STX Entertainment is hoping an older female audience will turn out next weekend to cheer on Poms. The comedy is headlined by Diane Keaton as a recent retirement community resident who starts a cheerleading squad. Costars include Jacki Weaver, Pam Grier, Rhea Perlman, Celia Watson, Alisha Boe, and Bruce McGill. Zara Hayes directs.
The film is hopeful to become a counter programming option amidst lots of expensive summer blockbusters. However, competition for a female audience is there as TheHustle opens against it and LongShot will be in its second weekend. By skewing a bit older with its target audience, Poms is looking to tap into BookClub money.
That movie opened last May to $13.5 million on roughly the same number of screens that this is. It legged out nicely to $68 million. I don’t have Poms jumping that high and I’m forecasting high single digits to low double digits as it hopes for small drops in the weekends ahead.
Poms opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
For my PokemonDetectivePikachu prediction, click here:
A remake of a remake, MGM is hoping moviegoers want to do TheHustle next weekend. The pic updates the Steve Martin/Michael Caine comedy DirtyRottenScoundrels, which itself was a reworking of the 1964 Marlon Brando/David Niven effort BedtimeStory. Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson are the newest pair of con artists. The supporting cast includes Alex Sharp, Tim Blake Nelson, and Dean Norris. Chris Addison directs.
Hathaway hasn’t headlined a high-profile laugher since 2015’s TheIntern, which made $17 million for its start. Wilson, on the other hand, starred in Isn’tItRomantic earlier this year and that debuted at $14.2 million. I like that comp better and I’ll throw in another: 2015’s HotPursuit with Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It opened in mid May as well with $13.9 million.
That sounds about right here with a so-so low teens take.
TheHustle opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million
For my PokemonDetectivePikachu prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (05/08): I am downgrading my estimate from $74.8 million to $64.8 million
Ryan Reynolds hangs up the Deadpool costume for a bit in order to lend his voice to another hoped for franchise when PokemonDetectivePikachu debuts next weekend. Based on a 2016 video game, the Pokémon series has been thriving for nearly a quarter century in various iterations on Nintendo and on the big screen. Rob Letterman, who was behind the camera on Gulliver’sTravels and Goosebumps, directs. A mix of live-action and animation, the supporting cast includes Justice Smith, Kathryn Newton, Suki Waterhouse, Ken Watanabe, and Bill Nighy.
Warner Bros is certainly hoping a slew of follow-up features are in the cards. A sequel has already been commissioned. With Reynolds in the lead and the popularity of the source material, the studio might find itself in luck. Estimates for the opening weekend gross are wide-ranging – everywhere from $50 million to over $100 million. If it falls on the lower end of that spectrum, it may not top the box office due to the third weekend of the record-breaking Avengers: Endgame.
In 1999, Pokemon: TheFirstMovie opened to $31 million and ended up with $85 million. Sequel Pokemon: TheMovie2000 couldn’t replicate that success with a $19 million start and $43 overall gross. By 2001, the series had run out of gas when Pokemon3: TheMovie opened to $8 million and petered out at $17 million.
Expectations are different this time around. I’ll say Pikachu (The Movie) has an opening in the middle of its huge range and that’s about $10-15 million under what the first movie accomplished overall 20 years ago.
PokemonDetectivePikachu opening weekend prediction: $64.8 million
As we all catch our breath from the astounding debut of Avengers: Endgame, the first weekend of May brings three new titles all vying for second place behind Tony Stark and company. They are the animated UglyDolls, Seth Rogen/Charlize Theron comedy LongShot, and homeownership thriller TheIntruder with a demented Dennis Quaid. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
All three films have legit chances at premiering in second. I’m skeptical about UglyDolls, even though the plush toys it’s based on are well-known. LongShot has reviews on its side, but could be more of a slow builder. That leaves TheIntruder and I do believe it could appeal to an older and African-American audience. Therefore I’ll say it becomes the silver medalist.
This brings us to the sophomore frame of Endgame. It broke basically every record there is over the weekend (more on that below). Predecessor InfinityWar dipped 55% last year. This might be a tad more front loaded, but probably not by much. I’ll give it a 57% slide. That means another record should be in store as my estimate puts it over the best all-time second weekend, which is StarWars: TheForceAwakens at $149 million.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:
1. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $153.6 million
2. TheIntruder
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
3. UglyDolls
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. LongShot
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
5. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
BoxOfficeResults (April26–28)
History was made this weekend as Avengers: Endgame rocketed past even the most lofty expectations and left record after record in its wake. The MCU epic took in an otherworldly $357.1 million, scorching my $289.6 million projection. That’s not only the biggest opening of all time… it’s $100 million more than previous holder Avengers: InfinityWar from last summer. The question as to whether it eventually surpasses the $936 million achieved by all-time domestic earner TheForceAwakens is real.
As if Endgame didn’t provide enough embarrassment of riches, CaptainMarvel climbed to second (thanks drive-ins) with $8.3 million (I said $8.7 million) for $413 million overall.
TheCurseofLaLlorona was third with $8 million compared to my higher $10 million forecast. The two-week tally is $41 million.
