Category: Oscar Predictions

Todd’s 2016 Oscar Predictions: The Other Races

Happy Friday y’all! Readers of my blog are aware that every Thursday for a few weeks now, I’ve been giving you my projections in the eight biggest races for the Academy Awards. Those categories are Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. You can peruse yesterday’s post here if you didn’t catch it:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/12/01/todds-weekly-oscar-predictions-december-1st-edition/

What about the other categories, though? Well fear not because today is the first day I’m giving you my take on them as well. I’m leaving out (and will continue to leave out) Documentary Short Subject and the short film races in animated and live-action. Why? I don’t know anything about them and it’d be simple guesswork to predict them.

That said, we’ve got a bunch of other races to cover. As I’ve done with the others, I’ll give my 5 predicted nominees and list five other strong possibilities. Let’s get to it!

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. Zootopia

2. Moana

3. Kubo and the Two Strings

4. The Red Turtle

5. Finding Dory

Other Possibilities

6. The Little Prince

7. April and the Extraordinary World

8. My Life as a Zucchini

9. Sausage Party

10. Miss Hokusai

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees

1. 13th

2. O.J.: Made in America

3. Gleason

4. Life, Animated

5. I Am Not Your Negro

Other Possibilities

6. The Eagle Huntress

7. Cameraperson

8. Fire at Sea

9. Miss Sharon Jones

10. The Ivory Game

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees

1. Toni Erdmann

2. Fire at Sea

3. Land of Mine

4. Elle

5. A Man Called Ove

Other Possibilities

6. The Salesman

7. Ma’Rosa

8. The Ardennes

9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki

10. Neruda

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land

2. Silence

3. Moonlight

4. Arrival

5. The Jungle Book

Other Possibilities

6. Live by Night

7. Lion

8. Hacksaw Ridge

9. Hell or High Water

10. Jackie

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie

2. La La Land

3. Love and Friendship

4. Live by Night

5. Silence

Other Possibilities

6. Allied

7. Rules Don’t Apply

8. Florence Foster Jenkins

9. Fences

10. Hidden Figures

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land

2. Silence

3. Moonlight

4. Lion

5. Hacksaw Ridge

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival

7. Jackie

8. Hell or High Water

9. Live by Night

10. Fences

Best Makeup and Hairstyling (only three nominees)

Predicted Nominees

1. Jackie

2. Hacksaw Ridge

3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Other Possibilities

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

5. The BFG

6. Hidden Figures

7. Star Trek Beyond

8. Suicide Squad

9. Nocturnal Animals

10. Silence

Best Score

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land

2. Lion

3. Arrival

4. Jackie

5. Moana

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book

7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

8. Hidden Figures

9. Hacksaw Ridge

10. Manchester by the Sea

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees

1. “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

2. “We Know the Way” from Moana

3. “City of Stars” from La La Land

4. “Dancing with Your Shadow” from Po

5. “I See Victory” from Hidden Figures

Other Possibilities

6. “Can’t Stop the Feeling” from Trolls

7. “A Letter to the Free” from 13th

8. “I’m Still Here” from Miss Sharon Jones

9. “Rules Don’t Apply” from Rules Don’t Apply

10. “Runnin” from Hidden Figures

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land

2. Silence

3. Jackie

4. Live by Night

5. Arrival

Other Possibilities

6. Love and Friendship

7. Rules Don’t Apply

8. Hacksaw Ridge

9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

10. Allied

Best Sound Editing

1. Hacksaw Ridge

2. La La Land

3. The Jungle Book

4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

5. Patriots Day

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival

7. Silence

8. Deepwater Horizon

9. Sully

10. Passengers

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land

2. Hacksaw Ridge

3. Patriots Day

4. Sully

5. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Other Possibilities

6. The Jungle Book

7. Deepwater Horizon

8. Arrival

9. Passengers

10. Live by Night

Best Visual Effects

1. The Jungle Book

2. Doctor Strange

3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

4. A Monster Calls

5. Passengers

Other Possibilities

6. Arrival

7. The BFG

8. Star Trek Beyond

9. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

10. Captain America: Civil War

**And that leaves the following breakdown for all movies in all categories getting the following number of nominations (this will be updated every week):

14 Nominations

La La Land

8 Nominations

Silence

7 Nominations

Moonlight

6 Nominations

Arrival, Fences, Lion, Manchester by the Sea

5 Nominations

Jackie

4 Nominations

Hacksaw Ridge

3 Nominations

Hidden Figures, The Jungle Book, Loving, Moana, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

