Horror flicks continue to confound this box office prognosticator as Insidious: Chapter 2 had a massive opening this weekend with the second highest September debut of all time. The sequel to the 2011 sleeper hit took in $41 million, only $13 million less than the original did in its entire domestic run! I foolishly predicted the sequel would only earn $22.6 million. Oops. You can be assured that chapter 3 is being planned as we speak.

The Robert De Niro Mob comedy The Family also debuted above my estimate with $14.5 million. This is a pretty decent opening and bested my $11.2 million projection. However, with a troubling C Cinemascore grade, it will likely fall hard next weekend.

In its second weekend, Riddick dropped to third with $7 million, a bit below my $7.9M estimate. Lee Daniels’ The Butler took fourth with $5.5 million (in line with my $5.6M estimate) and We’re the Millers took the five spot with $5.4 million.

I incorrectly put the Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included at fourth with $5.9 million. It fell harder in its third weekend that I figured with $4.2 million. Be sure to check the blog this evening for projections on next weekend’s two new entries, Prisoners and Battle of the Year.

 

Two new entries join the box office fray this weekend and they’re likely to open #1 and #2. They are horror sequel Insidious: Chapter 2 and the Robert De Niro Mob comedy The Family. You can find my predictions for both pictures here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/insidious-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/the-family-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m estimating Insidious opens with about twice as much business as The Family. As for holdovers, this weekend’s #1 Riddick had a pretty good debut with $19 million. However, it seems destined to suffer a large dropoff in its sophomore weekend. The surprise hit Spanish comedy Instructions Not Included and Lee Daniels’ The Butler should experience relatively small declines.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Insidious: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. The Family

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. Riddick

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Instructions Not Included

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 28%)

5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook blog page Saturday with final results on the blog itself Sunday!

The Family may have a lot of talent behind it, but I’m pretty skeptical that it will do much business when it opens Friday. It’s got Robert De Niro once again spoofing his own image as a former Mob boss now in the witness protection program. This is the actor’s third time around with this type of role after the successful Analyze This and its much less successful sequel Analyze That. De Niro isn’t the only star repeating themselves in a Mob themed comedy. Michelle Pfeiffer, playing his wife, has done this before in 1988’s Married to the Mob. Tommy Lee Jones is involved as well, playing a CIA agent in charge of watching them.

Luc Besson is behind the camera and he’s certainly a well-regarded director with credits such as La Femme Nikita, The Professional, and The Fifth Element. Truth be told, this looks like a box office disappointment to me. Nothing about the trailers or TV spots is too interesting and this seems like the definition of a “wait for HBO” picture. It could surprise me, but I think The Family will struggle to find an audience. Older audiences may be ambivalent and younger moviegoers may be checking out the Insidious sequel instead.

The Family opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my prediction on Insidious: Chapter 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/insidious-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

In 2011, Insidious turned out to be quite a profitable picture to say the least. The horror flick starring Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne took in $54 million domestically and cost a mere $1.5 million to make. This Friday, we have the inevitable sequel.

James Wan returns to direct and in between the original and this follow-up, he directed this summer’s huge hit The Conjuring. It probably doesn’t hurt that TV spots say “from the director of The Conjuring.” Still, while the original was a hit – $54 million is not exactly an enormous gross. Horror flicks are notoriously tough to predict. In the past, I’ve tended to project under what they end up opening at. However, this was definitely not the case with You’re Next from a couple of weekends ago. I predicted it would earn $21 million in its debut weekend. It made $7 million. Oops.

Insidious: Chapter 2 has the advantage of being the sequel to a generally well-regarded film that is still pretty fresh in viewers minds. The possibility exists of a high 20s opening, but I’m thinking lower-mid 20s is more likely.

Insidious: Chapter 2 opening weekend prediction: $22.6 million

For my prediction on The Family, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/the-family-box-office-prediction/

As expected, Vin Diesel’s Riddick opened atop the box office this weekend. However, it debuted a bit lower than I figured. Diesel’s third go-round in this franchise made $18.7 million, below my $23.4M projection. Not a bad opening, but I along with many other prognosticators figured it would top $20M.

After three weeks at number one, Lee Daniels’ The Butler dropped to second with $8.9 million, just shy of my $9.5M estimate. The Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included continues to surprise and it earned $8.1 million for third place, well above my $5.6M projection. We’re the Millers was fourth with $7.9 million, right on par with my $7.8M estimate. Disney’s Planes was fifth with $4.3 million.

I incorrectly had One Direction: This Is Us at the five spot with $6.6 million. It slid much further in its second weekend with only $4.1 million for a sixth place showing. The post Labor Day weekend at the box office is usually a slow one and 2013 was certainly no different. Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have projections up for both of next weekend’s openers, Insidious: Chapter 2 and The Family.

The weekend after Labor Day marks the official start of the fall movie season and this is typically one of the most unexciting and lowest grossing weekends of the year. 2013 looks to be no different. There is only one new wide release, Riddick with Vin Diesel which marks the third entry in a franchise that began thirteen years ago. It’s been nearly a decade since the second film The Chronicles of Riddick. I made my prediction post for Riddick at the following link:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/riddick-box-office-prediction/

Riddick should easily win the weekend barring a shockingly low gross. As for the rest of the top ten, it’s all leftovers. I’m predicting the rest of the top five won’t even reach double digits. Of the holdovers, I would expect One Direction: This Is Us to have the largest drop. These types of concert pictures often have healthy debut weekends and significant falls in their second frame. Labor Day weekend’s surprise film was Instructions Not Included, which seemingly came out of nowhere grossing over $10 million over the holiday frame on only 347 screens. That marks the largest Spanish language pic opening ever domestically and it will likely have the smallest drop and remain in the top five.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Riddick

Predicted Gross: $23.4 million

2. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 36%)

3. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. One Direction: This Is Us

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Instructions Not Included

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Be sure to check back on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend for updates and Sunday on the blog for results!