Breakthrough was fourth with $6.8 million (I said $6.3 million). Total is $26 million.
Shazam! rounded out the top five with $5.5 million. I was generous at $7.4 million. It’s at $131 million.
Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron headline the improbable rom com LongShot, out in theaters next weekend. It marks the latest collaboration between Rogen and director Jonathan Levine after 50/50 and TheNightBefore (Levine’s latest was 2017’s Snatched). The film casts Theron as the U.S. Secretary of State who strikes up a romance with Rogen’s journalist. Costars include O’Shea Jackson Jr., June Diane Raphael, Andy Serkis, Alexander Skarsgard, and Lisa Kudrow.
Shot premiered in March at the South by Southwest Festival to favorable reviews and it stands at 88% on Rotten Tomatoes. A comparison to TheNightBefore is tricky. That pic opened in November 2015 on the weekend before Thanksgiving and against the finale of TheHungerGames franchise. The result was just a $9.8 million start (it legged out well the following holiday weekend).
I believe LongShot will top that number, but perhaps with low teens as it hopes for minimal drops in subsequent frames. If so, this could fall behind the debut grosses of its competition – TheIntruder and UglyDolls.
LongShot opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million
STX Entertainment is hoping affinity for a popular plush toy brings youngsters out next weekend for UglyDolls. The animated musical comedy takes it characters from a line of squishy creatures launched in 2001. Kelly Asbury, who did Shrek2 and Gnomeo & Juliet, directs and Robert Rodriguez (of all people) has a story credit. The voice cast is mostly a mix of musicians and comedians and they include Kelly Clarkson, Nick Jonas, Janelle Monáe, Pitbull, Blake Shelton, Wanda Sykes, Gabriel Iglesias, Emma Roberts, Bebe Rexha, and Charli XCX.
While UglyDolls looks to pack movie houses, it could face resistance and absolutely faces serious competition. It arrives the week after Avengers: Endgame, which should still be minting money. Furthermore, this debuts the weekend before Pokemon: DetectivePikachu, which hopes to bring in a sizable family audience.
This could get lost in the shuffle and I suspect it might. The possibility certainly exists for a high teens to even $20 million start, but I suspect low to mid teens is where this ends up.
UglyDolls opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
Home is apparently where the homicidal maniacs are when TheIntruder debuts next weekend. The thriller casts Michael Ealy and Meagan Good are new homebuyers whose previous owner (Dennis Quaid) goes to deadly lengths to keep it. Deon Taylor, maker of MeettheBlacks and Traffik, directs.
The pic was originally slated for April 26, but set its date back a week when Avengers: Endgame snatched up that real estate. The Screen Gems release looks to serve as counter programming to the MCU behemoth’s sophomore weekend.
It could find some success in that regard, particularly with African-American audiences. Opening against the animated Uglydolls and comedy LongShot, this has a legit shot at having the healthiest debut in the low to mid teens.
TheIntruder opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
After the worst Easter weekend at the box office in a decade and a sub par 2019 overall, expect things to pick up considerably on Friday. In case you hadn’t heard, there’s a little something called Avengers: Endgame debuting and it appears poised to smash the all-time opening record. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The grand finale of this current MCU phase has been selling out theaters for weeks and anticipation for the multi billion dollar franchise epic is sky-high. In order to top the record holder, it will need to rise up over the $257 million earned one year ago by predecessor Avengers: InfinityWar.
I believe it will do that with more than $30 million to spare as it injects needed life into the movie business. As you can imagine, no other feature dared to premiere against Iron Man and his pals. TheCurseofLaLlorona should fall to second after a decent debut. CaptainMarvel could be the beneficiary of the rare drive-in effect as the MCU flick should be paired with Endgame in multiple venues. This helped BlackPanther last year when it dropped only 4% thanks to InfinityWar. DC’s superhero tale Shazam! should dip to fourth with Breakthrough rounding out the top five.
And with that, my projections for a potentially historic weekend:
1. Avengers: Endgame
Predicted Gross: $289.6 million
2. TheCurseofLaLlorona
Predicted Gross: $10 million
3. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
4. Shazam!
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
5. Breakthrough
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
BoxOfficeResults (April19–21)
As mentioned, the Easter frame was hardly hopping as many moviegoers decided to save their cash for Endgame. TheCurseofLaLlorona, as expected, posted the lowest start ever for a Conjuring Cinematic Universe title. However, its $26.3 million haul did scare up more than my $20.1 million projection.
Shazam! dropped to second after two weeks in first with $16.4 million, ahead of my $14 million forecast. The total is $120 million.
Faith based drama Breakthrough was no HeavenIsforReal in third with $11.2 million from to Friday to Sunday and $14.7 million since its Wednesday premiere. That’s quite a bit under my respective expectations of $16.9 million and $22 million.
CaptainMarvel had a remarkable increase from the previous weekend with $9.1 million for fourth place. That’s well above my $6 million estimate as the MCU behemoth reached $400 million domestically, right in time for her Endgame appearance.
Little rounded out the top five with $8.3 million (I said $7.8 million) for $29 million in two weeks.
