The National Society of Film Critics (consisting of film reviewers in New York and Los Angeles) bestowed their honors on the day before the Golden Globes. They clearly loved Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite as it won Best Film, Director, and Screenplay. This comes one year after the NSFC surprised everyone by picking Chloe Zhao’s The Rider for their top prize. It was never considered a real contender at the Oscars. That is decidedly not the case with Parasite. Worth noting is that only two winners here over the decade (Spotlight, Moonlight) ended up taking Best Picture from the Academy.
In the acting races, there was only one surprise with Mary Kay Place winning Best Actress for Diane. I currently have her ranked #10 on my Academy chart. However, the last 7 winners here went on to nab Oscar nods. She may creep up a bit when I do my Oscar estimates on Monday, but it’s highly doubtful she’ll place in the top 5.
As for the ultra competitive Best Actor derby, Antonio Banderas took it for Pain and Glory. Along with anyone not named Adam Driver or Joaquin Phoenix, he’s among the eight thespians vying for Academy spots 3-5.
The supporting races went to two front runners. Brad Pitt got Supporting Actor for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood while Laura Dern won in Supporting Actress for both Marriage Story and Little Women. She’s widely considered a threat to win the Oscar in the former.
Bottom line: it was a very good day for Parasite while Mary Kay Place’s victory could boost her visibility a bit.
There are two weeks to go before Oscar nominations come out and it’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions. There’s not much in the way of major movement in the top races, but the numbers have shifted in some cases. Let’s break it down:
In Picture, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood vaults to #1 in what looks like a three-way competition between it, The Irishman, and Parasite.
Bong-Joon Ho rises to first in Director over Tarantino and Scorsese.
There is a change in Actor as Jonathan Pryce is back in over Antonio Banderas. Pain and Glory takes another hit in Original Screenplay as I’ve taken it out and put Knives Out back in.
Check in later this week for my predictions on winners for the Golden Globes, which airs this Sunday. The plan is to have Oscar predictions next Monday and then a post up on Saturday (January 11) with final predictions on the races.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 11)
12. The Farewell (PR: 12)
13. Pain and Glory (PR: 13)
14. Knives Out (PR: 13)
15. Uncut Gems (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
9. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 8)
10. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 5)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 4)
7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 10)
9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 8)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 9)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 7)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 6)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (PR: Not Rankled)
10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 7)
7. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 6)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 8)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 9)
10. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
7. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
8. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 4)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
7. Hustlers (PR: 7)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 8)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. 1917 (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Bombshell (PR: 7)
10. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Uncut Gems
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 4)
5. The Painted Bird (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Corpus Christi (PR: 7)
7. Beanpole (PR: 5)
8. Honeyland (PR: 8)
9. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 8)
7. Abominable (PR: 6)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 7)
9. Funan (PR: 10)
10. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. For Sama (PR: 4)
4. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
5. Honeyland (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
8. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
9. Midnight Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knock Down the House (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maiden
Aquarela
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Joker (PR: 3)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
7. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 7)
9. Marriage Story (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Little Women (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judy (PR: 7)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
5. Parasite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. 1917 (PR: 4)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Apollo 11 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Knives Out
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 3)
3. Judy (PR: 2)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
5. Rocketman (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
7. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: 10)
8. Little Women (PR: 7)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 4)
10. 1917 (PR: 9)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Joker (PR: 5)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
7. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 9)
10. Pain and Glory (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Us
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
4. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 5)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 6)
7. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: 9)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 8)
9. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 10)
10. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Parasite (PR: 6)
5. 1917 (PR: 2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
5. Rocketman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
7. Joker (PR: 4)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 9)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 10)
8. Joker (PR: 6)
9. The Irishman (PR: 8)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Lion King (PR: 4)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
4. The Irishman (PR: 1)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 6)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
8. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: 10)
9. Captain Marvel (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
And that equates to these films getting the following numbers of nods:
11 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
10 Nominations
The Irishman
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women, Parasite
6 Nominations
Joker
5 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Rocketman
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes
2 Nominations
Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Knives Out, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Painted Bird, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
Yes, readers, the words Oscar and Cats are in the same post title, so get on board! Truthfully, this shouldn’t be surprising at all. The adaptation of the long-running Broadway musical comes from director Tom Hooper. His last three films (The King’s Speech, Les Miserables, The Danish Girl) garnered a total of 24 nominations and 8 wins, including Speech nabbing Best Picture. Each one of them gave us one acting winner – Colin Firth in Speech, Anne Hathaway in Miserables, and Alicia Vikander for Danish.
