A major piece of the awards season puzzle came into focus today as Richard Linklater’s LastFlagFlying has screened at the New York Film Festival. The pic casts Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston, and Laurence Fishburne as Vietnam vets brought together decades later by a tragedy.
Flying opened the festival and has been seen as a serious Oscar contender for some time. Three years ago, Linklater’s Boyhood was nominated for six Academy Awards and the subject matter here made this an immediate curiousity item in the season ahead. Early reaction has been mixed. It stands at 79% currently on Rotten Tomatoes and there has been some reviews calling it a disappointment.
For a while, it’s been unclear how the three leads would be campaigned for. It appears Amazon Studios will tout Carell in Lead Actor with Cranston and Fishburne in Supporting. Cicely Tyson is said to have a one scene role that is a highlight according to some notices. It’ll be interesting to see if Amazon mounts a campaign for her. It’s entirely feasible none of them make the dance and Carell will even be competing against himself in BattleoftheSexes (unless he’s switched to Supporting there).
The mixed buzz will likely mean a downgrade in my next projections where I’ve had Flag planted at 8th and getting in the Best Picture race. Right now, Adapted Screenplay is looking lighter than Original Screenplay so that could perhaps be the best chance at any nod.
Back at it with my weekly Oscar predictions on the eight major categories and how those races are shaping up! In the next week, two big pieces of the Academy puzzle will come into focus. Last Flag Flying will screen this evening at the New York Film Festival and Blade Runner 2049 will have its reviews out as it opens a week from tomorrow (early word-of-mouth is strong). I’m also, for the first time, including Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris, which hasn’t been confirmed for release by the end of the year (though it’s expected to be).
As for this week, we’ve seen some significant changes in the rankings at the top for both Actress and Supporting Actress. Again, I’ll note that just because I’m ranking something first doesn’t mean I think it wins. This is strictly guesstimates on chances of being nominated.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
9. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)
13. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 14)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
15. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Get Out (PR: 24)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: 17)
18. Detroit (PR: 16)
19. Downsizing (PR: 13)
20. The Big Sick (PR: 21)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 25)
22. I, Tonya (PR: 20)
23. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
24. Molly’s Game (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonderstruck (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
Coco
mother!
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
9. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
11. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
12. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 9)
13. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
15. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
7. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 13)
15. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (reportedly competing in Supporting Actor)
Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House
Matt Damon, Downsizing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
3. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)
7. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 10)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 9)
11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 11)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 12)
13. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Carey Mulligan, Mudbound
Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 8)
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
11. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 12)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 11)
14. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 15)
15. Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 2)
2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 6)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
9. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 8)
11. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
12. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 14)
15. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Julianne Moore, Suburbicon
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!
Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (moved to Lead Actress)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
3. Mudbound (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. All the Money in the World (PR: 10)
7. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 7)
10. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 12)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Stronger (PR: 9)
14. Wonder (PR: 13)
15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. The Big Sick (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)
9. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)
11. Downsizing (PR: 9)
12. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
13. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 14)
15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Coco
And there you have it! Updates will be on the way next Thursday…
Early reviews are out for Marshall, which casts Chadwick Boseman as a young Thurgood Marshall in this courtroom drama set decades before he became the first African-American to sit on the Supreme Court. The film comes from director Reginald Hudlin, known mostly for 90s comedies like HouseParty and Boomerang. Costars include Josh Gad, Kate Hudson, Dan Stevens, Sterling K. Brown, and James Cromwell.
With a Best Actor race that’s looking somewhat thin thus far, Boseman seemed like a decent possibility for inclusion. He’s had an impressive career playing real-life figures Jackie Robinson in 42 and James Brown in GetOnUp. The actor has also increased his visibility with a larger audience as Black Panther in CaptainAmerica: CivilWar and in his own spin-off next year. Yet he hasn’t received attention from the Academy.
Marshall is getting decent critical notices so far, but not to the level where Best Picture seems feasible. I also find it likely that Boseman will be 0 for 3 in Best Actor portraying his third high-profile person, unless the picture manages to really break out with audiences.
Three years ago, Angelina Jolie’s war drama Unbroken was looked at as a major awards contender until it screened for critics. While it performed well at the box office, her second directorial effort received three technical nominations outside of the major categories.
Now, FirstTheyKilledMyFather (her fourth feature behind the camera) could be looking at a Best Picture nod, but in a different manner. The pic, which played at the Telluride and Toronto fests and is currently available on Netflix, has received the best reviews of the director’s career (89% on Rotten Tomatoes).
The 1970s set dramatic thriller will be Cambodia’s official entry into the Best Foreign Language Film race and it stands a very real shot at recognition. I don’t see it getting into the conversation for Picture itself, but Jolie could still find herself in the Oscar mix in a way that fell through in 2014.
