Category: Box Office Predictions/Results

Box Office Predictions: March 7-9

Family audiences and action fans are the target audiences this weekend as the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire premiere in theaters. It is likely to be a very tight race between the two pics for the #1 spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Peabody edging out 300, but truth be told – it could easily go either way. As for holdovers, I would expect last weekend’s champ Non-Stop to lose a little less than half its audience. On the other hand, Son of God seems like the type of movie that is frontloaded with its target audience primed to see it during weekend #1. Therefore I expect a drop of over 50%. The competition from Peabody should cause the smash hit LEGO Movie to have its biggest drop yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

3. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

The results from this past weekend represent what I believe is my best weekend of predictin’ in the history of the blog (pat on back). Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop took top honors with $28.8 million – right in line with my $28.2M estimate. At 61, Neeson is still proving himself to be one of the most bankable action stars in the world.

Son of God was runner-up with an impressive $25.6 million, just below my $26.7M prediction. In third after three weeks at #1 was The LEGO Movie with $20.8 million – on pace with my $20.5M projection. The four spot was Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill in its sophomore weekend with $4.9 million, in line with my $5.1M estimate.

The only place I went wrong was not including The Monuments Men in the top five. It took the five spot with $4.9 million. I had Robocop in fifth but it was sixth my $4.5 million (on par with my $4.6M prediction).

So kudos to me for the weekend! Let’s see if my predictions for this upcoming frame are anywhere close.

I’ll have final results on the blog a week from today.

300: Rise of an Empire Box Office Prediction

300: Rise of an Empire is a big question mark as it arrives in theaters this Friday. Will the sequel bring in a large audience almost exactly seven years after the original was a surprise smash?

Zack Snyder’s 300 shocked prognosticators in 2007 with a gargantuan $70 million debut on its way to a $210 million domestic total. The conventional wisdom is this follow-up won’t come close to that kind of performance and I agree with that. Seven years is a long time between sequels and I’m skeptical that there’s massive pent up anticipation for this.

Having said that, the name brand alone should get it beyond the $30 million mark for an opening. I say should because I’m still a little unsure. A $25 million debut wouldn’t shock me… and that would considered a pretty major letdown for Warner Bros. This was originally scheduled to premiere last summer, but was pushed back. The original director Snyder returns as producer and cowriter with Noam Murro taking over behind the camera duties. Newcomers to the franchise Sullivan Stapleton and Eva Green headline with holdovers from the first Lena Headey and Rodrigo Santoro costarring.

300 should find itself in a battle with the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman for #1. This could certainly capitalize on the goodwill that the first generated and blast past $40 million. However, I’m going towards the low end of predictions and saying it just gets passed the $30M range.

300: Rise of an Empire opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million

For my Mr. Peabody & Sherman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

 

Mr. Peabody & Sherman Box Office Prediction

Based on a series of animated features from the 1960s that was highlighted on “The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show”, this Friday DreamWorks brings Mr. Peabody & Sherman to theaters. The film features the voices of Ty Burrell, Leslie Mann, Stephen Colbert, Mel Brooks, and others and will attempt to continue a hot run for animated flicks after megahits Frozen and The LEGO Movie.

The fact that family audiences have had plenty of solid choices lately could potentially hinder Peabody‘s grosses. For comparison sake, Fox’s The Croods debuted to $43 million in March of 2013. That would represent quite a victory for this if it could get that high. It’s possible, but I suspect Peabody won’t get past the $40 million mark. Reviews have been positive and that should help, but ultimately I think a premiere in the mid 30s is the most likely scenario here.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my 300: Rise of an Empire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 28-March 2

This final weekend of February/first weekend of March could provide a real showdown at the box office between Liam Neeson’s action pic Non-Stop and the Biblical pic Son of God. Both could be poised for healthy debut weekends and you can find my detailed predictions posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/

While my estimates put the newbies at spots 1 and 2 – if both underwhelm, it could open the door for a fourth week at the top spot for The Lego Movie. The rest of the top five is likely to be filled with holdover action flicks suffering pretty large drops.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $28.2 million

2. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $26.7 milion

3. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $20.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 21-23)

As for how I did this past weekend, The LEGO Movie did hold #1 for a third frame with $31.3 million, just below my $33.7M estimate. I vastly overestimated how well the rom com About Last Night would hold up in weekend #2. The Kevin Hart flick dropped a steep 70% to $7.5 million, well below my $13.6M prediction. Furthermore, I didn’t give enough credit to Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill. It debuted at second with an OK $12.2 million – well above my modest $7.7M projection. Newcomer Pompeii fared badly with a third place debut at only $10.3 million, below my $13.3M projection. In fourth was Robocop with $9.8 million, in line with $10.4M projection and rounding out the top five was The Monuments Men with $7.9M, under my $10.3M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday!

Son of God Box Office Prediction

Of the many dozens of box office predictions that I’ve made since I began this blog, I must admit that estimating a number for this Friday’s Son of God is among the most challenging.

Why? Well there’s several factors in play. There are already stories circulating that churches are buying mass quantities of tickets for their congregations. This would lead one to believe that its debut could be quite impressive. Any movie focusing on Jesus Christ and the Christian faith is destined to play well in the heartland but perhaps not as much on the coasts. The all-time top February opener was ten years ago with Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ, which earned $83 million in its first weekend.