So to say Cats had potential awards pedigree is not an understatement. Had being the objective term. One day before its release, the review embargo is up. Note to everyone: Oscar contenders don’t lapse their embargo 24 hours before release.
This has proven accurate as the Rotten Tomatoes score for Cats is currently… 19%. Some reviews are of a mixed nature while others are deeming it an unmitigated disaster. Weeks ago, the prospect of a Jennifer Hudson nod in Supporting Actress seemed at least feasible. There will be no second nomination for the Dreamgirls winner.
That said, Cats is definitely contending in one race. Earlier this week, the Academy released their shortlist for Visual Effects nominees. Ten pictures were named and this is one of them. This seems potentially amusing as a number of reviews say the visual look is ugly and garish. I don’t expect this to make the final five and I foresee chatter as to how this got on the shortlist over material like Ad Astra and Spider-Man: Far From Home. Could this show up in other races like Production Design or Makeup and Hairstyling? That seems like a reach.
The one category where Cats did seem like a genuine player was Best Original Song via “Beautiful Ghosts”. That track is sung by costar Taylor Swift and it seemed like a good excuse for the Academy to get her on the stage. Surprisingly, “Ghosts” was excluded from the 15 finalists that were also named this week.
I’ve ended dozens and dozens of these Oscar Watch posts with “My Oscar Watch posts will continue…”. Indeed they will. However, this appears to be the final one of 2019. Have no fear as the Sundance Film Festival is around the corner in January and there’s always Oscar bait at that event. Therefore, my Oscar Watch posts will continue… in 2020. And in the meantime, my predictions for this year’s Academy nominees will continue as well.
One day before its galactic release, the review embargo for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker has expired and the news is not so great. The ninth chapter of the ginormous franchise sits at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes. For all the talk about the mixed reaction to predecessor The Last Jedi in 2017, its RT score was 91%. Even last year’s mostly disregarded spin-off Solo: A Star Wars Story managed 70%.
So… what does that mean for Oscar attention? Well, any remote possibility of Skywalker playing in top line categories like Picture is gone. Yet possibilities for tech nods remain intact. When counting the eight official episodes and spin-offs Rogue One and Solo, the series as a whole has gathered 34 total nominations and won seven. Six of them went to the 1977 original with another for 1980’s sequel The Empire Strikes Back. That’s right… it’s been almost 40 years since a Star Wars pic has nabbed a competitive gold statue. And I don’t expect that streak to end here.
In this currently trilogy, 2015’s The Force Awakens received five nominations: Score for the legendary John Williams, Visual Effects, Editing, and both Sound categories. The Last Jedi got the same nods minus Editing. I anticipate Skywalker will probably be recognized for the same four as Jedi and win none. Interestingly, there’s a solid chance it loses three of them (Score and the Sounds) to 1917. As for Visual Effects, that could go to The Irishman or another epic Disney franchise finale Avengers: Endgame.
In December of last year, the non Disney/Pixar animated hit Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse swooped in at the last minute to critical acclaim and took away Best Animated Feature from frontrunner Incredibles 2.
So it’s at least worth keeping an eye on Spies in Disguise, the comedic kiddie flick from Blue Sky Studios. Could another last minute entry pop up and steal the thunder from another Pixar sequel, Toy Story 4?
Short answer: nope. While the Will Smith and Tom Holland voice led pic has garnered some decent reviews (79% on Rotten Tomatoes), I don’t even feel it’s enough to compete with other likely nominees including Frozen II, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, and Missing Link. For that matter, I’d rank it behind potential contenders that I’m not projecting for the final five like Abominable and Klaus.
This marks Blue Sky’s 13th full-length feature. Only two (2002’s Ice Age and 2017’s Ferdinand) have gotten the attention of Academy voters. Don’t expect this to be the third. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s been another action packed week on the Oscar predicting front! Since last Monday, the SAG Award nominations came out and today – we saw numerous categories reveal their shortlists. This is when races are whittled down to 10 or 15 possible nominees and it applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score and Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects. As always, there were surprises. These include “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats unlisted from Song, The Irishman absent from Makeup and Hairstyling, and Ad Astra and The Aeronauts left out for Visual Effects. You’ll notice that in these categories – there’s more dropouts than normal and that’s why.
