Category: Oscar Predictions

If it seems a little early to be speculating on what movies might receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination for 2013… well, not really. Granted, most of these titles don’t even have trailers yet and the majority won’t be released until fall. Some don’t even have set release dates at the moment.

However, I realized that if this blog existed one year ago today and I had produced a list of 25 potential films, I would have included Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Zero Dark Thirty. These composed six of the nine features nominated and the winner.

Scouring over the list of movies coming out in the remainder of the year, some things are for certain: there will be surprises. Films that come out of nowhere on the festival circuit that will become contenders. Also: some of the movies mentioned here will simply not pan out, not get very good reviews, and disappear from consideration. A 2012 example: Hyde Park on Hudson, with Bill Murray playing President Franklin D. Roosevelt. It certainly would have been on my list of consideration one year ago today. The picture was released, wasn’t well-received, and came and went quickly. Finally, I’m guessing at least five of the titles mentioned here will end up getting Best Picture nominations. Among the 25 titles I’m listing, I will note my Top Five most likely contenders for the big prize at this juncture.

And with that, here are 25 Early Best Picture Contenders for the 2013 Oscars:

August: Osage County

This family drama, from director John Wells (known more for his TV work on ER and The West Wing) has an impressive cast that includes Oscar darling Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Chris Cooper, and Ewan McGregor. Release Date: November 8.

Before Midnight

This is Richard Linklater’s third in his series of romantic dramas starring Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy, following 1995’s Before Sunrise and 2004’s Before Sunset. The two earlier titles received enormous critical acclaim and the Academy may feel it’s time to honor them by honoring this one. The picture screened recently at the Sundance Film Festival to very positive notices. Release Date: May 24.

Blue Jasmine

Woody Allen’s latest picture starring Alec Baldwin and Cate Blanchett. It’s a roll of the dice with Woody’s films. In 2011, his Midnight in Paris was his highest grosser of all time and earned a Best Picture nomination. In 2012, his To Rome in Love opened to mediocre reviews and box office and received zero awards attention. Impossible to know where this one falls, but it’d be foolish to leave it out of the running right now. Release Date: July 26.

The Butler

Director Lee Daniels got the attention of the Academy when his feature Precious scored a Best Pic nod in 2009. His follow-up, last year’s The Paperboy, was met with critical scorn. The Butler sounds like more an awards contender, with Forest Whitaker playing a real life person who served as a White House butler for eight Presidents. The Butler will certainly garner attention for Whitaker’s performance. It includes an impressive supporting cast: John Cusack, Robin Williams, Oprah Winfrey, Alan Rickman, and Jane Fonda, among others. Release Date: October 18.

Captain Phillips

Paul Greengrass is the man responsible for directing the second and third Jason Bourne flicks, as well as United 93. This feature focuses on the Somali Pirate hostage incident of 2009 and stars Academy heavyweight Tom Hanks. Release Date: October 11.

The Counselor

Ridley Scott directs this thriller about an attorney (Michael Fassbender) who gets involved in the world of drug trafficking. Scott has directed his share of Best Pic nominees and winners, including Gladiator and Black Hawk Down. This boasts a heckuva supporting cast, including Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Release Date: November 15.

The Dallas Buyer’s Club

Matthew McConaughey has experienced a career resurgence as of late, with critically acclaimed performances in The Lincoln Lawyer, Magic Mike, and Bernie. This film could earn McConaughey an Oscar nod, playing a HIV positive man in the 1980s who begins smuggling alternative medicine into the U.S. McConaughey underwent a drastic weight loss to play the character. A nomination for him seems quite possible, but if audiences respond to the movie as well, it could be a contender. Release Date: Fall 2013.

Diana

Focusing on the last two years of Princess Diana’s life, Diana may garner the most Oscar attention for Naomi Watts’s performance as the Princess. Once again, though, if the film is really good… Release Date: Fall 2013.

Elysium

The sci-fi thriller is director Neil Blomkamp’s follow-up to 2009’s District 9, which received a Best Picture nomination. That alone makes it a contender. Elysium stars Matt Damon and Jodie Foster. Release Date: August 9.