Sebastian Lelio’s A Fantastic Woman is a Chilean import that made waves when it premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. The drama boasts a 100% rating currently on Rotten Tomatoes and is Chile’s official submission in the Best Foreign Language Film category at the Oscars.
Chances are quite good it will land a nomination there, but it could also make Oscar history if its recognized in another race. Daniela Vega has landed raves for her performance. If she was able to nab a Best Actress nomination, Vega would be the first transgender performer to do so.
In another year, the critical acclaim and history making might be enough to make the final five. In 2017, it could be a long shot because this race is jam packed. At this juncture, Emma Stone in Battle of the Sexes and Frances McDormand for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri look like they’re in. Meryl Streep’s work in Steven Spielberg’s The Post has yet to be screened, but it sure sounds like an Oscar type role. That’s in addition to a host of other possibilities, including Margot Robbie (I, Tonya), Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water), Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel), Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul), and Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game).
That said, there could still be room for a “surprise” nod and Vega would seem to fit the bill. I currently have her listed at #9 in the race and we’ll see how the coming weeks play out.
My weekly Thursday Oscar predictions are coming to you on a Friday this week (sorry for the delay) as the festival season shed some light on potential nominees. That said, there’s still lots of uncertainty with plenty left to be seen.
Per usual, I’m listing my predicted nominees in the eight major categories with 25 potentials for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Once again, note that just because I rank something first doesn’t mean I think it will win. These rankings are more geared toward what I think will definitely be nominated at this juncture. For instance, even though Dunkirk is placed 1st, I wouldn’t say it’s the front runner to take home Best Picture at all.
Let’s get to it and I’ll get the weekly post back to Thursdays next week!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Mudbound (PR: 5)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 17)
8. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
11. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
12. Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
13. Downsizing (PR: 11)
14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 16)
15. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 12)
16. Detroit (PR: 14)
17. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
18. Coco (PR: 19)
19. The Florida Project (PR: 23)
20. I, Tonya (PR: 24)
21. The Big Sick (PR: Not Ranked)
22. Wonderstruck (PR: 18)
23. mother! (PR: 15)
24. Get Out (PR: 20)
25. Lady Bird (PR: 21)
Dropped Out:
Wind River
Wonder Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)
11. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
12. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
13. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
15. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Alexander Payne, Downsizing
Darren Aronofsky, mother!
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
4. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 10)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 7)
8. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 9)
9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 11)
11. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 12)
12. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)
13. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)
14. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 15)
15. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (picture reportedly moved to 2018)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 11)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
11. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 10)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 15)
15. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 14)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 6)
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)
8. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 7)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
12. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Garrett Hedlund, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 13)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 10)
11. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: 14)
12. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 11)
13. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 8)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
3. Mudbound (PR: 2)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
7. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Stronger (PR: 7)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 12)
12. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. Logan (PR: 15)
15. Thank You for Your Service (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
You Were Never Really Here (reportedly moved to 2018)
My Cousin Rachel
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
2. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 5)
5. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Big Sick (PR: 12)
7. Get Out (PR: 6)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 8)
9. Downsizing (PR: 9)
10. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
11. The Florida Project (PR: 15)
12. Phantom Thread (PR: 7)
13. Coco (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 10)
15. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
mother!
And there you have it, folks! I’ll be back next week with my latest update…
We’ve arrived at my second round of weekly Oscar predictions that will come your way every Thursday on the blog! Since last week, a number of titles have screened at the Toronto Film Festival, in addition to the Venice and Telluride fests that preceded it.