2 Nominations

Live by Night, Patriots Day, Sully, 20th Century Women

1 Nomination

13th, Doctor Strange, Elle, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Finding Dory, Fire at Sea, Gleason, Hell or High Water, I Am Not Your Negro, Kubo and the Two Strings, Land of Mine, Life, Animated, Love & Friendship, A Man Called Ove, A Monster Calls, Nocturnal Animals, O.J.: Made in America, Passengers, Po, The Red Turtle, Toni Erdmann, Zootopia

Next Thursday – I’ll have my predictions updated in all categories! Until then…

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 1st Edition

Hello all! Welcome to December and welcome to my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions!

It’s been seven days since my last Turkey Day estimates in the eight major categories. A lot can change in a week and there’s been significant developments since we were all couch bound after our Thanksgiving feasts.

Let us count them…

1) Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally held some screenings, meaning buzz is out. Official reviews are embargoed until December 10, but the first reactions indicate that the director’s latest could be a force in the Oscar race. My predictions reflect that. Furthermore, initial word makes one wonder whether it’ll be Liam Neeson or Adam Driver that get the lion’s share of attention in Supporting Actor.

2) A number of awards precursors have rolled out their winners and nominations. We begin with the National Board of Review. Yesterday, the NBR bestowed their winners upon us. They are: Manchester by the Sea (Best Film), Barry Jenkins for Moonlight (Director), Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea (Actor), Amy Adams in Arrival (Actress), Jeff Bridges in Hell or High Water (Supporting Actor), Naomie Harris in Moonlight (Supporting Actor), Manchester by the Sea (Original Screenplay), and Silence (Adapted Screenplay). The critics organization also lists ten other pictures on the year’s best list and they are: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hail Caesar!, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Moonlight, Patriots Day, Silence, and Sully. Now – the NBR’s list of films have not and will not match what the Academy does. For instance, Hail Caesar! is not going to nab a Best Picture nod (it’s never been in my top 20 list of possibles and still isn’t). All the others, however, are at least feasible. The most notable snub is Fences, though I’d say it’s still near the top for Academy recognition. Lion is another notable omission.

3) The Critics Choice Awards came out today with their nominations. An important caveat: Silence (and Passengers and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story) weren’t screened in time for consideration. The CCA nominates 10 pictures and they are: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Lion, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and Sully. Another note: the upcoming Jackie got no Picture love from the NBR or CCA.

There are seven nominees for Best Director and six each in the acting and screenplay races. They are:

Director: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water), Denis Villeneueve (Arrival), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Gibson’s nod is a fascinating one and he may have slightly increased his chances at Oscar attention. That said, it’s important to remember that Scorsese (who’s almost sure to get a nomination) was ineligible.

Actor: Casey Affleck (Manchester), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Tom Hanks (Sully), and Denzel Washington (Fences). Nothing out of the ordinary here, though Garfield seems more likely to get Acting attention for Silence via the Academy.

Actress: Amy Adams (Arrival), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land). Note: No nod for either Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) or Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane).

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Ben Foster (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals). Note: While some awards prognosticators have listed Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins as a possibility, his fortunes seem to be dwindling. Also, no Mykelti Williams or Stephen Henderson for Fences. 

Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea). No real surprises here.

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Loving, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight. Again, no shocks though the ignoring of Jackie continues here.

Adapted Screenplay: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, Nocturnal Animals, Sully. With Hacksaw getting Pic and Director and Actor attention, a bit surprising it didn’t land a nod here.

4) The New York Film Critics Circle named their winners today. La La Land (the current front runner for Best Picture) was victorious. However, Director went to Barry Jenkins yet again for his work in Moonlight. Casey Affleck took another Actor prize with Isabelle Huppert in Elle helping her case out with an Actress win. Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Michelle Williams (for both Manchester and Certain Women) won their Supporting categories. The NYFCC combines screenplay into one and Manchester took top honors there.