Foxcatcher

Director Bennett Miller’s last two featues, 2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball, both received Best Picture nominations. This drama focuses on the real life case of John duPont’s killing of Olympic wrestler Dave Schultz. With Steve Carell as duPont and Mark Ruffalo as Schultz, expect the actors to receive Oscar attention as well. Release Date: Fall 2013. TOP FIVE CONTENDER

Fruitvale

This indie drama that premiered at Sundance recently inspired a bidding war among studios that the Weinstein Company won (the studio that knows how to get Oscar nominations). For some historical perspective, two 2009 nominees (Precious, An Education), two 2010 nominees (The Kids Are All Right, Winter’s Bone) and a 2012 nominee (Beasts of the Southern Wild) debuted as Sundance and were audience favorites, like Fruitvale was. So its chances seem solid at the moment. Release Date: Undetermined.

Grace of Monaco

Like Diana, this picture focusing on the life of actress and Princess Grace Kelly may get more awards attention for Nicole Kidman’s performance in the lead role, as well as costars Tim Roth and Frank Langella. And like Diana, it could get a Best Pic nomination depending on how good it is. Release Date: December 27.

Gravity

Director Alfonso Cuaron is one of the most acclaimed directors of the last decade, having made Y Tu Mama Tambien, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, and Children of Men. This sci-fi drama stars Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. Release Date: October 4.

The Great Gatsby

This one’s a big question mark. Director Baz Luhrmann’s retelling of the F. Scott Fitzgerald novel and 1974 Robert Redford film boasts an all-star cast including Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire. Gatsby was pushed back from its original Christmas 2012 release date, a time period usually reserved for more award-worthy material. Its summer 2013 release date may boost its box office potential, but not its awards potential. Release Date: May 10.

Inside Llewyn Davis

You can never count any Coen Bros movie out of the Best Picture race. Three out of their last four features have received nominations (No Country for Old Men, A Serious Man, True Grit). Davis focuses on the folk music scene in the 1960s and stars Oscar Isaac, Carey Mulligan, and Justin Timberlake. Release Date: Fall 2013.

Labor Day

Director Jason Reitman saw two of his films in a row, 2007’s Juno and 2009’s Up in the Air, receive nominations before his follow-up, 2011’s Young Adult got zero attention. This drama, starring Kate Winslet, Josh Brolin, and Tobey Maguire, could be a return to form. Release Date: Fall 2013.

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

This Mandela biopic with Idris Elba in the title role could certainly receive attention for its star and the movie itself. It was picked up by the Weinstein Company and given a plum awards consideration debut slot. Release Date: November 29.

Monuments Men

George Clooney directs this World War II drama about a team of men sent to Germany to save priceless pieces of art before Hitler destroys them. With an all-star cast including Clooney, Cate Blanchett, John Goodman, Bill Murray, Jean Dujardin, and Matt Damon, this one is undoubtedly a major contender. Release Date: December 18. TOP FIVE CONTENDER

A Most Wanted Man

Based on a John le Carre, this thriller stars Rachel McAdams, Robin Wright, and Oscar darling Philip Seymour Hoffman. Release Date: November 2013.

Nebraska

Director Alexander Payne’s last two features, 2004’s Sideways and 2011’s The Descendants, both received nominations. That bodes well for this road trip drama starring veteran actor Bruce Dern and SNL alum (and MacGruber) Will Forte. Expect considerable attention for Dern for a Best Actor nomination. Release Date: Fall 2013.

Out of the Furnace

Scott Cooper’s directorial follow-up to 2009’s Crazy Heart (which earned Jeff Bridges a Best Actor win) is a crime thriller starring Christian Bale, Forest Whitaker, and Woody Harrelson. Release Date: Fall 2013.

Saving Mr. Banks

From director John Lee Hancock, who made the 2009 Best Pic nominee The Blind Side, comes this drama about the making of 1964’s Mary Poppins. With previous winners Tom Hanks as Walt Disney and Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers, this could be a big hit and a nominee. Co-stars Colin Farrell and Paul Giamatti. Release Date: December 20. TOP FIVE CONTENDER

12 Years a Slave

The historical drama from Shame director Steve McQueen boasts a cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Paul Dano, and Paul Giamatti. Release Date: Fall 2013.