As I did last week, I will list my current predicted nominees in the eight biggest races with a total of 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 in the others. Beginning today, you’ll be able to see the fluctuation in rankings from last week to the current one and see what and who has joined and dropped out. Once again, rankings reflect who and what I think will be nominated and not necessarily win.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
4. The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
5. Mudbound (PR: 4)
6. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
7. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
8. Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)
9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Phantom Thread (PR: 11)
11. Downsizing (PR: 8)
12. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 16)
13. Wonder Wheel (PR: 12)
14. Detroit (PR: 14)
15. mother! (PR: 13)
16. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)
17. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 18)
18. Wonderstruck (PR: 17)
19. Coco (PR: 19)
20. Get Out (PR: 20)
21. Lady Bird (PR: 22)
22. Wind River (PR: 21)
23. The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
24. I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Wonder Woman (PR: 23)
Dropped Out:
Molly’s Game
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 7)
8. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
10. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Alexander Payne, Downsizing (PR: 9)
13. Michael Gracey, The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
14. Darren Aronofsky, mother! (PR: 13)
15. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 4)
5. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here (PR: 5)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 15)
8. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 6)
9. Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 7)
10. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 12)
12. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
13. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Matt Damon, Downsizing (PR: 10)
15. Liam Neeson, Mark Felt: The Man Who Brought Down the White House (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Renner, Wind River
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 1)
2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 5)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 3)
7. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 7)
11. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 8)
12. Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (PR: 13)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Jane Fonda, Our Souls at Night (PR: 15)
15. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: 11)
Dropped Out:
Isabelle Huppert, Happy End
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 2)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)
7. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 5)
8. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)
9. Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
11. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
13. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 14)
14. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Harrison Ford, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Idris Elba, Molly’s Game
Woody Harrelson, The Glass Castle
Christoph Waltz, Downsizing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 1)
2. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 2)
3. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)
8. Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (PR: 7)
9. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 11)
10. Julianne Moore, Suburbicon (PR: 13)
11. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 14)
12. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
14. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Michelle Williams, The Greatest Showman
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Post (PR: 1)
2. Mudbound (PR: 2)
3. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
7. Stronger (PR: 12)
8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. You Were Never Really Here (PR: 7)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 10)
12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 11)
13. Wonder (PR: 13)
14. My Cousin Rachel (PR: 14)
15. Logan (PR: 15)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
5. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Get Out (PR: 7)
7. Phantom Thread (PR: 8)
8. Dunkirk (PR: 9)
9. Downsizing (PR: 5)
10. Goodbye Christopher Robin (PR: 15)
11. Lady Bird (PR: 11)
12. The Big Sick (PR: 10)
13. mother! (PR: 13)
14. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
15. The Florida Project (PR: 12)
And there you have it, folks! Expect more Oscar Watch posts to come your way and my next full predictions next Thursday…
It’s been nearly 25 years since Liam Neeson received his one and only Oscar nomination for playing Oskar Schindler in 1993’s Schindler’sList. He’s had acclaimed roles since then (2004’s Kinsey being a notable one). To younger moviegoers, he may just be known as the brooding action hero from the Taken franchise and others. Yet MarkFelt: TheManWhoBroughtDowntheWhiteHouse had prognosticators like me take notice when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival.
The film casts Neeson as the title character, the real-life FBI man who was revealed decades later to be Deep Throat. Felt provided the invaluable intel that resulted in President Nixon’s resignation. Peter Landesman directs with a supporting cast that includes Diane Lane, Tony Goldwyn, Bruce Greenwood, Ike Barinholtz, and Michael C. Hall.
While reviews for Neeson’s work here have been solid, reaction to the picture itself has been rather lackluster. It stands at just 44% on Rotten Tomatoes. In other words, Neeson is the only possibility at all for Academy chatter. That appears to be a long shot. The film fest season of the past couple weeks has provided a couple names with better chances like Denzel Washington in RomanJ.Israel, Esq. and Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger. That’s in addition to the assured nomination of Gary Oldman in DarkestHour, not to mention plenty of other contenders whose movies haven’t screened.
The reaction to the film itself was mixed, but Denzel Washington has increased his chances for an eighth Oscar nomination for RomanJ. Israel, Esq. The legal drama is director Dan Gilroy’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2014 pic Nightcrawler (which is one of my favorite movies of the last few years). Colin Farrell and Carmen Ejogo costar.
As mentioned, reviews from its Toronto Film Festival screening have not all been positive (it’s at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet critics have singled out Denzel’s work here. His inclusion in Best Actor might be its only chance at Academy recognition. Gilroy could land an Original Screenplay nod (as he did for Nightcrawler), but that race is already looking busy.
Mr. Washington has won twice – for Supporting Actor in 1989’s Glory and lead in 2001’s TrainingDay. Just last year, he probably came very close to getting his third for Fences (he lost to Casey Affleck in ManchesterbytheSea).
In my intital round of predictions last Thursday, I had the performer playing the title character here ranked 15th. He’ll be ranked higher in the second round on Thursday.
Andrew Garfield goes for his second Best Actor Oscar nod in a row with Breathe, which has screened at the Toronto Film Festival. In it, Garfield plays a man diagnosed with polio who becomes a disabilities advocate. The drama marks the directorial debut of Andy Serkis, known most for giving life to CG creations in the LordoftheRings and PlanetoftheApes franchises. Other stars include Claire Foy and Hugh Bonneville.
Early reviews haven’t been too positive, but they’ve pointed out it wears its Oscar hopes on its sleeve. It’s been compared to TheTheoryofEverything, which did win Eddie Redmayne a statue. With Best Actor looking like it has some open slots (for now), a strong campaign could give Garfield nod #2 after last year’s HacksawRidge. Yet the troubling reviews won’t help.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 