, you’re probably at least aware of some movies adapted from them: The Road, All the Pretty Horses, and the Oscar winning No Country for Old Men.

The film is a thriller about a lawyer (Michael Fassbender) who gets tangled up with some nefarious characters in the drug world. It’s got an impressive cast that includes Cameron Diaz, Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, and Brad Pitt.

Oscar attention so far has focused on Picture and Director nominations, as well as the strong possibility that Mr. McCarthy gets an Original Screenplay nod. As far as the actors, it’s been Diaz and Bardem in their Supporting roles mentioned the most. Fassbender for Best Actor seems possible, but he’s also being touted already for Supporting Actor in 12 Years a Slave (I’ll have an Oscar Watch post on that one soon enough).

Director Scott saw his 2000 epic Gladiator take the top prize, but he lost Director to Steven Soderbergh for his work in Traffic. I would expect The Counselor to be a major factor in several races for 2013.