Untitled David O. Russell Project

Director David O. Russell has also seen his last two pictures, 2010’s The Fighter and 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, earn nominations. This drama focuses on the Abscam political scandals of the 1970s and 1980s that brought down several Congressmen. Silver Linings costars Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence join a cast with Fighter costar Christian Bale, as well as Jeremy Renner. Release Date: December 25. TOP FIVE CONTENDER

The Wolf of Wall Street

Martin Scorsese has seen four of his last five movies nominated (Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Hugo). His latest is a crime drama starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Jonah Hill, Matthew McConaughey, and Jean Dujardin. Expect this one to be considered a major player the whole way through. TOP FIVE CONTENDER

After a whole lotta speculation on this here blog, the 2012 Oscars have come and gone. Soon enough, I’ll be speculating on what/who gets nominated for 2013 movies. That’s a little ways off, however, so let’s talk about the ceremony last night.

As far as the winners, no huge surprises. I went 15/20 on my picks (not bad). In the six major categories, it was 5 for 6. I picked Tommy Lee Jones to win for Lincoln, but the Academy honored Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained. As I mentioned before on the blog, this category was more wide open than many others and I saw Jones, Waltz, and De Niro as real possibilities to win. Needless to say, Mr. Waltz’s association with Mr. Tarantino has turned out quite well.

The precursor award ceremonies like the SAG and Golden Globe awards made it much easier to predict Argo for the win and that’s what happened. When I made that decision, it made it easier to predict Ang Lee would get honored for his achievements directing Life of Pi, with Argo director Ben Affleck not being nominated. The folks out there expressing shock that Lincoln and Spielberg didn’t win probably should have paid more attention to the precursors… in which the film and Mr. Spielberg pretty much got nothing. While the film and director weren’t victorious, Daniel Day-Lewis being honored was a foregone conclusion and he becomes the first to win Best Actor three times. Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook had gained the momentum in the last few weeks, giving her the edge over Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty. And Anne Hathaway, like Day-Lewis, was an obvious choice as she’d won every major precursor.

I was slightly surprised Brave won Best Animated Feature over Wreck-It Ralph, but lesson learned. Don’t bet against Pixar in that category. I also predicted Anna Karenina would win Production Design. Lincoln won. I picked up Skyfall for Sound Mixing and Les Miserables won. And I wrongly picked against Les Mis for Makeup/Hairstyling, incorrectly guessing The Hobbit. An interesting note in another race: I did correctly pick Skyfall for Sound Editing, but it actually tied with Zero Dark Thirty. That is the only the sixth time in 85 years of Oscars where a tie has occurred.

Interestingly, the six major categories were awarded to six different movies that were all nominees in the Best Picture race. This shows you more than anything else what a strong year 2012 was in the theaters.

As for the ceremony itself? Eh, it was decent. It went way longer than it should have, like it always does. Seth MacFarlane proved to be an adequate host. He was probably a bit tamer than some would have expected, but “edgy” and “Oscar host” usually doesn’t mix. I love David Letterman and Chris Rock, but they seemed a bit out of place when they handled hosting duties. There was nothing particularly memorable about MacFarlane in his hosting gig (let’s face it: it’s a thankless job). But he was pretty solid. If I was producing the Oscars, I’d have Jimmy Fallon and Justin Timberlake co-host. I think they’d be great.

The show’s focus on musicals produced a mixed bag. For me personally, there were probably a couple too many song and dance numbers. And I found it a strange choice to honor “the history” of musicals with Chicago, Dreamgirls, and Les Miserables, three films released in the past decade. I mean, Jennifer Hudson is a wonderful singer, but I seem to recall that same Oscar performance only six years ago. On the flip side, two terrific musical moments came from the James Bond franchise, with Shirley Bassey and Adele killing it with “Goldfinger” and “Skyfall”, respectively.

