Matt Damon is a Midwestern oil worker who treks to France to help his daughter (Abigail Breslin) on trial for murder in the crime drama Stillwater, out July 30th. Tom McCarthy (whose 2015 journalistic expose Spotlight) won Best Picture directs.
The pic recently debuted at the Cannes Film Festival to mostly positive notices. It stands at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes. Some reviews call it one of Damon’s finest performances and there’s even a chance he could garner awards buzz.
As far as box office prospects, I’m skeptical. I’m surprised Focus Features is putting this out in the heat of summer since this looks like more of a fall player. The counterargument could be that adults tired of sequels, sci-fi spectacles, family fare, and reboots will turn up. And certainly Damon’s star power helps.
That said, I suspect the verdict for Stillwater is a subpar start in the mid single digits.
Stillwater opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
Disney has certainly had luck basing movies on their theme park quantities before and they hope it continues on July 30th with the release of Jungle Cruise. The adventure pic (with a reported budget north of $200 million) pairs Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and Emily Blunt (fresh off her hit sequel A Quiet Place Part II) in the early 20th Century set tale. Costars include Jack Whitehall, Edgar Ramirez, Jesse Plemons, and Paul Giamatti. Jaume Collet-Serra, best known for Liam Neeson action flicks such as Unknown and Non-Stop or horror fare like The Shallows, directs.
As the studio has in 2021 with recent projects like Cruella and Black Widow, this will simultaneously premiere on Disney Plus for an extra viewing fee of $30. That strategy has been called into question in recent days considering the precipitous sophomore drop for Widow. Truth be told, the $30 doesn’t seem so high when factoring in families watching and that could negatively impact theatrical earnings.
The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise (and The Haunted Mansion to a lesser degree) has shown an appetite for these Mouse Factory ride based attractions turned films. The star power of Johnson and Blunt doesn’t hurt either and I wouldn’t be too surprised to see this swing to over $30 million. However, the streaming competition could easily prevent that and I’ll estimate high 20s as it sets sail at multiplexes and at home.
Jungle Cruise opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million
Blogger’s Note (07/21): I am revising some predictions from my original Monday. Taking Old from $22.8 million down to $19.8 million; Snake Eyes from $21.2 million to $17.2 million; and Space Jam: A New Legacy from $14.8 million up to $15.8 million.
We could see a real battle for the #1 position this weekend as M. Night Shyamalan’s Old and the G.I. Joe reboot Snake Eyes both debut. I have both nabbing similar grosses and you can peruse my detailed write-ups on each right here:
My estimates have the pair landing in the low to mid 20s and I’m giving Shyamalan’s latest a slight edge. Truth be told, either one of them could over or underperform so this lends some genuine suspense to the forthcoming results.
Assuming both manage to reach high teens to $20 million, that should mean Space Jam: A New Legacy will drop to 3rd following its better than expected debut (more on that below) with a dip in the 50-55% range. Black Widow, after experiencing a larger than anticipated sophomore drop, should fall to fourth position. There could be a close competition for the five spot between Escape Room: Tournament of Champions and F9. I’ll say Vin Diesel and his merry band of racers triumphs since Escape might lose around half of the opening audience from its lackluster start.
And with that, let’s do a top 6 this time around:
1. Old
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
2. Snake Eyes
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
3. Space Jam: A New Legacy
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
4. Black Widow
Predicted Gross: $12.9 million
5. F9
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Escape Room: Tournament of Champions
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (July 16-18)
In a surprise development, Lebron James and the Tune Squad dunked over Scarlett Johansson as Space Jam: A New Legacy opened ahead of projections with $31 million. That’s well above my $22.7 million estimate as the long in development sequel (which is also available on HBO Max) clearly brought in families and the nostalgic fans of the 1996 original.
Black Widow was anticipated to repeat at #1, but it fell to second with a massive 68% drop. The MCU stand-alone feature took in $25.8 million compared to my more generous $32.1 million prediction. The pic stands at $131 million as theater owners are griping about its simultaneous streaming showings on Disney Plus.