As for the top line races, we have changes:
I am finally estimating that nine movies will be nominated for Best Picture instead of ten and that puts The Two Popes on the outside looking in.
The bad news for Popes continues as it’s Leonardo Dicaprio in and Jonathan Pryce out. I still have Robert De Niro clinging to the five spot, despite missing the Globes and SAG. We shall see if he remains in the fold as time goes on.
In Actress, it’s Cynthia Erivo in and Awkwafina out. I’ve got Lupita Nyong’o in the sixth position after a strong week of precursor love. She’s knocking right on the door.
Scarlett Johansson is back in for Supporting Actress to the detriment of Annette Bening. Like the SAG Awards, that means I’m projecting a double nomination for ScarJo. That would mark her first and second nominations.
In Original Screenplay, I’ve got Pain and Glory back in over Knives Out.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 5)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 8)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
9. Little Women (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
10. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
11. Bombshell (PR: 15)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. Knives Out (PR: 12)
14. Uncut Gems (PR: 13)
15. Rocketman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Richard Jewell
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 8)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 9)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 3)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
8. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 10)
10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 6)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 7)
7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 8)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 9)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 10)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 3)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 8)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
9. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 6)
7. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 5)
8. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 7)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: 9)
10. Jo Yeo-Jeong, Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Taylor Russell, Waves
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 7)
7. Hustlers (PR: 6)
8. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
9. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Knives Out (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. 1917 (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Uncut Gems (PR: 7)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Atlantics (PR: 6)
5. Beanpole (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Those Who Remained (PR: 10)
7. Corpus Christi (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Honeyland (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Painted Bird (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Truth and Justice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Monos
Invisible Life
A White, White Day
And Then We Danced
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Abominable (PR: 7)
7. Weathering with You (PR: 8)
8. Klaus (PR: 6)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 2)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 3)
4. For Sama (PR: 4)
5. Honeyland (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 9)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 8)
9. Maiden (PR: 10)
10. Aquarela (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sea of Shadows
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 3)
4. The Irishman (PR: 4)
5. Parasite (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
7. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: 6)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Two Popes
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Cats (PR: 10)
10. The Aeronauts (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Parasite (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
9. Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
The Two Popes
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 1)
2. Judy (PR: 3)
3. Joker (PR: 6)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
7. Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. 1917 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Us (PR: 8)
8. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Motherless Brooklyn (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Waves
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 4)
4. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 5)
5. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 10)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 7)
8. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
9. “A Glass of Soju” from Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 4)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 8)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Irishman (PR: 9)
9. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
10. John Wick – Chapter 3: Parabellum (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 10)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
4. The Lion King (PR: 3)
5. 1917 (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
7. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
8. Captain Marvel (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Terminator: Dark Fate (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Aeronauts
Ad Astra
Aladdin
And that equates to the following pictures nabbing these numbers for nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
Joker
7 Nominations
Little Women, Marriage Story
6 Nominations
Parasite
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
3 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Pain and Glory, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Dolemite Is My Name, Downton Abbey, Frozen II, Harriet, Judy, The Lion King, The Two Popes
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, American Factory, Apollo 11, Atlantics, Beanpole, The Farewell, For Sama, Honeyland, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Missing Link, One Child Nation, Toy Story 4, Wild Rose
It’s been two weeks since I’ve prognosticated Oscar picks on the blog and a lot has happened since then. The precursors are coming out in full force with the Golden Globe nominations out this morning and numerous critics bestowing their awards or nods.
The Globes potentially provided a needed boost to The Two Popes and displayed a better than anticipated showing for Joker.
So how have my estimates changed in the last 14 days? There’s been one change in all major categories with the exception of Director and Adapted Screenplay. They are:
In Best Picture, I’ve put Ford v Ferrari back in and taken out Bombshell. The official review embargo for Bombshell lapsed and the current Rotten Tomatoes score is 60%. It could still sneak in, but with that rating and a lack of precursor love, it’s certainly fallen.