Whew. Lots of information, I know, with plenty to digest! Taking all that into account and knowing there’s a bunch more precursors to come – here’s where I have the eight major races standing at this moment:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 4)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

5. Fences (PR: 2)

6. Lion (PR: 5)

7. Arrival (PR: 8)

8. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

11. Jackie (PR: 9)

12. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 16)

13. Sully (PR: 15)

14. Patriots Day (PR: 13)

15. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

16. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

17. Live by Night (PR: 14)

18. Passengers (PR: Not Ranked)

19. The Jungle Book (PR: 18)

20. The Founder (PR: 19)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Director

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Actor

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 7)

8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

5. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 5)

8. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 2)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

7. Adam Driver, Silence (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 8)

9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 7)

10. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

2. Moonlight (PR: 1)

3. La La Land (PR: 3)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 4)

5. Loving (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

7. The Lobster (PR: 8)

8. Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Gold

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Silence (PR: 3)

3. Lion (PR: 2)

4. Arrival (PR: 5)

5. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

Other Possibilties

6. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 4)

7. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

8. Sully (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 9)

10. Indignation (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Live by Night

Whew! And there you have it…

Let’s see what transpires over the next 7 days until my next round! Until then…

 

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 24th Edition

Happy Turkey Day all! And yes we all know it’s Thursday and that also means my weekly Oscar predictions are here for you to stuff yourself with. Over the last week, we have seen new developments as Allied opened, reviews came out, and its awards chances went buh bye.

Furthermore, both Patriots Day and The Founder (both out next month) had critical reaction come in. Patriots has established itself as a dark horse candidate for recognition with Founder popping up in the bottom of possibilities based on their reviews.

Added to that… Martin Scorsese’s Silence finally got a trailer release about a month before its premiere.

So there’s a bit of movement happening on the charts and here’s my Thanksgiving projections for the eight major categories:

BEST PICTURE

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 3)

4. Silence (PR: 5)

5. Lion (PR: 4)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Loving (PR: 9)

8. Arrival (PR: 7)

9. Jackie (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Patriots Day (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Live by Night (PR: 13)

15. Sully (PR: 14)

16. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 15)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 17)

18. The Jungle Book (PR: 16)

19. The Founder (Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: 20)

Dropped Out:

Allied

Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 4)

3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)

4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 3)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

BEST ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 7)

7. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 8)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 10)

BEST ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)

4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 5)

5. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 4)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 9)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)

2. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

3. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

4. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 6)

5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 10)

7. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)

8. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 9)

10. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 8)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 7)

8. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 6)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 9)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 10)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

3. La La Land (PR: 2)

4. Hell or High Water (PR: 5)

5. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. Loving (PR: 7)

7. Jackie (PR: 4)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

10. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I, Daniel Blake

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Silence (PR: 4)

4. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

5. Arrival (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Live by Night (PR: 7)

8. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 10)

9. Elle (PR: 7)

10. Sully (PR: 9)

And that does it for your Thanksgiving edition of my Oscar predictions… Enjoy those leftovers!

Oscar Watch: The Founder

Another day, another piece of the Oscar puzzle coming into more focus as The Founder has screened for critics. The film is a biopic of Ray Croc, the man behind the McDonald’s franchise. Michael Keaton stars with John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directing. Costars include Laura Dern, Nick Offerman, Patrick Wilson, and John Carroll Lynch.

This has been fairly low on the radar screen of many awards prognosticators. Part of that could be due to its consistently shifting release date over the past few months. It was originally scheduled to debut this Friday and then was pushed up to August before being pushed back to December and its wide release won’t come until January. Got all that?

Nevertheless, The Founder found some positive critical reaction as of yesterday and it currently stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. Will it get a Best Picture nomination? Most likely not, but it could be a factor in one particular race. Michael Keaton has been on a roll lately (he’s appeared in the last two Best Picture winners – Birdman and Spotlight). The Best Actor race appears to be rather fluid, with only Denzel Washington (Fences) and Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea) as seemingly sure things. Keaton could easily find himself in the mix with Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Tom Hanks (Sully), Warren Beatty (Rules Don’t Apply), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and others. It could also make a play for Best Original Screenplay, though that could be more of a long shot.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Allied

Yet another piece of the Oscar puzzle revealed itself this morning as reviews for this Wednesday’s Allied came out. The World War II romantic thriller is directed by Academy winner Robert Zemeckis and stars Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard. With that pedigree, it certainly warranted mentions as a potential awards player and I’ve consistently listed it towards the bottom of the pack in my hopefuls for Best Picture (along with Cotillard in Actress).

Critical reaction today is mixed. It stands at 60% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Several critics have admired its old-fashioned sensibilities and Cotillard has gotten some praise (more so than Mr. Pitt, who never really seemed like a contender for this). Other reviews haven’t been so kind (Hollywood Reporter was particularly negative).