Some of the acceptance speeches were quite good. I’m particularly thinking of Mr. Day-Lewis and a clearly emotional Ben Affleck accepting Best Picture. And J-Law is just great!

All in all, the Oscars closed a chapter on a truly impressive year in film in satisfactory fashion.

We’re two months into 2013 and I think I can safely say none of next year’s Best Picture nominees have come out yet. Not even Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters.

As you faithful readers have seen throughout the week, I’ve written several blog posts predicting what I believe will win in the feature film categories at this Sunday’s Oscars.

If you’re filling out your own Oscar picks, I felt it would be convenient to post all my predictions in one place. So, from me to you, Todd’s Final Oscar Predictions:

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour

Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo

Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Cinematography: Life of Pi

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Editing: Argo

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Best Original Score: Life of Pi

Best Original Song: “Skyfall” from Skyfall

Best Production Design: Anna Karenina

Best Sound Editing: Skyfall

Best Sound Mixing: Skyfall

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

So there you have it! My predictions give Life of Pi the most wins at four, with Argo and Skyfall picking up three and Anna Karenina and Lincoln with two.

I am also predicting the James Bond tribute will be totally awesome!

Well, my friends, we have arrived at my FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions for the two FINAL categories I’ve yet to predict and they’re the big ones: Best Picture and Best Director. I made an editorial decision to combine these together because explaining my pick on each race go hand-in-hand.

Additionally, these two categories have historically matched up. Explanation: of the 85 titles that have won Best Picture in Academy history, 62 of those film’s directors won Best Director. From a more recent historical perspective, the last 25 Best Picture winners have seen their directors honored 21 times. That’s 84% of the time over the last quarter century, math fans!

Based on those numbers, it would stand to reason that whomever wins Best Director will see their movie win Best Picture, right?

… Not so fast. 2012 has been anything but typical, especially in the Best Director category. When the nominations were announced a few weeks ago, the five nominees sent shock waves through Hollywood and with Oscar prognosticators, such as yours truly.

Why? While Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) were not surprising, the inclusion of Benh Zietlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild was. To a lesser degree, so was Michael Haneke for Amour.

But, it wasn’t necessarily who was nominated, but who wasn’t that confounded everyone. Especially in the case of Ben Affleck, who was seen as a surefire nominee for Argo. And while not totally surefire, it was widely expected that Kathryn Bigelow would be nominated for her work in Zero Dark Thirty. 

Since the nominations came out, Affleck has pretty much won everything else, including the Director’s Guild of America Award and the Golden Globe. Argo itself has been cleaning up, winning Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards and winning Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Critic’s Choice Awards.

Let me put it to you this way: if Affleck had been nominated for Best Director, I would pick him to win. Yet he’s not. This leaves Spielberg, Lee, Russell, Zietlin, and Haneke. Let’s cross off Zietlin and Haneke right now. They don’t really stand a chance.

So we’re left with Spielberg, Lee, and Russell. And this is a truly difficult pick among the three. Spielberg is obviously one of the biggest directors of all time (probably the biggest) and he’s won Best Director twice, in 1993 for Schindler’s List and in 1998 for Saving Private Ryan. Lee is also a past winner for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain. Russell has yet to win, but he’s a critically acclaimed auteur with credits such as Three Kings and The Fighter. It could come down to current momentum of the pictures they directed. Lincoln has seemed to be losing it; Silver Linings Playbook has seemed to be gaining it. This would make it more likely that Mr. Russell wins than Mr. Spielberg. I’m not sure if I buy this argument, however. Silver Linings Playbook is one of the films with major momentum at the right time, but it may be seen as more of an actors showcase than a directorial achievement. And Lincoln could certainly have enough good will to propel Spielberg to the win. At the end of the day, however, it doesn’t matter when it comes to my final prediction. Life of Pi is a dark horse candidate to win Best Picture, but I believe the Director category will recognize its significance for what Ang Lee was able to accomplish. With Affleck out of the race, it is a three person competition and any one of them could win. A pick must be made and, for the reasons given, I will go with:

Best Director Prediction: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Which brings us to Best Picture and its nine nominees.