Horror sequel Escape Room: Tournament of Champions couldn’t emerge with an impressive start with $8.8 million. That’s about $10 million below what the 2019 original achieved and under my take of $11.4 million.
F9 held up better than I figured in fourth with $7.6 million (I lowballed it at $6.2 million). The four week tally is $154 million as it has become to second COVID era flick after A Quiet Place Part II to reach $150M+.
The Boss Baby: Family Business was fifth with $4.7 million (I said $5.2 million) and it stands at $44 million.
Blogger’s Note (07/21): I am revising my Old prediction down from $22.8 million to $19.8 million
What will be the ending to the next M. Night Shyamalan opening weekend story? That’s a tough one with Old, the filmmaker’s latest thriller debuting July 23rd. Based on a graphic novel, the pic places its cast in a beach setting where they inexplicably begin rapidly aging. That’s about the biggest nightmare Hollywood can imagine and Universal Pictures is banking that the horror will translate onscreen. The cast includes Gael Garcia Bernal, Vicky Krieps, Eliza Scanlen, Alex Woolf, Abbey Lee, Rufus Sewell, Ken Leung, and Embeth Davidtz.
Over the past six years, Shyamalan has experienced a career resurgence with his budgets getting lower and his grosses far exceeding the price tag. 2015’s The Visit took in a surprising $25 million out of the gate ($65 million overall domestic gross). 2017’s Split started off with a cool $40 million ($138 million haul) and its 2019 follow-up Glass earned $46 million over the long MLK frame with a $111 million eventual take.
In a summer filled with sequels and reboots, Old could have the advantage (despite being based on a property) of looking like something fresh. You could even say – what’s Old is new. The trailers and TV spots are pretty effective. It is competing for some of the same audience with the G.I. Joe franchise overhaul Snake Eyes. However, my gut says this could manage to overshadow it.
The aforementioned predecessors from the director kicked off in a less competitive timeframe. I still believe Old gets pretty close to the $25 million achieved by The Visit and gives it a solid chance at topping charts over Snake Eyes.
Blogger’s Note (07/21): I am revising from Snake Eyes prediction down from $21.2 million to $17.2 million
23 years after its release, Paramount Pictures has answered the call of the moviegoing masses by remaking the Brian De Palma action thriller Snake Eyes with Nicolas Cage. OK, not really. While Mr. Cage is looking for his stolen sow in a different theatrical release, the aforementioned studio is rebooting the G.I. Joe franchise.
This particular Snake Eyes arrives eight years after G.I. Joe: Retaliation (which followed G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra from 2009). It’s a whole new ball game with different players. Henry Golding is in the title role with a supporting cast including Andrew Koji, Ursula Corbero, Samara Weaving, and Iko Uwais. Robert Schwentke (no stranger to franchise work having done Insurgent and Allegiant from the Divergent series) directs.
The first iteration stemming from the Hasbro toy line impressed 12 years ago with a $54 million opening haul and eventual domestic gross of $150 million. Retaliation couldn’t match it with a $40 million premiere and $122 million overall take.
I’m not so sure there’s a major clamoring for this series to be revived. There’s also M. Night Shyamalan’s Old debuting against it and competing for some of the same sets of eyeballs. My hunch is that a low to mid 20s start is where this ends up and that likely means a stateside gross topping $100 million is unreachable. That could be bad news for Paramount as they are already planning sequels. Perhaps foreign grosses will make that a reality.
Snake Eyes opening weekend prediction: $17.2 million
The seemingly endless slew of summer sequels continues this weekend with Lebron James facing the Toon Squad in Space Jam: A New Legacy and the horror follow-up Escape Room: Tournament of Champions. You can peruse my detailed predictions on both part 2’s right here:
Can either newbie manage to top Marvel’s Black Widow after its record setting opening? Quite unlikely. I look for #23 and his animated competitors to manage a low to mid 20s start (it will also be available on HBO Max streaming).
As for Tournament, the first Escape Room easily outpaced expectations with a near $20 million debut. However, I think low double digits to possibly low teens is the target here.