Son of God shouldn’t come anywhere near that territory and this brings us to another factor in play. The movie itself is basically a cobbling together of scenes focusing on Jesus from last year’s History Channel miniseries “The Bible”. In other words, the vast majority of Son of God‘s material has already aired on a highly rated TV program. This fact begs the question: how much of the picture’s target audience are aware of this fact and will it lead to them perhaps skipping this?

Add it all up and this project from mega TV producer Mark Burnett and his actress wife Roma Downey has a very wide range of potential debuts. On the low end, we could see mid teens. On the high end… well who knows? This is precisely the type of project that could hugely exceed expectations and make something like $40 million out of the gate.

I will predict an opening in the mid to high 20s is most probable and it could certainly challenge both Non-Stop or The Lego Movie for box office dominance.

Son of God opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million

For my Non-Stop prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/non-stop-box-office-prediction/

Non-Stop Box Office Prediction

It was just over five years ago that Taken became a massive and unexpected hit and turned veteran actor Liam Neeson into a major action star. On Friday, we’ll see if his box office luck continues with Non-Stop. Neeson plays a federal air marshal dealing with a big ol’ crisis aboard an international flight. Julianne Moore and Oscar nominee Lupita Nyong’o costar.

Non-Stop has a rather modest $50 million budget that it should have no problem earning back and then some. Trailers for it have been pretty effective and the late February release date is good timing for action audiences hungry for something new.

Post Taken, Neeson’s star power has generated high teens to low twenties openings for Unknown and The Grey. I have an inkling that Non-Stop could go higher than that. By doing so, it should end the three week reign of The Lego Movie at #1. That’s if Son of God (the other newbie Friday) doesn’t open bigger and I’ll get to that one later today.

I don’t see Non-Stop debuting below $20 million and it wouldn’t shock me if it reached just above $30 million – but high 20s seems to be the most probable scenario.

Non-Stop opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million

For my Son of God prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/23/son-of-god-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 21-23

The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:

1. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Pompeii

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.

Pompeii Box Office Prediction

The $100 million budgeted gladiator epic Pompeii arrives in theaters Friday and this begs an obvious question: they invested $100 million dollars on this!?!?!

Director Paul W.S. Anderson is known for the Resident Evil franchise and here his attention turns to 79 A.D. for this action fest. The cast includes Kit Harrington from “Games of Thrones”, Emily Browning, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Kiefer Sutherland. The marketing campaign has been pretty muted for a picture of this budget. While FilmDistrict is maybe hoping for 300 type numbers, I don’t think Pompeii has a shot of that. Perhaps its 3D ticket prices could help, but I’m skeptical of that as well.

Pompeii has the look of a high-priced flop to this movie blogger. It could surprise me with high teens or beyond, but my gut says low teens.

Pompeii opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

For my prediction on 3 Days to Kill, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

 

3 Days to Kill Box Office Prediction

All of a sudden Kevin Costner is everywhere and in the last few months he’s appeared in Man of Steel, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and the upcoming football flick Draft Day. For this weekend it’s the action/thriller 3 Days to Kill which is helmed by McG, director of the Charlie’s Angels pics and Terminator: Salvation.

Costner certainly isn’t the box office draw that he was a couple of decades ago and the advertising for Kill doesn’t make it look like anything other than a generic action movie. My main question is whether or not this even gets past single digits in its debut. I have my doubts and don’t see a compelling reason why this would have a solid opening. If Liam Neeson were headlining this, I’d likely to be singing a different tune but since that’s not the case I’m going low here.

3 Days to Kill opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my prediction on Pompeii, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: February 14-17

The long Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend arrives with four new pictures looking for some audience lovin’. They are the 80s remake Robocop (out Wednesday), 80s remake About Last Night, 80s remake Endless Love, and Winter’s Tale. The latter three are all competing for the Valentine’s Day crowd while Robocop will skewer towards the dudes. You can find my prediction posts on all four here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/robocop-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/about-last-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/winters-tale-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/09/endless-love-box-office-prediction/

This quartet of flicks could all post decent numbers, but the story of the weekend is still likely to be The Lego Movie as it enters weekend #2. The animated pic opened to a massive $69 million generating the second largest February debut of all time. With terrific word-of-mouth, its gargantuan grosses should continue over the holiday frame.

Last weekend’s #2 The Monuments Men is likely to also experience the typical smallish decline that pictures experience on this particular holiday weekend.

I’ll branch my predictions out to the Top 6 and here’s the predictions for the weekend. Please note my predictions are for the Friday to Monday frame due to the holiday:

1. The Lego Movie

Predicted Gross: $54.2 million (representing a drop of 18%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million

3. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million ($36.8M predicted for Wednesday to Monday)

4. Winter’s Tale

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

5. Endless Love

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

6. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (February 7-9)

As already mentioned, The Lego Movie put together a HUGE BLOCKbuster opening (I’m sorry). Opening with $69 million, it went way beyond my $54.2M estimate. Coincidentally, my current prediction for the film’s second weekend is exactly what I predicted for its first.

Despite mostly negative reviews, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men was able to its translate its considerable star power to a solid $22 million debut, above my $16.1M prediction. I wrongly thought its weak reviews would hurt it and it didn’t.

As for the rest of the top five, Ride Along held up better than my prediction with $9.5 million (I said $6.9M) for third while Frozen was fourth with $6.8 million – right on pace with my $6.6M projection. Lone Survivor, which I didn’t predict for the top five, was fifth with $5.5 million.

The real loser over the weekend was Vampire Academy, which totally bombed with only $3.9 million – considerably below my $8.4M estimate.

As always, I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the weekend with final results Tuesday because of the long weekend!