Stan & Ollie has just closed out the London Film Festival and reviews are piling up. The film centers on legendary comedy duo Stan Laurel (Steve Coogan) and Oliver Hardy (John C. Reilly) in the waning times of their career. Jon S. Baird directs with a screenplay from Jeff Pope, who was nominated for his adapted screenplay along with Mr. Coogan five years ago for Philomena.
Most early reviews indicate this a winner. Some point out flaws in the picture itself, though praise appears to be unanimous for its two leads. Distributor Entertainment One has reportedly made the choice to campaign for Coogan and Reilly in the lead Actor race at the Oscars. That could be tricky. That category is already looking very crowded. Beyond that, the two could cancel each other out. Additionally, Reilly faces competition with himself when you include his performance in TheSistersBrothers.
Bottom line: I don’t see Stan & Ollie as a factor in Best Picture. In a weaker year, Best Actor (for Reilly especially) could be reachable, but is more of a long shot. Pope could find himself in the mix for Original Screenplay if this gets enough exposure, but that also appears unlikely right now. Its best chance at any nod may well be Makeup & Hairstyling with Reilly’s transformation into Hardy.
Stan & Ollie opens December 28 stateside in limited release. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s only mid-October, but the first significant precursor of awards season rolled out nominations today in the form of the Gotham Awards. If you’re not familiar, the Gothams honor independent film in a limited number of categories.
While not as prolific as the Golden Globes or SAG nominations, there has been a correlation with movies and performers nominated here getting Oscar attention. Let’s take a look at the past five Gotham awards nominees and how they matched up with the Academy:
In 2013, 12 Years a Slave was nominated for Best Feature and went on to win the Oscar. In the Best Actor race, eventual Academy winner Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) was victorious here and Chiwetel Ejiofor (Slave) also was nominated for both. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) was nominated here and went on to win the gold statue. It’s worth noting that the Gothams do not have supporting acting categories (we’ll get to that in a minute).
In 2014, three movies that got Best Picture nods were honored here: Birdman (Oscar winner), Boyhood, and The Grand Budapest Hotel. In the acting races, Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Oscar/Gotham winner Julianne Moore (Still Alice) were included.
For 2015, no Best Actor nominees for the Gothams correlated to Oscars. However, there were actress match-ups with Oscar winner Brie Larson (Room) and Cate Blanchett (Carol). Also – the Gotham and Oscar Best Picture winners were the same – Spotlight.
That happened once again in 2016 as Moonlight won the Oscar and the Gotham. Manchester by the Sea was also nominated for both. Casey Affleck’s work in that film won Best Actor at both ceremonies. For Actress, Natalie Portman as Jackie got double nods.
Last year, two Gotham Film nominees got Best Picture recognition: Call Me by Your Name and Get Out. In Actor, it was Daniel Kaluuya for Get Out as a double recipient. In Actress, same goes for Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird) and Margot Robbie (I, Tonya). And coming back to the fact that there’s no supporting races, Willem Dafoe received an Actor nomination at the Gothams for The Florida Project while being recognized for Supporting Actor at the Oscars.
So, as you can see, there’s usually some overlap for the two ceremonies. And that brings us to today’s nominees and how I think that overlap will occur this year:
In the Gotham Best Feature race, the nominees are:
The Favourite
First Reformed
If Beale Street Could Talk
Madeline’s Madeline
The River
The average number of Gotham/Oscar film nominees lately has been two and that likely holds true here with The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk. The other three are highly unlikely to get Academy recognition.
In the Best Actor race, the nominees are:
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
LaKeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You
Grant is probably this year’s Willem Dafoe and will be recognized by the Academy in Supporting Actor. Adam Driver falls in the same category, but is more of a long shot. Stanfield is out of the running for Actor at the Oscars, while Foster and Hawke remain possibilities. That said – like 2015 – this could well be a year where there’s no matches.
That is not the case with Actress and the nominees are:
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Kathryn Hahn, Private Life
Regina Hall, Support the Girls
Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?
Collette is a possible nominee, but it’s Close that seems a near lock for Oscar attention and a possible win. The others? Not so much.
Finally, a Special Jury prize was initiated that honors the three actresses from The Favourite. That would be Olivia Colman, Emma Stone, and Rachel Weisz and all three could find themselves in the mix at Oscar time. The Gothams did the same jury designation for 2014’s Foxcatcher and 2015’s Spotlight.