Black Widow brought us to new heights in the post COVID world (more on that below). A drop in the 60% would generally keep it in line with other MCU entries and that means it shouldn’t have much trouble staying atop the charts in its sophomore frame.
Holdovers F9 and The Boss Baby: Family Business should keep the top five sequel heavy as has been the case all season.
And with that, here’s how I think it all shakes out:
1. Black Widow
Predicted Gross: $32.1 million
2. Space Jam: A New Legacy
Predicted Gross: $22.7 million
3. Escape Room: Tournament of Champions
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
4. F9
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
5. The Boss Baby: Family Business
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (July 9-11)
As anticipated, the two-week old record for F9 achieving the highest premiere in the COVID era was rather easily eclipsed by Scarlett Johansson’s stand-alone Black Widow saga. Yet its $80.3 million haul was on the lower end of projections. I forecasted slightly more at $83.3 million. Since The Avengers (2012) and the 18 MCU blockbusters that have followed, only Ant-Man and its sequel Ant-Man and the Wasp opened lower. However, we still are not in normal times and Widow is the first franchise entry to be simultaneously be available on Disney Plus (for a $30 fee). The studio was quick to point out that the streamer pulled in an additional $60 million through the distribution method.
Widow was the only fresh product in the marketplace as F9 dropped to second after two weeks parked in first. It made $11.4 million which was right on pace with my $11.3 million prediction. The three-week total is $141 million.
The Boss Baby: Family Business was third with $8.8 million (I said $8.6 million) for a ten-day tally of $34 million.
The Forever Purge held up better than I figured in weekend #2 with $7.1 million (I went with $5.1 million). It’s at $27 million overall.
Rounding out the top five was A Quiet Place Part II with $3.1 million compared to my $2.7 million projection. The horror sequel became the first COVID era title to reach $150 million domestically (something F9 and Black Widow will accomplish in short order).
Horror fans have been conjured, purged, and (umm) quiet placed already this summer with their scary sequels. Now it’s time to escape with the release of Escape Room: Tournament of Champions. The original $9 million budgeted effort took in a hefty $57 million back in January 2019 and Sony Pictures aspires to keep the gravy train rolling. The studio wished to capitalize on its momentum more quickly as this was originally slated for an April 2020 premiere before its COVID delay.
Taylor Russell and Logan Miller reprise their roles from part 1 as does director Adam Robitel. New cast members include Indya Moore, Holland Roden, Thomas Cocquerel, and Carlito Olivero. Two and a half years ago, Escape Room easily surpassed expectations with an $18.2 million domestic start. It even managed to only fall 51% in its sophomore frame and that’s quite solid for the genre.
Tournament of Champions could risk the weariness of moviegoers who’ve had plenty of fright fest follow-ups to choose from lately. I do think it will still manage low double digits.
Escape Room: Tournament of Champions opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my Space Jam: A New Legacy prediction, click here:
Lebron James will attempt to wear the box office crown when the long in development sequel Space Jam: A New Legacy dribbles its way into multiplexes on July 16th. Directed by Malcolm D. Lee, the live-action/animated sports flick pairs the 4-time NBA champ with Bugs Bunny, Daffy Duck, Porky Pig, and plenty of other Warner Bros toons legends. James is, of course, following in the Nike sneakers of Michael Jordan who starred in the 1996 original. Current basketball stars who either appear or lend their voices include Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard, and James’s Lakers teammate Anthony Davis. Don Cheadle, Sonequa Martin-Green, and Zendaya also join the party.
With a reported budget north of $150 million, Warner is hopeful that fans of the ’96 pic and a new generation of sports viewers will turn out. Legacy will also stream on HBO Max simultaneously so there is the risk that some families could just opt to watch at home.
Jordan’s foray into film a quarter century ago has developed staying power in subsequent years. There’s a nostalgia factor at work here. It doesn’t hurt that the sequel has been promoted endlessly over the past few weeks during the NBA playoffs. Jam will almost surely have to settle for #2 due to the sophomore frame of Black Widow. However, this should open right on pace with the number most associated with its leading man in the low to mid 20s range.