First things first: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Django Unchained are not going to win. Period.

We have two titles that at one time seemed strong contenders: Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty. Since that time, neither has won any significant precursors and their buzz has faded greatly. Neither Les Mis or Zero Dark will win Best Picture.

This creates a legitimate race between four titles: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook. Let’s look at each:

Argo, upon its release in October, immediately vaulted to the top of the list for Best Picture contenders. It was critically acclaimed and was a huge box office success. It ended up losing some momentum when Lincoln, Les Mis, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi, and Silver Linings came out after it. Then a strange thing happened. Some of the movies ended up losing their momentum. The film won the Golden Globe for Best Drama and the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Picture, as well as the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. Affleck started winning all the Best Director awards at other ceremonies, even though Oscar snubbed him.

Life of Pi was also a critical and commercial from very well-respected director Ang Lee. Fans of the novel were nervous that it would be a tough one to adapt for the screen, but it ended up being a success. This is indeed a movie where those who love it really love it.

Lincoln was a front runner for the award since the moment it was announced to start filming. Spielberg + Day-Lewis + Lincoln? I mean, come on! It also earned great reviews and terrific box office. However, other than Day-Lewis winning Actor constantly, the film itself has under performed big time at precursor awards shows. Still, that doesn’t mean the Academy wouldn’t honor it.

Silver Linings Playbook is the hot movie of the moment. Keep in mind that voting for the Oscars ended just on Tuesday. So whatever is carrying the momentum now could be the victor. The film is the first picture in 31 years to see four performers nominated in all four acting categories. Like Life of Pi, those who love it love it. Like the other three likely winners, it also received fantastic reviews and audiences loved it.

So where does that leave us? Well, it leaves me with having to make a prediction and this is one of the most competitive and unpredictable Best Picture races in history. It really is. Of the four titles that I believe have a shot, I put Life of Pi fourth, even though I’m predicting Ang Lee will win Best Director.

The absence of Lincoln winning any well-known precursors has to say something, right? While a Day-Lewis victory is near certain and I’m predicting Tommy Lee Jones will win Supporting Actor (something I’m much less certain of), I am not predicting Lincoln wins Best Picture.

This leaves Argo and Silver Linings Playbook, the two movies with the right buzz at the right time. If Argo were to win, it would only the fourth time in 85 years that a movie won and its director wasn’t even nominated. It would be only the second time that’s happened in (get this) 81 years. That historical fact alone should be enough to warrant against picking Argo for the win.

However, 2012 has been a strange year for nominations and I will predict the strangeness continues. While Silver Linings Playbook has a solid shot, my FINAL prediction is:

Best Picture Prediction: Argo

And there you have it! My FINAL predictions in all feature film related categories are officially complete. I will certainly have a post late Sunday or Monday with my reaction to what went down. Enjoy the Oscars on Sunday, my friends! I know I will.

The 2012 crop of Best Actor nominees is definitely one of the strongest fields of contenders we’ve had in quite some time. In a lesser field, we likely would have seen such nominees as John Hawkes in The Sessions. Or Richard Gere in what’s said to be a career-best performance in Arbitrage. Or Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained. Or Suraj Sharma in Life of Pi. Perhaps Jake Gyllenhall for his fine work in End of Watch. None were nominated.

In a different field of nominees, Denzel Washington’s astonishing performance in Flight might win. He’s nominated and won’t win.

In a different field of nominees, Joaquin Phoenix’s brilliant work in The Master might win. He’s nominated and won’t win.

In a different field of nominees, Hugh Jackman might win for what is considered the best role so far in his career for Les Miserables. He’s nominated and won’t win.

In a different field of nominees, the momentum of Silver Linings Playbook might cause Bradley Cooper to be recognized for his work, which is equally as great as his co-star Jennifer Lawrence, who may very well win. He’s nominated and won’t win.

That’s because this field of nominees includes Daniel Day-Lewis as Lincoln. No need to go into much explanation here. He’s won pretty much every major precursor that exists, including the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice Award.