So there you have it! My take on how the Gotham Awards will relate to the biggest awards show of all…
Back at it again with my weekly Thursday predictions in the major categories for this year’s Oscars! Here’s some tidbits about developments over the past week:
Damien Chazelle’s First Man experienced a lackluster liftoff at the box office this past weekend with just $16 million (about $5 million or so below expectations). Will this alter its course for numerous nominations? Short answer: probably not. However, I do have it dropping spots in Picture, Director, and Actor while still predicting nods for all three. Claire Foy remains at #2 behind Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) for Supporting Actress.
Speaking of that category, it will finally confirmed this week regarding placement of performers for The Favourite. Olivia Colman will compete in lead Actress with Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz in Supporting. As I have projected for weeks, I think that bodes well for all three actresses in garnering nods.
Beautiful Boy performed very well in limited release last week and I have vaulted Timothee Chalamet back to the #1 spot in the fluid Supporting Actor race.
And with that – here’s where I think Oscar standings are at this moment in time…
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. The Favourite (PR: 4)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. First Man (PR: 3)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Widows (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 15)
14. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 16)
15. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)
16. Boy Erased (PR: 14)
17. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 18)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 19)
20. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)
21. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 25)
22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)
23. The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
24. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Front Runner (PR: 24)
Dropped Out:
At Eternity’s Gate
The Sisters Brothers
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
4. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 10)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 13)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 12)
13. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)
15. Jon M. Chu, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)
4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)
5. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)
9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
10. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 11)
11. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)
12. Lucas Hedges, Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 15)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 14)
15. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 11)
11. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)
12. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)
13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 14)
14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 13)
15. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Keira Knightley, Colette
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 3)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
8. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)
11. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
12. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
13. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Robert Forster, What They Had (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk
Bradley Cooper, The Mule
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)
A week from today, Bleecker Street releases What They Had in limited fashion. The film marks the directorial debut of Elizabeth Chomko (who also wrote the script) and centers on a family dealing with a mother diagnosed with Alzheimer’s. It premiered at Sundance back in January and features a cast including Hilary Swank (two-time winner for Boys Don’t Cry and Million Dollar Baby), Michael Shannon, Blythe Danner, Robert Forster, Taissa Farmiga, and Josh Lucas.
Early reviews have been positive and it stands at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, critical reaction likely isn’t strong enough to make this a player in Best Picture. What They Had could struggle generally to get noticed at all. Its best chances aren’t with Swank or Shannon, but with Danner and Forster. For them to get noticed, the picture will need to at least break through with audiences to a certain degree. That could be a tall order in the midst of more high-profile contenders.
Bottom line: while this is generating solid reviews, Had is a long shot for Academy attention. My Oscar watch posts will continue…
Back at ya with my weekly Oscar predictions! Here’s some tidbits that have transpired over the past seven days:
While the official review embargo has not lifted, Bohemian Rhapsody has screened and early word-of-mouth is out. Reaction for this film itself seems mixed and it has caused the Freddie Mercury biopic to drop to 25th in my BP rankings and out of my Original Screenplay possibilities. On the other hand, chatter about Rami Malek’s performance is terrific. For the first time, he enters my top 5 predicted Actor nominees, knocking out Willem Dafoe’s work in At Eternity’s Gate. One thing seems certain: the lead actor race is looking very crowded at the moment.
Speaking of that category, it was confirmed that Stephan James from If Beale Street Could Talk will be campaigned for in that category (I’ve had him listed in Supporting previously).
In Best Actress, I have switched Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) back to #1 over runner-up Glenn Close in The Wife. This appears to be a close contest between the two at the moment.
There is still uncertainty about category placement for the three women of The Favourite. Some chatter has Emma Stone as the obvious Actress candidate along with Olivia Colman. Everyone seems to agree that Rachel Weisz will land in Supporting Actress. For now, I’m keeping Colman in Actress with Stone/Weisz in Supporting, but changes could happen.
Also in Supporting Actress, I am now listing Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) at #1 over Claire Foy (First Man).
Widows is just on the outside of my predicted nominees in a number of races including Picture, Actress (Viola Davis), and Supporting Actor (Daniel Kaluuya). I feel it will get nominated for something and I am including it in Adapted Screenplay over First Man.