This Friday there is only one new wide release coming to theaters. That would be David Twohy’s Riddick starring Vin Diesel, the third pic in this franchise. It’s been awhile since we’ve seen this character. Diesel’s second most-known (after Fast and the Furious) film series debuted in 2000 with Pitch Black and continued in 2004 with The Chronicles of Riddick. That second picture was actually considered a box office disappointment nearly a decade ago when it opened at $24.2 million but went on to earn a mild $57 million domestically.

If Riddick made $24 million in its domestic run, that would be considered pretty darn good today. Expectations are lower this time around. First, the film is budgeted at a modest $38 million. Second, this franchise certainly doesn’t have the audience anticipation that Vin’s other franchise does. Riddick may benefit from a weak marketplace as summer holdovers start to fade away and the big fall titles have yet to be released. To me, this is an example of a picture that could easily over or under perform. Anything over $25 million would be more than expected. Anything below high teens would be a letdown. Ultimately, I think this opens just under what its predecessor made in the summer of 2004.

Riddick opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million

We have now reached the end of the 2013 Summer Movie Season and for the third weekend in a row, it was Lee Daniels’ The Butler atop the box office. The historical drama took in $20 million over the holiday frame which was right on target with my $19.8M prediction. Gold star for me!

The concert film One Direction: This Is Us surpassed my expectations for a #2 debut with $18 million (above my $14.9M estimate). The hit comedy We’re the Millers continues to do brisk business with $15.9 million for third place (in line with my $15.1M projection). Disney’s Planes saw a solid increase for fourth place with $10.7 million (above my $9M estimate).

The true surprise of the weekend was the performance of the Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included. The pic opened at #5 with an incredible $10 million. This is notable for a couple of reasons: it’s the biggest Spanish language debut domestically ever and the movie was only showing on a small 347 screens. Due to the latter reason, Instructions wasn’t even on my radar screen to predict.

The other surprise (at least to me) was just how badly the two other newbies performed. The Ethan Hawke/Selena Gomez action flick Getaway managed just $5.5 million over the holiday time frame. I predicted it would do over double that number with $11.8M. Oops. The Eric Bana thriller Closed Circuit was DOA opening at #16 (ouch) with $3.1 million from Wednesday to Monday. I predicted it’d do $7.2M in that time frame.

Tonight on the blog, I’ll have my prediction for next weekend’s only new entry, Riddick with Vin Diesel. Stay tuned!

This coming weekend marks the official end of the summer movie season and there are three new entries to close it out: One Direction: This Is Us, Getaway, and Closed Circuit. Per usual, I made prediction posts on all three and they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/one-direction-this-is-us-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/getaway-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/closed-circuit-box-office-prediction/

Since it’s Labor Day weekend, my predictions are for the four-day holiday weekend. Traditionally on this weekend, titles that have been earning solid money experience not only small declines from the previous three-day weekend, but often increases. This bodes well for both Lee Daniels’ The Butler and We’re the Millers, which held the top spots this past weekend. I don’t anticipate that will change over Labor Day.

I am predicting two of the newcomers take #3 and #4 (I expect Closed Circuit to open well outside the top five, likely the #8 or #9 spot). As for the five spot, I believe Disney’s Planes will see a slight increase and remain fifth, leapfrogging last weekend’s #3 and #4, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones and The World’s End.

And with that, my predictions for the top 5 over Labor Day weekend:

1. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing an increase of 20%)

2. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing an increase of 15%)

3. One Direction: This Is Us

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

4. Getaway

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. Planes

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing an increase of 7%)

Be sure to check the Facebook throughout the long weekend for updates and Monday for final results!

While the Labor Day weekend is traditionally seen as a dumping ground for studios to put out pictures they have little confidence in, there’s a reason Focus Features is releasing Closed Circuit over this holiday frame.

Two years ago, over the same weekend, the studio had a better than expected opening for The Debt, a British thriller starring Helen Mirren and Sam Worthington. That film opened to a robust $12.8 million over the 2011 Labor Day weekend, which unexpectedly put it at #2 behind The Help. 

Focus is certainly hoping lightning will strike twice with another British thriller. This one stars Eric Bana and Rebecca Hall. That being said, the marketing for Closed Circuit has been way under the radar. Could it open with the same numbers as The Debt? It’s certainly possible, but I can also see it totally bombing on the same level that Paranoia did just a week ago with an awful $3.5 million debut.

Closed Circuit opens on Wednesday, unlike the weekend’s other debuts One Direction: This Is Us and Getaway. I just don’t buy that it’ll be a surprise mid-size hit like The Debt, but I don’t quite see it failing on Paranoia‘s level. So we’ll go somewhere in the middle.

Closed Circuit opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (over the Friday-Monday Labor Day weekend), $7.2 million (over the Wednesday-Monday opening)

For my prediction on One Direction: This Is Us, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/one-direction-this-is-us-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Getaway with Ethan Hawke and Selena Gomez, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/08/25/getaway-box-office-prediction/