If Day-Lewis does not win for Steven Spielberg’s film, it would constitute one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history.

But, you see, Daniel Day-Lewis is nominated. And he will win. And he will become the first performer ever to win the Best Actor award three times.

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

The Best Actress category for this year’s Academy Awards, airing Sunday, is indeed a competitive one. The race has actually made some history by nominating its youngest actress ever, 9 year-old Quevenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild, as well as its oldest, 85 year-old Emmanuelle Riva for Amour.

Neither seems very likely to take home the gold and neither does Naomi Watts for her work in The Impossible. For quite a while now, this race seems to be a strong competition between Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty and Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. 

Let’s take a look at some of the major Oscar precursors and who they honored. While the British awards (the BAFTA’s) honored Riva and the New York Film Critics honored Rachel Weisz for The Deep Blue Sea (she’s not nominated here), the rest of the story shows an even split among Chastain and Lawrence. The Critics Choice Awards and the National Board of Review went with Chastain. The SAG awards and L.A. Film Critics honored Lawrence. The biggest Academy precursor, the Golden Globes, has two separate categories: one for Drama and one for Musical/Comedy. The winners? Chastain and Lawrence, respectively.

While Wallis and Watts’s chances are next to none, the potential for a spoiler could be Riva. However, I’ll stick with my assertion that this is pretty much a two-woman competition. Both have a great shot at winning. They’re both relatively new to the scene, but both Chastain and Lawrence are recent past nominees. Lawrence was nominated for Actress in 2010 for Winter’s Bone. Chastain picked up a Supporting Actress nomination in 2011 for The Help. 

It’s a close call for a prediction, but at the end of the day, I’ll go with momentum. Zero Dark Thirty has lost momentum. Director Kathryn Bigelow was surprisingly snubbed. Meanwhile, Silver Linings Playbook is the first picture in 31 years where four performances were nominated in the four acting categories. The film has become a huge financial success, crossing the $100 million dollar mark just today. Audiences love it. Critics love it. And it doesn’t hurt Lawrence’s chances that she’s been on an amazing roll lately. In 2012, besides her lauded role here, she also starred in one of the year’s mega blockbusters, The Hunger Games.

Add all that up and I’m predicting Jennifer Lawrence will win Best Actress on Sunday night.

Continuing with my final Oscar predictions this week for the ceremony that airs this Sunday, we move onto Best Supporting Actor.

While the Supporting Actress category seems about a 99.9% probability to go to Anne Hathaway, this race is much more competitive. Just to give you an idea, the precursor awards have been all over the map. The big city critics group even honored two actors that aren’t nominated here. The New York Association bestowed their award to Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike and Bernie, while the L.A. critics named Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Also, the National Board of Review honored another actor not nominated here, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained.

As for the people actually nominated, both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA’s honored Christoph Waltz for Django. The Critics Choice Awards named Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master. The SAG award went to Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. The other two nominees, Alan Arkin for Argo and Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, have picked up no major precursors.

You don’t say this often about a major category, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to hear any of the five nominees have their name called. Of all the six big races, this seems most likely for an “upset”. Major momentum for Argo or Silver Linings could sway the vote to Arkin or De Niro. That “upset” possibility seems most likely for Mr. De Niro.

I would actually be most surprised to hear Hoffman’s name called, but it’s not out of the question. Waltz is a very real contender, but the fact that he won just three years ago for Inglourious Basterds could hurt his chances.

That leaves us with Tommy Lee Jones. He’s received some of the best reviews of his career in his long and illustrious career for Lincoln. It’s been 19 years since he won for The Fugitive. 

As I said, this is a difficult race to make a final call on. I’m going with Tommy Lee, though, for the win.

Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

We move today to the six major categories for the Academy Awards, airing next Sunday.

In the Best Supporting Actress category, this race was basically over before it started. Anne Hathaway’s performance as Fantine in Les Miserables was seen as the likely choice for the win. That never changed at all. Those with knowledge of the play knew that this was a meaty role. Couple this with the fact that Hathaway is a popular Hollywood starlet who’s given fine performances in The Devil Wears Prada and Love and Other Drugs only helped. Also, she gave a well-received performance in last summer’s blockbuster The Dark Knight Rises. 2012 was a watershed year for Hathaway.