And with that, let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Green Book (PR: 5)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Widows (PR: 11)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. The Mule (PR: 15)
13. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 16)
14. Boy Erased (PR: 12)
15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)
16. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
17. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 17)
18. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 19)
19. Leave No Trace (PR: 23)
20. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 20)
21. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 21)
22. Eighth Grade (PR: 25)
23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 22)
24. The Front Runner (PR: 24)
25. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 18)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)
11. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
12. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 13)
13. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
14. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 12)
15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 15)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)
3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 5)
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 4)
5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 11)
10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)
11. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
12. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)
13. Stephan James, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
14. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 13)
15. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)
8. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 11)
10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 10)
11. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
13. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 14)
14. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 15)
15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 12)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)
2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 2)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 13)
11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 12)
13. Tim Blake Nelson, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Brian Tyree Henry, IfBealeStreetCouldTalk (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie
Jason Clarke, First Man
David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots
Best Supporting Actress
1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
The Happy Prince hits stateside screens in limited fashion this Wednesday. Having originally premiered at Sundance earlier this year, this is a biopic of Irish playwright Oscar Wilde and it’s a passion project for director/writer/star Rupert Everett. American audiences may still remember him best as the BFF to Julia Roberts in 1997’s My Best Friend’s Wedding, as well as roles in An Ideal Husband and Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children.
In addition to Everett playing Wilde, the supporting cast includes Colin Firth, Emily Watson, and Tom Wilkinson. Reviews have been mostly kind and its Rotten Tomatoes score is currently at a decent 72%. That’s probably not enough, however, for Prince to be an awards player in any category and it has yet to pop up on the radar screen in any significant way.
Bottom line: don’t expect Prince to find its way into contention. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
My first Oscar predictions of October are here as the new month has brought in some important scheduling announcements!
First, it has been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s The Mule will indeed be released in 2018. While some reports suggest it’s more of a commercial play for Warner Bros than an awards one… its release means I’m including it for the first time in a number of categories as a possibility (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay). You just can’t discount Eastwood from the awards derby.
We also learned that Mike Leigh’s Peterloo and the sci-fi tale Alita: Battle Angel have been moved to 2019. While neither of them were considered players in the major categories, both could have been contenders in down the line tech races. Not anymore.
In other developments:
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) has been ranked #1 since late August in Supporting Actor, but that now changes to Mahershala Ali in Green Book.
The first trailer for Vice is out. It maintains its spot at #9 on my Best Picture possibilities, but I’ve now moved Sam Rockwell into the five predicted nominees for Supporting Actor. I’m also vaulting Christian Bale from the 5 spot in Best Actor to second.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. The Favourite (PR: 5)
5. Green Book (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Widows (PR: 11)
12. Boy Erased (PR: 12)
13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)
14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 13)
15. The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)
16. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
17. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 19)
18. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 16)
19. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 20)
20. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 18)
21. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 17)
22. Beautiful Boy (PR: 23)
23. Leave No Trace (PR: 21)
24. The Front Runner (PR: 24)
25. Eighth Grade (PR: 22)
Dropped Out:
Stan and Ollie
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
3. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 2)
4. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 11)
12. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)
13. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 14)
15. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 5)
3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 2)
5. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 7)
8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 8)
10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 10)
11. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 9)
12. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: 11)
13. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 13)
14. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 14)
15. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 12)
Dropped Out:
Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 8)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 9)
10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 11)
11. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)
12. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 15)
13. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: 14)
15. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 13)
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)
2. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 4)
4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)
5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 5)
7. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)
8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 14)
10. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 11)
11. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: 10)
12. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)
13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 12)
14. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 13)
15. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
This Friday on Netflix, Private Life debuts. The comedic drama marks the first directorial effort from Tamara Jenkins in over a decade since her acclaimed The Savages in 2007. Paul Giamatti and Kathryn Hahn star as a couple dealing with infertility. Costars include Kayli Carter, Molly Shannon, Denis O’Hare, and John Carroll Lynch.
Life premiered at Sundance way back in January and warm reviews followed. It currently stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t expect this to be a player in Best Picture or any of the acting races. However, it stands at least a shot at Best Original Screenplay. It could, however, be a long shot.
That category currently has three near sure things (The Favourite, Roma, Green Book), an unseen possibility on the horizon (Vice), and other contenders like Eighth Grade and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. In its favor is that Jenkins was recognized here before for The Savages.
Bottom line: the only chance at a nod for Private Life is Original Screenplay. It’s unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.
A bit of an awards season surprise turned up today when Warner Bros announced that Clint Eastwood’s TheMule will be out on December 14. The film casts Eastwood in the true story of a World War II vet who becomes a courier for Mexican drug cartels at age 80.