My ongoing struggle with picking Best Actor candidates continues. Whittling it down to five is a challenge and that’s an understatement. As has been discussed previously, I truly believe all 10 listed performers could get in. For that matter, so could Paul Walter Hauser for Richard Jewell if that film does better with Academy voters than expected. This is the first time I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in with Antonio Banderas (recipient of some precursors) getting in. Look for this saga to continue until nominations morning.
In Best Actress, I’ve got Awkwafina in over Cynthia Erivo. This is basically a coin flip for the five spot and there’s also Lupita Nyong’o (another precursor favorite) as a spoiler.
Joe Pesci has done quite well in the precursors. He’s in over Willem Dafoe for Supporting Actor.
Annette Bening is back in the fold over Zhao Shuzhen in Supporting Actress.
I’m putting Knives Out in Original Screenplay and that takes out Pain and Glory.
You can read the rest of the happenings below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
7. Little Women (PR: 7)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 11)
10. The Two Popes (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Farewell (PR: 12)
12. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Richard Jewell (PR: 13)
15. Bombshell (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Rocketman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 3)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: 6)
7. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: 9)
8. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: 7)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
10. Ben and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Fernando Meirelles, The Two Popes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
4. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 4)
7. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (PR: 10)
8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 7)
9. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 2)
3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 5)
7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
8. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 7)
9. Mary Kay Place, Diane (PR: 10)
10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell (PR: 9)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 6)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 5)
5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy (PR: 7)
8. Song Kang-Ho, Parasite (PR: 9)
9. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wesley Snipes, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sterling K. Brown, Waves
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
4. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 5)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (PR: 4)
7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
8. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Taylor Russell, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Joker (PR: 5)
5. Little Women (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hustlers (PR: 7)
7. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 6)
8. Richard Jewell (PR: 8)
9. Just Mercy (PR: 9)
10. Dark Waters (PR: 10)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Marriage Story (PR: 2)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Knives Out (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 5)
7. Uncut Gems (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Bombshell (PR: 6)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Honey Boy
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 3)
4. Monos (PR: 4)
5. Invisible Life (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 7)
7. A White, White Day (PR: 10)
8. Beanpole (PR: 8)
9. And Then We Danced (PR: 5)
10. Those Who Remained (PR: 9)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. I Lost My Body (PR: 4)
5. Missing Link (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Klaus (PR: 6)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
9. Bunuel in the Labyrinth of the Turtles (PR: 9)
10. Funan (PR: 10)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 1)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 4)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 2)
4. For Sama (PR: 5)
5. Sea of Shadows (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Cave (PR: 6)
7. Honeyland (PR: 8)
8. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 7)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maiden (PR: 3)
Dropped Out:
The Kingmaker
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Joker (PR: 5)
4. The Irishman (PR: 3)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Parasite (PR: 6)
8. The Two Popes (PR: Not Ranked)
9. A Hidden Life (PR: 7)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 8)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Little Women (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 4)
5. Downton Abbey (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Irishman (PR: 6)
8. Aladdin (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
10. Cats (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Judy
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
4. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
5. Marriage Story (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 5)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 10)
10. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Bombshell
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bomshell (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Judy (PR: 3)
4. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 7)
7. Us (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 8)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. 1917 (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 7)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cats
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Little Women (PR: 2)
5. Joker (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 8)
8. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Waves (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
A Hidden Life
Ad Astra
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: 4)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 7)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “I’m Standing with You” from Breakthrough (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Glasgow” from Wild Rose (PR: 9)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
“Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
Best Sound Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 6)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. Joker (PR: 8)
9. The Irishman (PR: 7)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
Best Sound Mixing
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1)
2. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
3. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
4. Rocketman (PR: 5)
5. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 4)
7. Cats (PR: 8)
8. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
9. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. The Irishman (PR: 9)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. The Lion King (PR: 4)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
5. The Aeronauts (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. 1917 (PR: 7)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
8. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 8)
9. Gemini Man (PR: 9)
10. Aladdin (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Irishman
9 Nominations
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
6 Nominations
Joker
4 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Bombshell, Jojo Rabbit, Rocketman
2 Nominations
Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, The Farewell, Frozen II, Judy, The Lion King, Pain and Glory
1 Nomination
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, The Aeronauts, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, Downton Abbey, For Sama, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Invisible Life, Knives Out, Les Miserables, The Lighthouse, Missing Link, Monos, One Child Nation, The Report, Sea of Shadows, Toy Story 4
You might think the Los Angeles Film Critics Association would bestow some love to Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in a neighborly gesture. However, you would be incorrect as this West Coast branch went with a decidedly foreign flavor for several of today’s selections.