The Oscar precursors have been very kind. Hathaway has picked up the Golden Globe, the SAG award, the BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Award. Of all the six major categories, this one (and another we’ll get to soon) seem the easiest to pick. Simply put, it would be a major shock if Hathaway doesn’t take home the gold statue.

As for the other nominees, Sally Field’s work as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln seems to be the other performance with a small (quite small) chance of an upset. Field is a well-respected actress who’s won two previous Oscars in the leading Actress category. She did pick up the New York Critics award.

The other three nominees should consider the nomination their victory. Amy Adams did win the L.A. Film Critics Award for The Master, but she’s got no real chance. The other nominees are Helen Hunt in The Sessions and Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook.

The Best Supporting Actress award will go to Ms. Hathaway and I’m supremely confident in the pick.

Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

My FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions posts will continue with Best Supporting Actor.

With the Seth MacFarlane hosted Academy Awards set to air one week from today, it’s time to delve into my predictions for what will win in every category. Well, almost every category. I will not pretend to know what might be victorious in the “non-feature” races like documentary feature and short subject and animated and live-action short film. Everything else is on the table for predictions.

For your reading purposes, here’s the schedule of my predictions for winners:

Today: All Categories Outside the “Big Six” Races

Monday: Best Supporting Actress

Tuesday: Best Supporting Actor

Wednesday: Best Actress

Thursday: Best Actor

Friday: Best Director

Saturday: Best Picture

This should leave you just enough time to blame me if you go by my predictions in your office Oscar pool. So let’s get started. In each race, I’ll list the nominees and reveal my pick to win. And away we go:

Best Foreign Language Film

Amour (Austria)

Kon-Tiki (Norway)

No (Chile)

A Royal Affair (Denmark)

War Witch (Canada)

Prediction: Amour. The foreign film category can be tricky to predict in some years, but 2012 appears to be an exception. Michael Haneke’s Amour is also nominated for Best Picture and the director was nominated as well. This all points to a very high probability that Amour wins in this race.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Prediction: Argo. All five selections are also nominated for Best Picture as well. This one appears to be a race between Argo and Lincoln, with Silver Linings as a dark horse. Argo seems to be gaining momentum at the right time, so I’m going with screenwriter Chris Terrio picking up the statue, though if Lincoln has a good night, who knows?

Best Original Screenplay

Amour

Django Unchained

Flight

Moonrise Kingdom

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Django Unchained. This category is looking like a repeat of 2009, when Mark Boal won the award for Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker over Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds. In 2012, I look for that to be reversed. Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty seems to have lost momentum (especially with Bigelow’s directing snub) and Boal will likely find himself losing to Mr. Tarantino. If there’s any dark horse, it’s Moonrise Kingdom, but this appears to be a two film race.

Best Animated Feature Film

Brave

FrankenWeenie

ParaNorman

The Pirates! Band of Misfits

Wreck-It Ralph

Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph. In a solid year for animated features, this looks to be a race between Ralph and Brave. Even though Pixar usually cleans up in this category, Brave was not met with the major acclaim afforded to titles like The Incredibles, Wall-E, and Up. I will go with Wreck-It Ralph for the win, even though a Brave victory would not be a big surprise.

Best Cinematography

Anna Karenina

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Prediction: Life of Pi. Ang Lee’s picture is a marvelous technical achievement on all levels and I expect Claudio Miranda will be honored here. A Lincoln win is not out of the question, but Pi should be the front runner.

Best Costume Design

Anna Karenina

Les Miserables

Lincoln

Mirror Mirror

Snow White and the Huntsman

Prediction: Anna Karenina. This is the kind of lush period piece that seems suited to win this category. Les Mis is certainly a contender and a big night for Lincoln could mean a victory here, but Keira Knightley + corsets should = win.