Bottom line? Allied is basically out of the running for Picture or Director. It needed stronger reviews than what’s it getting. Cotillard seemed feasible at once, but Best Actress is far too jam packed for her inclusion.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Billy Lynn’s Long Oscar Plummet

 

Blogger’s Update (11/21): Final box office numbers for the film put it at just a $901,000 opening, adding more insult to injury.

When I began writing my Oscar Watch posts several weeks ago, the general consensus was this: Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (based on its festival screenings) was the front runner for Best Picture. It still is. Furthermore, there was a trio of unseen contenders to upset that notion: Martin Scorsese’s Silence, Denzel Washington’s Fences, and Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk.

Silence has still yet to land any eyeballs on it and remains a mystery. Fences has held industry screenings and established itself as a player in Picture and several other races. Yet for Billy, the narrative has gone in a significantly different direction.

The war drama, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, looked to be a serious awards force on paper. After all, Lee has won the Best Director statue twice for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain and 2012’s Life of Pi. Both of those films were nominated for the grand prize but came up short. Two of his other efforts – 1995’s Sense and Sensibility and 2000’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon also nabbed Pic nods. Walk features an eclectic cast surrounding unknown Joe Alwyn in the title role that includes Kristen Stewart, Steve Martin, Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund.

And it was being touted as a potential visual marvel as Lee and his effects crew were shooting it at 120 frames per second (think super duper HD). Then something happened on the march to Academy glory… people actually saw it.

The result? Many critics were not kind to it (it’s at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes). Following its first festival exposure in New York, the Oscar fortunes took a tumble. Yet even after that, I still managed to keep it in my top 20 possibilities for a Picture nomination until yesterday. Why? On the chance that audiences would respond positively enough to it to keep it viable.

Well… that viability just took a nose dive this afternoon. Walk opened wide today and forecasts for the weekend have it grossing just $2-$3 million dollars. Let me translate: it’s bombing very, very badly.

One month ago, before anyone had seen it, Billy Lynn looked like it could receive multiple nominations come Oscar time. As of today, the highest likelihood is that it will walk away with zero.

Oscar Watch: Patriots Day

Just two months back, director Peter Berg and star Mark Wahlberg collaborated on the timely Deepwater Horizon, which opened to decent box office numbers and reviews but little Oscar hope (save for some potential recognition in the Sound categories). Last night at the AFI Film Festival, their third team-up (the other was 2013’s Lone Survivor) was unveiled in the form of Patriots Day.

Another timely drama – Day focuses on the Boston Marathon bombing and the city’s law enforcement and political response to the tragedy. Wahlberg headlines a cast that includes John Goodman, J.K. Simmons, Kevin Bacon, and Michelle Monaghan. The reported response from the AFI crowd was overwhelmingly positive and early critical reaction puts it at 80% on Rotten Tomatoes. The general consensus? “It gets the job done.”

So where does this information put Patriots Day in the Oscar derby? I would say as an outside contender. I had yet to put the picture into consideration in my top 20 possibilities for a nomination, but it’s feasible that it could slide in towards the bottom next week. It certainly seems more likely for a nod than Deepwater. And don’t be shocked if Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross get some love for their score, which has already been singled out in some reviews.

Time will tell if this manages to become more of a realistic possibility as the weeks move along.

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 17th Edition

Hey all! Back at it again with my weekly Thursday Oscar predictions in the eight major categories for your perusal. Over the last seven days, a couple of developments have occurred. Both Rules Don’t Apply and Miss Sloane screened for critics at the AFI Film Festival. Both were looked at as potential awards contenders, yet their prospects both diminished upon their unveiling. The two films are both hovering around mid-60s on Rotten Tomatoes and the likelihood of either competing for the big prize is remote. That does not, however, hold true for their leading performances. Both Warren Beatty in Rules and Jessica Chastain in Sloane are slotted in the #6 position in Actor and Actress, making both of them real possibilities in those races.

On another note, Arrival opened at the box office higher than expected. Audiences were more polarized than critics (many of them loved it) on it, yet its chances at a Best Pic nod seems quite possible at press time.

Allied opens next weekend and reviews should be coming in soon, so its prospects will become much clearer when I write my column on Thanksgiving.

A final comment: next week will be the last weekly post for November and come December, I’ll be predicting the possibilities in all categories at the big dance.