The Association clearly were huge fans of Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite, which took home Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor (Song Kang-Ho). The L.A. Critics also name runners up. In each of these races, it was The Irishman, its maker Martin Scorsese, and Joe Pesci placing second.
In Best Actor, Antonio Banderas picked up another precursor for Best Actor with Adam Driver (Marriage Story) coming in behind.
There was an outside the box pick for Actress with Mary Kay Place winning for Diane and Lupita Nyong’o in Us as runner-up. This branch isn’t shy about naming unexpected recipients for lead female performers. Two recent examples are Kim Hye-Ja for 2010’s Mother and Yoon Jeong-hee for 2011’s Poetry.
Jennifer Lopez scored a victory here in Supporting Actress for Hustlers, followed by Zhao Shuzhen in The Farewell.
Finally, in Screenplay (they don’t differentiate between adapted and original), it was Noah Baumbach’s script for Marriage Story taking honors over Parasite.
This was clearly a big day for Parasite in Southern California and my precursor posts will continue tomorrow with the Golden Globe announcements and updated Oscar predictions!
One day ahead of the more highly publicized Golden Globe nominations, this Sunday saw the unveiling of the nods for the Critics Choice Movie Awards. And in looking over their selections in recent history, they serve as quite a harbinger for the choices that Oscar voters might make.
After a strong showing in early precursors, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman led the way with 14 nominations. This is followed by 12 nods for Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 9 for Greta Gerwig’s Little Women, 8 for 1917 from Sam Mendes and Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, and 7 for Taika Waititi’s Jojo Rabbit, Joker from Todd Phillips and Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite.
This particular branch of voters utilizes an unpredictable scale for numbers of nominees in each category. For Best Picture, it’s always ten. Yet it fluctuates when it comes to director, the acting and screenplay races, and so forth.
Today I’ll break down the major categories and discuss each one and what it could mean come Oscar time. The ceremony airs on the CW this January 12th.
Best Picture
Nominees: 1917, Ford v Ferrari, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Uncut Gems
Reaction here is that the precursor love continues for Uncut Gems from Ben and Josh Safdie. This is probably the least expected feature to make the cut and the Adam Sandler led crime drama appears to be peaking at the right time. While this certainly doesn’t guarantee an Oscar nod, it’s now undoubtedly part of the conversation.
Some notable titles to miss the list: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Bombshell, The Farewell, Richard Jewell, and The Two Popes. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if the Globes finds room for Popes as part of its nominations, as it seems to be fading fast. It doesn’t help that Netflix could be primarily concerned with Irishman and Marriage Story.
Over the last five years, there’s been four of them when eight of the Critics Choice list nabbed Best Picture attention at the Oscars. In 2017, it was nine of them. In other words, pay attention to this list.
Best Director
Nominees: Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story), Greta Gerwig (Little Women), Bong Joon-Ho (Parasite), Sam Mendes (1917), Ben and Josh Safdie (Uncut Gems), Martin Scorsese (The Irishman), Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
And another notch in the Uncut Gems arsenal. Most recent years have seen six nominees, but there’s seven nominees in 2019. In 2016, five of the Choice directors made up the Oscar list. In 2014 and 2015, it was three and for the past two years it’s been four.
Looking over this list, it’s very feasible that there’s a five match. Who could sneak in that’s not on here? One name that comes to mind is James Mangold for Ford v Ferrari.
Best Actor
Nominees: Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory), Robert De Niro (The Irishman), Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Adam Driver (Marriage Story), Eddie Murphy (Dolemite Is My Name), Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Adam Sandler (Uncut Gems)
In a category that typically has six nominees, it should be no shocker that there’s seven this time around as Best Actor is packed. From 2015-2018, we have seen 5 nominees for two of the years (2015, 2018) make the Academy derby and two with 4 (2016, 2017). 2014 was a bit of an outlier with three.
As has been discussed on this blog, I believe there are 11 legitimate performers vying for 5 slots at the Oscars. The four that didn’t make the cut here are Christian Bale (Ford v Ferrari), Taron Egerton (Rocketman), Paul Walter Hauser (Richard Jewell), and Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes). Here’s yet another example of Popes falling short.