Best Film Editing

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Argo. This is actually a really tough one. Lincoln could take the prize. So could Life of Pi. This also seems to be the one category that Zero Dark has a legit shot at. In the end, I think the Argo-mentum gives it the edge. Not a whole lot of confidence here though.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Hitchock

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. The makeup work for Hitchcock was actually met with a fairly tepid response, so this appears to be a two film race. I’ll give the edge to the Hobbit team.

Best Original Score

Anna Karenina

Argo

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Prediction: Life of Pi. Here’s another one that could go to multiple nominees – I see Argo, Pi, and Lincoln as contenders. I’ll go with Mychael Danna’s work in the Ang Lee film, but don’t be surprised to see either of the others pick it up.

Best Original Song

“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice

“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted

“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi

“Skyfall” from Skyfall

“Suddenly” from Les Miserables

Prediction: “Skyfall” from Skyfall. A few months ago, you might have figured an original tune from Les Mis would be the obvious choice. That was until Adele’s terrific Bond theme came out. I’ll pick the British superstar for the victory with a high degree of confidence.

Best Production Design

Anna Karenina

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Prediction: Anna Karenina. This is another tough call. Formerly called the Best Art Direction category, this race favors period pieces. Les Mis has a real shot here, as does Lincoln. Still, Karenina is in the mix and I’ll go with it winning this and Costume Design. Not a lot of confidence here.

Best Sound Editing

Argo

Django Unchained

Life of Pi

Skyfall

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: Skyfall. Yet another very difficult choice! This could easily go three ways: Bond, Zero Dark, or Life of Pi. I’ll say the 007 team gets rewarded here, but picking any of the three I named makes perfect sense.

Best Sound Mixing

Argo

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Skyfall

Prediction: Skyfall. Ugh, another tough one. I’m thinking they have to honor Les Mis with something in the technical categories, right? Still, 007 poses a very real threat here. I’m truly 50/50 on this. Maybe I’ve got too much Bond on the brain lately, but I’m sticking with 007.

Best Visual Effects

The Avengers

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Life of Pi

Prometheus

Snow White and the Huntsman

Prediction: Life of Pi. The amazing Pi visuals make this an obvious choice. The Hobbit has a small chance to spoil, but I would pick this category with no reservations.

And there you have it… my take on all the “other races”. We’ll get to the majors tomorrow with Best Supporting Actress. Stay tuned!

Now that the Oscar nominations have been out and I’ve posted my reactions a few days ago, we begin a feature in which I post where I think the six biggest categories currently stand. I will list each category and number the nominees in order of what I believe their chances of winning are. Here we go:

BEST PICTURE

Lincoln appears to be the frontrunner at this point, especially with Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, and Les Miserables not receiving nominations for their directors. The competition for Lincoln appears to be Life of Pi and possibly Silver Linings Playbook at this juncture.

1. Lincoln

2. Life of Pi

3. Silver Linings Playbook

4. Argo

5. Zero Dark Thirty

6. Les Miserables

7. Beasts of the Southern Wild

8. Django Unchained

9. Amour

BEST DIRECTOR

The Best Picture winner and Best Director tend to match up, but not always. We’ll leave Spielberg at the top, but I think there’s a very real chance of Ang Lee getting recognized for Life of Pi.

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

2. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

4. Michael Haneke, Amour

5. Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis is the clear and overwhelming favorite in the category. Anyone else winning would be a major surprise.

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

2. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

3. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

4. Denzel Washington, Flight

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

BEST ACTRESS

Still continues to be a real race between Chastain and Lawrence. They seem to have about an equal chance of winning at this point, but I’ll give an ever so slight edge to Chastain. Subject to change for sure.

1. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

2. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

4. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Truly a tough call. I honestly wouldn’t be overly shocked if any of these nominees end up winning. Waltz winning the Golden Globe was a bit of a surprise and helped his possibilities. For now, I’ll say the success of Lincoln propels Jones.

1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

2. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Alan Arkin, Argo

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like the Best Actor race, we have a solid frontrunner here: Hathaway. Field has a shot, but it’s unlikely.

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

2. Sally Field, Lincoln

3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

4. Amy Adams, The Master

5. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

That’s all for now folks!