Finally, the DisneyNature doc Penguins fell flat with just $2.2 million for 12th place and $3.2 million counting its Wednesday jumpstart. I was higher at $3.5 million and $5 million.
This current massively successful phase of the Marvel Cinematic Universe draws to a close next weekend with the release of Avengers: Endgame. There’s an excellent chance that it achieves the largest opening weekend gross of all time with the grand finale. Endgame follows up directly with last summer’s Avengers: Infinity War, which is the current record holder with $257 million.
Anthony and Joe Russo return in the directors chairs with a core group of familiar heroes battling Josh Brolin’s Thanos. They include Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man, Chris Evans as Captain America, Chris Hemsworth’s Thor, Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow, Brie Larson as Captain Marvel, Mark Ruffalo’s Hulk, Paul Rudd’s Ant-Man, and Jeremy Renner’s Hawkeye. That’s just scratching the surface, by the way. The events (spoiler alert if you’ve been in a year-long coma) of InfinityWar dissolved numerous other beloved characters into dust including Chadwick Boseman’s Black Panther, Tom Holland’s Spider-Man, Benedict Cumberbatch’s Doctor Strange and the majority of the Guardians of the Galaxy (Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista) save for Bradley Cooper voicing Rocket. It’s quite likely you’ll see them again. And also in the roles we’ve seen them in before… there’s Gwyneth Paltrow, Karen Gillan, Danai Gurira, Tessa Thompson, Don Cheadle, Jon Favreau, Anthony Mackie, Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany, and Evangeline Lilly. Oh… and Letitia Wright and Sebastian Stan and Tom Hiddleston.
Whew. Back to the numbers crunching. When early tickets went on sale a couple of weeks ago, Endgame smashed every record in sight. Its YouTube trailer views are off the charts. Audiences know this is the culmination of what we’ve paid billions of dollars for over the past decade plus. Yes, there’s a three-hour runtime which is unprecedented for the MCU.
I have a feeling that won’t matter when it comes to reaching a premiere level we’ve yet to witness. No other movie is daring to compete against it and most holdovers will be earning $10 million and less. In other words, multiplexes will clear a ton of real estate for this.
Initial estimates put Endgame around $250 million, but the buzz has this inching upwards. I believe that’s a correct assumption. While I don’t believe this will hit $300 million (as the rosiest projections suggest), a gross just north of $285 million seems feasible. If it achieves that mark, the endgame here will indeed set records.
Avengers: Endgame opening weekend prediction: $289.6 million
It’s Easter weekend at the box office and we have three new pictures opening. There’s The Darkness (TheCurseofLaLlorona), The Light (Breakthrough), and The Penguins (Penguins). Two of them will attempt to dislodge Shazam! from its two-week perch in the top spot. Yet this holiday frame will likely be known as “the one before Avengers: Endgame opened”. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
TheCurseofLaLlorona takes place in the Conjuring Cinematic Universe, but it hasn’t really been marketed heavily as such. Therefore I believe it will easily have the lowest debut of the franchise, but still manage to top the charts.
Breakthrough has the potential to do just that with faith-based crowds. I do question whether it can manage to achieve what HeavenIsforReal accomplished five Easter’s ago ($29 million for its five-day gross). Debuting on Wednesday, I’ll say mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when factoring in the extra days.
Penguins is the latest DisneyNature venture. The latest efforts in the series have earned between $4-$5 million for their starts. This opens on Wednesday as well, so I’ll put it a touch under. My $3.5 million Friday to Sunday projection ($5 million five-day) puts this outside my top five.
Shazam! should slide to third after two weeks in first position with Little coming in fourth. As for the five-spot, I’m saying CaptainMarvel. It should experience a smaller percentage decline than Hellboy and Dumbo. That could be good enough to take it from sixth to fifth before she joins her superhero pals next weekend in Endgame.
And with that, my take on the holiday weekend:
1. TheCurseofLaLlorona
Predicted Gross: $20.1 million
2. Breakthrough
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $22 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Shazam!
Predicted Gross: $14 million
4. Little
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. CaptainMarvel
Predicted Gross: $6 million
BoxOfficeResults (April12–14)
As expected, Shazam! retained its perch on top with $24.4 million, a bit lower than my $28.2 million prediction. The DC tale is sniffing the century mark after ten days with $94 million.
The Regina Hall comedy Little led four newcomers in second with $15.4 million, managing to exceed my $14 million projection.
The story of the weekend was the pitiful performance of Hellboy. The comic book based reboot bombed with just $12 million in third, under my $17.4 million take. This potential franchise pretty much ended before it began.
PetSematary was fourth in its sophomore outing with $9.7 million (I said $10.5 million). Total is $40 million.
I incorrectly had Dumbo outside the top five and it made $9.4 million to bring its tally to $90 million.
College romance After was eighth and topped most estimates with $6 million. I was much lower at $3.7 million.
Finally, Laika Animation has its worst opening by a lot. MissingLink, despite positive reviews, couldn’t find an audience. It took in just $5.9 million for ninth. I was considerably higher at $11.7 million.
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