Space Jam: A New Legacy opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million
For my Escape Room: Tournament of Champions prediction, click here:
After an unexpected year and a half long break between their comic book blockbusters, the Marvel Cinematic Universe is back in theaters with the release of Black Widow. The Scarlett Johansson stand-alone title looks to break the two-week old record of F9 by achieving the largest post COVID debut thus far. My detailed prediction post on it can be found here:
Despite also being available (for $30) on Disney Plus, I do believe Scarlett and company will reach a low to mid 80s number out of the gate. That easily surpasses the $70 million that F9 accelerated to in late June. Unsurprisingly, Widow is the only new wide release out on Friday.
The rest of the top five will consist of sequel holdovers with F9 slipping to second and probably losing at least 50% of its sophomore frame audience. The drop might be slightly lower for The Boss Baby: Family Business while a 55-60% dip for The Forever Purge seems likely. A Quiet Place Part II should spend its final frame in the top five.
And with that, my take on the weekend that lies ahead:
1. Black Widow
Predicted Gross: $83.3 million
2. F9
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. The Boss Baby: Family Business
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. The Forever Purge
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. A Quiet Place Part II
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
Box Office Results (July 2-5)
It may not have been your typical summer fireworks at the box office, but it was still booming for Hollywood considering what we’ve recently come out of. F9 easily took the top spot for the second weekend with $29.1 million over the four-day holiday frame. That’s just below my estimate of $30.1 million as the ninth saga in the series is up to $122 million.
The Boss Baby: Family Business started in second and in line with most projections at $19.6 million (a tad under my $21.7 million take). The animated follow-up (which was also streaming on Peacock) opened at a far cry from the $50 million of the original.
The Forever Purge showed some wear and tear to this franchise with $15.7 million in third. I was close at $16.1 million. That’s just over half of what 2016’s The Purge: Election Year made in the same July 4th period.
A Quiet Place Part II was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.5 million) as its loud total stands at $145 million.
Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it spotted there. The $3.8 million earned in its third go-round brings it to $32 million.
Finally, Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway was seventh and I wrongly had it pegged at fifth (Cruella was 6th). The bunny hopped to $2.8 million and an overall $35 million tally.
Hitting theaters two weeks after F9 sprinted to the best opening weekend for films released post COVID, Black Widow looks to make that record short-lived. Originally slated for May 2020 before its pandemic delays, the 24th saga in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is a stand-alone showcase for Scarlett Johansson’s Avengers character. Cate Shortland directs with a supporting cast including Florence Pugh, David Harbour, O-T Fagbenie, William Hurt, Ray Winstone, and Rachel Weisz.
Widow, sporting a budget of at least $200 million, marks the longest delay between MCU pics that we have seen in over a decade. This is the creme de la creme of franchises where 11 of the past 18 titles have made over $100 million (or much more) in their debuts.
As has been the case with all pictures in this uncertain era, there are challenges Widow faces that could prevent that. For starters, its studio made the choice to simultaneously make this available for Disney Plus streaming. $30 will allow you to view it from the comfort of your couch (a cheaper proposition if buying for the whole family). Widow also doesn’t have the benefit of falling between two gargantuan Avengers features. That certainly helped 2019’s Captain Marvel which soared to $153 million for its start.
While the MCU is generally review proof, the positive reaction from critics won’t hurt. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is at 85%. And Johansson’s character (while not in the stratosphere of Iron Man or Captain America) is a familiar presence from The Avengers, its sequels, and more.
I can’t help but wonder if the Mouse Factory regrets making the Disney Plus decision. This will be a test to see how many fans will choose the home option. That said, I do believe Widow will top the $70 million that F9 reached. While $100 million may be out of range, a gross of $75-$85 million seems doable and that’s where I’m landing. My projection puts this just under what Doctor Strange (2016) and Thor: The Dark World (2013) achieved.
Black Widow opening weekend prediction: $83.3 million
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