Today’s announcements, in particular, could serve as a boost for Murphy and Sandler.
There’s a serious correlation between these nominees and Oscar. In four of the past five years, we’ve seen five of the women getting Academy love. In 2016, it was four. That seems destined to repeat itself here as the only potential outlier in my mind is Alfre Woodard in Clemency. I would bank on five of these seven nominees being the Oscar list.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse), Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood), Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes), Al Pacino (The Irishman), Joe Pesci (The Irishman), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
These nominees are further proof of an Irishman double nod for Pacino and Pesci coming our way. We’ve seen five for five matchups in two of the past five years with this race. This also makes me think Hopkins has a much better chance for Popes attention than his lead costar Pryce.
If there’s one name not here that could factor into the Oscar mix – Shia LaBeouf in Honey Boy. All in all, no big surprises here.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Laura Dern (Marriage Story), Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit), Jennifer Lopez (Hustlers), Florence Pugh (Little Women), Margot Robbie (Bombshell), Zhao Shuzhen (The Farewell)
This is indeed what I’d call the top 6 for Oscar viability. However, I wouldn’t sleep on Kathy Bates for Richard Jewell (a film these voters totally ignored). In the past half decade, we’ve never seen less than four of the nominees here getting Academy nods.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Farewell, Knives Out, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
The noticeable item here is the inclusion of Knives Out. All the rest were basically foregone conclusions. It gets in instead of Bombshell, 1917, Pain and Glory, or Ford v Ferrari. Could Oscar follow suit? Definitely possible as the last two years have seen 5 for 5 matches.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes
We haven’t seen a total match with the Academy from 2014 to present. I suspect that will change this time around as I believe 5 of these 6 contenders will make the Oscar cut. What gets left out? Beautiful Day, Joker, and Popes are the likely contenders.
My precursor posts will roll along in rapid succession as my take on the Los Angeles critics is up next…
The AFI Film Awards came out with their 2019 honors today and they do things a little differently. This particular group names their favorite 10 pictures of the year without naming a winner. And their top films are the only category they bother with.
Today those ten movies were as follows: 1917, The Farewell, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Knives Out, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Richard Jewell.
So what’s to learn when it comes to Oscar pontificating? Let’s start with comparing this list to yesterday’s announcement of the National Board of Review’s 10 honored titles… eleven actually because their winner was The Irishman. The NBR’s different titles were Dolemite Is My Name, Ford v Ferrari, Uncut Gems, and Waves. Not on NBR’s list from AFI: The Farewell and Little Women.
Shared AFI/NBR pics: The Irishman, 1917, Jojo Rabbit, Knives Out, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and Richard Jewell. If you think getting Picture mentions in both guarantees Oscar love, 2018 proved otherwise. Five films did just that last year and didn’t land Best Pictures nods: Eighth Grade, First Reformed, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns, and A Quiet Place.
Confused? Welcome to the world of awards speculation. As I see it currently, there are only two shared 2019 AFI/NBR features that could miss out on the big race: Knives Out and Richard Jewell. I’ll also take this opportunity to note that Parasite (which is looking decent for Best Pic attention) is ineligible for AFI since it’s a foreign film.
As for Best Pic hopefuls that landed no love from these groups, we have A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (I believe its chances are fading quickly) and Bombshell (not as convinced that it cannot rebound). It could get the 2018 Vice slot, which was ignored by AFI/NBR. There’s also Rocketman, which can hang on to the thought that it could be this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody.
When you look at the AFI list’s history over the past half decade, it is a fairly reliable barometer on certain directions the Academy will take. Last year, five out of the eventual eight nominees were on their list and that’s the lowest percentage. In 2016 and 2017, it was 7 for 9. In 2014 and 2015, it was 6 for 8. So you can pretty much bank on at least half of AFI’s list and probably a bit more landing Oscar nominations.
I’ll leave you with this: while Knives Out is certainly one of the most obvious candidates for something that could miss a Picture nod, I like its chances better than I ever have before. This could be a case of perfect timing as it just opened, had a much bigger debut than expected, and audiences and critics are singing its praises. I wouldn’t count it out. In fact, I suspect when I update my estimates on Monday – it will rank higher than ever before and enter my top 15 possibilities. That will knock a candidate out and Mister Rogers could be the unfortunate victim.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 