TheMule marks Eastwood’s first turn in front of the camera since 2012’s TroublewiththeCurve. It’s the first time he’s directed himself since 2008’s hit GranTorino. While it’s been a little while since he’s acted, he has been churning out directorial efforts every year. It’s no accident that every time he does, Oscar chatter follows.
Over the past quarter century plus, Eastwood has seen a number of his pictures win and be nominated. In 1992, Unforgiven won Best Picture and Director. Twelve years later, MillionDollarBaby was a surprise late addition to the awards season calendar (as this is). It also won Picture and Director. Additionally, MysticRiver, LettersfromIwoJima, and AmericanSniper all received nods in the big race.
Just last year, The15:17toParis was assumed to be another possibility for inclusion for consideration. It ended up coming out in February of this year and was a commercial and critical failure. Paris is nowhere on the radar screen for Academy chatter this year.
Will TheMule be a different story? Another MillionDollarBaby that alters the Oscar race? While we’ll have to wait for buzz and reviews (there’s not even a trailer yet), some signs point to no.
There’s already rumors that Warner Bros is looking at this as more of a commercial venture than one they will focus on for awards campaigning. The studio already has a very serious contender on its docket with AStarIsBorn. Speaking of, Eastwood’s costars here include Bradley Cooper (director and star of Born) as well as Dianne Wiest, Michael Pena, Laurence Fishburne, Taissa Farmiga, and Alison Eastwood.
Even if Warner doesn’t see this as their largest Academy player, we will see if critics and audiences feel differently. One thing is for sure – we have another movie to keep an eye on in 2018.
As my weekly Oscar predictions roll along, I finally had a week not loaded with festival news and screenings. As you can see, placements in the major categories don’t have quite as much volatility this week.
That said, there was news. Of the few contenders that haven’t screened, it was announced that On the Basis of Sex will open this year’s AFI Fest in November and that Mary Queen of Scots will close it. Their inclusion in the fest bumps their stock up a bit in my rankings this time around. Of course, it won’t be until they screen that we know the real story.
In other developments related to my rankings:
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) overtakes Viola Davis (Widows) for the five-spot in Best Actress.
Additionally in Best Actress, Glenn Close (The Wife) now holds the #1 predicted slot over Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born).
In Best Adapted Screenplay, the five predicted pictures remain the same. However, BlackKlansman and If Beale Street Could Talk now hold the 1-2 spots over A Star Is Born and First Man.
Ben Foster (Leave No Trace) will apparently be campaigned for in lead Actor and not Supporting so that change has been reflected in my estimates.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Roma (PR: 2)
3. First Man (PR: 3)
4. Green Book (PR: 5)
5. The Favourite (PR: 4)
6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
8. Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Vice (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Widows (PR: 12)
12. Boy Erased (PR: 11)
13. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 18)
14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 14)
16. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 17)
17. The Sisters Brothers (PR: 15)
18. At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 19)
19. On the Basis of Sex (PR: 23)
20. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 21)
21. Leave No Trace (PR: 25)
22. Eighth Grade (PR: 24)
23. Beautiful Boy (PR: 20)
24. The Front Runner (PR: 16)
25. Stan and Ollie (PR: 22)
Best Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)
2. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 3)
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)
7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)
9. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)
10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 10)
11. Steve McQueen, Widows (PR: 12)
12. Jacques Audiard, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 11)
13. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (PR: 14)
14. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 13)
15. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 15)
Best Actor
1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 2)
3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 3)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)
5. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)
7. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 6)
8. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
9. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (PR: 7)
10. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 11)
11. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
12. John C. Reilly, The Sisters Brothers (PR: 13)
13. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 12)
14. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (PR: 9)
15. Chadwick Boseman, Black Panther (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
Best Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)
2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)
3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 5)
7. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 10)
8. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 11)
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)
10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)
11. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)
12. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 13)
13. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Wildlife (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Keira Knightley, Colette (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Best Supporting Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 2)
3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)
4. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 9)
8. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 8)
9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 6)
10. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (PR: 11)
11. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (PR: 10)
12. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (PR: 12)
13. Jason Clarke, First Man (PR: 14)
14. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (moved to Lead Actor)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 1)
2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)
5. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)
7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)
8. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)
9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)
10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)
11. Marina de Tavira, Roma (PR: 11)
12. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows (PR: 10)
13. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 14)
14. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (PR: Not Ranked)
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 