And with that – my weekly Oscar forecast:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees

1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Fences (PR: 2)

3. Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Lion (PR: 5)

5. Silence (PR: 3)

6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)

7. Arrival (PR: 9)

8. Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Loving (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities

10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)

12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)

13. Live by Night (PR: 15)

14. Sully (PR: 16)

15. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)

16. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)

17. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 18)

18. Allied (PR: 20)

19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)

3. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 4)

4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)

5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Denis Villeneuve, Arrival (PR: 6)

7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)

8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)

9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)

10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)

3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)

4. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)

5. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 6)

7. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 7)

9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 9)

10. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)

2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 3)

3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 2)

4. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 6)

5. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities

6. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)

7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 5)

8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)

9. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)

10. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)

2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 3)

4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)

5. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities

6. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 5)

7. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 4)

8. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 7)

9. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)

10. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees

1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)

2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)

3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 4)

5. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 7)

7. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

8. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (PR: 8)

9. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 10)

10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Moonlight (PR: 1)

2. La La Land (PR: 2)

3. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)

4. Jackie (PR: 5)

5. Hell or High Water (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities

6. 20th Century Women (PR: 7)

7. Loving (PR: 4)

8. The Lobster (PR: 8)

9. Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)

10. I, Daniel Blake (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rules Don’t Apply

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees

1. Fences (PR: 1)

2. Lion (PR: 2)

3. Arrival (PR: 4)

4. Silence (PR: 3)

5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities

6. Hidden Figures (PR: 6)

7. Elle (PR: 9)

8. Live by Night (PR: 7)

9. Sully (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Love & Friendship

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Watch: Miss Sloane

Yet another piece of the Oscar puzzle revealed itself last night when Miss Sloane premiered at the AFI Film Festival. This comes from director John Madden (who helmed the 1998 Best Picture winner Shakespeare in Love) and focuses on the issues of gun control and Washington lobbyists.

Some of the early reviews have been positive but others have been mixed (it sits at 60% at the moment on Rotten Tomatoes). This looked like a potential long shot contender for Picture and Director recognition and the buzz out of AFI suggests it won’t happen.

There’s a sterling supporting cast that includes Mark Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Alison Pill, John Lithgow, Jake Lacy, and Sam Waterston. Don’t look for their names, however, to garner any Academy attention. And there’s Gugu Mbatha-Raw, who’s been singled out in some notices and could be a dark horse contender in Supporting Actress (though that probably won’t happen).

No, where Miss Sloane could factor into awards season is the way it’s always thought to have been and that’s with the lead performance from Jessica Chastain. She’s been nominated twice before – in Supporting for 2011’s The Help and lead in 2012’s Zero Dark Thirty. Initial reviews have praised her work and remarked that she carries the movie.

In a normal year, Chastain might be a shoo-in for a nomination. Not in 2016 and that’s because Actress is incredibly competitive this year. The trio of Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (La La Land) all look poised for nods. The final two slots look to be filled by a combo of any of the following: Chastain, Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Amy Adams (Arrival). Upset entries could include Isabelle Huppert (Elle) or Rebecca Hall (Christine). And we are still waiting on Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures) and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers).

See what I mean by competition? That said, Chastain (while no threat to win) solidified her name into this busy race with the Sloane screening.

Oscar Watch: Rules Don’t Apply

The AFI Film Festival is happening in Los Angeles and that gives us an opportunity to hear about more 2016 Oscar hopefuls. This includes the fest’s premiere and it’s an eagerly awaited one – Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply.

This is the Hollywood legend’s first directorial effort in 18 years (since 1998’s well-regarded Bulworth) and first appearance on screen at all in 15 years (since 2001’s less regarded Town & Country). Anything involving Beatty is going to quickly raise questions as to its awards possibilities and this long gestating project where he portrays Howard Hughes is no exception.

It was thought for months that Mr. Beatty would compete in the Supporting Actor race until recently where a switch to Actor was announced. Reviews for Rules have been a bit mixed and even the most positive haven’t been raves. It’s at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and chances of a Picture or Director nod seem highly unlikely. Same goes for anyone in the supporting cast that includes Lily Collins, Alden Ehrenreich, Annette Bening (she’ll get recognized anyway this year for 20th Century Women), Matthew Broderick, Alec Baldwin, and others.

As for Beatty in the Best Actor category, it’s certainly no guarantee he will get nominated, but that particular race is a bit weak this year (once you get past Denzel Washington for Fences and Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea). I would anticipate Beatty will be in the mix over the next several weeks, but whether he makes my final cut for the final five is a question mark.